The Friday Scramble: Round 19

FridayScrambleAnother week, more season ending injuries! This time to Beams and Wines. Hope you still have some trades left in SC and RDT to cover these guys. On top of that we have our issues with selection of course that we need to deal with.
But the most exciting thing this week is that in both AFL Fantasy (for default leagues) and RDT we are in our last round before we hit the finals! So you need to get yourself ready and make sure you are in the best position you can be leading into the first week of finals next week. Of course if you are a Supercoacher, then you are already in the finals.  I have a comment on that too coming up today. But hey, enough preamble, let’s Scramble!

Can I have a Wines and Beams?

Wonder how that would taste, Beam and Wine? I am sure some people have had that as they look to drink every last drop as a big night comes to an end… but anyway, enough of that.

So these guys are both now out of their respective teams for the rest of the year. Clearly you need to trade them. But you need to be careful about this trading, particularly in RDT and SC. In these forms of the game with the limited trades, make sure that you aren’t trading in to trouble. By this I mean take a look at the teams that have the better run home and try and pick them. But also be wary of teams that may rest players (yes I am looking at you here Ross Lyon). For example Freo are clear on top and have some great options like Mundy and Lachie Neale. However, in Round 22 (SC Grand Final week and RDT and AF Prelim Final week) they play Melbourne at home. Not sure about you, but this screams alarm bells for me. We know that Ross has a history of resting players. At this stage they appear to be the only team likely to pull this kind of stunt as everyone else is still battling for their positions.

This is the one thing that kind of goes against the reasoning for Supercoach to bring its’ final to be the second last round of the season to avoid the resting. It won’t always be the last round where resting will occur. I mean, this year Freo may rest in that home game against Melbourne and then have a good hit out before the finals against Port. Or they could go the other way and rest players instead of travelling to Adelaide in round 23.
Similarly, Hawthorn may choose to rest guys like Mitchell and Hodge in round 22 when they play Brisbane in Launceston rather than Carlton in round 23 at the G. And to throw a third example in, if WC are locked in second and can’t move with two rounds to go, they may not send a full team to Adelaide to play the Crows.

So what I am saying is I understand what the boffins at Supercoach are thinking with their plan, but I just don’t think we can insulate our games from this sort of resting.  Anyway, enough seriousness from me.

So… who do we look for that has a good run? Well have a look at these tables from our great mate @nixtrader they tell us that Richmond, Port, Bris and Sydney are most likely to post tons whereas Bris, Rich, Syd and Port are the ones that are likely to have the most points.  The colour coding is such that those in green are are in the top 6 in that category year to date, orange is the middle 6 and red is the bottom 6.  So as you can see Richmond are in red in both, but are up the top as their draw opens up for them towards the end of the season, they have Adelaide, GCS, Collingwood, Essendon and NM.  Sydney have a great run with Geelong, Collingwood, GWS, Saint Kilda and GCS.  Catch Nix on twitter if you would like to chat to him about it, he is great at this stuff so I thank him for this info.
Round 19 Best 100s Round 19 Best Points

 

Finals and trading strategies

Whilst looking at trading and finals, here are my two cents worth on trading as we lead into the finals for the newcomers to the game and our site.

The following are my thoughts on ladder position (in your most important league) and what that could mean for your trading strategy this week in RDT and AF.

  • Locked in top four and can’t move. In this circumstance you should be trading this week with a view to making your team stronger next week. That means you may even do a double downgrade this week as it won’t matter what happens in your matchup. You would then have heaps of cash for two big upgrades next week.
  • Top four but could be dislodged. Trade with a view to next week, but don’t hurt your team to the point where you may actually lose your matchup this week. Top four is far better than fifth to eighth.
  • Top eight locked. If you are in reach of the top four then go for it, if you can’t get up that high then as with those locked in the top four, trade to make your team better for the first final as that will be an elimination final that you can’t afford to lose.
  • Just outside the eight. Go for broke! You can’t win it if you aren’t in the eight! So trade to do what you can to get the advantage on your opponent. You might want to look for a unique premium that your opponent doesn’t have that might just tip the scales in your direction.
  • Outside the eight and can’t get in. Well not much you can do here, but you can win the bottom half of the league (the infamous Tit-Ed Cup), so go for it!

Where’s Fyfe?

Well Nat is out again with this groin injury. I would love to trade him out in AF but I have other issues (my team has struggled this year). In RDT and SC you may want to trade him out if you have the trades available, but really he should be back next week and with two weeks off now I can’t see him having another rest from here on out. Personally I will be holding him in both those formats to conserve my trades. However it is up to you.  If you have more than five trades in those formats I would say go for it. (so you can deduce that I have less than 5!)

Selection Table

Massive news that Lance Franklin is out again with that dodgy back! But even bigger news is that our old mate Glenn Glenn is out again having been omitted! Matthew Leuenberger is also out, but he was one of the knowns with Wines and Beams who are injured and Stevie J who is suspended. Other than that the fantasy gods were pretty good to us (unless you are a Zac Dawson owner as he is suspended also).

On the ins side of the ledger we see Riewoldt back.  Clancee Pearce is back, but may not make the cut and if he does my money is on a vest. Cam McCarthy is back, but also extended bench so probably won’t make the cut!

Other than that it is a pretty clean selection for us this week.  So rejoice!

#AskDunny

Thanks DK for that one, as I have mentioned in the section above, this really comes down to your team’s position heading into the finals.  So really both of them are valid options in AFL Fantasy. If you are in RDT, then it really comes down to number of trades left.  If you are 4 or less I would say hold until you need them.

Mate I reckon out of that lot I would be trading out Laird and Kruezer to Shaw and Jacobs. The other thing you could do is Broadbent instead of Laird. I like McVeigh, but Heater is just playing so well at the moment.

Must say I like those trades.  Jelwood was great last week and we know that he tends to go off as we get closer to the end of the season. Lachie Neale has been a bit up and down over the past few weeks, but he does have some big scores in him when he gets going.  I think he is a safer bet for you than Oxley at the moment.

Things To Remember

  • Finals are this week for Supercoach.
  • When trading in, be really sure about the player.
  • Check Calvin’s Captains this week to see who has the number one position!

I hope your team does better than the Aussie Cricketers did last night with the bat (at the time of writing we were still batting…. just so I don’t know how we did with the ball at this point). Hopefully you get your team into the top four, but if not, definitely get into your top 8 and go for glory!

88 Comments

  • Mitchell v Ellis? Mitchell is 60k cheaper but him being named last on the bench is a slight concern

  • Usual great write up dunny:) Beams and Smith > Jelwood and Kelly or Colquhoun > Kelly leaving me a touch less? Think Colquhoun will be slightly better and few more possessions with Wines out?

  • Great read dunny, who would u go out of mcguane or ben reid… Mcguane 26k cheaper, whats your thoughts?

  • Great Article mate,

    which two should i field out of Steele, Lambert and Daniel?

  • How likely is deledio to miss? At the moment I have gone laird > McVeigh and Steele > Hunter at F6.

    I could hold laird and instead trade deledio > Adams and Steele > hunter or deledio > bennell and steele > bartel.

  • Getting hunter in this week as finals have started early and I need a bit of luck to go my way to avoid elimination
    Ive got dpp so either b.smith or steele can go…. leaning to wards trading smith atm
    Thoughts?

  • Do I trade B. Smith or Z. Williams? My options are:
    1. Downgrade Williams, play Colq, Smith
    2. Upgrade Williams, Play one of Colq/Smith
    3. Upgrade Smith, play Colq
    Thanks!

  • Great article Dunny! Which two rookies will you field?
    Edwards/Marsh and Knight
    JKolo and Marsh/Knight
    Marsh/JKolo and Edwards
    I need to pick two! :)

  • Scharenberg or Marsh for defender downgrade. Who will get vest, heard good things about Marsh. Thoughts?

  • Scharenberg or Marsh for defender downgrade. Who will get vest, heard good things about Marsh.

    Thoughts?

    • Marsh cheaper so will allow a better upgrade next week – both vest chance though so better off field. Marsh looks better on the bench at this time of year for the cash.

  • Hey all! Who should I bring into my midfield that would score big this week?
    Anyone that’s sub $575k?
    At the moment I’m thinking between Adams and Montagna…

  • Who to start out of Malceski, Colquhoun and K.McIntosh?

    Leaning towards Colq, but then Eski is playing the Lions so in theory should go alright

    • Eski seems to have a little niggle and Colq copped a vest last week. I’m fielding both this week. Got 110K to upgrade someone but pretty sure these 2 will go alright

  • Went Fyfe & Beasley to Hodge and Marsh. Leaves me with Lambert on field in mids for this week only.

    Will grab Fyfe/Ellis/Hanners next week

    • Wait, so you’re going to trade out Fyfe this week just to get him back in next week?????

      • Yep. No point carrying on bench with 2 trades a week. Frees up the cash to get Hodge at d6 and shift maynard to bench. 2 rookies will mature this week flip them out next week grab fyfe back or maybe switch it up will have about 590 to play with

        • Wow you’ve got it all figured out, nice work. Be unlucky though if someone sustained an injury and you were forced to use the freed up cash you’ve got on them.

          • not really just prolongs it a week and i play lambert who will be good for 80 or so

  • Can you guys help me with my trades, please.

    Krakouer to Freeman/Marsh/Reid (at F7)
    Edwards/Z. Jones to Mcveigh

    My defence is very weak and these are the only trades that ‘improve’ my team. Edwards is named in Essendon’s 25 man sqaud (at CHF), but I’d much rather have McVeigh playing instead of Edwards playing. I like Z. Jones more than Edwards, but I want someone at my D7 who is playing and will continue to get a game. I’m not sure if Marsh will get many games (and score much) and I’m scared of the injury prone Freeman and Reid (but that’s all I can afford if I want to upgrade Edwards/Z. Jones)

    Please help.

    • Go for broke PT.

      Mcveigh is a quality in and will definitely improve your team.

      As for the Freeman/Reid/Marsh/McGuane selection…. well, this is a tough call many coaches are considering today.

      REID:
      – $146k FWD
      – when fit is in Collingwood’s best 22
      – career games 99
      – Key position player named at full forward
      – to play CARL, SYD, RICH, GEEL, ESS
      – in 2013 he averaged 15 disposals, 6 marks, 1 goal, 1.5 tackles per game
      – last 3 vfl games avg. 10k, 6h, 6m, 2t, 1.3g

      MARSH
      – $120k DEF/FWD
      – key position defender/forward named on the bench
      – to play CARL, SYD, RICH, GEEL, ESS
      – last 3 vfl games avg. 8.5k, 9h, 6m, 0t, 0g

      McGUANE
      – $120k FWD
      – named in the forward pocket
      – career games 108
      – in 2013 when playing for Richmond (before getting injured) he averaged 10d, 3m. 1.6g, 2t
      – to play GC, CARL, ADEL, HAW, WB
      – last week in the NEAFL, 24d, 1g 3b… and kicked the goals the week before.

      FREEMAN
      – $145k FWD
      – Key position forward named at Full Forward
      – to play GC, CARL, ADEL, HAW, WB
      – scored 38 dt points last week.

      So, looking at these numbers I’d be inclined to go with… Ried or McGuane.

      What do you think?

      • Nice work MD!
        I’ve gone with Reid, but I agree McGuane is #2 of those above.

      • Holy shit, thankyou so much MD.

        The only thing that is really stopping me from locking in Reid is him being injury prone. Marsh is now out of the race and McGuane would be nice because he’s so cheap, but will he continue to get a game and will he score good enough for F7? Same question applies to Freeman.

        1. Reid
        2. McGuane
        3. Freeman
        4. Marsh
        that’ what I’m thinking so far.

        • Might be worth looking ahead to next week. Will you have enough money for the trades you would like to make? Does the extra $26k saved by trading in McGuane help/get you over the line?

          Currently, I have Reid but will be getting the calculator out to see what the result is if I go with McGuane

  • Reid, Marsh or McGuane for a fwd downgrade

  • What are peoples thoughts on Steele to Lyons, and Fyfe to Hanners

    • IMO I don’t think people shoud be trading out Fyfe.

    • I wouldn’t got Lyons, but is Steele on you field???

      • Yeah, sorry forgot to say that I’m not a fan of Lyons either. Don’t get him keep Steele if you can

        • I’m holding Fyfe in SC. But no point carrying dead wait in fantasy. Has a big BE on return too, might even be a week after next bargain

    • Assume Lyons is not on the field, I dunno… If you just need the cash and you have a playing M9, I would trade down to a $120K player and spend the extra $113 on a laying mid. If he is your M9, I don’t like it much going into finals… Can you swap Steele to Reid in the Fwd line instead?
      Fyfe to Hanners – I love Hanners, wish I had the $ for him. If you have no other issues it is fine, but Fyfe will probably be back next week and he has a brownlow to lock in so will be motivated.

  • Steele is on my Field, I have seen Lyons play in the SANFL he dominates. Who do you think I should downgrade Steele to?

  • Field Colquhoun or B.Smith this week?
    And who is the best rookie to downgrade a M10/F8 to?

    • Colq
      Reid Fwds, I don’t like any of the mids though Lyons gets a wrap from aaron 929 above.

  • Def: Picken, Newnes, McVeigh, Yeo, Simpson, Malceski (Pearce, Edwards)
    Mid: Hodge, Parker, Neale, Rockliff, Selwood, Lewis, Macrae, Griffen (Steele, Kavanagh)
    Ruck: Grundy, Kreuzer (Griffin, Holmes)
    Fwd: Adams, Swan, Deledio, Martin, Mitchell, Gray (Lambert, Cox)

    $200k in the bank and locked in the top 4.

    Grundy to Martin or Malceski/Griffen to Hannebery?

    • Hmmm I would go Griffen to Hanners. Grundy still might score ok and he is unlikely to lose money for you this week. I reckon Hanners is the more important trade.

  • Dahl likely to score shite again this week? He got 70 when he played port last time ?

  • Trading out Steele for maybe Lambert, anyone know another good downgrade option? but need him to start in the field. Also buddy out for either Gunstun or TMitchell? any ideas?

    • I don’t like any mid rookies now – Lambert is fine but risky for $265K. Can you DPP Steele to a fwd and get Reid on the field instead?

      And I would go Mitchell over Gunston, though Gunston is a jet

  • As for the Freeman/Reid/Marsh/McGuane selection… this is a tough call many coaches are considering today.

    REID:
    – $146k FWD
    – when fit is in Collingwood’s best 22
    – career games 99
    – Key position player named at full forward
    – to play CARL, SYD, RICH, GEEL, ESS
    – in 2013 he averaged 15 disposals, 6 marks, 1 goal, 1.5 tackles per game
    – last 3 vfl games avg. 10k, 6h, 6m, 2t, 1.3g

    MARSH
    – $120k DEF/FWD
    – key position defender/forward named on the bench
    – to play CARL, SYD, RICH, GEEL, ESS
    – last 3 vfl games avg. 8.5k, 9h, 6m, 0t, 0g

    McGUANE
    – $120k FWD
    – named in the forward pocket
    – career games 108
    – in 2013 when playing for Richmond (before getting injured) he averaged 10d, 3m. 1.6g, 2t
    – to play GC, CARL, ADEL, HAW, WB
    – last week in the NEAFL, 24d, 1g 3b… and kicked the goals the week before.

    FREEMAN
    – $145k FWD
    – Key position forward named at Full Forward
    – to play GC, CARL, ADEL, HAW, WB
    – scored 38 dt points last week.

    So, looking at these numbers I’d be inclined to go with… Ried or McGuane.

    What do you think?

    • wow nice stat work mate. Any info on Billy Evans, Roy seems to rate him? 120K MID

      • Maybe later Kingzy.

        What do you think about the forward downgrade options after looking at these stats?

        • Sweet as.
          I would choose Reid first, then McGuane. Unfortunately I wont be able to go Reid I am 2K short of dg to him and my upgrade. I am looking at Evans in the MID or McGuane for Dumont

          • +1 Reid first – also proven at AFL level and we know, if his body holds up, that Colingwood want him on the field. If his body holds up…

    • +1 MD, great work and I agree with you. Reid is proven at AFL level and the Pies want him playing.

    • Thanks for the anlaysis MD – Reid preferred as forward downgrade, for those looking to fill a bench space in the backs Marsh’s timing for debut is perfect and will be a popular pick – already at 14%.

  • Buddy out, whos better more consistent? TMitchell, Gunston, Goddard?

    • Tough…
      All three have good runs home. I reckon Gunston is the least consistent and least good option, though he is a jet.
      The other two are great. I would say Goddard more consistent (2 scores under 88 for the year), Titchell higher ceiling (couple of low scores, still very consistent but more likely to be subbed because Longmire is blinded by the two giant underachievers in his fwd line and can’t see Mitchell’s quality.)

  • is it worth trading ebert to jelwood, or just doing a double downgrade for a big upgrade next week. Have already locked in top 4, don’t need to win matchup. Ebert plays GWS and Dogs next 2 weeks where he should go alright, but is Jelwood a must have this week? Thanks

    • Considering bringing Selwood in for Steele this week.
      I too am assured 3rd spot leading into the finals.

      Selwood BE 48… not worth waiting on him till next week. Get him in.
      1 upgrade + 1 downgrade if you want him.

  • I don’t think Jelwood is a must have but he won’t get any cheaper, so if you are definitely going to trade him in, you should do it this week. If you have bigger issues then do the double downgrade while you can which will give you better flexibility next week when you need it. After all, you could sideways trade Ebert to Jelwood this week and Jelwood could get hurt, or Ebert could hit 120, OR Jelwood could get another massive score… risky.

    • yeah that is what i am worried about. I want to bring jelwood in this week, but am unfortunately 3k short of going Daniel to jelwood after 1 downgrade. So i can either trade ebert to jelwood, and Daniel to hanneberry next week if i have no injuries.

      Or do a double downgrade, trade Daniel to hanneberry next week even if i have an injury, but means i miss out on jelwood… very tough

  • Yeah that is tough… are you downgrading Daniel all the way to $120K for a F8? Of taking Reid or someone else? Just wondering if you have another way to scrape together the case.
    But if you are well set up enough that those are your trade options, Ebert to Jelwood now and Daniels to Hanneberry next week seems ok to me! I think it is fair to say Selwood will average more than Ebert for the finals, and if you get Hanneberry as part of the deal then I think it is worth it. Like half the world, I did Ablett to selwood last week so I’m chuffed.

  • yeah well i can get hanneberry either way, so basically its just is the ebert to jelwood trade worth it? Or trading browne dpp to ben reid to have another playing rookie on bench?

  • DEF: Hodge, Mundy, Boyd, Mcveigh, Newnes, Kelly ( Byrne, J.Kolo )
    MID: Steven, Pendles, Armitage, Rockliff,Parker,Barlow, Treloar,Lambert (Knight,Smiith)
    RUCK: Goldstei, jacobs ( Cox, Holmes )
    FWDS: Swan, Gray, Dusty, Bartel, Titch, Ziebell ( Reid, Mcguane )

    My trades this week. Mckernan > Reid & Fields > Mcguane ( via DPP )
    Leaving me with $284,000 for next week

    Currently sitting 25th Overall

  • Jselwood or Bennell for franklin upgrade?

  • Mcguane or Marsh?

  • DEF: Picken, Mundy, Newnes, Simpson, Hibberd, Smith (Clurey, Browne)
    MID: Hodge, Priddis, Lewis, Sidebottom, Parker, Armitage, Rockliff, Steele (Glenn, Knight)
    RUCK: Goldstein, Jacobs (Downie, Cox)
    FWD: Swan, Martin, Gray, Bontempelli, Mitchell, Lambert (McKernan, Fantasia)

    A) Steele + McKernan > Selwood + Reid/McGuane + $129/155k

    B) Glenn + McKernan > Evans + Reid/McGuane + $390/416k

    Would like to go Smith (DPP) > Hannebery next week. But won’t be able to afford that move unless I go with Option B. This does mean I have to look for 495kish player for Steele.
    Too risky?

    Any ideas?

    Cheers

  • Hamling a late in. Will he cop a vest? Green?

  • I have an easy win this week to finish 3rd or 2nd in my league.

    Do I…..

    1. McKeran/Steele -> Reid/Selwood and $25k

    2. McKernan/Steel -> Reid/McGuane and $400k

    Players I need to upgrade on my field are Lobb, Lambert and possibly Wallis next week. Def and fwds are complete with emergenceys in all lines except rucks.

    What would you do?

  • Bit of rumor i heard Deledio may be late out due to illness.