AFL Draft 2015 and Fantasy

The AFL Draft happened tonight in Adelaide and with it, we have a bit of an idea what we might be paying for some of the gun fantasy relevant draftees.

Last year Paddy McCartin went at number one and started at $303,000 followed by Christian Petracca ($297,000), Angus Brayshaw ($294,000), Jarrod Pickett ($290,000) and Jordan de Goey ($285,000). It took until pick 33 until we found out first draftee under $200K and then to Harry Dear at pick 58 at the ‘basement’ price of $142,000.

We’re not sure how it all looks for next year with pricing, but the further the ball-magnets drop, the cheaper they will be for us in the salary cap games.

The highest priced rookie will be Jacob Weitering who went to Carlton. We’re not going to expect too much from him from a fantasy perspective (averaged just 42 at the U18 Championships), but the defender is a good chance to get games early. Josh Schache went to the Lions at two. As a forward, he was the best fantasy performer for Vic Metro averaging 76 points – boosted by a 119 in the second week.

The lad we love, being from Tassie, is Kieren Lovell. Maybe his heritage isn’t the only thing we love… his ball-winning ability is the major interest for our fantasy hearts. Averaging 104 at the U18 Champs, the most of any player, thanks to collecting an average of 22.7 kicks, 12.3 handballs and 8 marks, means he has a game we want in a player. Landing at the Hawks was probably the worst thing for us as fantasy coaches – and it would have been nicer if he did slide a bit more… but with his game, he still might be worth a look at his inflated price. Let’s hope the jet gets a chance.

Those going early are probably the most likely to play – especially if they end up at clubs where there is a chance they might make an immediate impact. The issues is that we don’t really want to be paying over $200K for a first year player especially when job security is obviously a bigger factor than scoring ability.

TOP AFL FANTASY AVERAGES FROM U18 CHAMPIONSHIPS 2015 (DRAFTEES)

  1. Kieren Lovell MID – (HAW – pick 22) – 104 points
  2. Jacob Hopper MID – (GWS – pick 7) – 91 points
  3. Jade Gresham MID – (STK – pick 18) – 86 points
  4. Ben Keays MID – (BL – pick 24) – 85 points
  5. Luke Partington MID – (WC – pick 28) – 76 points
  6. Josh Schache FWD (BL – pick 2) – 76 points
  7. Eric Hipwood DEF (BL – pick 14) – 71 points
  8. Mitch Hibberd DEF/MID (NM – pick 33) – 69 points
  9. Darcy Parish MID (ESS – pick 5) – 65 points
  10. Harley Balic MID (FRE – pick 38) – 64 points

Click here for link to Under 18 fantasy scores from Footy Prophet.

Remember, U18 numbers aren’t the be-all-and-end-all of players. We will be keeping an eye on the players who have slid in the draft. Rhys Mathison ended up at Brisbane with pick 39 which should make him cheap. The midfielder averaged 61 at the champs. Tassie defender/midfielder Mitchell Hibberd (69 ave) will be worth looking at if indeed he ends up with DEF status.

Like in 2015, next year we will have plenty of players with experience coming in at under $200K (stay tuned as we look at them over the pre-season). Also, there are a few mature-aged draftees that will be worth considering as well. Mitch Brown for the Bombers? He was good as a ‘replacement’ in the NAB Challenge.

Let us know your thoughts on the draftees. Which players do you think will make an immediate impact and be a chance for our fantasy teams in 2016?

NOTE: We will have a new podcast coming very soon discussing the draft and the fantasy news out of it… as well as other pre-season stuff.

18 Comments

  • Shane Yarran is definitely worth a look. 26 years old and kicks a lot of goals. Been a WAFL gun for a couple of years and will be basement price. Has to get into a pretty good side though. The Dockers could find a spot though I reckon

    • Particularly if there’s a re-shuffle – e.g. Chris Mayne goes and plays back which he can do (FWD/DEF?), and they get Yarran up front…
      Definitely coverage if (or when) the great Pav gets injured.

  • Warnie
    Surely the pick of the draft for us all is Mitch Brown
    With NAB Cup scores of 103/74/65, he”ll average around 70
    Hopefully will be DPP as a DEF/FWD so will be ideally match with Ciaran Byrne
    Hopefully he’ll be priced under $200k???
    Good luck to everyone in 2016

    • Love the Mitch Brown pickup for the Bombers… and has to be in the mix for fantasy as he’ll be very cheap. I’ll give an estimate of his price on Friday night’s podcast.

  • Just saying, the U18 averages Footy Prophet have there aren’t quite accurate. You can calculate them for yourself if you look at player stats on then AFL website, but to clear up a few averages:

    Div 2:
    Lovell – 127.7
    Keays – 100.3
    Hopper – 100
    Hibberd – 87.7

    Div 1:
    Gresham – 104.8
    Partington – 85.33
    Parish – 77.5
    R Clarke – 75
    Balic – 77.6 (deflated by one low score)
    Mathieson – 71.66

    I’ve been watching the U18s all year, and the players to really watch out for are:
    Lovell, Mills, Hopper, Keays (nearly a lock), M Kennedy (can play early), Tom Phillips (overager, versatile ball-magnet), Partington, Mathieson (slider, will be very cheap), Ryan Clarke (nearly a lock for me), Mitch Hibberd (if DEF/MID, should be a lock for rd 1), Clayton Oliver (massive frame, can come straight into the side), Sam Menegola (massive mature-ager), and of course, my absolute favourite – Jade Gresham (little, but can play round 1 and will win tonnes of the footy from the get-go)

    • Thanks mate. Appreciate that. We’re hoping we can get them posted officially (from Champion Data) on the AFL site soon… I looked at those stats, but as they were missing hitouts, I didn’t bother. Saw Footy Prophet’s work and ‘trusted’ that they were right.

      Appreciate those notes there… we’ve got a podcast coming up on Friday night and I reckon we might give you a shoutout for that epic info!

    • Keays was nearly a lock for me after his 2014 u18s champs – I was surprised to see that he wasn’t draft eligible then

      virtually a lock for 2016 for me, although that Brisbane side might be hard to break into (given that he’s a midfielder and they’ve got thousands of them)

      • He will play round 1. Whether he lines up at half forward, on the wing or in the guts, I reckon he’ll walk straight into the team. Will produce from the get-go and score heavily.

  • So just wondering whether you have found out if DT Live drawing board will be here again. Thanks Warnie

    • Monty over at fanfooty has had his fanplanner up for awhile now. Hasnt updated with the final draft positions from last night as yet, tho you cant really expect anyone to do that :P

      • With lists being (mostly) settled come Friday arvo, I reckon Chad won’t be far away with his Drawing Board… and Monty will be set up with all of his names.

        Price/position leaks will start mid-December I believe.

        • as I posted before, the DrawingBoard prices are pretty much confirmed (and have been for a while)

          it’s just the new draftees (obviously no form guide) and the retirees that need changing from it, as well as the updated DPPs (but that gets changed as and when)

          I’d say that a December 1 release is likely

          • thnaks. ive been using the fan footy one and ive noticed daniel wells is well rookie priced. absolute lock if fit. so to Daisy Thomas at under 300k but looking like a sole mid. also surprised to see on fan footy that no gray, bennel, swan or dahlhus named as forwrads however martin a sole fwd and michael Barlow a fwd/mid. fan planner is very good but love the predictions you can make on dt live. keep up the good work.

          • I’ve got Wells coming in at approx $165,600

            Pure speculation on those DPPs. I think Swan will hold FWD status. Barlow won’t get FWD status. Season heatmap and associated numbers show him as a midfielder.

  • thanks AJ, will start that straight away

  • Cant login to fan planner on any other devices as it says it has sent me a confirmation email but it hasnt. have tried to get it to work with like 5 accounts but wont send me any emails?