Jeppa’s Juniors – Round 15

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What a massive week of Fantasy. Scores were well above average in Round 15 and many of us were walking around with the Jonno Brown strut. I was very pleased with a Fantasy score of 2,493, which was a new personal best. Ablett (C), Heppell, Jelwood, Cotch, Pendles, Rocky and Buddy all gave me 120+ scores so I was incredibly fortunate and yes, I bought a lotto ticket the next day. My Dreamteam finished with 2,273 and that included a donut due to Langdon’s late omission but it serves me right for having insufficient backup so let that be a reminder to you all.

As it stands, there aint a lot to cheer about from the rookie front. The highest score from both the two and one gamers this week was 53 and that came from the Crows stand-in full back! To generate cash quickly, coaches may consider spending big on established rookies in Stefan Martin, Jeremy McGovern, Anthony Miles, etc. because the outlook looks bleak. Let’s take a look at what we’ve got to work with…

 

Three-Or-More Gamers

KEEPERS

At this stage of the season, it is all about the new rookies coming through but James Aish (Mid. $363,260, 41 be AF. $353,300, 33 be DT) deserves a mention after his phenomenal Round 15 performance. Only 9,638 Fantasy coaches and 2,537 Dreamteam coaches reaped the rewards of his huge 140 Fantasy score which came from 23 possessions, 9 marks, 9 tackles and 2 goals. Well done to those that kept him! Another young Lion cub, Lewis Taylor (Fwd/Mid. $348,887, 31 be AF. $354,200, 32 be DT) also impressed. The popular dual position, forward/midfielder played out of his skin and finished with 115 Fantasy points. For a first year player, Taylor’s work rate has to be commended and he picks up plenty of uncontested possessions as a result. His owners will love the cash injection coming their way!

Anthony Miles (Mid. $389,535, 28 be AF & $376,200, 14 be DT) continues to average 25+ possessions per game and looks very settled in his midfield role for the Tigers. He scored a very respectable 93 Fantasy points against the Saints and with low breakevens, his value will continue to increase over the coming weeks. It’s hard to believe that Jon Ceglar (Ruc. $339,910, 35 be AF & $349,600, 41 be DT) is currently being selected ahead of McEvoy. Big boy was an emergency for the Hawks last weekend and Ceglar’s on field performances may keep McEvoy on the sidelines for a while longer. The young ruckman had 14 possessions, 3 marks, 1 tackle, 37 hitouts, 1 goal and 94 Fantasy points against the Suns and was one of the Hawks’ best players

Another round, another ton from Stefan Martin (Ruc/Fwd. $365,782, 1 be AF & $376,100, 0 be DT). Against a proven ruckman in Todd Goldstein, Martin had 20 touches, 6 marks, 3 tackles, 36 hitouts, 113 Fantasy points and was an important player for the Lions in their narrow win. It’s a no brainer to hold Martin and against the Tigers this weekend, I back him in for another big score. Marcus Bontempelli (Mid. $327,958, 32 be AF. $340,000, 43 be DT) was another match winner from the weekend. In his 8th career game, he kicked the goal of the year to get the Dogs over the line, not to mention another major that tied the game just prior. Bonts finished with 78 Fantasy points at the final siren and there’s a little value left in him yet.

With Mitch Brown injured, Jeremy McGovern’s (Fwd. $276,921, 16 be AF. $282,600, 38 be DT) job security just went up a notch. He had another great game up forward for the Eagles scoring 73 however, it is very likely that he’ll be playing as a key defender over the next month. Expect his scores to dip a little as a result but he will still earn his coaches plenty.

Saints pair Maverick Weller (Def. $296,640, 17 be AF. $315,400, 17 be DT) and Cameron Shenton (Fwd/Mid. $272,534, 39 be AF. $273,300, 39 be DT) continue to be serviceable after both scoring 73 Fantasy points. Both are playing key roles for the Saints so they should produce 65+ scores each week. Another young Saint, Billy Longer (Ruc. $294,421, 35 be AF. $295,900, 22 be DT) reached new heights after his 92 Fantasy points on the weekend. No offence to Longer but big Ivan paid him no respect hence why he got off the leash.

DON’T PANIC

Jack Martin (Mid. $226,086, 51 be AF. $211,700, 16 be DT) and his light frame shied away from the hardened bodies of the Hawks midfielders on a wet and rainy day in Launceston and who can blame him. He had just 7 possessions and 33 Fantasy points at the final siren but hopefully it’s a once off. Healthy breakevens means it’s still feasible to hold him.

Ryan Schoenmakers, 70 (Def. $279,897, 33 be AF. $274,400, -4 be DT) and Angus Litherland, 52 (Def. $220,942, 29 be AF & $224,700, 19 be DT) are a couple of players providing steady earnings. I’d keep them for the time being.

TRADE, TRADE, TRADE

If I haven’t categorised a player from Round 15 under ‘Keepers’ or ‘Don’t Panic’ then trade them out as soon as you can but when appropriate!

Let me point out that Patrick Ambrose, 53 (Fwd. $290,437, 52 be AF. $288,300, 53 be DT) has served his purpose and it’s time to upgrade/cash in. He has almost peaked in value so if you are keen on someone else then do not hesitate to cut him loose.

 

Two Gamers

Unfortunately, Shane Kersten’s (Fwd. $158,406, -6 be AF & $119,200, -52 be DT) performance last Friday night was not up to the standard required. He started like a house on fire with 28 Fantasy points to quarter time but could only add another 10 to his tally (didn’t touch the footy in the third) before being subbed off in the last. Looking ahead, I still feel Kersten is important to Geelong’s structure thus he should hold his spot. The Cats play the Dogs, Dees, Giants and Kangaroos over the next month so 60+ scores from Kersten should be forthcoming. Don’t be shy to pick him up as an F8 in both Fantasy and Dreamteam! Trust me.

Zak Jones (Def. $213,327, 40 be AF & $142,800, -4 be DT) is an interesting prospect. Playing off half back, the output was bleak at half time with a score of 11 but he improved and finished with a sound 42 Fantasy points at the final siren. I have no doubt that the potential is there with Jones but in just his second game, he is still adjusting to the pace of AFL. With Rhyce Shaw and Hannebery expected to return in 2 weeks from ankle injuries, I would avoid Jones in Dreamteam but for those desperate for a short term Fantasy defender downgrade, he is an option.

Darren Minchington (Fwd. $185,337, 26 be AF & $194,500, 25 be DT) started in green last weekend but played very well in his limited time on ground. He had 5 kicks, 1 handball, 2 marks, 1 tackles, 2 excellent goals and 39 Fantasy points in a quarter and a half which will see him named in the Saints 22 again next week. As a goal kicking small forward, Minchington is suited to the green vest and given his price I’d look at other options. Ben Brown (Ruc/Fwd. $135,460, 30 be AF & $112,800, 13 be DT) struggled in wet and greasy conditions at the GABBA on Saturday night and managed just 8 Fantasy points before being subbed off in the third quarter. Brown could get dropped this week but as an R4 he still provides value as a DPP swap with the inform Stefan Martin.

 

One Gamers

Mitch Honeychurch (Fwd/Mid. $132,787, 15 be AF & $112,800 DT) had just 8 possessions, 4 tackles, 1 goal and 42 Fantasy points on debut but he did avoid both the green and red vest. Looking ahead, I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t nervous about his job security especially with the Dogs playing so many mid, forwards (Hrovat, Hunter, Dahlhaus & Honeychurch) but McCartney has previously backed his youngsters for a few weeks. Looking at him in action against the Dees, it appears Honeychurch won’t be a huge scorer so unless you are desperate for a dual position forward/midfielder, I’d look elsewhere.

Even though he didn’t play a large role last Sunday night, I have high hopes for Blaine Johnson (Fwd. $107,470, 21 be AF & $98,500 DT). Like many debutants this season, Johnson started in the green vest but he did manage to score 22 Fantasy points from 32% game time. His forward pressure and booming right foot kick are excellent traits to have and Malthouse seems to love him. It’s hard to ignore Johnson at his current price but I’ll likely to wait another week before picking him up.

Jesse Lonergan (Mid. $208,687, 42 be AF & $248,300 DT) was a strong body at the contest for the Suns and against last year’s premiers he had 10 possessions (5 clearances), 5 tackles and 41 Fantasy points in just over a quarter. Lonergan’s job security is excellent but he is pricey for a player likely to average less than 70. With no obvious choices this week, you could do a lot worse than trading in Lonergan.

Luke Thompson (Def. $138,788, 7 be AF & $119,200 DT) was a late inclusion for the Showdown on Sunday and scored a respectable 53 Fantasy points all while keeping the dangerous Angus Monfries goalless. As good as he was, I doubt he’ll hold his spot with Rutten expected to return this week. For the time being, I’d also stay away from Ash McGrath, 30 (Fwd. $216,705, 53 be AF & $241,200 DT), Daniel McStay, 23 (Def. $178,377, 45 be AF & $112,800 DT), Dom Barry, 17 (Mid. $105,403, 24 be AF & $119,200 DT) and Max Warren, 13 (Def. $103,688, 27 be AF & $119,200 DT). All four were far from convincing on the weekend.

 

Keep Your Eye On

The previously mentioned Alex Woodward (Mid. $115,200, 40 be AF & $119,200 DT), Anthony Morabito (Mid. $215,100, 75 be AF & $119,200 DT) and Jarrad Jansen (Mid. $168,000, 59 be AF & $112,800 DT) are all close to be named again this weekend. Of the three, I like Morabito long term but hold off picking him up this week because he’ll likely cop the green vest if he plays.

Don’t be surprised if Michael Apeness (Ruc/Fwd. $219,500, 77 be AF & $132,800 DT) debuts this weekend. The tall South Australian is your typical key forward that can pinch hit in the ruck when required. Zac Clarke and Pavlich aren’t at 100% and even though Ross the Boss says they’re both fine, I suspect one will be spared the journey to Darwin. Apeness had 18 possessions, 7 marks, 4 tackles, 2 goals and 101 Fantasy points in the WAFL last weekend and he’s a dual position, ruck/forward. Job security is however a concern for Apeness down the track.

Note that Zac O’Brien (Mid. $168,138, 6 be AF. $150,200, -12 be DT), Nic Graham (Mid. $195,582, 24 be AF. $196,700, 14 be DT) and Brad Hartman (Fwd. $122,963, -4 be AF. $119,200 DT) are all in contention to return to AFL ranks this week so don’t rule out picking them up. O’Brien would offer a bit if he gets another opportunity, fingers crossed because he is still on my Dreamteam bench!

 

Got a question? Ask me on Twitter @JeppaDT

 

51 Comments

  • Great article jeppa. Thanks for your hard work week in and week out.
    Is Xavier Ellis still worth keeping?

    • Cheers mate. Not many realise how much time is put into my articles.

      I’d keep Ellis this week because of his BE’s (36 in Fantasy and 46 DT. Plan to upgrade/downgrade him next week though.

  • Could Jaensch reach his BE of 99 or is it time to off load?

    • Keep Jaensch regardless. Im looking at bringing him into my Fantasy team next week as a backup defender.

  • If I was going to pick a 200k midfield downgrade, who would you recommend with Martin vs Lonergan? Martin’s JS is perfect and he’s not a sub risk at all, but we’re yet to see him have any real scoring power, Lonergan at least scored well on his time on field, but is obviously more risky.

    • I’m in the exact same boat. Need one of them for M9 (sadly) and thinking Martin is probably gonna score better and has better JS.

    • I like Martin better but he’ll be ‘managed’ at some stage in the last 9 rounds

  • I need a downgrade option for Bews, who would you recommend in the backline?
    Great work as alwyas Jeppa

    • There isnt one id recommend. Luke Thompson might hold his spot, if he does then you could pick him up but JS is a worry. If you want to rite off your D8 you could get Warren but I wouldnt.

  • What is Sam Darley’s JS like?

  • Wish I had not traded out Mitch Hallahan. Still value there.

    When Rioli first got injured earlier this year, Hallahan took his place, even though he is listed as a Fantasy MID only. When Rioli came back, Hallahan was dropped, rather then re-assigned a new role. I expect Hallahan to get the gig ahead of Hartung now that Rioli is out again.

  • If Sam Mitchell returns then hallahan misses out

    • perhaps, perhaps not. It’s no certainty that Mitchell’s inclusion decides Hallahan playing, but there is an obvious correlation between Hallahan and Rioli’s roles and inclusions in the recent past.

  • Thanks Jeppa!
    After reading that, I’m considering Blaine Johnson over Kersten, is this advisable?

  • Does anyone know when leunberger is expected to be back?

  • Who to trade out first Wingard, Zorko, Suckling or even Dahlhaus.

  • Leuy 1-2 wks away mate. Returned to reserves last week. Played a half and mostly rested 2nd half.

  • I wanted to get honeychurch and B Johnson in this week. But reddens injury has changed the game. BTW random. But noticed cotchins ownership dropped 4% from 3 wks ago. 4% of coaches would be mighty pissed off lol

  • That’s an outrageous fantasy score! Well done Jeppa!

  • Is it worth holding Charlie Cameron any longer or go to B.Johnson and scoop 70k?

  • Jeppa what about Max Warren (NM DEF 103,668k). He’s got a be of 27, got only 13 on the weekend but is he worth the cash grab?

    • And he’s a one gamer too

    • I’d also stay away from Ash McGrath, 30 (Fwd. $216,705, 53 be AF & $241,200 DT), Daniel McStay, 23 (Def. $178,377, 45 be AF & $112,800 DT), Dom Barry, 17 (Mid. $105,403, 24 be AF & $119,200 DT) and Max Warren, 13 (Def. $103,688, 27 be AF & $119,200 DT). All four were far from convincing on the weekend.

    • After having langford sitting as a nonplaying cow on my def bench for 4weeks i’m making the cashgrab down to max warren. Gonna stick with langdon as my d7.

      Weather max warren continues to play or not isn’t overly important.

      Will enable me to grab one of the wizbang new dpp’ers comming out tomorrow. I assume francis is planning on doin’ something similar.

  • Fantastic, well-written article as always Jepp. Just wanted to log in to say that, and also gratz on the WTFBBQ 2493??!! Sheeyit, I had 2341 as my PB 2 weeks ago.

  • Nice work as always Jeppa you have not lead me wrong once mate.

    My team was “completed” 3 few weeks ago. I remember thinking that I could have gone 2 ways: Chase points and trade up to better premo’s straight away or or snap up the last batch of (potentially) good rooks. With the lack of decent rooks coming through now and the way this last pack of rooks is smashing it man oh man am I happy to have held off chasing points for those 2 weeks.

    In hindsight the cash that S Martin, Miles, McGovern and Kersten have/will generate and the fact that we’ve probably seen the last of the good rooks means it was VERY well worth missing out on the few extra points to get these guys in at the right time. S Martin bossing it at F6 and Miles being a serious keeper at M9 is just the cream on the cake.

    So at the end of the day, it’s a big thank you Jeppa. Your astute research has assisted me in nailing almost every single rook worth having, and helped me avoid the duds. By far the most essential DT/fantasy article.

    P.S congrats on the crazy score last week. Heppell and Cotch were amazing… spewing :P

    • Cheers Gambler!

      Your discipline with trades should be commended. Here’s hoping you finish the season strong.

  • Cheers Jeppa, great article
    I only have 6 trades left in RDT and was initially planning to hold. My forward bench is Ambrose and Lennon. Is it worth going Lennon to Kersten this week or Lennon to Blaine Johnson next week? This would
    give me the cash to upgrade Ambrose to Dangerfield and slide Stefan Martin to the bench when Leuenberger returns.

  • Im the same but I have Ambrose and Cameron. With Kersten’s JS he’s a safer bet but if you want to rite of F8 then get Blaine.

  • Every week. Every article theres always comments about what is already explained in the article. People need to properly read them before asking. Clearly max warren is covered in this article and his name highlighted to lol

  • who to go as captain? ablett or rocky?

  • Yer gambler he’s a jet. Put the C on warren to

    • Thanks, I didn’t see him covered in the article.

      Btw your sarcasm detector is either broken or non-existant mate

  • I’m tossing between cotchin and rocky mate. Ablett will wear a hard macaffer tag and Buckley has declared they wanna shut him down. Rocky and cotchin will do as they like sat. So id go rocky if u mate.

  • Do you guys reckon McGovern will become a def/fwd? Would be very useful in my trade as I can trade Langdon (D7) – Kersten (F7) for a massive cash grab rather than going Langdon-Weller/Darley/etc. (worried about L. Thompson’s JS and that’s what I have over other teams). Thoughts?

  • Gambler its working fine. Hence the sarcastic reply lol.

  • Jeppa, thoughts on Freo’s Matt Taberner ($180k in Fantasy) ?

    Had a breakout game in the Derby and got a big wrap from Ross the Boss post game.

    Only concern is JS with McPharlin and M Johnson’s imminent return.

  • Good question about Taberner, also interested in Ibbotson- good job security?

  • Who’s a good rooking downgrade in the midfield or defence (under 250k).

  • jarman impey relevance now he’s DPP (fwd/def)??? seems like hes not gonna average much above 45 though :S

  • what midfield rookie should i get?????

  • nicky dal or hibberd??

  • Looks like Redpath will start this weekend.

    What kind of scores could we expect from him, is he a KPF?