Benjo’s PODs: Stat Attack – Round 17

Welcome back to Benjo’s PODs! This week, I’m going to breakdown the DT year, which will produce some interesting stats; see what clubs have the best run home, and then discuss some players you should highly consider, based on the fixture analysis.

But firstly, what a round we had! This week we saw some massive scores, with these big numbers produced from none other than Todd Goldstein, who scored a monstrous 175 points on Friday night. This effort though, was topped by the returning maestro, Gaz! Gary Ablett scored a whopping 176, the highest score of the year so far!

Now to this week’s segment…

Executive Summary

In this report I will analyse and draw some conclusions for who is the easiest team to score against. I have looked at the stats from the 16 rounds. From this data I’ve been able to rank them from easiest to hardest. What I found was pretty interesting. This will help with captain choices as well.

TABLE 1: Average 100s given up.

ClubAvg 100sAvg 100s homeAvg 100s away
Adelaide3.072.175.38
Brisbane3.733.144.12
Carlton3.63.73.5
Collingwood4.263.88
Essendon3.84.572.75
Fremantle3.733.753.7
GWS3.733.433.62
Gold Coast5.134.385.14
Geelong3.142.673.5
Hawthorn2.81.864
Melbourne3.64.252.86
North Melbourne3.333.433.25
Port Adelaide3.43.753
Richmond2.2722.28
St Kilda3.1333.29
Sydney3.073.123.02
West Coast3.63.573.7
Bulldogs4.334.274.39

TABLE 2: Average 120+ given up and 100s given up per position

Club120+Avg DEF tonsAvg MID tonsAvg RUC tonsAvg FWD tons
Adelaide0.930.641.930.290.71
Brisbane0.730.562.070.21.47
Carlton10.532.070.530.93
Collingwood1.210.82.730.41
Essendon112.270.271
Fremantle0.870.82.40.131.2
GC1.931.62.30.40.93
Geelong1.290.641.570.50.86
GWS1.070.732.470.270.87
Hawthorn0.470.41.80.130.67
Melbourne1.330.22.670.21.27
North Melb1.20.472.470.071
Port Adelaide1.20.332.530.20.93
Richmond0.20.41.40.20.6
St. Kilda0.670.272.20.270.87
Sydney0.80.61.930.20.93
West Coast0.930.732.40.20.87
Bulldogs1.471.132.60.21.13

Interpretation

So what do the statistics tell me?

1) Gold Coast is by far the easiest team in the competition to score against. Look for some big scores from Adelaide this week.

2) Collingwood are surprisingly the third easiest team to score against in regards to hundreds scored against them. They concede 4.2 hundreds a game on average.

3) Adelaide are very leaky and give up lots of DT hundreds when playing away from home. They concede 5.38 hundreds a game on average.

4) Hawthorn are very restrictive, particularly while playing at home where they give up only 1.86 hundreds on average. Although while being restrictive at home, they give up 4 tons a game playing away.

5) Richmond have been the most restrictive team to score against this year. They only give up 2.27 hundreds a game on average.

6) Collingwood surprisingly give up 6 tons to the opposition while playing at home.

7) Richmond only give up 0.2 120+ scores a game! This is an amazing stat, yet scary. Don’t put any Fremantle players as captain this week!

8) Geelong and the Bulldogs are also very leaky, conceding 1.29 and 1.47 hundreds respectively.

9) Believe it or not, Melbourne have only gave up 3 tons a game this year for opposition defenders!

10) Out of all the clubs, Collingwood concede the most hundreds to opposition midfielders!

11) North Melbourne and Goldstein have only conceded 1 ton this year!

12) In the last three weeks, McKernan has conceded massive scores. A 119 for Longer, 146 for Gawn and a whopping 175 from Goldstein!

13) Brisbane’s lack of experienced KPD’s lead them to conceding the most to opposition forwards.

Looking Ahead

Now, which club has the best draw? There are only seven weeks of the season left, so choosing your player based on fixture analysis is key. Below are all of the club’s remaining games.

ClubRD 19RD 20RD 21RD 22RD 23
ADERICHESSBLWCGEE
BLGCCARLADEHAWWB
CARLCOLLBLMELGWSHAW
COLLCARLSYDRICHGEEESS
ESSGWSADEGCRICHCOLL
FRESTKWCNMMELPA
GCBLRICHESSPASYD
GEESYDHAWSTKCOLLADE
GWSESSPASYDCARLMEL
HAWWCGEEPABLCARL
MELNMWBCARLFREGWS
NMMELSTKFREWBRICH
PAWBGWSHAWGCFRE
RICHADEGCCOLLESSNM
STKFRENMGEESYDWC
SYDGEECOLLGWSSTKGC
WCHAWFREWBADESTK
WBPAMELWCNMBL

Brisbane

Brisbane have an easy fixture. The only relatively hard match they face would be against Hawthorn, who are quite restrictive. They face both Gold Coast and the Bulldogs, which is an absolute luxury at this time of season.
Now, which player should I recommend from the Lions?

Rockwiz

Rocky started the year off at $760,700, after his record average of 134.78 last year. After having a four week break on the sidelines, Rocky has recorded scores of 128 and 111 in his last two, proving that he is almost at full-fitness. Despite only racking up 14 disposals last week, he got helped by his 17 tackles, two short of the AFL record set by Jude Bolton. Rockliff shouldn’t get the tag from his remaining games, with Beams taking the spot of the likely candidate.

We know Rocky is back to his best. 11 and 17 tackles in his last two weeks proves it. Rocky had 111 points last week, even with a hard tag from Viney. Beams is likely to get the Jacob’s tag this week, so Rocky is safe. He plays at the Gabba this week, his favourite ground!

At $529,000, Rocky is nearing full-fitness, and has an easy DT fixture coming up, so he must be picked in your team!

Sydney

Sydney also find themselves in a good position, regarding their fixture. In their last three matches of the season, they face, GWS, St. Kilda and Gold Coast. GWS and St. Kilda are both relatively unknown to match up on. Some weeks they give up huge points, yet other weeks almost none. Gold Coast however, always give up lots and lots of points, so you have to have a certain player in your side.
That player, is:

Jarrad McVeigh

McVeigh’s price has dipped 50k over the season. This is because he had two dodgy rounds, where he scored 83 and 55. Don’t expect scores in the 50s from McVeigh ever again. The week he scored this, Sydney replaced two tall backmen, with two short midfielders/backmen, causing McVeigh to fill an unknown role to him. But… McVeigh is back, scoring 99 and 100 in his last two.

McVeigh has only scored under 90 three times this year! One was a red vested 70, from half a game.

With a very nice draw to round out the season, McVeigh must be on everyone’s radar, and is extremely underpriced for what he is capable of.

Bulldogs

The Bulldogs’ easy run continues! Collingwood, Melbourne and Brisbane are some of the teams that they face. Their run isn’t extremely easy, but they don’t face, Richmond, Hawthorn and Sydney, which are by far the most restrictive teams in the competition.
Who do I recommend from the Bulldogs? Whose Haus? Dahl-Haus!

Luke Dahlhaus

People wrote Dahlhaus off after his poor patch of form between rounds 10-14, where he only averaged 76. Dahlhaus came storming back, recording a 94 and a whopping 132 against the Cats on the weekend. He’s gone down almost 50k in cash, and with a break even of 73, this week is the week to charge!

In fact, Dahlhaus was so good that he dropped below the hundred mark only twice before his bye, and one was an injury-affected score!

Think about it. Your only paying 480k for this guy. He has got an awesome DT fixture. Plus, he’s available as a mid/fwd.
Look at the above stat and keep that in your head when you go to buy Dahlhaus. Jet!
Take a chance to put faith into one of the above mentioned players, with only 7 rounds remaining before we say goodbye to one of the most unpredictable years in fantasy history.
@Benjodt

29 Comments

  • Wow Benjo.

    That was just beautiful analysis mate!

  • Love it

  • Super stuff mate. Is making me consider getting McVeigh ahead of Mundy

  • Benjo – Nice article. Cheers.

    DEF Hodge, Mundy, Simpson, Newnes, Hibberd, Smith (Clurey, Hamling)
    MID Beams, Armitage, Lewis, Parker, Rockliff, Sidebottom, Cripps, Steele (Knight, Glenn)
    RUCK Goldstein, Jacobs (Downie, Cox)
    FWD Swan, Martin, Gray, Mitchell, Bontempelli, McKernan (Lambert, Fantasia)

    $186k

    Ablett is required. Bartel, McVeigh would be nice.

    Keep or fold on Beams?

    Looks like I might be stuck for trades if I spent all the coin this week.

    Got any advice?

    • Hold Beams (as long as he is playing). Your first priority is to get a full team.
      Hamling > Barrass and McKernan > Ablett (Steele fwd) may just fit under your salary

      • Jordan…. thanks.

        Those trades leave me with $7k.

        Team looks good but I am concerned with lack of coin for next week.

        • I have the same lack of coin for next week but feel it is worth it as substantially improves your team

          • Thanks Jordan. Good advice.

          • However trades next week look very difficult. I dont have a lot of coin sitting on the bench.

          • Will be a bit premature but downgrading Steele next week should give you plenty of money to upgrade Bont/Hibberd/Smith/Cripps… You would just have to take the hit on having a rookie on field for a week or two.
            Otherwise you have to rely on mini downgrades of a Glenn/Lambert/Downie/Clurey to scrape funds

  • Best defender at 550k or below? Thinking Mundy or McVeigh as I need a premo. But which one?

  • One of the best articles all year! Great read mate

  • Beautifully written! Really appreciate all the work you put in to compile these stats!

  • Great Stuff Benjo! My ruck needs a bit of help. Thinking of McKernan –> Jacobs/Gawn. Who should I get? Can’t afford anyone above Jacobs. Cheers

    • Jacobs. Know what you are going to get. Gawn isn’t that much cheaper and is still battling for #1 ruck role

  • McVeigh in over Picken?

  • Thanks Benjo, I have been using best opposition stats against next five opposition throughout the year for trading purposes, it takes time to set up but is worth it. I have’nt taken the extra time to summarise individual positions, so it’s really appreciated mate. keep up the great work.

  • Should I hold Fyfe and not chase Ablett.
    Options.
    Ibbotson > Colquhoun & Mckernan > Dahl or someone under 486k
    Or
    Ibbotson > James Kelly & Fyfe > Ablett

    • 2. Ablett is a must-have at this price. Goes against normal procedure of getting full team before sideways trading, however i feel it is worth it

  • Great article Benjo!
    Who should I trade in this week Hodge or Bartel?

    • Bartel, Hodge is underpriced with his BE, but he is likely to cop a tag this week and should be around the same price in a few weeks, just without the instant price jump he’ll get this week. Bartel won’t rocket up, but he won’t be anything like this price again.

    • Although it’s purely dependent on your forward and def line ups, I’ve seen some teams with rookies still on field in defense, if Hodge would fix that, that wins.