Josh Kelly – Deck of DT 2015

Name: Josh Kelly
Club: Greater Western Sydney
Position: Forward/Midfielder
AFL Fantasy: $395,000
AFL Dream Team: $393,500
Bye Round: 13
2014 Average: 69.7
2014 Games Played: 18
Predicted Average: 85-90

Why should I pick him?

Josh Kelly was born for fantasy football. He started his junior career with East Brighton VAMPIRES, then to Sandringham DRAGONS and now GWS GIANTS. See the pattern here? All creatures of fantasy, and this young will be a creature of fantasy in our teams for many many years.

Taken as pick 2 in the 2013 national draft, he was thrust in to the mix in round 2 wearing the dreaded green vest. Even then from a mere 31% game time he managed to chalk up 11 disposals, 1 mark and 3 tackles for 41 points.

For the next 3 games he avoided being sub and started to show the world what he was capable of with scores of 73, 76 and 84. Admittedly not setting the world on fire, but I was super impressed with the tank that he showed and the way he just found the pill. He also knew where the big sticks were.

Between then and round 20 he performed admirably for a first year rookie in a young GWS team. Suffering a hamstring and an eye injury that kept him out of a few games as well as 3 more green vests, it would be easy to chalk him up as a guy that has all the talent in the world but just not there from a fantasy perspective.

In round 20, he came up against Melbourne and produced a game that I have watched again and again. 140 points; 27 disposals, 9 marks, 7 tackles and 2 goals.  He was electric. Oh it was only Melbourne you may say, this is true, but here is an interesting statistic. The 2 most expensive players in fantasy this year and absolute fantasy royalty in Gary Ablett and Tom Rockliff have never scored that high against Melbourne. Just a note, Josh Kelly is not yet 20 years of age.

He then followed this with a 117 point game against the Pies, again high numbers, 28 disposals, 6 marks, 6 tackles. He finished up with an 83 against the Doggies to round out the year.

113 average over his last 3 games.. Not bad, not bad at all. Better than Barlow, Joel Selwood, Pendelbury, Heppel, Macrae, Sidebottom, Fyfe, Treloar and Priddis to name a few.

I mentioned above that he started as the sub 4 times in 2014, this brings me to my favourite stat, the NVA or Non Vested Average.

Take out the games that he started as sub and his averages jumps from 69.7 to 81.4. If he was priced at his NVA, he would be around $460,000…. He is underpriced by around 65,000!

His points per minute (PPM) were better than other higher profile forward options such as:

Riewoldt
Bennell
Gunston
Westhoff
Roughead
Thomas
Wingard
Bontempelli

I do love this kid!

Why shouldn’t I pick him?

We are spoilt for choice in the forward line, and why would you take a punt on a second year kid.

Second year blues, it has been proven again and again that it is real and it is only very special players like Macrae, Wines and O’Meara that have broken the rule

He plays for a side that is bursting with young talent; Ward, Treloar, Shiel, Coniglio, Greene, Smith, Whitfield, Hoskin – Elliot and of course Ryan Griffen

Can he avoid the vest in 2015?

Deck of DT Rating.

JACK – I have a huge crush on this guy and his fantasy potential and I really think that he will show us more of what he has in 2015. He has a lot of competition in the giants side and there are only so many points to go around. He is currently sitting at F5 in my side and it will take a fair bit to move him.

Josh Kelly... yay or nay?

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19 Comments

  • Like him as well, looking forward to NAB cup.

  • Had given him little thought but is now firmly on the watch list, great write up

  • Always feels good to have a somewhat sneaky unique .. cross him off that list now i guess. Expect his ownership on dtlive to go from 14% -> 35% :P

  • Definitely made me think there Rob! Great stats (what we expect from you)! My only concern would be the odd green vest, which I think will cycle through the Giants kids!

  • Too many ‘cheap’ options in foward line so not for me. DPP is a bonus, if only he could keep it for 2016 and 3rd year breakout, then I would be very interested.

  • i think with my team i will have 2 players (fwd line) out of taylor adams, bontempelli and josh kelly. i think i will have adams, but deciding on who out of kelly and bontempelli.

  • Great work Rainman, love it when these articles throw someone in I hadn’t considered.

  • Taylor Adams or Josh Kelly is a pretty interesting decision i am weighing up atm, although may have to wait till NAB Cup before it is decided.

  • There is definitely value there but not sure he can sneak in at that awkward price and with so many other great fwd options

  • nice article but not for me personally. Won’t be a top 8 fwd imo and would rather pick up a cheaper rook to make money.

  • Unlike my backline I’m not looking to start these type of mid range/price players. Although I do realise that this kid has the potential to by the end of the year be one of the best in his position

  • Excellent article Rainman. Your point of Kelly scoring 140 against the DEMONS,(which continues your pattern) whilst Gazza and Rocky have yet to achieve that feat, is very interesting.

    He appears to me to be a future star of the game, I am a little deterred by his starting price, but I will still consider him. Being a DPP is an added bonus.

  • Rainman you’re gold!!! By far my favourite stat is his junior clubs “all creatures of fantasy lmfao!!! But seriously, amazing write up on a player I wouldn’t have looked twice at prior tbh!! The vest is my only concern whatsoever. Apart from that, the case you make for him his nothing short of brilliant and the research you’ve done on him shows why you’re so highly respected in DT circles!! BRILLIANT write up mate :)

  • As a MID, no chance… But as a FWD, structure definitely allows it. Biggest concern is clearly how many midfield minutes a team like GWS, bursting with young talent, can realistically throw Kelly’s way on a regular basis. Hmmm.

  • Predicted average, 85-90?? Not saying it’s beyond him, but that might be a little hopeful.

  • Is a serious consideration for me with his Round 13 bye and non-sub average, but 2nd ‘year blues is a real worry plus Griffen’s inclusion casting doubt on role. Taylor Adams is an alternative as well.

  • as mid/fwd he is a lock at F5 and unless he’s injured will be a solid lock this kid is going off this year !!!

  • The Giants will tear half the comp apart this year led by this guy, a great POD who will be this year’s Macrae. In my team.