Adam Treloar – Deck of DT 2015

Name: Adam Treloar
Club: GWS Giants
Position: Midfield
AFL Fantasy: $586,000
AFL Dream Team: $583,900
Bye Round: Round 13
2014 Average:  103.5
2014 Games Played: 20
Predicted Average: 109.0

 

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Why should I pick him?

Adam Treloar is close to, if not, the best young midfielder in the AFL; only truly rivalled by Jaeger O’Meara. That’s not an just an opinion; it’s backed up by statistics.

From Treloar’s intake year (2012), only Toby Greene comes close to averaging what Treloar has averaged over the past three seasons, with Treloar averaging 91.63pts from 58 games. In the early years, when career stats aren’t supposed to be impressive, Treloar is ranked ahead of Greene (91.03pts), Tom Mitchell (88.93), Dylan Shiel (81.35), Stephen Coniglio (80.38) and Devon Smith (79.05) for best scoring new players from that year. O’Meara (2013 intake) comes close with an average of 90.90 from 44 games, approximately 5pts more on average than Treloar to the same point.

For total games played, Treloar is only behind Ellis (63), Wingard (62) and Smith (59), however he has played more minutes than any of them, with Ellis (9), Wingard (7), and Smith (2) all having vest affected games. Amazingly, for a young modern era player, Treloar has never been in a green or red vest.

Now at 58 games, in his first 50 games Treloar has had more 30+ disposal games than Ablett Jnr, Pendelbury, Watson, Dangerfield, Kennedy (Syd) and Judd; combined. He also averaged more possessions than any of them over the same period of time. In fact, when comparing him to established players, only Joel Selwood comes close to what Treloar is producing as a midfielder in his first three years; with Selwood playing three more games in his first three years, and averaging just 2.11pts more than him. This is the company that Treloar keeps.

Treloar's Company

Treloar’s Company – Three Year Comparison

Treloar has the high ceiling you want from a premium, with a career best 159pts against Melbourne (in the rain) last year. He is also consistent; ranked 6th in the league by Champion Data from players who played more than ten games. With 30% of his scores last year over 115 points and only three scores below 91pts, it means good things. Two of his low scores came early in the year, against St Kilda (69pts / Round 2) and Adelaide (68pts / Round 5) and his lowest thereafter against North Melbourne (84pts / Round 20) would still be acceptable as a lower end score. If you remove these three scores, he would have averaged 108.7 last season.

What can Adam Treloar average in 2015?

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Treloar, like all Giants, also has the round 13 bye. This means he can be there, scoring you points, when most other midfield guns are going missing. The 17th most expensive midfielder for 2015, Treloar had a better fantasy output in 2014 than common favourites Nat Fyfe, Bryce Gibbs, Trent Cotchin & Brent Stanton and this alone can justify his position in your team. If that’s not enough, he’ll also be a unique alternative to those willing to take the rollercoaster of those aforementioned players: he is currently in only 3.6% of AFL Fantasy teams.

Why shouldn’t I pick him?

Let’s be honest; tactics or favouritism. They would be the only two acceptable reasons to not pick Treloar.

On Tactics
Instead of Treloar, you may want a mid-price player who has been discounted (like Tom Mitchell / -$154,000) even if his place in the Sydney team is questionable. Maybe you want a more proven player around the same price (like Jobe Watson / +$3,000) even if, well, Essendon and ASADA and all that. You may prefer a Dual Position Player (like Dustin Martin / -$33,000) in your midfield instead of Adam, even if Dusty is a little up and down throughout the season (if not the match). Finally you don’t pick him because you want a very hard-line Guns and Rookies strategy; picking only uber-premiums (like Scott Pendlebury / +$31,000), even if it means taking risks with the cheapest of the rookies.

But really, those options aren’t anything other than tactical reasons not to pick him.

On Favouritism
Oliver Wines, Jaeger O’MearaDion Prestia or Toby Greene may be your preferred young midfielder option – if tactically you’ve decided you’re having one. Maybe you like O’Meara’s hairstyle or Greene’s swagger better? Only favouritism, which includes a ‘break-out’ gut feel or a preference for up and down scores would justify any of these players over Treloar. Statistically, Treloar is the better option for 2015.

Other Concerns?

  • His lowest scoring year was his debut season, where he averaged 81.6pts from 18 games, and he backed that up the following year with an 88.9pt average from 20 games. He lifted that average by 15pts last year and should look to lift it again.
  • He is yet to play a full season, however this has been simply coaches managing his workload and managing minor niggles. Leon Cameron would be looking to Treloar to play all possible games this year.
  • He could be tagged, but he isn’t the most damaging Giant by foot, nor the most influential midfielder, and if he is tagged, he’ll win the contested ball anyway. Last year Treloar ranked equal 11th of all AFL players for average contested possessions and equal 16th in the AFL for average clearances.
  • The addition of Ryan Griffen won’t mean he will get less of the ball. It will mean he attracts less attention from the opposition at clearances, meaning he can utilize his outside pace to win the ball; he ranked equal 45th in the league for average uncontested possessions in 2014.
  • If you are worried he won’t play in the guts, from a tactical point of view, Treloar can play inside or outside, and ranks well across the AFL for both Inside 50s and Rebound 50s. Put simply; he can play anywhere without it affecting his scoring. Champion Data ranks him Elite (in the top 10% of all midfielders) for disposals, contested possessions, clearances and ground-ball gets.

Whatever downside you think of; Treloar provides an answer. Oh yeah, and he is still only getting started: he turns 22 in March.

Deck of DT Rating.

KING – We are so close to an ACE here. Not having scored 100+ for more than the one season (due to age) and two scores under 70 last year are the only things holding me back (possibly harshly) from assigning Treloar the converted ACE status. And that’ll likely come this time next year.

Treloar is a set and forget type player, similar to a young Joel Selwood or Scott Pendlebury. He can find the ball and find you points and you will rarely ever have to worry that he would do anything else. Lock.

FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER: @RLGriffinGWS for all thing AFL Fantasy (and more). Got something to say about the deck? Use the hashtag… #DeckofDT.

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40 Comments

  • Have him at m4 in fantasy, rdt and sc. Lock and load

  • Why did I have to go and read this? It was painful enough having to take griffen out of my team to accommodate ward and greene but now I’m just confused. Could I really start with FOUR giants in my midfield?!

    • Haha. You took Griffen out!?
      But seriously, I’m actually in the same boat. The Giants ranked 11th for total disposals last year; and Leon Cameron doesn’t mind sharing it around the boundary. The Giants should increase disposals this year, meaning better outputs for all involved. The midfield is the Giants strong suit in 2015. The only question is who to pick?

  • Far out that is one way to convince me! Only query is it risky having both Greene & Treloar? Think they’ll both be great guns this yr!

    • Greene could become more of a fantasy pig than Treloar; but it would take a two key things.
      1) Continue with his new outlook following his suspension. His training went up significantly following his club suspension and that resulted in even better scores last year.
      2) Avoid suspensions. If he plays 22 games he would likely outscore Treloar in 15 of them – but he will also have much lower scores.

  • Great, he was going to be my best POD, now everyone will have him.

    • A lot of coaches will not pick him due to tactics; especially as he is only entering his fourth year and it’s not a stretch to get someone like Heppell instead. He may rise from 3.6% ownership, but he should still be a unique in a large majority of your head to head match-ups.

  • I was already picking Treloar and you’ve just made me feel even better about the decision RLGriffin – nice one! Locked.

    Nothing wrong with picking both Treloar and Greene in my opinion.

  • Absolute gun and should be on everyones radar! Cheers Griff.

  • He is now in my team. It is his bye round which is the sealer as i am loaded rnd 12 currently

  • Greene, Treloar, Ward & Griffen… i want them all

  • My favourite player in the AFL, didn’t even have to read this. Always in my starting line-up, definitely an ACE <3

  • 1. Is Greene better than trealoar? 2. Is it worth having both and trading barlow. My midfield right now, Ablett, barlow, Greene, fyfe, s selwood. 3. The why shouldn’t you pick him should actually be called why should you pick him cause there was a whole lot of good stuff in there haha

    • 1. Greene will have more high scores than Treloar; but also more low ones. At this stage Greene is your ‘hopeful’bet, and Treloar is your safe bet.
      2. You could have both. It’s really up to team balance. The key would be to not have too many round 13 mids; but a few is good. Personally I like Barlow as a VC option more than I would trust Greene.
      3. Yeah.. I tried to fault the guy but kept coming up with solutions. Ha.

      • Is there a way to actually play the bye rounds. Because I don’t have fantasy coach I can’t seem to turn them off

  • Treloar is an absolute jet but an upgrade target for mine. Ward having two scores in the 40’s due to injury represents more starting value IMO, take those out of the equation and he averaged over 105 ppg making him 40K+ underpriced.

    • A very good point. I feel Ward will be more affected by Griffen’s arrival due to similar game play, but he is a little unders in price. For the first time, the Giants have too many premium options.

  • Not 100% sure why you haven’t included Ollie Wines in you table, since you kept O’Meara. Ollie Wines only averaged 73.5 in his first year, the bumped up to 91.2 last year. That gives Ollie a average of 82.35 only 2.9 behind Treloar’s 85.25 over his first two years. not only did he jump over Treloar in his second year. He has not missed a game. That’s 3,624 for Ollie Vs 3,239 For Treloar.

    I think Wines and O’meara are you next big things, this year is going to be very interesting to see how they go. I think both with average over 100. I haven’t been following O’meara very closely over the pre-season, but Ollie has lost a bit of bulk toned it up and has kept all his power. Kid has played the best first 49 games of any player in history. Watch him explode.

    • Just to clarify it was 3,624 points for Ollie in his first two years and 3,329 for Adam over his first two years.

    • Howdy. Yeah, Wines was excluded only because (a) I didn’t have time to research every single player, and (b) because Wines hasn’t been as consistent as O’Meara is to yet threaten Treloar in terms of ball winning. He is certainly on a lot of radars and leaving him off wasn’t a knock on him.

      • Fair call. I think I’ve just a bit of a man crush right now. Wines will be the next captain of our club

    • Braaaaaaad Crooouuuuucccch

  • Kudos for a very persuasive article mate, but I query support for a few of your points. Namely, why won’t he get less points with Griffin in the team, and what makes you think he’ll still point big as an outside midfielder? (if he is indeed pushed out there). Statistically, he won the second most stoppage first possessions for a GWS player indicating a large sum of his points are coming from inside possession. Considering Ward ranked 1st for GWS clearances and Griffin had the 4th highest average clearances in the competition, there has to be doubt on his inside position (particularly with Greene and Coniglio rising as well). Even despite his high uncontested possession figures, surely the presence of another gun mid will mean he is targeted less? My other concern is how many teams have 4 midfield players that consistently score 100+ each game, let alone a team in the bottom 4? At $586k you’re basically betting your house on the fact he’ll be GWS’s number 1 midfield, and that’s a big gamble in my opinion.

    Again, great article though. I had him from round 1 last year and he dominated for me – I’m just concerned with the likelihood of improvement at that price tag.

  • Nice work, Griff.
    Great to see some fantasy recognition for the Giants. They’ll become staples in many at team for years to come.

    Question without notice – Ward vs Treloar? Will the addition of that other R Griff free up Captain Cal enough to consider him over the AFL’s most hardcore The Rock fan (Treloar)? I’d really like to start with Cal again in 2015 but those games last year where he copped the tag hurt.

  • Top article Griff.
    Great young midfielder who will probably get more attention from taggers this year whereas Greene wont be tagged….. !!
    The smallman for me.

  • Nice article and a persuasive argument. I appreciate that no research can ever be completely inclusive but you have missed a certain Brad Crouch from your table. I do not have his DT figures but in two years his AFLF numbers are 25 games at a 92 average, perhaps more variable that Treloar (who I really rate) because of his broken leg in early 2014. Oh, and a very friendly draw in the pre-bye rounds in 2015.

  • What an awesome article Griff. Well researched and written and a very persuasive article. I like this kid a lot and his bye is very nice, but does not suit me to start with him… I prefer Crouch.

    I do think he will likely make his way in post bye though. Treloar, Wines, Crouch x 2, Shiel, Coniglio will be fantasy staples for us for years to come. .. As Bruce would say “Delicious”

  • Cheers man. Yeah, as mentioned above by @Chels, Crouch is a viable option instead of Adz for a little bit less cash. I think I’d be leading towards Treloar purely because he is more proven at this stage, and Crouch has a new coach. But throw in O’Meara, Prestia and Tyson to your list and I think in two years time the game will look vastly different. Exciting times.

  • I had both Greene and Treloar in my RDT team however Proven Power has convinced me to go with Wines instead of Greene. Bonus being twofold – I get to pocket an extra $66K and I will now have a Power played to watch when they play.

  • Sorry Griff,
    I should have commented on the article itself. as with all your articles, it was first class. Love the DoDT.

  • Sorry Griff,
    I should have commented on the article itself. As with all your articles, it was first class and a great read. Love the DoDT.

  • I think Treloar will explode this year. He is a lock for me.

    Looking to create a league that will be in the top 50 this year. Only 4 spots left join if you think your good enough. Code is EKHXZXHH

  • On your way pendles, Stevie, Barlow and jelwood. All about the young guns, how about this for a starting midfield:

    Heppell
    Greene
    Treloar
    Fyfe
    Prestia
    O’Meara
    Crouch
    Wines

  • ‘Only truly rivalled by Jaeger O’Meara’, Brad Crouch?
    Despite only playing 25 games due to a hammy and a fractured leg, Crouch has a career average of 92.28. Higher than that of Treloar’s.

    Also on Adam Treloar:
    -Apart from rounds 10-13, Treloar didn’t score consectutive tons, not exactly ideal from a mid premo
    -Will he average within a couple of points of the 8th best midfielder? I’m skeptical
    -Ryan Griffen will most likely reduce his time in the guts, and should you pick him over Ward, Griffen or Greene?

    Another nice article by the way. I think some questions need to be asked though, he’s not in my team.

    • I didn’t notice someone already mentioned Crouch’s stats, but it doesn’t hurt to double up on the great man

    • With Treloar
      his ‘standard’ scoring was a slow first half, before lifting after half time (typically 40 first half, 60 second half)
      which is annoying when you’re sitting there watching scores

      I can’t fault his consistency though,
      but if he lifts his first half efforts, then he could be a premo very quickly (that first half to 50, then 110+ is on the cards)

      is he in my side? no – other fallen options (namely Swallow, and poss Scooter) have him falling in that awkward gap for me

  • Agree 100% on Treloar – he’s a jet. Already in my team

    But on the stats – they speak for themselves – he will have a great career.
    That being said however – when you take any Giant or Sun players stats and compare them with someone like Swan or Ablett when they were his age, it isn’t an equal scenario…..

    Players like Greene, Treloar, OMeara, Shiel, ect came into the team as a starting 4 MID. Guys like Swan, Ablett ect had to earn their way into the coveted mid role.
    The expansion team MIDs were instantly in that role.
    Selwood is a freak – i remember him as a rookie and he was just racking them up

  • GWS are shaping as the DT team of the year, I’ll be watching their NAB games closely. Personally I think they’ll explode this year and spend a lot of time in the top six. If they didn’t have so many young guns peaking at the same time then Treloar would be a cert for me purely on those stats. Interested to see how they line up and rotate the midfield roles.