The Friday Scramble: Round 23 GRAND FINALS!!!!!

FridayScrambleCan you believe we are here already?  It seems like just yesterday that I was selecting my starting squad.  Well have you survived?  Hopefully you are like Roy and in your Grand Final instead of being like me, Calvin and Warnie and watching from the sidelines.  I don’t know about you but I think this has been one of the harder seasons we have had for a while with all of the injuries, suspensions and late outs.  And things don’t get any easier this week!!

If you weren’t sweating on selections last night then you must have either completely given up (clearly not as you are all in it for the long haul) or you have a very unique team that missed all the issues!!

Grand Final Strategies

For me the Grand Final round of Afl Fantasy, Dreamteam and Supercoach are not only about one team but they are about two.  Yours and your Opponents.  This week you are in a unique position for the season whereby you don’t have to worry about the long term actions of your trades.  You can trade this week knowing you only have to get one week out of these guys and just go for it!

I am sure that you know your own team inside out and upside down by now, so take some time out and spend it studying your opponents line up.  Pay particular note to the uniques that you both have.  This is where your game will be won and lost (nice work there captain obvious).  But this is also where you can have the greatest influence.

Now in AFL Fantasy we obviously have two trades to use this week and use them you will, very strategically.  In Real Dreamteam and Supercoach you may have run out of trades so you won’t be able to do too much.  But you can still manipulate things using your bench players.

What you need to do is assess the matchups and see if your opponent is more than likely going to beat you with the line ups that you have.  If you decide that you are going to come out on the losing side then you should start to look at who the uniques are that they have that are better than yours and decide whether or not you should be neutralising those matchups by trading in that player that you think will cause you to lose.  For example you may have say Travis Boak and your opponent has Rory Sloane.  Now there is the risk that Boak is tagged by Crowley whereas I expect Sloane to go big against St Kilda.  So you may look to trade Boak out for Sloane and thus neutralising that risk.

Obvioulsy there are a number of factors to consider here and they are…

  • You have no donuts or major problems to deal with, and
  • You have plenty of cash to trade to whoever you want.

The other thing that you can do is to try and pick a COD, Captain of Difference.  Clearly this is a risky strategy as most people will be going with Rocky (and why the hell wouldn’t you be), but if you are that far behind the 8 ball and you need all the luck in the world you can to get over the line you may consider it.  I can’t condone cheering against Rocky, but you may just have to do it.  In the Supercoach world you can do this of course by using the VC loophole with their rolling lockout.

Selection Issues

Stevie Bloody Johnson is what I have heard uttered this week.  When he was out the other week many people kept him thinking it was just the one week.  Now that he is out for the GF that means those coaches could still be holding him and it is a forced trade.  With Macaffer out this means that the Hawks mids will be breathing a bit easier.  This should see Sam Mitchell a bit happier as well as Luke Hodge… oh wait…Hodge is out with “Soreness”.  Levi Greenwood has been another popular pick this year and could have been a bit of a unique for you, but he is also out now.   No JPK this week, he is still out!  Todd Goldstein is out!  Didn’t see that one coming!  You guessed it… Soreness!  One we knew was coming was Swanny.  Sadly his hammy didn’t come up.

What a recovery by Michael Barlow! Just the one week with a broken thumb!  Dyson Heppell also returns after a break in his hand.  Zac O’Brien returns!  And what a week to do it.  Just when we need him.  Sad to see Dean Cox miss out this week, I am sure he is hoping to get a game next week, he has handed over to Nic Naitanui who returns this week.

 

#AskDunny

In a couple of words mate… Bloody Important!  We all know the game that are played at this time of the year by coaches.  There is no doubt that there will be some late outs occurring this round.  I would be making sure that I have at least one cover on each row (maybe not in the rucks).  If you can have a good side and some bench cover you will go a long way towards winning your match up!

Wow this is an interesting one.  If they are your only issues then you must have avoided a fair bit of carnage.  I would expect that Kade Simpson should bounce back this week.  He scored 88 last time these teams played and has an average of 91 and a last 5 avg of 86.  Brodie Smith scored 122 against St Kilda earlier and has an average of 81 and a last 5 avg of 62.4.  This is what makes it a difficult decision, it is purely that 122 that keeps Brodie in the conversation.  To be honest I think I keep Brodie only because of the opposition.

On the face of it I say no.  However, but when I looked at the numbers it isn’t as silly as it sounds.  He has only played two games in the last 5 weeks for scores of 95 and 111.  His average of 96 though worries me.  He has had 7 scores over 110 including a 149 and 141 but he has also had 5 scores under 85 (not counting his red vested 33 and 57).  When they played the Saints in round 4 he had 128.  As a point of difference I reckon he is certainly not a bad choice.  He is also fairly cheap at $478k in RDT.

Wow, put me on the spot there Fenn.  Perhaps I need to return the favour next year for you on the Footy Rhino podcast!  I have a few thoughts and I am very positive that I will miss a few people here as there are so many options.

  • Toby Greene – He is only in 1.29% of RDT sides!  The guy has been massive in the last few weeks.  Jump on!
  • Taylor Walker – Well he is owned by 12% in RDT, but I think he could go massive against the Saints, particularly since the Crows may be chasing percentage if the Eagles get up and they are still alive.
  • Rohan Bewick – A forward at $395k and averaging 93.5 over the last 4 weeks.  He is playing at the Cattery this week, but they have been losing over the last few weeks and he is still scoring ok.  He would be a super unique as he is in only 0.2% of RDT sides.
  • Richard Douglas – Only owned in 0.4% of RDT sides and is averaging 89, but has scored 104 and 105 in the last two weeks.  Scored 89 against the Saints in round 4.

I don’t know if they are the best uniques, but they are all uniques that should score well.  If you call 1.2% unique then I would say Toby would be a must… isn’t that right Crutton Hutton?

This is an interesting one and one that has been debated in the Adelaide Media this week.  Crowley hasn’t gone to Grey in his last 3 games against us, he has always gone to Boak.  Many think he MUST go to Grey this time.  But let’s look back as far as last week when we have Rocky who is carving things up, yet Crowley went to Hanley.  So I don’t think it is a certainty to be honest.  One discussion I have had with a mate at work and also a bit with Freako on twitter is that if Crowley goes to him, Port may send him to the goalsquare to shake it and take Crowley out of the middle of the packs.  After all of that there is Duncan v the Lions.  He only scored 55 in that round 2 game against the two sides.  I think if it were me I would probably take the risk on Gray, he scored 99 on Freo last time.  However, if you are conservative take Duncan I think as Brisbane don’t tend to tag and Geelong should win comfortably.

 

Things To Remember!

  • Take a chance! – Make sure you leave it all on the park!  If you are not a certain winner then lay it on the line!
  • Prepare for late outs. – We know it is going to happen, don’t cry when it happens when you aren’t prepared.
  • Update that Never Again List Now! – If you do it now you won’t forget when you get to the start of next season and may accidentally select Colin Sylvia!

Don’t forget to come to the DTTALK CATCH UP tomorrow at the Richmond Club Hotel in Swan St.  Should be a ripper afternoon.  Come along and buy Warnie, Roy, Calvin and Jeppa a beer.  Oh, and say gday to me too!  Last year was sensational, the sing a long with Hairy Beard towards the end of the night was sensational with the whole bar getting involved, hopefully we can get Calvin up to take the mic this year!

Best of luck in your Grand Finals this weekend.  Thanks so much for your readership this year, it has been a pleasure putting this together for you each week.  I look forward to seeing you all back again next season.  Also a massive shout out to the awesome coaches in the Friday Scrambler Leagues on AFL Fantasy.  We currently hold the 3rd and 4th best AFL Fantasy leagues in the country!

Catch you all in the off season on twitter @pkd73

 

64 Comments

  • Hi Dunny. Loved your work this year. Devotion above & beyond the call of duty, being up at 6 am to post your article.
    Need help with my second trade. Until last night I was going out Simpson & Barlow; in Lewis & Greene (Swallow DPP). But now Hodge to Lewis is welded in. But do I distrust Barlow’s dodgy thumb by trading him to Greene (which is the way I am tending)or trade Simpson to Nick Mal or go some third option? 2 other relevant bit of info: my bench cover is B Martin, Tyson, Pierce, C Cameron and both my GF opponents have & won’t get rid of Simpson (I am confident the PODs favour me).

  • I’m not confident Barlow will play. Could be a game by Ross. I also think Simpson won’t be as bad this week. Will Toby get tagged by Picken or will they let him run free? That is the question. I’m not sure they will. I do think that Eski should go bigger than Simpson tho. Your bench cover is good so if Barlow did pull out you should be ok. Given they all have Simpson it comes down to Greene out scoring Barlow. I think I go the Greene trade. But either trades are good. Best of luck mate and thanks for reading.

  • Great stuff Dunny all year! I was wondering which combination would be better:
    1) Barlow and LeCras
    2) Duncan and Sloane?

    • I think you have to go option 2. Barlow is a big risk coming off injury and is a chance not to play.

      • Thanks, but I think that his thumb shouldn’t be an issue, and I think he will play coz Freo must win to make top 4, and they need their best players on the park.

  • With JPK and McGlynn still out, no longer have the luxury to trade out Kade!
    Question is, do I stick it out (SURELY HE CAN’T PLAY ANOTHER STINKER!?!?!) or bring Brodie Martin off the bench??

    • martin seems to be very consistent, good for an 85-90 most weeks, if you discount that richmond match 2 weeks ago that was very slippery and low scoring (fantasy-wise).

      now obviously kade is more capable of tonning up (and beyond), but IMO martin will be another safe 90 against the saints. hes keen as mustard to get amongst it when you watch him play.

    • i think Simpson will bounce back this week so back him in

  • Great read. I definitely agree re the bench cover, which is something I ptioritised early. I now have Hurn, NDS and Zorko on the bench. This proved to be important last week and got me into the GF.

    I am trading Harvey to Lewis and I was thinking JPK to Greene. But my opponent has Sidey so should I be looking at bringing him in to eliminate the POD?

  • Love your work Dunny. Hoping to take out the DT Talk Dunny league this year. Thanks again for your contribution this year and go the Power.

  • Dunny should I hold or trade barlow? Got nothing else to do!

  • Great article Dunny!! Just wondering, should I risk it and play Jaensch over Simmo? Or keep him on the bench. My opponent has Kade if that makes a difference. Also, who would you pick under 570k? I already have Priddis, Pendles and Greene. Im thinking Shuey at the moment. What are your thoughts?? Thanks heaps for a great year, really appreciate the help :)

    • Sorry, forgot to mention that I don’t have Bartel. Would it be worth neutralising the risk, or going for a unique in Shuey? I’m probably in the better position. Thanks!

      • Hey Matt.

        I think Jaensch vs St Kilda will score 70-95. Kade could go 30-120 so leaning towards Jaensch (similar issue myself below).

        I like Shuey but I would most probably go for Gibbs, been very solid all year and does have the potential to go big.

  • Thanks for ur efforts this year dunny. Who would u trade into ur team out of gray or kieren jack?

  • Do I bring in Ziebell? I have 464k and he seems the best bet

    Also, do I play Crisp or Blair?
    thanks Dunny for the Scramble all year

    • Personally I would go Goddard or Masten at that price. Or do you back in Lenny to get his 8 tackles to break the record?

  • $1,063,659 to spent on a fwd and a def.

    Option 1 Nroo and Heppell
    Option 2 Nroo and Macrae
    Option 3 Duncan and Greene

    Thoughts?

  • Thanks for the great work Dunny. Should my priority by bumping Ebert to someone less useless or replace Kersten to give some forward cover?

    • I would get cover. This weekend could be carnage and you don’t want to lose because someone like Buddy, Danger (if crows no chance), Roo etc. is rested.

      • Cheers mate, definitely seems the smart thing, especially with Dusty looking a little dicey.

  • Who do you think will score more?

    Jake Lloyd or McGovern.

    NDS or Simpson?

  • Thanks for the efforts all year Dunny, great and useful read of a Friday morn.

    Which 2 of these 3 do I play on field:
    Jaensch
    Nick Dal Santo
    K Simpson
    Leaning towards benching Kade as opponent doesn’t have him but really have no idea.

    Which 1 out of these 3 do I bench:
    Gray
    K Jack
    M Duncan
    Leaning towards Duncan.

    • Hah I have the same situation as the first.

      I’m going Simpson on field. I think theres a strong change melb will tag NDS.

      Bench Duncan IMO.

  • Ahh dammit I knew I should have traded Harvey last week instead of Barlow.
    The DPP of harvey made it more flexible but these “miraculous turnarounds” happen do often nowadays.

    Grrr

  • Greene vs Lewis?

  • I need to upgrade JPK and was simply going to find some cash by downgrading a reserve. However, I then thought what about:

    Ebert->Josh Kelly?

    Ebert plays Freo at Subi, Kelly plays WB at Docklands and has form on his side.

    Worth the punt, keeping in mind that I can make the money elsewhere?

  • I have 995k to spend on 1 midfielder and one ruck due to goldy not playing this week and I all ready needed to trade out Harvey too.

    who to get in

    rock, pendles, priddis, macrae, jelwood, Sloane, cotchin, ……..

    martin, ……..

    • If Rock means Rockliff then he has to be in. Beg borrow or steal to enable this. If your opponent has him it would be ludicrous to go into a GF without him.
      Martin is also a must have but Mumford can go large if he doesn’t give away too many frees due to treating smaller players like rag dolls.

    • you must get Rockliff…. you won’t win without him mate.

  • Just had an idea for next season… Limit the number of trades during the normal season (less cash generation and so we don’t all end up with the same team), then have 2 trades per final to deal with the all the rested players… Most of the finals series I’ve had 90% of the same team as my opponents

  • Dunny loved the work all year

    Can I please ask for one last piece of advice?

    Looking at either Hodge and Burgoyne to Petterd and Bartel

    Or hodge and ebert to dal santo and lewis.

    Either option my opponent has both players, so essentially looking at the combination that will score the most and thus limit his gain.

    I think I am leaning towards #2, but then again Jimmy at home.

    • Jimmy has been a little off his game this week and appears a little haunted from his Diving antics. Would def go #2

  • Need Help please?

    JPK to JLewis or T Greene?

  • Which player to get as MID emergency?
    Kayne Turner, George Horlin-Smith, or Jake Lloyd. Or other?

    Have 327k to burn
    Thoughts and suggestions appreciated

    • I like Jake Lloyd, especially after he starred as an emergency for me two weeks ago with a 100+.

  • A) Gray + Hibberd
    B) Zaharakis + Hibberd
    C) Duncan + Hibberd
    D) Jack + Hibberd
    E) Lecras + S.Mithcell

    Would be great to hear which combo you guys would pick.

    Cheers

  • Gray and hibbo for me, despite all the talk about crowley to gray it won’t happen, hes a certainty to goto boak!

    Jonas and pittard both had plenty of possessions off half back last week and hibbo will do the same, loved his +6

    • Thanks All.

      Hollywood – I like your thinking. Hibberd + Gray/Zaha…. thinking Gray.

  • 1) Sidebottom and Mumford
    2) Greene and Mumford

  • My match up this week (my team first):

    Bartel vs Mackie
    Malceski vs Swallow
    Hanley vs B Smith
    Lewis* vs Sidey
    Greene* vs Gibbs
    Sloane vs Jones
    Cotchin vs NDS
    Duncan vs Zaha
    Danger vs D Smith

    * trade ins this week (for Harvey & JPK)

    So who do you think will win? Bearing in mind I have no idea what trades my opponent will do.

  • Need to play Daniel Currie or Sam Naismith in ruck. Which one would you choose? I am leaning towards Currie but unsure how good Naismith is.

  • Currie

  • Hibberd vs Malceski

    If malceski than Pettard or Zaha

    if hibberd than Petterd or Zaha or D.Smith

  • Will Marc Murphy actually play after being knocked out last week?
    Will he be any good?