Matthew Kreuzer – Deck of DT 2015

Name: Matthew Kreuzer
Club: Carlton
Position: Ruck
AFL Fantasy: $244,000
AFL Dream Team: $333,000
Bye Round: 11
2014 Average: 59
2014 Games Played: 1
Predicted Average: 84

Today I continue my raft of Deck of DT Articles in the format of The Numbers. Here we go.

Why should I pick him?

86 – Prior to his foot injury in Round 1, 2014, ‘Tractor’ was coming off a career-best season – averaging 86 point per game from 16 games in 2013, playing predominantly in the ruck but also swinging forward with moderate success. He kicked 8.11 for the year, whilst netting an average of over 25 hitouts per game.

94.6 – Given 2014 was essentially a total write off; let’s stick with 2013 for a minute. I know our mate Rainman loves the ‘NVA’ or non-vested average: a figure that perhaps more accurately reflects the player’s true fantasy potential. Well, to go one further – if we take out just 2 x games – a vest-affected 21 and his subsequent return game whereby he was thrown around like a puppet (40), his season average all of a sudden jumps to 94.6 – premium for a ruckman in any language, and what would’ve been the 3rd highest average in his position. What’s even more tantalizing is that Kreuz totaled 6 x scores above 100, including just one below 78 from this 14-game sample. Not bad at all.

43 – 2015 sees the big man priced at just $244k in AFL Fantasy, which is equivalent to a starting average of 43.11 points. By comparison, this type of investment would get you a Shaun McKernan or Daniel Currie-type: two guys that no learned fantasy coach will consider. So unless you look a bit higher at the $277k-priced Matthew Leuenberger (now dueling with Stef Martin for #1 ruck at the Lions), there is simply no better valued ruckman this year with the job security and known potential as Kreuzer.

25 – Still just the tender age of twenty-five, word out of VISY is that the former #1 pick is projecting a massive presence around training; back to the running capacity that sees him regularly compared to his shorter compatriots (didn’t you see that he earned the fluro hat for trainer of the week?) Safe to say, Kreuz will be ripe to hit the ground running at the NAB Challenge and charge into Round 1 fully fit.

“Another one of the big boys Matty Kreuzer is looking fantastic and showing some of us little blokes up in the running – so he’s flying which is good to see.”

– Dale Thomas

MK1

Why shouldn’t I pick him?

3 – In a huge adjustment to the fantasy structure, there will only be three spots available for rucks in 2015. With Berger, NicNat and the multiple premium options on offer, does the Carlton big man fit into your plans? Sure, we’ll have DPP up our sleeves – but in a time where the ruck always seems to wreak havoc with our teams, this is the one position on the field that we need to nail from Day One. EDIT: AFL Fantasy will still have 4 spots for rucks in 2015. This change will only be applicable in Supercoach.

6 – There is a lot of talk about Kreuzer being played forward more this season: something he has had limited success with in the past; and could curtail his influence – and more importantly – his fantasy output for the season ahead. From the 16 games he played in 2013, he only kicked a major in six of those – kicking multiples on just two occasions. This trend has been a fixture in his career to date, having only kicked a goal in 8 games and multiple goals twice in 2012 from 20 games. Should he be forced to play up forward too often during the season, he may not produce the goods that we desire.

104 – In his 7 year career, Kreuz has been seen as a bit of a fantasy tease – only having played 104 out of a possible 154 games for an average of 72.3. With his only full season coming in 2009 (his sophomore year), the chances of you getting a full 22 games from the big Navy Blue #8 is fairly low. Will 2015 be the year he finally sheds this persona and fulfils his fantasy potential?

Deck of DT Rating.

KING – With the lack of confidence-inspiring options in the ruck this season, in addition to the incredible value and positive news surrounding him in the preseason; Matty Kreuzer is deeply-entrenched in my ruck division for 2015. At $244k, he’s effectively rookie priced in AFL Fantasy – the risk simply cannot get any lower. With all signs out of Carlton-land begging us to pick this fan-favourite, do yourself a favour and put the big man in your team and move onto the next position.

Will Kreuz make the cut in 2015?

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39 Comments

  • Not sure about both him and Leuey but Kreuzer’s locked down.

  • A firm no from me at this stage, massive durability concerns and probably plays up forward with the emergence of Warnock/Wood in the ruck.

  • Nice write-up McRath! It’s a Nicnat-Kreuzer ruck combo for me. Happy to leave Leuey out altogether.

  • I’m not too sure about this line…”Given 2013 was essentially a total write off; let’s stick with 2013 for a minute.” 2014 perhaps?

    And “In a huge adjustment to the fantasy structure, there will only be three spots available for rucks in 2015.” …I’ve got 4 spots in my team – or am I cheating?

    Either way, have to lock Kreuz in with 44 trades and see how he goes.

    • Cheers for pointing these out RLB – mere oversight that I’ll get cleaned up. I do, of course mean 2014 as the write off year. I may’ve been going off information based on Supercoach with the ruck changes…

  • Great read McRath
    Currently in my side for AFL Fantasy

  • Please join my AFL Fantasy league
    Code: APANLUMZ

    All welcome!

    • Hey mate, can you please stop the spam and at least be courteous to the people who dedicate their own time to write articles for us.

  • Great article! I think he will be a lock in almost everyone’s side!

    Going to go real cheap in rucks and backs this year and load up heaps in forwards and mids.

    Putting together a Pro league with expert coaches. Want to have a league in top 50.

    Code is EKHXZXHH

  • Thanks Matty, nice write up.

    I am a huge Kreuz fan but I have concerns.

    In 2013 when he played with Warnock in the side he averaged 69.5. In 2012 it was 67.

    I am also concerned on how Mick uses him. I can’t see how or where he fits up forward with Levi and Lachie.

    Just comes with a bit too much risk

    • He’s $244k Rainman! How can you pass that up in AFL Fantasy. I guess the other option would be to start him at R3 and go with 2 x midpricers (Leuey and Kreuz for example) to cover yourself… Even if he averages mid-60’s, it’ll be worthwhile in my opinion.

      If he’s fit and lines up Round 1, it’ll be a bigger risk NOT picking him than doing so.

  • Valid point but I would rather go with something like Bellchambers/Leuny or Nicholls if I went mid price rucks.

    As i said, I love the guy, but comes with more cons then pros in my eyes, whatever his price.

    • I am liking Belly/Leuey but both have bigger Question marks in my eyes. How will Leuenberger go with big Martin dominating the middle for the Lioncubs and can Belly step up without Ryder in the picture, and how will he cope with pressure from GIles and *cough* McKernan *cough*…

      One things for sure – I’m picking Kreuz in Fantasy regardless, and NicNat the other who’s firmly entrenched.

  • I wouldn’t want that much money sitting on the pine at R3. I would look to a Nankervis, Lobb or Philips, rookie rucks that are likely to play

  • Hoping someone can help me out with a bit of a D6 conundrum.

    I’ve seen a lot of Whitecross/Goddard/Rainbow at D6, but personally I feel this makes my team quite unbalanced, so I’m wondering if there are any viable options in the 100-200k range.

    Have seen Shaun Edwards and Zak Jones mentioned, but do these guys have any JS/fantasy potential? Will obviously pay in the 200-300k range if there are no such options.

    Cheers.

    • This is a post about Kreuz – good post too McRath

      As for your question, what does it matter this far out. We will all change our rookies when we watch NAB. just whack anyone in there

    • D6 or F6 are usually rotation players for me…e.g Zak Jones might be in D6 a the moment, but week to week he will rotate with the other two on my bench – so long as one of the three play you should be right. Curey and Dick are on the bench atm, but we’ll see what the NAB brings us.

  • “Prior to his foot injury in round 13, 2013…”, think you meant 2014 McRath.

    In any case not much thinking required, lock.

  • Lock and load in AFL fantasy, but I’m not too sure in RDT. Will suss it out further closer to starting dates!

  • Thoughts on Bellchambers or Naitanui at R1?

  • Nice appraisal Matt. At 244K he is probably a certain starter if you are playing Fantasy. I am no longer interested in Fantasy and are simply doing an RDT side and @ $333K he poses a few more question marks.
    Originally I had the favoured pair of him and Leuey in my team however I am somewhat concerned with having two very injury prone ruckman as R1 & R2. I decided I would only go with one of them and as such Kruez got the flick and NicNat is now R1. I know – NicNat has not actually been the most reliable team member either the past couple of years.
    Who is the better option between Kruezer and Leuenberger???

    • Cheers mate. Yeah a bit of tougher in RDT, but still value him as a worthy starter such is my confidence in the big guy. I’d still be going NicNat and Kreuz as I just can’t see how Berger and Stefan Martin can fit in at the Lions without one/both going down. My advice would be to hold off on making your decision until Round 1 – whichever’s prospects look the brightest… go with them.

  • If Kreuzer and Leuenberger both average 70 for the 1st half of the season, what would their prices be by round 10?

    • dunno but they would have peaked by then if they were going to carry 70s through the first 8 or so rounds

  • Tempting is Fantasy, but a no in RDT so far. Durability and role casts question marks over his selection… although the same can be said for Leuenberger.

    Dem eyes though… true blue.

    • *in

      • I dunno – running a line of Krooz,Leuey, GC/Don ruckman could be good – a potential line of keepers for around 1m

        he’s in my RDT side, but I do have Belly as F4 for the early switcher

  • Surely a Fantasy lock at that price as R2 (or even R3!), a much tougher call in RDT. Would you still go the risky Berger/Kreuz combo or limit yourself to one of them?
    I admit to still having some love for Kreuz after I picked him up for something like 322k during 2013 and he proceeded to smash out awesome numbers.

  • If your gonna take a punt on a ruck man wouldn’t big griff be a better option. 100k less sandi is likely to be managed throughout the season for a final tilt for a flag. Clark I’m guessing is going to be playing a tall fwd for most the season.
    Atm my ruck for fantasy is sitting as Lobbe r1 NN r2 Leuy at 3 and griff at 4
    BTW loving the deck write ups big kudos to you all!

  • Kreuz-Berger….The breakfast of Champions!

  • Hope you all have fun with Kruezers 65 average whilst he sits forward all game and Warnock rucks. Will not be picking.

    • Warnock is a spud. Kruezer will ruck over Warnock easily.

      • Yeah, cause that happened last time Kruezer was fit. Mick has already said he will be playing Kruezer forward. If Mick played Kruezer as the sole ruck, he would be a massive lock but Mick has never given any intentions to do so.

  • You got me excited when you said there was only 3 spots in ruck. I assumed the other spot would be midfield. But then you said only supercoach

  • Had Goldy/Berger/Kruez as combo but left me vulnerable in fwd & def. Did Goldy > Belcho with him as an upgrade for the bye rounds.

    Feel i should be able to get by with 3 underpriced rucks and should only have to spend 1 trade on them all year