The Friday Scramble: Round 17

FridayScrambleIf you aren’t scrambling today, then you are just not taking this game seriously enough!  With Gary Ablett now out for the season, Brendon Goddard and Tom Rockiff both out suspended.  Shaun Higgins and Dean Cox dropped along with various other selection changes there is just so much that you have to consider with your teams this week!!

To be honest I am kind of glad that there was a decisive decision made about Gary this week and we weren’t left to wonder how many weeks he could be out for and whether or not we trade!  That kind of stuff just messes with your head.

So let’s just get stuck straight into it because all the talk all week has been….

What to do with Gary Ablett?

Well we all know the first and most obvious answer to that question which is to trade him out now that we know he is out for the rest of the season.  Gary was averaging 119.1 and priced at $613,638 in AFL Fantasy and $618,800 in RDT.  For me there are two clear things you can do with Gary and I will look at both of them here.

1. Trade him for another Premium straight up.

To be honest this is the obvious option that everyone should look at.  If you haven’t got one of the other guys who is averaging over 105 (and is actually playing) then I would be looking at bringing one of them in.  The guys that are in this category would be:

Josh P Kennedy is having a great season averaging 110 and is playing in the top side which means he should be getting plenty of the ball.  The only issue I see with JPK at the moment is any extra attention he gets with Hanneberry out at the moment.  Priced at $569,702 in AFL Fantasy and $565,300 in RDT.

Scott Pendlebury is clearly up there as probably the number one option to replace Gary if you don’t have him, but to be honest I reckon just about every reader of DTTalk will have Pendles in their side. Pendles is averaging 11and is $563k in AFL Fantasy and $561k in RDT.  So there is actually about $50k to be made if you go to him.

Tom Rockliff is obviously out this week. So you wouldn’t be getting him in AFL Fantasy  If you really want him you could bring in someone else and then just make sure you have the cash to go to him next week.  In RDT if you want him you have two options.  Firstly you hold Gaz on the bench this week and play a bench cover player somehow either straight up or through DPP.  OR you bring him in this week and put him on the bench.  Either way you have to play bench cover.  Personally I would advise against this plan unless you are super in love with Rocky just like Roy is.  I would always go for a guy that is playing this week.

Michael Barlow isn’t playing poorly, he is averaging  111 and he is very consistent.  He is priced at $553,675 in AFL Fantasy and $547,900 in RDT.  He is a great option with the run that Fremantle have coming up.

2. Trade him for a fallen Premium or a cheaper midfielder.

This means that you will then be getting in someone that is good enough to play in the mids for you but you will also be banking a significant amount of money that you can then use to upgrade someone else or keep in reserve for a future trade.

Stevie J isn’t having the best run and has leaked a fair bit of cash since round 1.  He is now priced at only $511,812 in AFL Fantasy and $505,100 in RDT.  His average is 110.8 but he has only had 2 scores over 100 in his last 6 and there is a lot of rumour that he is carrying an injury and will be rested at some stage.  For those two reasons I would actually be steering clear of Stevie.

Nat Fyfe isn’t someone I think of as a fallen premium, but his price of $526,400 in RDT is certainly cheap.  In AFL Fantasy he is $522,429.  His average is only 101.92 which isn’t the best, but he has the propensity to go big and that is something that we all look for.

Rory Sloane is a bit of an under rated guy who isn’t heavily owned.  He is only in 4.28% of RDT sides.  His price of $508k exactly and his average of 104.47 make him an attractive option if you ask me!  All of the attention at Adelaide goes to Dangerfield and this can leave Sloane to run free and score!

Trent Cotchin is the last guy I will mention here.  He has had an average season to date but he is a little more popular being in 17% of RDT sides.  He has an average of 105 and will cost you $547,600 RDT dollars.  His last 4 have been 100, 138, 118 and 110 which tells me that he has turned his season around from the up and down start to the season.

So there you have a few guys that I have had a bit of a look at.  The direction that you take will heavily depend on your situation, particularly with respect to the amount of money that you have left, and the number of trades in the limited trade versions of the game.

To do your research and analysis I would heavily recommend Chad’s DTLive website and the new Data View that he has built for us.  Check it out HERE.  I simply did a sort on the average column and then it will show you everything you need to know!

#ASKDUNNY

So this week I asked you for non Ablett questions as I knew that I would certainly be writing about that topic already!!  Here are a couple of the questions this week.

Sandi has been struggling a bit of late compared to his great start to the season.  He is averaging 91 but has had only 1 ton in his last 8 games with the last two being 75 and 73.  I like Martin, and with Leuenberger being injured in the NEAFL last week (or suffering a setback at least) Martin will be a good option for a few weeks yet.  However, I am a little concerned when Berger finally gets back.  At this stage though, ride the Martin train I say.

I think the thing that saves us a bit with Beamer is that he is owned by just about every team in the comp (well every serious one at least).  Yes he has had a shocking last month with a late out and only one score over 100 in his last 5.  To be honest I am worried that he has an injury of some description and as such he is a bit of a risk.  The other option is that he is getting the attention that was previously going to Swanny and also over this period there have been 3 weeks without Sidebottom.  So his success is certainly catching up with him.  In RDT and Supercoach I think you simply have to stick by him, you can’t afford to be luxury trading in those games.  But in AFL Fantasy you could certainly sideswap him.  However, beware, he is just as likely to pick it up again and go on a tear without you having the cash to get him back.

As a forward Zaharakis is expensive, but he is averaging just a touch under 100 and he is on fire at the moment with only 2 in his last 7 under 115.  I think he is a great pick and is ranked 5th of all forwards.  Mitch Duncan is ranked 9th and averages 95.  He seems to be more consistent around the 100’s whereas Zaka had a really slow start to the year with only 1 100 (and it was exactly 100) in his first 8 before he went on the ripping tear he is currently on.  So on form I think you have to go Zaka as he has the propensity to go big more than Duncan does.

Both of these guys are playing away this week, but I am a little more worried about Shenton in Tassie against North than I am about McGovern in Brisbane against the Lions.  So I think I would have to sway in favour of McGovern on this one, but to be honest I see both of these guys as a bit of a raffle.

Quick Selection News

Check the team lineups carefully as there was a lot of relevancy this week in the ins and outs.  Outs include Jed Bews, Billy Longer (only really relevant in draft leagues), Jack Steven, some guy called Gary Ablett, Tom Rockliff, Brendon Goddard, Shaun Higgins!, Dean Cox (with Soreness).  This could mean there are some teams out there that are going to be playing short if they have more than 2 of these guys and no little bench cover.

However on the positive side we regain Will Langford, Nic Naitanui, James Kelly, Lenny Hayes, Matthew Pavlich and Ben McEvoy.  I know that not all of these guys are relevant in AFL Fantasy or RDT, but they would be in many draft leagues!

Things to Remember

  • Did I just say Shaun Higgins out? Yes he is out, we all knew it would happen didn’t we!  Not injury though, just dropped!  If you haven’t dumped him yourself yet, then it is high time you did so!
  • Don’t blow all your trades in RDT and SC. This last week has shown us just how vulnerable we can all be to injury and suspension, particularly when they all hit in the same week!
  • Don’t believe all the hype on a Friday Many people try and guess who will be out, but really teams can’t rest everyone.  Having said that, Geelong play Melbourne this week, so those guys with a niggle may be a little risky.  I would check with Roy’s Rumour Mill first though, he is always on the ball!
  • Captains don’t get easier with Gaz out!  Make sure you check out Calvin’s Captains from earlier in the week.

Wow what a week in Fantasy Footy we have had this week.  SO many things to consider.  I would be not rushing into your decisions this week and making sure that the decisions you make are the best ones for you in the long term, particularly in RDT and SC.  Hopefully we don’t get any late outs with all the carnage we have already experienced this week as I am sure there are a lot of teams out there (read mine) with little to no bench cover thanks to the pricing structures this year.  Best of luck and catch you all in the twittersphere over the weekend @pkd73.

67 Comments

  • Great read dunny . I’ve settled on GAJ to Barlow (finally get the chance to trade him back in). Slapping the C straight on him….Gun. And goddard to Zaharakis. If all goes well with no carnage I’ll DDP into forwards next week , upgrade Cloke to Goddard and Nroo to K.Jack.

  • Looks like Priddis sneaks under everyone’s radars again. Average of 107, dopped a ton I think 3 times and 2 of those were a 97 & 98. not prone to go big but id rather take consistant tons then a 140 then a 65 from stevie j the next week.

    Going for a risky this week and bringing in caddy to the middle to cover the benched rocky. 250 000 and will use as bench cover for the rest of season

    • Yeah I’ve gone Priddis to cover Ablett. Can’t argue with consistency.

    • I did have a look at Priddis, it is more the form of the Eagles that worries me. If they do start playing poorly I am worried for his scoring.

      • The Eagles playing good or bad doesn’t effect his scoring at all as he scores by getting his own ball and laying takcles

  • Swallow, mcveigh, Hanley, Simpson, jaensch, suckling (bews,simpkin)
    Pendles, Barlow, SJ, beams, swan, jelwood, Shenton, Langdon (rockliff, ablett)
    Martin, sandi (lowden, currie)
    Martin, Parker, grey, dahlhaus, chapman, McGovern (red path, Cameron)

    Have $277k before 2 trades, ablett going plus ??

    Thoughts peoples

    Was thinking simpkin and ablett for maybe Duncan and dal santo, swapping Langdon to def bench as cover and having these two in mid this week, swapping them back to def or fwd next week.

  • What’s the thoughts on Macrae??
    That green vest came out of nowhere last week. Surely he’s not a chance to be sub again.

    • Wouldn’t have thought so, I think that was a one off kick in the bum. Hopefully he takes it that way and dominates this week.

  • No macrae. Simple as that. If you have then trade. McCartney has slammed his efforts.

    • Yeah I’m not sure whether to start beefing up the back line (trade out Jaensch, Suckling or Langdon) or upgrade Macrae.

  • im still not sure whether i should be bringing in Stevie..

    • I had him sitting in my team all week, but have just changed my mind in favour of Barlow. Stevie’s tackles last week were boosted by the conditions and if he had his average number of tackles (5.5) instead of 14, he only would’ve scored 109. Moreover, after getting 29+ touches in 5/6 games at the start of the year, his highest possession tally since is 29 which happened all the way back in Rd 7. Not enough evidence to say he’s back if you ask me. I’d rather spend a bit more in a week or two if he continues to score 110+ than take the risk now vs a reliable performer like Barlow or Pendles (but might consider Stevie if I already had these two).

      • but u can say that about anything really, if it hadnt of been such crappy weather he might have got more touches/marks, he also gave away 4 frees (avging 1 against per game before the weekend) so if he got his avg number of frees against u can +9… bartel would have got about 80 had he got his avg tackles. some games he will tackle huge and get few touches and some he will get 30+touches and loads of marks and few tackles. atleast u know he doesnt have to rely on a certain stat to score well.

        but i agree, barlow > SJ. just depends who ppl have… im getting sj this week cuz its really between him and JPK for me as i have the others. just see more upside on SJ atm

  • Jpk or Libba??

  • Great stuff Dunny. Don’t forget Hibbo is out too!

    • Bloody hell, yes I forgot about him, probably because he was out last week too. And people said this game was too easy these days!

    • And Treloar, don’t think he was mentioned

  • Dunny thoughts on going Gaz to Duncan this week in hope to swing duncan forward next week and trade out Danger or chapman for hopefully rocky ?

    • If I didn’t already have Rocky I’d probably do something like this. Good move.

  • Still not sure who to bring in for Gaz/goddard:
    JPK, Libba, Stevie J, B.Ellis, Priddis, Bartel, NDS, Sloane, Heppell, Fyfe, Parker, Jack, Greenwood…
    Aaarrggghhhh gonna be a tough one!

    • Stevie J and then its a toss up between priddis , JPK for me unless a DPP link will be handy for you.

    • Griffen in doubt = forget Libba.

      I agree with tom: Stevie J and probably JPK.

  • would like peoples opinion on getting sidebottom 105 average 98 BE often goes big and an awesome run home and is only in 1.5% of teams a sneaky POD???

    • could well be worth the risk !

    • SO wanted to get him in this week. The only problem was that I already have Pendles, beams and swan. I love sidey great record against essendon, loves the mcg (playing there for the rest of the season), he can go huge and is an awesome POD. BRING HIM IN

  • Really awesome article dunny, just wondering if you can help me out please thinking of going

    Ablett- liberatore
    MaCrae- greenwood

    Should I get rid of maCrae or not also is libba the best option or should I go Kennedy or fyfe or stevie J?? If I don’t get rid of MaCrae I would just do a bench downgrade to get more money? Unless hibberd I’d going to miss next week again?

    Thanks!!

  • Hey Dunny, best article you’ve ever done IMO!
    I have a dilemma on who I should get out of NDS and Bartel. I am trading Jaensch and I would like to grab some cash. NDS and Bartel both have great runs home but Bartel is more likely for a rest. Is it worth the risk bringing him in this week or do I go the safe option in NDS. Also, I brought in Hanley last week because I thought he was going to get a rest against the bulldogs.

  • Good read dunny… Who would u trade in for langdon… Hodge , Hanley or dal santo?

    • Hodge scoring well but too injury prone. Hanely scoring well but likes to burn his owners with the occasional 40..

      Get on my POD Mackie :) but don’t tell anyone else ;)

  • Thanks Dunny, great read again

    Do you think it’s worth a trade in RDT to avoid a donut this week and create a FWD/MID DPP link? Have 5 trades after trading GAJ
    Also what are your thoughts on Brad Ebert as a cheap unique instead of Barlow?

  • Bloody Griffen in doubt again!! >=(

    I held onto Libba in some teams thinking he’d be ok with Griffen back. And I even traded him into a couple of other teams this week (for Ablett/Rockliff)..

    Now he’s every chance to spud up another 60… fmdt.

  • Last night when I went to bed I was all set to go Gaz to Stevie J and upgrsde a def to Bartel in both Fantasy and RDT (leaving 4 trades left) but that niggling doubt over Geelong and their tendency to use the general and have late outs keeps niggling at me and the risk of bringing in 2 cats… plus the worry over whether SJ is back after just a blip or still struggling

    Instead contemplating Gaz to JPK this week and do the upgrade to Mitchell down back next week… means playing Suckling and one of Langdon/KK/Honeychurch/Shenton/Kersten this week (Leaning to KK maybe) but then can swing Suckling to D7 next week

    Or even screw the BE and price drop and grab Mitchell this week anyway (as keeping him til end of season anyway)

    Or maybe go the safer JPK/Mitchell route in RDT and the riskier SJ/Bartel route in Fantasy…

    Agghhhh the Friday scramble dilemmas of an indecisive mind!

  • Thanks to Higgins I now can only afford a sub-$512k midfielder to replace Ablett.

    I was going to go Griffen for sheer value but sounds like he is ill. My options are now:

    Sloane
    Ebert
    Gibson
    O’Meara
    Boyd
    N. Jones

    I am leaning towards O’Meara as I’m thinking he might get plenty of the ball with Prestia taking main tag. Plus he’s very unique.

    • Wait on final teams for Griffen – he might still play. Surely someone will notice if he doesn’t board the plane tonight.

    • It’s also possible that O’Meara might get targeted for the tag as well, as he’s been playing well the past few weeks. Another sub-510K option is Montagna..

      Also, Heppell will be cheap next week after jerkface Macaffer tags him to 50 this round, if you want to wait a week on a better premium.

  • Jeremy July 11, 2014 7:35 am
    Swallow, mcveigh, Hanley, Simpson, jaensch, suckling (bews,simpkin)
    Pendles, Barlow, SJ, beams, swan, jelwood, Shenton, Langdon (rockliff, ablett)
    Martin, sandi (lowden, currie)
    Martin, Parker, grey, dahlhaus, chapman, McGovern (red path, Cameron)

    Have $277k before 2 trades, ablett going plus ??

    Thoughts peoples

    Was thinking simpkin and ablett for maybe Duncan and dal santo, swapping Langdon to def bench as cover and having these two in mid this week, swapping them back to def or fwd next week.

  • I hope you’re wrong about Stevie J. I have precisely 513k after Birchall > Hanley so Ablett > SJ is about my only choice.

  • Thinking going Ablett to Stevie J and then upgrade langdon to Duffield, dont have other good options to replace landgon. any other ideas?

  • Who to field out of Kersten, Shenton, Mcgovern and Langford? (pick one)

  • Should I play Martin and Jacobs and bench sandi?

  • Really torn between hodge and hanley

    • Hanley

    • With Redden and Rocky missing, Hanley will attract the first tag

      • except that west coast don’t have any taggers in their team

        • Gaff

          • lock in hanley for 100 pts this week depending on weather conditions. you can hold me to that :)

        • Doesn’t mean they won’t send someone to tag him though. Everyone thought Libba would be safe with Cross and McKenzie out a couple of weeks ago, but Roosy gave Viney the job and he kept him to 57.

          • Exactly. Since he came back half a dozen weeks ago, Hanley has been among Brisbane’s play makers. Most weeks, others including Zorko get a bit of attention, but Fremantle recognised Hanley enough to hard tag him instead of Rocky. Both Hanley & Zorko, are very susceptible to tags, and not as resilient as Redden/Rocky in their Fantasy scoring.

  • whos a cheap mid i can grab to play this week then leave at m9 when rocky comes back?

    • I seen someone write caddy, have thought myself and cheap at 250k

      • legit just put him in my team 5 seconds before i saw your reply, his dpp is also very handy! thanks mate

        • except Caddy has the SHAKIEST JS and will probably eat a vest this week

          I think he only avoided it last week because Bews was playing
          do yourself a favour

  • Jpk or Johnson? Already have bartel, jelwood and mcveigh Parker and jack

  • Even if Griffen is out, Gold Coast don’t have a notable tagger to stop him or Libba. With Gaz out, Libba could destroy the Suns by his tackling and should win a lot of ball around the stoppages.

    I think he is still a better option then JPK because he could attract the Curnow tag around the stoppages

  • MaCrae to Greenwood? Or Stevie J or libba?

    What does everyone think of Greenwood he hasn’t been mentioned at all?

  • Repost

    Swallow, mcveigh, Hanley, Simpson, jaensch, suckling (bews,simpkin)
    Pendles, Barlow, SJ, beams, swan, jelwood, Shenton, Langdon (rockliff, ablett)
    Martin, sandi (lowden, currie)
    Martin, Parker, grey, dahlhaus, chapman, McGovern (red path, Cameron)

    Have $277k before 2 trades, ablett going plus ??

    Thoughts peoples

    Was thinking simpkin and ablett for maybe Duncan and dal santo, swapping Langdon to def bench as cover and having these two in mid this week, swapping them back to def or fwd next week.

    • Duncan and dal santo would leave me 139k for next week downgrade/upgrade of McGovern and probably jaensch/ Langdon or suckling

      Bartel and Harvey would only leave me 32k for next week

      Which is better option

  • I’ve said it a few times guys. If u need to free up cash or need a undervalued premo then Andrew swallow is your man. Consistent and a workhorse. BE 80. So room for price rises especially with Roos run home. 104 & 106 last 2 weeks. He’s back to full fitness now.

  • Whos a consistent and decent defender to replace Langdon under 455,639? Thinking Duffield, Burgoyne, Harbrow

  • I’m gonna snuggle up this weekend with the remote and a box of tissues and watch NDS play our old team

  • Jeremy, your plan sounds good. That way you can get me back in your team next week via a bit of DPP action. Captain problems over!