The Friday Scramble: Round 3

FridayScrambleWait… what…. What the hell happened with team selection this week?? How many things can change for us in just the one week!  There is an absolute plethora of issues this week and I am not sure that I have all the trades I need to deal with it!! On top of that we have our first price changes in Supercoach and RealDreamTeam after this weekend.  There are simply so many things to worry about and then there is Ablett and Pendles concerns… what the hell… LETS SCRAMBLE!

GAZZA GONE!

Well we all suspected that this might happen.  Gary’s shoulder isn’t up to scratch and as a result he is out this week, but if it was just the one week we would probably try and stick it out.  The problem we have is that we simply don’t know how long he will be out for.  There is one simple answer for Fantasy Coaches.  Trade him out.  The one saving grace for us who play Supercoach and RealDreamteam is that he hasn’t lost any value yet as the prices haven’t started to change. So by trading him out now you have still got his opening value remaining.  In AFL Fantasy we have lost $72,000 on him, but there is nothing we can do about that, we just have to wear it and move on.

Who do you trade him to?  Well the most popular choices, and most obvious ones seem to be Fyfe, Barlow, Heppell, The Bont or Pendles (but I will get to him in another section).  The interesting one there is the Bont.  If you trade down to him you will make yourself a tidy sum of cash that you can keep for a warchest or you can use it to upgrade a dud midfielder like Daniel Wells if you were unlucky enough to start with him (I may or may not have made that tactical error).

Pendles Probable?

If this were the NFL then Pendles would be listed as Probable to face the Saints tonight. Given everything I have heard this week about his condition I am not that confident he will play, I suspect he will be a late out.  However, given the importance of the game to a Collingwood that were flogged last week against a Saints team who seem to be on the rise, they may just risk him. I know this looks like I am sitting on the fence here, but what I am really trying to say is that you really need to keep a keen eye on Twitter this avo and in particular the final teams 90 mins before the game.

Hey, I ordered a Berger with these Fries!!

Well I guess the jury is finally in.  Stefan Martin really is the number one at the Lions these days with Berger now dropped from the team!  On top of that he isn’t even listed as an emergency! This would have thrown the trade plans for many a fantasy coach well and truly out the window!  So what do you do? Well hopefully you have made some cash on that Ablett trade above (heaps if you went to Bont), so you can use that to upgrade Leuenberger to someone that is playing but also perhaps a bit better, like a Goldstein if you have heaps of cash, Naitanui if you have a little less and Grundy if you are really scratching for some cash!

Corrective Trades

So this is the week that traditionally in Supercoach and RDT that we make our corrective rookie trades. Our Premos are all performing nicely, in fact they are dominating and we just tweak those rookies that we missed out on.  However, this year isn’t like that, so suck it up and just fix what you need to fix!  As Jeppa told us on Wednesday we should get our rookies right before we go chasing points with sideways trades.

Before you go and yell at me that Gaz has to be traded because he isn’t playing just consider this little scenario first…..

You have Gary and he isn’t playing and he has to go. But you also have Touk Miller sitting there not doing a great deal on your bench and you are missing some guy called Kamdyn McIntosh in your backlines. What do you do? Your head tells you to pick one change and then do the Gary fix. But consider this. Gary Ablett will NOT change in price this week. However McIntosh and whoever you bring in for Miller (maybe Saad or CEY) will be going up in price and they will not be worth as much to you.  Now yes I know that this could cost you a heap of points with Gazza’s dollars sitting on the bench. But you will be maximising the amount of money you will make out of this terrible situation. Let’s say Gaz’s replacement scores a 120 this weekend and you bring in Saad who scores an 80 like last week.  Yes you have lost 40 points.  But if you trade Gary and Saad makes his projected increase you would have missed out on about $40k in AF and $72,800 in RDT.

Now I am not saying that this is the best way to spend your trades but it is more than enough to think about if you are comfortable in dropping a couple of points in round three for the long term goal of a better team at round 23.  As Jeppa said on Wednesday, this game is a Marathon, not a Sprint.

Get Off The Bench

This was a hugely popular column on a Friday back when we had a bye in place in the AFL. But this year it seems more and more relevant with the inconsistency of our rookies that we are placing on the field each week.  I have had a few questions for today about who to play.  To be honest you are probably just as likely to pick the winning lotto numbers in Ecuador as you are in getting exactly the right rookies on the field each week at the start of a season. My two cents would be to start the guys that seem to look like they know what they are doing and to start the mature agers as they are less likely to be belted around.  So I would say start McIntosh, Saad and Clark as a given.  Then I would probably go with Hogan and Heeney.  I will probably end up starting Oxley this week.  His round one effort included a bout of cramp and he scored well in a team that was soundly beaten.  For those considering Brett Goodes I don’t think he will be the sub this week and with the injury to Easton Wood, he may just have improved his job security (watch him be cut from the 22 just to prove me wrong).  This week you will also note that Port have added Brendan Ah Chee and Nathan Krakouer to their side.  I expect that Ah Chee will wear the green and Krakouer will start as the natural replacement for Impey who is out for a few weeks.  Having seen Ah Chee in the trial games I was impressed with him and I think he will be a player, but don’t pick him just yet.

Things To Remember

  • Guys not playing don’t change in price – So if you have a guy out and other pressing issues, don’t stress as he won’t lose you any dollars.
  • Old Campaigners need a break – So those with Kane Cornes in draft leagues may want to move him to their bench this week.
  • One poor score doesn’t mean disaster – Hands up who traded out Dusty Martin last week?  Told you he would come back!  So did Newnes too which was a relief.
  • 22 Playing Players make a happy team – Just check that you have 22 players playing (sounds like a christmas song) now that we are three weeks into the season and teams are changing.

Wow, what a week, hard to believe it is only round 3 with all these issues to deal with.  I can’t stress enough how important it is to continue to check twitter and any other form of social media you like for the rest of today given all of the things that can happen prior to lockout tonight.  Best of luck to your teams this week and I will be back next Friday to a hopefully more stable Fantasy environment!  Catch you all on twitter @pkd73

165 Comments

  • Clark

  • HI guys

    I am wondering if I should do these trades. I have 8K in the bank and was going to trade out Cockatoo and replace him with Ellis Yolmen which leaves me with 87K. then I was thinking about trading out Goodes for Byrne which leaves me with 178K but also Tippett out for Byrne which leaves me 95K. Which of these two bottoms trades is best? Cheers

  • Need help please

    Thoughts on

    1. Trading Brett Goodes down to Byrne (purely a bench sitting cash play), then trading Lumumba up to Hodge

    Or
    2. KK/Lumumba to Simpson/hunt

    • Thats exactly what I was going to do with Goodes to Byrne, I think its a good trade

    • 2 is much better. Goodes will play especially with wood out for a few weeks and if he still doesn’t play getting byrne will be easy and thats if he even plays 2 games. It gives you the chance to wait.

    • kk and lumumba aren’t doing close to what we thought they should. Neither will be a top 6 defender or be good stepping stones to premiums.

  • When would people say is the opportune moment to get Boyd? Round 6 or earlier?

  • Thoughts on Boyd as replacement for ablett allowing me to get a decent Ruckman tje can throw Boyd back into DEF after round 6?

  • Hey guys im on fantasy with 12,000 in the bank and not sure what im going to do with Gaz and Leu this week, thinking about these trades:

    Gaz > Kennedy (Syd)
    Leu > bellchambers

    Gaz > Danger
    Leu > grundy

    Gaz > Wallis
    Leu > Mumford

    please reply with any ideas

    • please guys i need help on this

    • 1 looks the best. I’m assuming you already have one premo ruck. If you don’t have Bont id consider him even if only purely for a quick cash grab. He’ll be about 520k soon i think.

  • Ok guys I already made my trades before the teams were announced, I traded beams for mundy and griffen for dangerfield. Now that leuenberger is out I only have 1 ruck playing. Do I suck it up this week or reverse my trades and get in another ruck and keep griffen another week?

    • idk about mundy but I wouldn’t get danger, once he gets tagged he’ll get some 70’s. Too inconsistent

      • Just reversed my trades and brought in Grundy for Leuey (couldn’t afford anyone better) Now I need to trade Beams. I’m thinking either Sloane, Fyfe, Boyd or Wines…

  • Hard to have Clark on the field after last week’s no show, Salem and Hogan for me despite playing in Adelaide, at least you can be sure they’ll have a go.

    • Salem and Hogan playing in a pool in Adelaide against the form team in the comp vs Clark who is playing at home against arguably the worst team in the comp atm. With no Dawson Simpson, Mitch Clark will have to spend a lot more time in the ruck, as Rhys Stanley will not spend as much time in there ad Simpson did. Seems like a no-brainer to me.

    • I can confirm it will be very wet here. Not to mention adelaide are on fire and Hogan has played two very easy teams which help him. Clark had one of the best defenders on him and had no service. I’m starting Clark and Honeychurch.

  • I have enough in the war chest to go Leuenberger -> Jacobs but which second trade is more important this week:

    KK -> Hunt
    Lumumba -> Hunt
    Beams -> Bont

    • KK has a better Average against Geelong, Geelong doesn’t really tag

      Adelaide are up and about and Melbourne are well Melbourne

      I would say KK stays

  • Is it worth playing Saad over Lumumba?

  • Who to start out of
    honeychurch vs Hawks
    Clark vs GC or
    Salem vs Adelaide
    Hogan vs Adelaide

  • Which two start out of
    honeychurch vs Hawks
    Clark vs GC or
    Salem vs Adelaide
    Hogan vs Adelaide
    ???

  • Does anyone have any idea what Byrne’s job security is like?

  • Hey guys, I want to upgrade Luenburger to Jacobs, but i’ve got no cash in the bank! I’ve also got to get rid of Ablett. What would be a good option for Ablett, to allow me to get some cash to boost Luenburger for Jacobs? I’ve already for Bonts, so is Wallis the best option, or a rookie like Jed Anderson? Cheers guys

    • I wouldn’t get anderson and wallis does look good, seems the most reliable/consistent scorer out of him, rich and nvb.

    • Luenburger is definitely giving us all some headaches, Gus! I’m with Stevo on this one – Wallis is a great option in an in-form Bulldogs team, and Anderson (and other rookies) are prone to get ‘the vest’!

    • I got Wallis in last round, lock him in… (his average is 89.5)

  • Is B.Grundy worth the risk in my rucks, to set myself up with a bit of cash for next week?

    • Depends, if your other ruck is Belly I’d avoid it but if it is already Jacobs/Goldy you could take the plunge.

  • Is now the time to go Lumumba –> Smith??
    Would leave me with 50k ITB and I think alot more piece of mind