Jeppa’s Juniors – Round 14

AFL 2013 NAB Cup Rd 03 - Collingwood v Brisbane

We are almost two thirds through season 2014 and Fantasy/Dreamteam is getting very interesting. Coaches should be very close to fielding 22 ‘premium’ players in both formats and beginning to consider adequate bench players to cover for those unexpected late outs!

As far as the rooks go, we have been blessed with the arrival of Stefan Martin and Anthony Miles. Both have averaged 100+ from their three games this season and it doesn’t appear as if they will slow down anytime soon. Newcomer Shane Kersten looks very promising and there are a few waiting in the wings. Let’s get into it shall we…

 

Three-Or-More Gamers

KEEPERS

Just a reminder that from here on in, it’s all about the new rooks coming through the AFL Fantasy ranks. Youngsters in Dom Tyson, 91 (Mid. $449,357, 96 be AF. $435,000, 75 be DT), Kade Kolodjashnij, 90 (Def. $346,903, 70 be AF. $337,300, 77 be DT), Jared Polec, 71 (Mid. $383,624, 87 be AF. $367,600, 64 be DT), etc. should all have been upgraded by now, or warming your benches as temporary backup. I will however, give a quick shout out to Jack Billings (Fwd/Mid. $315,774, 36 be AF. $299,300, -5 be DT) who almost single-handedly got the Saints over the line against West Coast. He was absolutely superb and the best player on the ground in my opinion after racking up 25 possessions, 8 marks, 2 tackles, 3 goals and 119 Fantasy points. If you own Billings, hold him for now.

Stefan Martin (Ruc/Fwd. $311,493, -15 be AF & $315,600, -23 be DT) take a bow. Playing against Sandilands, I didn’t think he’d come close to a ton but he proved me wrong and scored 111, which is a mammoth effort considering Brisbane got absolutely smashed. Martin is quite agile for a ruckman and his tackle and possession numbers are quite high as a result. If you don’t have him, make sure you trade him in this week!

Another must have is Anthony Miles (Mid. $351,789, 4 be AF & $321,200, -31 be DT). He’s averaged 25.7 possessions, 2.7 marks, 6 tackles, 1 goal and 103 Fantasy points from his three games this season and been named in the bests for the Tigers in all of them. With 117 Fantasy points last weekend, Miles has proved his worth and given his role he should average a minimum of 80 from here on in. At his price, he is a cheap back up midfielder that can score big!

If you’re desperate for a cheap defender then consider Maverick Weller (Def. $271,347, 14 be AF. $276,700, -14 be DT). He’s by no means a polished user of the football but he has found a lot of it in recent weeks. Back to back scores of 81 and 98 is appealing however, he comes at a price. Given his inconsistency, I’d only consider him for Fantasy.

Less popular picks in Ryan Schoenmakers, 98 (Def. $266,612, 39 be AF. $252,300, 20 be DT), Matthew Spangher, 89 (Fwd. $313,205, 30 be AF. $324,700, 41 be DT), Marcus Bontempelli, 82 (Mid. $301,519, 16 be AF. $310,100, 11 be DT) and Jon Ceglar, 73 (Ruc. $314,666, 35 be AF. $321,400, 30 be DT) continue to perform well. Great scores and earnings means owners should hold these four for the time being.

DON’T PANIC

Those not scoring big but still earning decent coin at the minute include Sam Gray, 71 (Mid. $226,870, 18 be AF. $201,100, -10 be DT), Patrick Ambrose, 66 (Fwd. $284,897, 41 be AF. $279,100, 32 be DT), Jeremy McGovern, 58 (Fwd. $244,751, -3 be AF. $247,700, -6 be DT), Zac O’Brien, 56 (Mid. $168,138, 7 be AF. $150,200, -13 be DT), Cameron Shenton, 51 (Fwd/Mid. $258,956, 41 be AF. $258,800, 40 be DT) and Tom Cutler, 21 (Def. $218,962, 45 be AF. $211,200, 44 be DT). Keep!

TRADE, TRADE, TRADE

If I haven’t categorised a player from Round 14 under ‘Keepers’ or ‘Don’t Panic’ then trade them out as soon as you can but when appropriate!

 

Two Gamers

The Suns, Jack Martin (Mid. $230,748, 45 be AF. $217,800, 47 be DT) was a surprise inclusion against the Cats and it’s fair to assume that he is rated highly by McKenna given his instant return into AFL ranks after missing over 3 months of footy! No green vest, no NEAFL warm-up, no worries. Martin had 15 possessions, 3 marks, 6 tackles, 1 goal and 77 Fantasy points in a polished display and there is plenty of improvement to come. He’s a little expensive for the likely return that he will provide his owners so be careful.

Ben Ross (Mid. $113,687, 21 be AF & $98,500, 7 be DT) wore green for a second consecutive week but did score 21 Fantasy points from just 25% game time. Ross is playing the role required for his team but that won’t help potential Dreamteam and Fantasy owners. Yes he’s cheap but I’d still wait and see what he can do from a full game before trading him in. In the same game, Tim Broomhead (Fwd. $158,215, 40 be AF & $119,200, 23 be DT) also started in the green vest but he didn’t live up to expectations after scoring just 31 Fantasy points in just over a half of footy. I suspect that Broomhead will be dropped for the inform Ben Kennedy this Thursday night.

Stay well away from Mark Austin, 53 (Def. $180,932, 27 be AF & $213,000, 46 be DT), Elliott Kavanagh, 49 (Mid. $202,188, 46 be AF & $237,400, 73 be DT) and Nathan Wilson, 11 (Fwd. $139,577, 35 be AF & $184,400, 61 be DT). Poor job security and average scores are reasons why these players should be avoided.

 

One Gamers

Praise the DT Gods; we have a perfect forward downgrade. Shane Kersten (Fwd. $133,785, -20 be AF & $119,200 DT) is a strongly built youngster who has gained plenty from three preseasons at Geelong. He is the same height and weight as Jack Darling and they’re not too dissimilar in the way they play. Kersten works very hard on the lead and with continuous quality ball coming from the Geelong mids, he’ll be kicking plenty of goals in the second half of the season. On debut, against Gold Coast, he had 10 possessions, 7 marks, 4 tackles, 3 snags and 85 Fantasy points with plenty of improvement to come. Don’t miss the boat!

Young Darren Minchington (Fwd. $177,960, 22 be AF & $194,500 DT) is a small forward who was upgraded to the Saints senior list prior to the commencement of Round 14. His numbers haven’t been huge in the VFL and against the Eagles last weekend, he faded in and out of the match to finish with just 52 Fantasy points. Ultimately, he’s not worth picking up with Shane Kersten lurking.

Ben Brown (Ruc/Fwd. $137,059, 12 be AF & $112,800 DT) is an interesting prospect. As a dual position Ruck/Forward there is value trading him in to switch with the in form Stefan Martin. At the minute, I like Stefan Martin as a sixth forward with Jacobs and Sandi holding the two ruck spots but down the track Martin should be a R3. Owning a cheap Ben Brown means one is able to switch Martin between R3 and F7 where necessary (very handy in Dreamteam with limited trades). As a bonus, Brown looks to have decent job security with Currie and Tarrant both injured and Majak Daw out of touch. Consider.

Zak Jones (Def. $211,356, 38 be AF & $142,800 DT) wore green on debut and failed to impress me during his time on the ground. Nerves got the better of him and he had a few fumbles but like his brother, Zak loves the rough stuff and he can definitely lay a fierce tackle. I doubt Jones will hold his spot in the short term so I’d stay away at this point.

 

Keep Your Eye On

Anthony Morabito (Mid. $215,100, 76 be AF & $119,200 DT) is in great WAFL form. He had 23 kicks, 5 handballs, 3 marks, 2 tackles, 2 goals and 111 Fantasy points last weekend in a best on ground display. The hype around Perth is that Morabito will play in the Derby this week but as the sub. Watch him closely because if he performs well, albeit in limited game time, then I see him holding his spot.

Jarrad Jansen (Mid. $168,000, 59 be AF & $112,800 DT) is a prototype of the modern day midfielder. He’s 192cm, 93kgs (Fyfe is 190 & 88) and a likely inclusion for Geelong this week after some solid VFL form. Last weekend against decent opposition in Werribee, Jansen had 23 possessions, 5 marks, 8 tackles and 100 Fantasy points. He loves the contested ball and is a big tackler, which adds to Geelong’s midfield potency. I’m a big fan!

Remember Jesse Lonergan (Mid. $224,400, 79 be AF & $248,300 DT)? This powerfully built midfielder and former No. 13 draft pick has recovered from his latest broken hand and he’s gaining fitness and form in the NEAFL. Lonergan is loved by many at the Suns so expect him to suit up soon. He won’t be a massive scorer but he’s an option nonetheless.

The previously mentioned Mitch Honeychurch (Fwd/Mid. $135,500, 48 be AF & $112,800 DT), Blaine Johnson (Fwd. $115,200, 41 be AF & $98,500 DT) and Tim Membrey (Fwd. $124,400, 44 be AF & $119,200 DT) were named, as emergencies for their respective clubs in Round 14 and all were solid in the reserves after just missing selection. Expect Honeychurch to replace the suspended Daniel Giansiracusa this week but it’s likely that he’ll cop the green vest.

 

Jeppa’s Trade Strategy

FANTASY

Round 14 Score – 2168

Remaining Salary – $21,804

AFL Fantasy

Planned Trades – I may have another injury to cover this week if Hibberd doesn’t recover from a shin complaint by Friday night. If he doesn’t play, I’ll be forced to upgrade Will Langford to a premium defender, sit Hibberd on my bench and put the ‘E’ on Litherland. As an outside pick, I like Nick Malceski especially with Sydney’s draw over the next few weeks. If Hibberd does play (I’ll know prior to lockout) then my ideal trade this week would be to offload Roughead via DPP to the most inform play of the comp, Tom Rockliff. To generate the cash for my upgrade I’ll be trading Ambrose to Shane Kersten.

 

DREAMTEAM

I’m not going to lie; my Dreamteam is a little embarrassing. I have made so many knee jerk trades this season and am now feeling the heat.

Round 14 Score – 2183

Remaining Salary – $121,800

AFL Dreamteam

Planned Trades – With only 6 trades left, I am very reluctant to make any adjustment this week but I’ve got a problem in my backline with Hibberd and Langdon both in serious doubt. With Collingwood having an 8 day break, Langdon is likely to play (source) thus I’m considering Ambrose to Shane Kersten and Langford to Jimmy Bartel. If Hibberd and Langdon are both named then I’ll think about Cameron to Mitch Honeychurch (namely for his DPP) and Ambrose to Sam Jacobs via DPP. I’m not going to sleep easy however, with only 4 trades for the remaining 9 rounds!

What trades would you make?

 

Got a question? Ask me on Twitter @JeppaDT.

71 Comments

  • great read as per usual Jeppa! I am thinking of a double downgrade this week then a double upgrade next week. How does
    Robertson – Honeychurch
    cox – martin leaving me 270,000

    • Made the cox to martin move last week and recieved a score that cox has only put out like once this season. Was very pleased. Surprised you held him through 2 weeks of injury.

    • Sounds good! Might be an idea to do Robertson to Kersten via a DPP if you can. Depends on your team

  • Thanks for the article, Jeppa. I’m surprised to see you rate Miles as a “must have” cash cow. At $351k I would have he was beyond that – tho the way he’s going we may soon have to class him as a premium.

    Anyway, that a little beyond me at present – I’ve still got Tyson on the field. This week I’m planning either Gunston or Tyson to Harvey and either Charlie Cameron or, if Cameron plays, Hallahan to Kersten. Which way should I go on both these trades?

    • Probably better off trading gunston out. Tyson had 114 last time on the dogs and you are kinda relying on gunston kicking goals rather than racking up disposals to get his points. And yeah if CC plays hold, if not dump kersten.

    • The thing with Miles is he’s easier to move up to a premium than a rookie at 115k. There aren’t that many more rounds to go, so you might get caught waiting for a lower priced player to fatten up. I grabbed Miles last week and have at M8 going to M9 as soon as StevieJ bottoms out

    • I missed the boat on Miles too but he’s av. 100+ as a 351k player making him an excellent M9

      I reckon Gunston will go well against the Suns this week thus id trade TYson. Do Cameron to Kersten

  • i thought zak jones didn’t do to badly considering he only played 37% of the game for 47 points. I don’t completely agree that he failed to impress

    im not saying to trade him in right now but if he could get a consistent game then I reckon he could be a worthy down grade

    • I see what you’re saying but at this stage of the season picking up a $200k defender in Fantasy with a vest risk and questionable JS is not the way to go IMO. He’s a contender for my Dreamteam if he stops fumbling and scores/plays well this week.

      • I disagree here, he looked pretty active around the stoppages and looked well worth his 47 points

        he does have questionable JS though, but a solid option if he does get them neverthtless

        • @Jeppa, 47 points on debut after coming on in the 3rd quarter is not too bad at all. Horse was wrapt with his effort. Then you say he is a contender for your Dreamteam with only 6 trades left, but in Fantasy with 2 trades each week you don’t want him, am I missing something?

          • I dont have a need for him in Fantasy given he’s $200k – profits are limited. Eventually i will trade Langford to a cheapy premo like Jaensch.

            If Jones plays well…scores 75+ and looks like he fits in the Swans 22 then he has to be considered at $140k in DT…unlikely though

          • that’s fair enough then Jeppa

            my main game is RDT, which is why it doesn’t seem like a bad option (as a cheap D8, pity i wasted my option on Bews)

            does look like a solid option if you’re still waiting for a downgrade for the likes of Langford/Langdon/LMac/Griffiths

    • Swans where pretty happy with Zak Jones and he has been playing as a defender in the seconds. With Shaw out and other injuries (Mitchell) and players with questionable form (Gaz) he is likely to get another Run.

    • I was impressed by Jones and with Shaw out for 3, this may be his big chance

  • I’m currently without bench cover. Is Weller a secure thing to play out the rest of the year? How would you compare him to Schoenmakers for likely fantasy scores?

    • Weller seems to be getting tagging roles. He was shaping to play on Pendlebury all day until Sidebottom tagged him with an elbow at the first bounce. Not a polished sort but I think he’s better value than others in that range.

    • Yep he should play out the season.

      id take Weller ahead of Schoen

  • Wait for Morabito for midfield bench cover or risk Ambrose to Kersten and get Miles as cover for the rest of the season? Nine trades left and I’m worried about Kersten’s ability to end up of the injured list and not having any fwd cover.

    • Damned if you do, damned if you dont.

      Ideally you should trade kersten in next week for RDT

  • Having a selection dilemma this week.

    $377,890 in the bank

    DEF: Simpson, Kelly, Hibberd, Suckling, Enright, Baguley (Litherland,Bews)
    MID: Ablett, Prestia, Pendlebury, Swan, Beams, Ward, Goddard, Griffin (Shenton, Z. Obrien)
    RUCK: Sandi, Mumford (Derickx, Currie)
    FWD: Dahlhaus, Dusty, Danger, Stef Martin, Robbie Gray, Pav (McGovern, Rohan)

    Griffin has to go out this week, I don’t trust those back injuries and lets face it he’s not a premium. So with that my 3 choices of upgrade are Barlow, Stevie J and Rocky.

    Where I am second guessing myself is although I have a bit of cash for a double upgrade with say a Pavlich/Enright/Baguley, do I upgrade or do I get Kersten in like everyone else in the competition… Which basically means the following.

    Option 1
    Griffin –> Stevie J
    Enright –> McVeigh

    Leaves $213k for next week still

    Option 2
    Griffin –> Stevie J
    Rohan –> Kersten

    Leaves $316k for next week or if I week rocky $214k

    Thoughts?

    • Option 2. Although I’d be getting rocky over Stevie J just based on form and break even. Stevie’s break even is still higher than Rocky’s this week (130 v 114). And Rohan needs to go over enright cause enright is a complete and utter lemon.

  • is it worth it going jelwood to miles?

      • why not? Jelwood has been scoring shit and miles has been scoring shit, in 3 weeks they will probably been around the same price anyway. It frees up 120k as well, just wondering why you think not? thanks

        • scoring good for miles* be*

          • I have traded Jelwood to Miles as well. I see no reason not to, he has a BE of 4, averages 100+ and comes up against the two worst teams in the comp in back to back weeks, not to mention it frees up 120k.

          • exactly what i was thinking, cheers mate

      • I hope people take this advice and don’t trade miles in :)

        Spending 90k to go Shenton > Miles now
        3-4 weeks he’ll be over 500k and those that got him will enjoy a sideways trade to someone like Prestia/Ward at M9

    • might be smart to hold onto jelwood for one more week, to see if he gets a mid/fwd status.

  • Great stuff Jeppa, just a quick question. Play Tyson vs the Dogs or Tex vs Port this week?

  • Simpson,swallow,hibberd,jaensch,suckling,Langdon (Simpkin,bews)
    Rocky,ablett,beams,Pendles,sj,swan,jelwood,Barlow (Chapman, Shenton)
    Sandi,derrickx (lowden,currie)
    Parker,Martin,dahlhaus,gray,Elliott,McGovern (s frost,Cameron)

    Thoughts for my 2 trades this week, can anyone help

    Langdon, Derrickx ?? other

    • cameron to kersten for cash and then derickx to s. martin or if you can afford jacobs, mummy

  • Great article as always Jeppa! Who’s the best down grade option for Langdon? Scott Thompson (roos) looks like he could’ve picked up form, but unsure. Cheers :)

    • Rule of thumb is to stay well clear of key defenders. consider weller but upgrade him if you can

  • is Weller a good POD D6?? Thinking about trading Suckling for him, and upgrading Selwood to Prestia? Thoughts appreciated, Thanks

  • Great read, Jeppa.

    What is Kersten’s job security like?

    • pretty good. he worked well with hawkins

      • from what I saw of the game (just Q4) – Hawkins played as the lead forward, with Kersten playing off him

        I’d be bold in saying that his score was only as good as it was due to Geelong’s POOR inside50s

        that said, i’d be jumping on as a F8 at 135k and using the spare cash elsewhere (and maybe even in RDT too, if I had the spare trades)

  • Who is the best 115k MID to get as M10?

    My strategy is to get in a 115k MID to get some cash then downgrade him to a 115k MID in the next couple of weeks to make some quick cash. So I want someone who should play in the coming weeks and make some cash.

    Thoughts/suggestions please. Woodward, Weardon, Ross and Ellis-Yolman were some I was thinking of. Also can not go any higher than 115k, need the cash now

  • I took the punt and double downgraded to kersten and Ben brown last week. Very happy. Scott said today Ben brown would hold his spot. So its his to lose. That ment I could bring in rocky and Harvey this week.

  • need help for trades;

    option 1: langdon>burgoyne and x. ellis>jack martin (14k left)

    option 2: langdon>simpson (or other defender) and b brown>zorko (meaning s. martin goes in to my forward and leaves 140k)

    option 2 means next week i can upgrade x. ellis to a premium mid

  • **** BREAKING NEWS ****

    **** CHEAP DEFENDER AVAILABLE ****

    Max Warren to debut for North Melbourne this weekend.

    $115,200

    SOURCE:
    http://www.afl.com.au/news/2014-06-25/warren-to-debut-for-roos
    http://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/pr-kangaroos–max-warren

  • No rush on warren I’d say mate. Will be a similar scorer to Joel tippet. He’s a shutdown defender. Good cheap cover. Bring him in next week for bews.

  • Good news to. Swallow confirmed good to go. Will feast on the lions and a easy run home

  • Hi Jeppa, excuse for being a noob idiot but I don’t understand how you are able to go roughead to Rockliff via dpp. Have I misunderstood the dpp thing??? First year doing afl fantasy

    • He will move either Gray, Dahlhaus or Shenton to the forward line to replace Roughead, then upgrade Roughead to Rockliff in the mids.

    • no probs mate.

      So I’ll click the ‘T’ on Roughead and then on the team list on the left I click on the blue curled arrow next to gray or Dahlhaus name (They are DPP mid, fwds) which allows me to trade Roughy to a midfielder

  • Hey jep, can we get your thoughts on max Warren? As someone with bews and aylett at d7 and 8 I’ll take anything. (Looking to move jeansch to d7 this week or next depending on hibbo)

    • Warren has scored only 55 and 26 Fantasy points in his lost two vfl games…stay away

      • cheers
        who do you think is more likely to get back in the afl side – bews or aylett?

  • thoughts on tom simpkin from stk

  • If Jeremy Taylor from GC gets a game, is he a potential defensive downgrade option?

    • Now that I’ve looked into it, doesn’t seem like he’ll be getting a game in the near future.

  • Hey Jeppa, great article.

    I have a bit of a delemma. I have Zorko on the bench in the mids and I really want to get boomer in this week for him. To get Zorko in the fwd’s I have to trade out a fwd for a mid. I’m planning on downgrading Ambrose to that mid to give the funds to upgrade zorks-boomer. Which mid rookie for M9 should I get??? J. Martin with a BE of 45, or ZOB who is much cheaper doesn’t have as good JS and has the BE of 9. Thoughts??? This is for fantasy by the way

  • Need a win this week which combo will win?

    a.) Rocky and Shenton/C.Beams
    or
    b.) Miles and Selwood

    thansk guys

    • I would say the Rocky to outscore Joel but Miles should get another 80+ score Shenton ect won’t score that high

  • Thinking this week Langdon and Langford out for Smith and Swallow

    If Langdon plays then Mcdonald out

  • Jack Martin mate. JS is very important at this time!

  • What sort of score can we expect from kersten this week?

  • Hey Jeppa. My Fantasy team is:

    D – McVeigh, Bartel, Simpson, Swallow, Birchall, Hurn (Langford, Griffiths)
    M – Ablett, Beams, Selwood, Pendles, Swan, Rocky, Barlow, JPK (Shenton, Miles)
    R – Sandi, Jacobs (Martin, Currie)
    F – Parker, Martin, Dangerfield, Zorko, Roughy, Tex (McGovern, Cameron)

    I have $167,223 left.

    I’m happy with my mids and rucks as they are set with good bench cover. Issues are no defence bench cover and an underperforming Zorko in the forwards (plus Tex).

    Thinking I should go Cameron to Kersten which gives me $210,533. Should I look at downgrading Zorko/Tex to Brown and then upgrading in the forward line next week to the likes of Gray or Harvey? Or should I just do the upgrade this week? Who would you keep out of Tex and Zorko?

  • Is it worth spending 180k to go O’Brien (not playing) > Miles at F9? Team is complete