Dream Start or Nightmare Start

Hi team, Calvin here and I tell you what. If you are one of those many people who never listen to me, then right now you are about to miss out big time.

I have been crunching the numbers using my best buddy (Excel spreed sheet) and have found some amazing things about the draw over the first five games.

Basically, I’ve ranked teams. Gold Coast gave up the most points last year so they carry the value ‘1’ whereas the Hawks gave up the least so they carry the value of 18. Which means, the lower the number the better.

The best start possible would mean you play the easiest team (1) and then 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th = 15pts.

Dream Start

As you can see there with the rainbow in the background. Fremantle have a dream run over the first five rounds. They play the Bulldogs, Gold Coast, West Coast, Kangaroos and Carlton. All those teams (excluding the Roos – ranked 6) were ranked as 1, 2, 3 and 4 in given up the most Fantasy points last year. 1+2+3+4+6 = 16pts. Everyone following me?

Then we have Brisbane, hello Rocky and Stef! Along with the big guns of the competition, Sydney and Hawthorn.

On the flip side of this, of course we need to see teams who don’t have the early run like the ones above.

nightmare start

This is where you don’t want to see high numbers. 18+17+16+15+14 equals the worst start possible (80pts).

West Coast meet Brisbane, Hawthorn, Richmond, Fremantle and Sydney over the first five rounds. The four hardest teams to score against last year were the Hawks, Richmond, Sydney and Port… and the Crows meet all of them in the first five rounds.

It’s not the be all and end of when it comes to selecting your teams. But if your 50/50 on a player then this might just swing you into a certain direction.

It’s been a pleasure.

24 Comments

  • Awesome stuff Calvin!

    Cheers for that! Defs need to be considered when picking players and could help when deciding between two.

  • great insight calvin was wondering what you would think of starting with luke parker hes a proven premo coming off a slow year im considering starting with him any thoughts appreciated.

    • oh and also whats ur opinion on malceski bouncing back this year with GC having all their mids back in the side should ease the pressure and allow him more freedom.

    • I wouldn’t consider him a “proven premo” at all – although he was doing well before injury struck. Is a handy POD but be wary of the Swan’s midfield strength. Possession will be shared with 5 or 6 other guns.

  • So what you’re saying is de Boer looks a bit more tempting

    • Calvin is all over his boy de Boer… this really does make me want to start with him over and get some quick cash out of him over the first few weeks. I think that’s how we need to play Fantasy Classic – aggressively.

      • Do you really think he is top 22? I love the way he goes about his game and tries but don’t think he is good enough. I am a massive Freo fan. I think he will be overtaken by Blakely, Weller, Langdon and Mzungu

    • Being a Freo man and a big fan of De Boer, I don’t think he is the Fantasy option you might be hoping for this year. His spot in the team was not assured last year and with a few kids and recruits coming through now, he’ll need to fight hard for a spot in the 22.

  • Worth considering but teams like Geelong and Gold Coast are going to be a lot stronger this year and teams like Essendon and Adelaide are going to be a lot weaker. So be careful how much you use this as a strategy.

    The other thing is although Geelong have a tough start according to this they have a very favourable draw.

    Good work none the less Calvin.

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    Only 2 spots left

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    Last year I did the same thing and we had a top 50 league keen for the same

    • Don’t think the crows will be ‘a lot weaker’. That’s very harsh in my opinion. Yes, they have a tough start but after that it’s not too bad. Always hard to beat at home too. I am a crows fan though.

    • Adelaide a lot weaker? We lost one best 22 player (albeit our best). What will make the Crows so much easier?

  • sweet

  • Great work Calvin. I love this sort of analysis.

  • Cheers Calvin, well thought out and devised. Keep it up

  • Thought process wss sound Calvin but I think Essendon has thrown the calculation off somewhat. Anyone playing against Essendon in the first 5 games will be pleased.

    • Awesome read Calvin. Bandi is right but as a Bloos supporter I can’t help but take a small amount of pleasure out of the Dons predicament. It’s nice to find there is a bigger cheat out there than the Bluebaggers.
      Any chance of plugging the Bombers new number into your spreadsheet and telling us the outcome?

  • Top stuff Calvin, except for the part where I wasn’t mentioned, sniff. Also your Warne Dawg mate gave out his team on the AFL website just now, do you reckon it’s safe to copy or is he tricking us again? His team looks way better than mine so I really want to copy

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    Top 500 coaches. Looking for a very competitive league

  • Heard these numbers on your podcast Calvin. I looked them up then and again now. By my reckoning Freo tally 35 points in the first 5 rounds. NM are 16 pts and West Coast are 13.
    Assuming Footywire are correct, these are the highest conceding teams:
    1. Gold Coast 1694.3
    2. Bulldogs 1605.1
    3. Carlton 1600.1
    4. Collingwood 1598.9
    5. Melbourne 1585.9
    6. St Kilda 1577
    13. West Coast 1546.9
    16. North Melb 1490.3

  • Great write up Calvin. Helps deciding on who to draft, will definately be watching the NAB to see how they’re fairing… will be interesting!