The Friday Scramble: Round 11 – Bye Round 1

FridayScrambleHoly hat! What the hell happened? We drum into you guys all year about having a plan for the byes and making sure you have enough coverage and then this. The guys that we are relying on all either get dropped or they get themselves injured! Well, there isn’t a great deal we can do about it, we simply need to just deal with it and put the best team on the park that we can and hope like hell that none of them are late outs!

Or you can just make this your bad week and load up on players with R 11 byes and then simply hope that this doesn’t happen again. Let’s have a look at exactly what we are facing and what we can do to try and get through this week.

The Good, The Bad and the Ugly

Well that is a bit how selection went this week.  Let’s break them down a bit.

The Good

This could be a short section! Well firstly we get Daniel McKenzie back from concussion which is a big help. Most of us were hoping for his return and we have it. He is named third last on the extended bench which does worry me a touch, but at this point, we have bigger issues to worry about, so put him on the field and wait until tomorrow afternoon to see if he gets up. Great to see Sam Colquhuon named this week.  He is a $197,700 DEF in RDT, a $188,300 DEF in SC and a $219k DEF in Fantasy. I can’t vouch for his job security, but he has scored 95, 51 and 110 DT points in his last three SANFL games.

Alex Pearce and Tendai Mzungu come back in for the Dockers, I see Alex having some reasonable JS but not sure on Tendai, the interesting thing here is that Duffield has been omitted, with all of the defender woes at Freo, it is a surprise that he is out.

Hugh Goddard has been named for his first game, he is on that extended bench, so keep an eye out tomorrow.  He is a bit of a sub risk of course being his first game though.

The Bad

Tom Bellchambers has finally been omitted by the Bombers, this is a disaster for those that were hoping to hold him this week and then upgrade him next week to a R11 bye ruckman. Not much you can do here. If you can match his bye round then great, but your options there are really Grundy, Sandi, Nicholls, Longer or Mike Pyke. Your best bet may be to go to a R11 bye if you have enough this week, or similarly a R13 bye ruck if you have plenty of players there. R 13 opens up Mumford or Goldstein for you whilst if you opt to take an extra bye player this week you can pick up Jacobs or Martin. I guess you are sort of dictated to by where your other players byes fall.

The Ugly

I have put these two guys in the Ugly because they weren’t omitted but have “old man” calf injuries. Amon and Brooksby have both been left out due to these injuries, this is a disaster for a lot of teams (including mine).  We can plan all we like, but we simply can’t plan for injuries. Both of these guys are round 13 byes which means we only really needed them this week and next before we could upgrade them before their bye.

Aaron Vandenberg is also out for the whole of the bye period too with a hammy injury. He is yet another round 13 bye player which would have meant we could rely on him this week and next to cover a spot before we traded him out.

#AskDunny

Well, a hell of a week, but let’s see if I can provide some semblance of help for you guys!

Well now that we know that TBC has been omitted and is on bye next week, yes I would certainly be trading him out. If you still have 20 playing this week (or if you are down to 19 with TBC out) you can afford to trade to a ruck that is on a R11 bye. I must admit I am actually considering a move like this myself, but I may not be able to due to a lack of numbers! By doing this you certainly ensure that you have Jacobs playing for the next two weeks at least for you. So in summary, yes, if you can afford to with your numbers, then go for it.

I don’t mind this trade strategy and before the carnage I was going a similar strategy, that is double down this week to build cash for the following two weeks. Now, to your specifics.  Yes CEY is a good one to go, he will probably be leaving my team this week. Krakouer is an interesting one. Yes he has been returned to the rookie list, but Kenny did say during the week that he is probably first on the list to be upgraded as a part of the “free upgrade” available at round 12. So he may well come back into the team.
Now your downgrade targets. I don’t mind them either, however, just beware of course that they  have round 13 and round 12 bye’s respectively so you will be missing them in those weeks. Ideally if you have enough guys playing this week, the idea would be to downgrade to R11 bye rooks so that they can play the following two weeks for you whilst making some cash.  The other guy that you could also be looking at is Elliot Kavanagh. Check out Jeppa’s Juniors form this week for a full write up on him.

Hmm…. interesting thoughts here. Let’s look at this. Ibbotson has played all 10 games for an average of about 70. He has been scoring between 60 and 80 most weeks apart from last week. He has averaged 70, 92 and 59 in the last three years, so his average of 70 isn’t ideal, but he should be able to hold it at least for the rest of the year, with all the Docker outs he is stable and should get points.  Looking at Gilbert, he played only 6 and 9 games in the last two years respectively and averaged 70 and 82 in those two years.  His highest average in the last five years came in 2010 with 93 but hasn’t averaged more than 70 since which he did in both 2011 and 2013.  His 6 games last year averaged 52. To be honest the more I look at this trade the less I like it. I think that Ibbo is solid, isn’t coming back from injury and is in a team that should win way more than they lose. So, if I had to make a call, I wouldn’t do this trade.

Only a few questions this week, as most of the ones I received were either Bellchambers related or asking about the rookies in our second question there so I think we have covered off all the questions in our three above.

Things To Remember

  • In case you have been living under a rock, players from ADL, BRL, CARL, HAW, RICH and WB are all on byes. They will have blue dots in your teams.
  • Most AFL Fantasy leagues don’t play through the byes, but some will. Just check your leagues to see if you have a match up this week.
  • If your AFL Fantasy league isn’t playing through byes, don’t go to sleep you still have your two trades, use them to make your team better upon your return to league play.
  • Check late changes throughout Friday, something tells me our carnage isn’t over just yet!
  • Chin up, All other coaches will be in the same position as you.
  • The 7.94% of coaches with Gary Ablett as captain and the 3.42% of coaches with Tom Rockliff as captain won’t score as much as you probably, so be happy! Warnie is that you as a part of the 0.02% that have Stanton as captain? (These are AFL Fantasy percentages as at Thurs night).

Well, I can honestly say, good luck this week, I get the feeling most of us are going to need it! At the moment I have exactly 18 playing in AF, and that is after trading and I reckon that at least one these guys is a vest chance!  I had a dedicated bye plan for SC that would have seen me have 21 available, I am now down to 18 before trading and according to my plan in RDT I am supposed to have 21 but actually now have 16 before trading!  If your team is completely stuffed this week you may want to ditch this week and plan to dominate the following two, but just beware, if you do that there is no rule in DT that says that things have to go well for the next two weeks just because this one is rubbish!

Catch you all on twitter @pkd73 over the weekend.

53 Comments

  • First.
    Hey Dunny.
    What’s a better trade
    Krak to Fantasia is my 1st trade.
    Rich to Mundy
    Rich to Kelly
    Belly to Goldy
    Adams to Titchell

  • Looking at R13 forwards Ziebell and D Smith to replace Vandenberg, any preference?
    Would have loved to keep Vandenberg, but was hoping to improve my horrid ranking during the byes.

  • Looking at either Ziebell or D.Smith as well. Hard to split really. If you take away Ziebell’s injury affected score of 7, he averages very close to 100 which is elite for a forward. I’m just not sure if either of these guys will be top 6-8 forwards for the year. Thoughts?

  • Great read Dunny. Amon out stops me from fielding 18 this round.

    Don’t want to bother you but there’s one small mistake in your article – Brooksby has a rd 12 bye (with the suns), not rd 13.

  • Am going with 2 outta 3 ain’t bad system for byes that is I am tanking one game to strengthen other two ensuring 2 wins outta 3. Obviously ok gor league not ideal for comp. example belly out for Martin this week who is not playing this week is my tank week determined by who I am playing in byes each week and teams I can field. This way trading in 2 non players this week puts me 2 ahead next 2 weeks minimum

  • Next week I only trade in players who had round 11 bye

  • “Amon and Brooksby … Both of these guys are round 13 byes” – Brooksby is Rd 12 bye :)

  • 16 of 30 out after trades with loss of rd11 players plus Bellchambers
    Amon Vandenberg Johnson. Can’t even tank this week and hope others will be better as still have Krak to deal with

    • Same boat – 13 our o f 30 for this round with an extremely tentative 17 with Stretch on his extended bench.
      Currently have gone Belly to Kavanagh via Blicavs DPP (a sort of planned trade – was going to be Naismith to Kav via Blics)
      and now VBerg to Titchell.

      it is starting to ruin my “planning”

      Oh yes. Hopefully Krak back next week with “free rookie upgrade”

  • Shaun Higgins or James Kelly

  • I feel you mate. Had a perfect bye plan a few weeks ago, but am now left playing 15 this week (after trades) and 16 next week due to so many injuries

    • Same here 15 this week and possibly 17 next. I was well prepared 2 weeks ago.

  • Thoughts on going Belly to Sinclair/Gawn )they will go to Kreuzer after byes) to bank some cash for potential DPP’s and carnage over the coming weeks or use all the cash to get in Goldy/Mummy??

  • Goldstein or Blicavs?

  • Jared, go straight to the best you can get this week. Next week and r13 get players who’ve had their bye but this week just get the best. Having cash next week would be good but having Gawn and someone good next week rather than the best this week then the best you can afford next week with no bye to come is better as you will end up having to hold Gawn for weeks. He’s probably going to be ok but I’d rather Goldy and no further thought.

    • I was going to go TBC to Blicavs and one of Sloane or Hodge next week. By trading TBC to Gawn I can get both Hodge and Sloane next week. I think that’s the way I’m going.

  • Wrote so much confused myself. Best to get Goldy now

  • Brodie Grundy stretchered off @ Pies training. Boy oh boy, wowee.

  • Had 19 planned for this round, now i am down to 14 AFTER trades, there goes my top 1k ranking this week. Cheers Clarke/Berg/Amon/Bennell/Grundy/

    Bet seedsman will get dropped to

    • I still “have” 23 available, and “have” 21 … if they all played. However, actually have 16, with injuries and omissions.

      aaaa

  • Thoughts on CEY/Bellchambers to Goddard/Kavanagh?

    Looking like I can field at least 18 for Rd11 and Rd13 but my Rd12 bye structure is…how do you say…f@cked up! Maybe 16 players

    Figured it’s better to strengthen my team now for the long term rather than accommodating Rd12

    is it worth spending $560k on Goddard or spend less to have some extra cash to improve MID and other areas

    already have Dusty-Gray-Dahlhaus-Mitchell-Swan which means I would have the 6 highest averaging forwards in my team

    Cheers

  • Would you say that Alex Pearce is now the best DEF rookie option given the long term injury to Johnson will increase his JS dramatically?

    • Maybe… depends how Ross Lyon lines them up. He has re-shuffled Mayne down back before. I would say he is in a position where if he plays well he’s keep his spot. Having watched him closely (I’m a Freo supporter) I’d be surprised if he averages more than 50.

      They don’t direct play through him at all and he is more of a spoiler than a marker.

  • What about Belly to Kreuzer next week? Kreuzer could make me $$ while I fix up my team and that allows me to trade out Adams to Titchell after his bye

    • it’s what i’m doing. My thoughts are always “will this make my team better or just reshuffle?” Belly out is only a good thing, even if Kreuzer can only average 70 he’s an improvement and you’ll make $60k.
      Down the track you upgrade him to Martin, Sauce, Goldy et al when you have 22 on the ground.

  • Fantasia to get the vest?
    Bellchambers to Blicavs a good trade? Stanley coming in hopefully means Blicavs doesn’t have to spend a large majority of his time in the ruck.

  • Who to trade out injured vadenberg or Yolem out for the bye? also Bell to Blicavs or Gold?

    • I’m in the same boat as you. I traded V’Berg because he was injured and I’ll trade CEY next week if he gets dropped for Brad Crouch. I doubt very much that you could afford to hold V’Berg (which would be good if you could), so in saying that get out V’berg.

  • Any idea how long Amon is out for?

    • probably only a week as he trained and was a fitness test yesterday, however my concern is he wasn’t exactly on fire last couple weeks and if Colquhon or Young, Stewart etc have good games he might not get straight back in next week… and if he’s not in next week he’s not in until R14.

  • Pre teams I had a plausible squad of 20, suddenly 16 and 14 r12

  • CEY to Gaff, Wines or Ward, and why??

    • CEY to Gaff was what I was going to do until Bellchambers got dropped.

  • FInal decision is to go with Jack Ziebell.

    Take out his Injury affected game he averages 98.3
    Averages 6.5 tackles a game.
    Lowest score of 78 Highest score of 131 ( taking out his injury game )
    Kangaroos run over the next 8 games is brilliant.

    Projected score this week 111.

  • Ebert, Gaff or Ward?

  • Ebert, Wines, Gaff or Ward?

  • Who’s first priority to trade out this week? Amon or CEY

  • RDT!!!! Have 71k in the bank!!

    What trades should I do this week???!!

    Was looking at getting out Rockliff because he is injured, but who for?? And also vandenberg is injured! Someone help and give me suggestions!!

    McIntosh*, pittard Oxley, newnes, geary, Lever*,Mckenzie, saad

    Lewis*, pendles, beams*, Ebert, Rockliff*, danger*, Parker,vandenberg, Amon,dumont, freeman

    Mummy, belly( gorringe)

    Swan, buddy, bont*, Schneider, Gray, Mitchell, fastasia, lamb

  • how many do most people have playing the week in there teams

  • McKenzie and Schneider out, too, so I think you have 15 playing this week? Next week is even worse as you only have 11 playing as things stand I think (if Lever plays)?

    It really depends how many trades you have left. Rocky probably won’t play next week, so I would trade him if you can afford the trade, to a round 13 bye player. In my opinion, the other priorities for you to trade out are VandenBerg (out for the entire bye period, so no point carrying him) and Bellchambers (ideally to a round 13 bye player, which unfortunately doesn’t suit your structure with Mumford as your R1).

    My suggestions:
    1. VdB to Clurey via McIntosh, which creates a DPP link to def in your mids and nets about 240K.
    2. Rocky to a round 13 mid – perhaps someone like Treloar? Costs you about 40K. Alternatively, go for a mid/fwd like Ziebell to create a DPP link to fwd in your mids.
    3. Bellchambers to a premo ruck – Goldstein? Costs you about 180K.

    Leaves 90-150K in the kitty (difference in price between Treloar and Ziebell) and should see you with 18 players on field.

    These trades will leave you with 14 on field pre-trades next week (barring additional injuries and depending on Amon), so you’ll need to make another 3 trades to go close to fielding a full team.

  • Picked up Ebert, Thanks Paynton and Andyhawk