Callum Sinclair – Deck of DT 2016

Name: Callum Sinclair
Club: Sydney
Position: Ruck / Fwd
AFL Fantasy: approx $415,000
AFL Dream Team: $433,700
Bye Round: 14
2015 Average: 74.1
2015 Games Played: 17
Predicted Average: 80 – 90

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Why should I pick him?

New year and new opportunities await Callum Sinclair. Consistently playing 2nd and 3rd fiddle to Nic Nat and Lycett over at West Coast, Sinclair has moved to Sydney in search of more game time. So why should he also move into your Dream Team considerations?  Here’s 5 possible reasons and 1 slightly crazy theory.

First, Job Security. This has always been an issue in Sinclair’s career but not anymore. With the retirement of Mike (did you know he is Canadian?) Pyke, Sinclair is a 26 year old ready made Ruckman who has found a team in Sydney who need a ruck! He will perfectly compliment Tippett as he also has the ability to swing forward and contribute to the scoreboard after kicking 13 goals last year. (fun fact: he played as a full forward throughout his junior years)

Second, Price. While we are yet to have Sinclair’s exact price this season, we can assume he’ll come in priced at his 74 average. But if he is able to push his scoring average up to 80 or 90 then you’ve got the extra $50K – $100K that you’d have spent on that ruck to spend elsewhere.

Third, No more Vest! In the past we would be very hesitant in picking a ruckman from a team with multiple rucks as they would generally be the first player subbed when coaches needed to inject more speed into the game. But with the vests gone in 2016, we can safely pick these players and know that even if they’re having a down game, they’ll still be a chance to keep the DT scores ticking over.

Fourth, Cover. This year we’re finding a lot of the best ruck men are sharing the round 15 bye, Sinclair could be a nice point of difference with his round 14 bye to give you a bit of ruck cover.
Sinclair also has the dual position ability giving you a chance to switch him between fwd/ruck which could be useful if partnered with another to save you a trade if injury strikes.

Fifth, Scoring potential. Last year saw Sinclair score over 80 points 8 times, including 103, 105 and an impressive 21 disposal, 29 Hit Out, 129 point game against Sydney in round 17. Not a bad effort at all! By picking Sinclair you’ll be hoping that more responsibility at the Swans will lead to him reaching these scores more often.

Which leads to the slightly crazy theory.

If we take a look at Sinclair’s lowest scoring games last year we can notice a slight trend. They came against teams with very physically dominant Ruckmen. 36 pts against Goldstein at North Melbourne, 53 pts against Jacobs at Adelaide, 66 pts against Sandilands at Fremantle and 59 pts against Gawn at Melbourne.

While at first glance this could seem like Sinclair really struggles against the bigger rucks in the comp. However, I’d like to suggest a different theory.
Sinclair was not West Coast’s first choice ruck. In these games against the bigger ruckmen, West Coast prefer to use Nic Nat more to try jump over these giant rucks to negate their influence. Meaning that Nic Nat spends more time on the ball and Sinclair would see a lot less action in these games.
This is my reasoning behind thinking that 74 is not a true reflection of what Sinclair can average.

As Sydney’s first choice ruckman and after his first full preseason in a while, who know’s what he’ll be capable of!

Why shouldn’t I pick him?

Because he is a massive gamble! That crazy theory could just be that and maybe he does really struggle against larger ruckmen.

There are also question marks over his durability with him never playing a full season without injury.

Even at his possible approx $400kish price point there are still rucks around him who could be seen as a safer gamble.

Honestly I think the biggest reason to not pick him is the scary ‘unknown’ factor. There is too much about Sinclair that we just don’t know at this stage.
We don’t know if he’ll get the majority of ruck time or have to split it evenly with Tippett. We don’t even know if Sinclair has the tank or is capable of running out a full game as a solo ruckman or how he’ll score in that scenario. We don’t know how he will fit into his new side and we don’t even know if his body can hold up to a fulltime AFL ruckman’s season.

As far as ‘risky picks’ go, these reasons put Sinclair right up there!

Deck of DT Rating.

JACK – Risk vs Reward. At the end of the day, that is what you’ll be weighing up when considering Sinclair.
The plus side to taking this risk is that as long as Sinclair is lining up as Sydney’s first choice ruck, I can’t see him dropping too much cash in the first few rounds while giving us a look at how he’ll go. But if he doesn’t perform better than his average then you will be burning a trade to get him out early.
I’m thinking Sinclair could honestly be one of those players this year who’ll set up your season or sends you into a depression spiral.
Honestly, Sinclair is not in my team at this moment. He is most certainly on my ‘wait till NAB and see’ list.

What does Callum Sinclair average at the Swans?

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16 Comments

  • I think he’ll improve his output at the Swans, but is it enough? I’m not sure. I think he can average somewhere in the low 80s. Has to be the worry with role. I believe he will be the go-to ruck, but what exactly does Tippett do? Share the role? He was epic at the end of last season.

    Just a little too much of the unknown for me.

  • it’s true. he does get monstered by the big tucks.

    his rucking in general is pretty average. every time he gave nicnat a chop out, you could clearly feel the momentum shift.

    pass.

  • Sinclair will be a forward who will relieve in the ruck when Tippet goes forward – not the other way around. He will NOT be the Swans no 1 ruckman. Tippet showed at the end of last year that he is far more valuable to them as a ruckman than as a key forward when he averaged 107 points in the last 6 games.
    consequently I feel that tippet will increase his average from last year’s 80 to at least 95. Sinclair’s will increase to no more than 80 and that’s only if he kicks goals whilst forward. Paying the extra $33K for Tippet is a much better option imo however I am only playing him as a forward – not a ruckman.
    As a Swan supporter, I truly hope that Sinclair is as good a second ruckman to Tippet as the Canadian was to Mumford in 2012.

    • That isn’t what will happen at all Bandicoot. Sinclair will play no. 1 ruck like the article above says. Look up what the Swans said at the time of the trade. They were happy to have a ruck who could change with Tippett, with Tippett playing mostly forward and Sinclair mostly ruck. Also, Pyke (a ruckman) played the last 6 games of 2015, so Tippett scored those big scores while playing as the second ruck. Sinclair should average in the 80s as he’ll be playing 30-40% more game time in the ruck, Tippett might improve if he is more consistent.

      • Each to their own, Mars. I am still confident that Tippett will start the season as the Swans no 1 ruckman. Even though Pyke did play in those last 6 matches, Tippett was clearly doing most of the ruckwork in those games. If Buddy is up and firing (as we hope) Tippett becomes a waste as the key forward.

    • Interesting thoughts on Tippett there Coots. Sinclair has been a lock for me since he was traded to Sydney, however your theory on Tippett got me doing some research. When you look at last season as a whole, but particularly those last 6 games hitout numbers for Tippett and Pyke were almost equal. In games where Buddy either didn’t play or played poorly, Tippetts numbers sky rocket, particularly in those last 6 games. It is the absence of Buddy that boosts Tippetts numbers and not ruck time. I am leaving Tippett well alone and will almost certainly start with Sinclair, but I will watch for your theory with interest during the NAB silly season.

  • TEAM NAME: Hammers Team. (AFL Fantasy 2016)
    Used: $9,982,500 (99.8%), Remaining: $17,500 (0.2%) On Ground: $8,915,400 (89.2%), On Bench: $1,067,100 (10.7%)
    Expected Total: 1726, Site Expected Total: 1726
    Def: H.Shaw (96.20), R.Laird (92.55), M.Hibberd (79.57), Z.Williams (64.74), E.MacKenzie (42.86), R.Bonner (21.93) (B.Rice (24.59), M.Hartley (22.60))
    Mid: G.Ablett (105.06), T.Rockliff (104.70), A.Treloar (104.16), B.Gibbs (81.19), J.O’Meara (75.05), T.Liberatore (62.08), B.Crouch (58.21), J.Anderson (46.46) (N.Freeman (26.76), J.Jansen (22.60))
    Ruc: S.Martin (114.10), C.Sinclair (78.43) (M.Cox (22.60), D.Currie (22.60))
    Fwd: L.Montagna (109.04), S.Johnson (86.62), C.Bird (58.05), M.Wright (55.88), C.Petracca (43.04), D.Wells (32.28) (D.Rioli (29.26), H.Balic (21.93))

    Thoughts on team:

  • Way tooo much risk, would rather go for two set and forgets like Jacobs/Martins/Mummy/Goldy ect rather then take a punt

  • Was a lock for me, however further research (predicted best 22s) see him as the second ruckman with Tippett the first. As a number 1 ruckman, he could average 90, however, as a number 2 ruckman, low 80s is more likely. This doesn’t justify his price. Will wait and see in the Nab where he will play, but at this stage, it’s a pass

  • you also seem to forget that Buddy Franklin is the catalyst in Tippett’s score also. Yes. he was 2nd ruckman but with the likes of Parker and Buddy out of the team and Sam reid not able to play through injury, that helped Tippet’s score Catapault. Tippett does score at least a goal a game when he plays so his score involvement helps toward his score,but when Buddy is playing, he is the no.1 forward target for the Swans, Tippett 2nd ruckman and 2nd big forward. Sinclair has been picked up to replace Pyke as the main ruckman with Tippet as his respite, where Sinclair can rest up forward as the 2nd big . Will he increase his output to over 74 average ?? Hell yeah !! is he a 2nd ruckman in your team or a swinging forward ?? At this stage if you are going to have Sinclair in your team. he should be in the FWD line and not as a 2nd set and forget ruck.

    • Fwd line? Around his price, there is: Billings, S. Gray, Hall, Taylor and Hogan. These five are more likely to average 90+. If you pick him, it’s as a second ruckman. And he is not set and forget. Maybe, in a perfect world where he averages 110+, however, he will be seen as a stepping stone to a true ruck premium

      • I still like the security of having either a Tippett (or Sinclair) in the forward line as security if one of my 2 ruckmen are missing for a week or so. If West gets reasonable game time and can score 50+ that will alleviate this issue I suppose.

  • There are some ludicrous expectations being thrown around here…