Mitch Robinson – Deck of DT 2016

Name: Mitch Robinson
Club: Brisbane
Position:  MID/FWD
AFL Fantasy: $504,000
AFL Dream Team: $527,800
Bye Round: 15
2015 Average: 91.0
2015 Games Played: 21
Predicted Average: 98

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Why should I pick him?

Like the mastermind advertisers who splash words like ‘SALE’ or ‘DEAL’ in neon lights on street corners, Mitch Robinson’s store has a sizeable ‘DPP’ sign hanging above it. But how often do we ever utilise the DPP of Premo forwards? Hands up if you never moved Dustin Martin out of your forward line last season? That’s a lot of hands.

While DPP is a nice buzzword that quickens the pulse and whets the palate, the real takeaway here is that we potentially have another full-time midfielder that we can stash incognito in our fantasy forward-lines. Robbo might not warrant much attention as a MID-only prospect, but in a line bereft of our usual DPP depth, he deserves your undivided.

Positional eligibility aside, Robinson’s resume comes with some heavyweight numbers to back up the intriguing cover page. While we all remember the days of Mitch as an elite FWD option in his earlier Carlton days (averaging 92 over 2011-12 seasons), we could be excused for having glazed over his blistering finish to his freshman year in the blue, gold and faeces. Numerically, that was a huge 110.1 average over his last ten starts, with a hefty 81-point score his basement over that scorching run.

As it always seems to be with Robinson, a single-minded approach to the footy was key to his fantasy success over that period, wrestling his way to 9.6 tackles per game in that time. While you might write that off as just a purple patch or disregard it due to the small sample size; I urge you to consider the fact that in the first half of 2015, Robinson was sitting off a flank, itching to get near the pill (or the man unlucky enough to be holding it). Then, due to a combination of floundering teammates, untimely injuries to prime movers and his own unwavering passion, Robinson found himself in the guts and the rest is history.

Besides, you don’t accidentally accumulate double-digit tackle figures regularly (6 times in last 10 games) without actually having a taste for it. If there’s one thing I’m sure of with Mitch ‘Waterboy’ Robinson, it’s that if there is a footy in his eyeline, he’s not going to let a mere opponent get in the way of him owning that pigskin.

Why shouldn’t I pick him?

There has to be some concern about Robinson’s role in the side, even if all the evidence from that latter stages of 2015 suggest he’s a natural follower. There have been stages throughout his career where he’s played as a high half-forward and even as a defensive forward (gasp!), and evidently that’s where the Lions saw him early in his career on the upper East Coast. Re-signing for a further two years is a positive sign; but are they looking to lock up a chop-out forward, or a key part of their on-ball unit?

A change of personnel often shakes up the midfield rotation, and there’s every chance that imports in Bastinac and Bell are preferred in the clinches. However, with Aish and Redden out of the door, I’d suggest where he sits in the pecking order isn’t strongly influenced by the revolving door of midfield talent at the Lions. But hey, I never thought Donald Trump would be a serious shot at becoming President of the World, so track his NAB Challenge role for further clues and/or confirmation.

Once you move past the role, you’re left with the price-tag. Is north of $500k the kind of cash you’re willing to part with for this one-minded battering ram? It’s a lot of money to part with – enough to make him the 9th most expensive forward – if you’re not 100% certain he’ll be uncaged as he was in late 2015.

Deck of DT Rating.

KING – There’s no question that he’s not quite in the Dustin Martin echelon of premium FWD’s, but Robbo’s certainly worthy of consideration alongside other forwards with question marks hovering over them at a similar price. Barlow, Bennell, Motlop, and Greene come to mind, and I’d argue that of that lot, Robinson might have the most value and least uncertainty.

Given that Robinson has the potential to push his average up towards the century mark, I’ll be strongly considering him for my F3/F4 and, ultimately, his NAB Challenge GPS will be a huge factor in decided whether he’s worth half a million of the salary cap at Tbetta Than You.

Mitch Robinson is...

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14 Comments

  • Robbo is the waterboy.
    Cant believe i never realized before.
    Classic!

  • Dont get carried away by a couple of good scores towards end of last season! Its a no for me

  • Watch in the nab cup for his role. Currently not going near him

    • If it was a couple Id be weary, but he managed to pull out 10 of the same type of performances so I am now duly interested, but I can definetely see where youre coming from as it is quite a risk.

  • It was an amazing back half of the season and Tbetta write the most compelling “Why should I pick him?” argument. It is that unknown – which includes a more settled/fit BL outfit.

    Those tackles though… and epic Waterboy reference. I will be picturing this every time our Tassie boy lays a tackle in 2016.

  • Robinson is a tough one. If he was in a midfield with less depth he’d be a great set and forget selection. I’m still probably going to pick him but he’s a risky selection.

    He did most of that great scoring when Beams was injured, Hanley was playing forward mostly as he was at 50% fitness last season, Rich was playing half back and playing injured, Rockliff only had about 4 weeks at full fitness, Bastinac wasn’t in the team. All these guys will play significant midfield time in 2016, as well as Christnesen, Zorko and Bell who will probably play 5-10 minutes a quarter or so in midfield.

    Where does he fit in? I think he gets the 4th or 5th most midfield time, 50-60% of the game maybe, just because he was so good at the end of last year. Since he’s come to Briabane he improved his fitness and can play in his water boy style for an entire game now, hence the 110 average. Just look at these scores- 92, 100, 90 then AFTER Beams has shoulder surgery Robbo scores 114, 118, 115, 166, 81, 114 and 111. He didn’t score terribly as a forward either. That should be enough for him to get to a 90+ average and in my team.
    Source: keen Lions supporter

  • Green Ninja has a “No D1ckhead Policy” in his team
    Ever since he whacked Fletcher on his sore hand repeatedly I vowed never to have him anywhere near my Fantasy Landscape
    Plus can’t see any room for him in the midfield if all fit and firing (eg fit Beams) and Bastinac/Bell new. Lets be honest, Aish is a non factor as he couldn’t get a game and when he did mostly around HFF.

  • Lock. Piced him up a week before his 160 and was so a lock. Averaged the most B+F points a game for my team last year as well.

  • What’s with the blue gold and faeces reference ?
    As a lions fan I can tell you that Adcock and Bewick were not played around the coalface so that was a bit surprising to read.

    • Going off memory with Adcock/Bewick, at least in Round 1. Remember wondering why Aish wasn’t getting more mid time, and that’s the way they lined up iirc.

      And as for the reference, it’s just colourful language.

  • Only got those big scores cause Beams was injured

  • In my UF keeper/dynasty league, I traded Josh Kennedy (WCE) for Mitch Robinson and two 3rd round picks at the start of 2015. It was looking awful halfway through the season but with a bit of luck turned out awesomely.
    I’d back him in again this year of an 85ppg minimum regardless of roles or injuries.