Jeppa’s Juniors – Round 12

jep2014_rd12

Dreamteam and Fantasy are games of emotion. Sometimes it goes our way, sometimes it doesn’t. There were a heap of premo players in Round 12 that failed to live up to expectations but you’ve got to take the good with the bad.

I was lucky enough to spend last week in Tassie on holiday and finished up in Launceston drinking beers and watching a heap of footy with Warnie, Roy and Calvin. Many good times were had but all of our teams were pretty poor. If you scored over 2000 in Round 12, well done, and if you avoided injuries to Watson, Johnson, Polec and Hartung then you’re doing even better. As far as rookies go, there were the usual suspects but a couple of newcomers surprised.

 

Three-Or-More Gamers

KEEPERS

The current favourite for the 2014 NAB Rising Star award, Tom Langdon, 87 (Def/Mid. $384,697, 69 be AF. $374,900, 69 be DT) bounced back after a couple of quieter performances in recent weeks. With his DPP status, keeping Langdon means he’s flexible as a D7 or M9. I’d hold him if you can. Luke Dunstan, 89 (Mid. $377,638, 56 be AF. $362,900, 39 be DT), Kade Kolodjashnij, 82 (Def. $363,720, 70 be AF. $351,100, 74 be DT) and Zac Merrett, 87 (Fwd. $333,969, 23 be AF. $336,000, -19 be DT) are other handy backups that I would be sitting on in the short term.

Less popular rooks in Robin Nahas (Fwd. $324,540, 32 be AF. $331,000, 49 be DT) and Jarman Impey (Fwd. $230,042, -2 be AF. $229,000, -17 be DT) had scores in the 90’s last weekend. Both were named in the bests for their respective clubs and their job security is solid for now. Keep, keep, keep.

It took three games but Claye Beams (Mid. $227,369, 1 be AF. $233,600, 5 be DT) looks to have found some much needed confidence. 24 possessions, 4 marks, 3 tackles, 1 long-range goal and 93 Fantasy points were his numbers against the Western Bulldogs and after watching him closely, to me, he looked fitter and stronger. Beams is still cheaper enough to bring in for Fantasy for those that are keen.

Matthew Spangher (Fwd. $277,240, 29 be AF. $271,900, 27 be DT) deserves a mention after scoring a ton against West Coast. I still wouldn’t trade in Spangher but if you’ve got him then obviously keep him on your forward bench till he stops earning you money.

DON’T PANIC

Don’t let Ben Lennon’s (Fwd. $247,691, 61 be AF. $215,000, 58 DT) green vest put you off. Lennon only managed 7 Fantasy points in Round 12 but he’s still got plenty more to offer. Angus Litherland (Def. $168,069, -7 be AF. $180,200, -28 be DT) didn’t have a great game last weekend but 50 Fantasy points is far from embarrassing. He’s still earning decent coin so hold him for now.

Others in the same boat as Litherland include Marcus Bontempelli, 73(Mid. $240,480, 22 be AF. $230,200, -1 be DT), Xavier Ellis, 66 (Def/Mid. $256,616, 27 be AF. Mid. $263,700, 41 be DT), Charlie Cameron, 61 (Fwd. $177,095, 8 be AF. $165,500, 4 be DT), Patrick Ambrose, 56 (Fwd. $256,062, 32 be AF. $246,600, 29 be DT) and Cameron Shenton, 44 (Fwd/Mid. $223,890, 9 be AF. $234,700, 15 be DT). Hold these players.

TRADE, TRADE, TRADE

If I haven’t categorised a player from Round 12 under ‘Keepers’ or ‘Don’t Panic’ then trade them out as soon as you can but when appropriate!

Dom Tyson (Mid. $450,049, 89 be AF. $456,600, 110 be DT) copped a heavy tag from Brent Macaffer last Monday, scored only 50 Fantasy points and his breakevens have skyrocketed as a result. Trade him before he loses significant value…it’s time.

 

Two Gamers

Well one thing’s for sure, Jeremy McGovern (Fwd. $155,160, -27 be AF. $119,200, -66 be DT) can take a contested grab and if he doesn’t he’ll crash through anyone in front of him. In Round 12 against the reigning premiers, McGovern was one of the Eagles’ better players after 12 kicks, 3 handballs, 10 marks, 1 tackle, 2 goals and 88 Fantasy points. The big question is, will he hold his spot and be an effective cashcow? Personally, I think there’s a spot for McGovern in the Eagles line up for the next month of footy. I much prefer it when West Coast play two lead up forwards (McGovern & JJK) with a resting ruckman in the square and Darling running hard up the ground and doubling back. McGovern won’t average 80+ each game so don’t get carried away. For Fantasy he’s a decent downgrade option this week and I’d consider him for Dreamteam but only as an F8 given his uncertainty in the Eagles 22.

Two green vests in two weeks for Zac O’Brien (Mid. $133,376, 10 be AF. $98,500, -21 be DT) doesn’t appeal massively to potential owners but he’s scoring at a healthy rate when you consider how long he’s out on the field. O’Brien backed up his debut score of 58 from 43% game time with 23 Fantasy points from just 20% time on ground last weekend. If he plays a full game this weekend then expect a score greater than 75. Long term, he could be in and out of the side but the Lions are playing the kids thus he should play at least another 6 of the final 11 games of the home and away season.

Another bloke who could rack ‘em up if he avoided the green vest is Liam Anthony (Mid. $202,963, 35 be AF. $262,200, 75 be DT). In a half of footy, Anthony scored 57 Fantasy points and he was pretty effective around the ground. I still wouldn’t pick him up this week with plenty of value elsewhere. Brodie Murdoch (Fwd. $216,225, 24 be AF. $224,000, 22 be DT) is another I’d pass on. Scores of 62 and 52 aren’t great returns for a player priced above $200,000.

Christian Howard (Def. $136,704, 26 be AF. $169,300, 42 be DT) was revolting in his second game of the season. He could only manage 4 disposals and 14 Fantasy points in 2.5 quarters of football. After copping a red vest it looks like he’ll be banished back into the VFL.

Notable mentions to Ben Newton, 40 (Mid. $141,242, 0 be AF. $119,200, -27 be DT), Josh Walker, 35 (Fwd. $212,343, 45 be AF. $242,500, 66 be DT), Tom Simpkin, 17 (Def. $154,706, 29 be AF. $183,500, 43 be DT) and Kristian Jaksch, 15 (Fwd. $145,579, 28 be AF. $174,500, 43 be DT). Stay well away from these blokes, scoring and job security are big concerns.

 

One Gamers

Stefan Martin (Ruc/Fwd. $215,267, -2 be AF & $241,500 DT) stepped up in a big way for the Lions when it was needed most. Martin was the Lions sole ruckman and he was dominant in the air and at ground level. He finished with 17 possessions (6 clearances), 3 marks, 32 hitouts, 99 Fantasy points and was close to best on ground. At $215,267, Martin offers plenty of Fantasy value but don’t jump the gun early in Dreamteam just in case. I’ll be picking up Martin in my Fantasy forward line this week, no doubt.

Hardwick finally gave Anthony Miles (Mid. $275,122, 29 be AF & $249,800 DT) a guernsey and what do you know, he’s named in the bests for the yellow and black. Playing purely in the midfield, Miles had 19 touches, 4 marks, 6 tackles and 87 Fantasy points. Don’t underestimate how big he can go. Miles had 103 against the Hawks last season (playing for GWS) and this year in the VFL he’s averaged 110. Personally, Stefan Martin offers more at this point but I’m not ruling him out down the track.

It took six seasons but Luke Lowden (Ruc. $125,963, -8 be AF & $119,200 DT) finally made his debut against the Eagles in Launceston. Other than his haircut everything went perfectly for the big fella. Playing in the ruck against Nic Nat and Coxy, Lowden played his role and finished with 12 touches, 15 hitouts, 2 tackles, 3 important goals and 66 Fantasy points. It’s obvious that Lowden is just a temp replacement for the injured McEvoy and Hale who could both return in Round 13 so I wouldn’t pick him up.

Cameron Ellis-Yolmen, 15 (Mid. $104,532, 25 be AF & $119,200 DT) was a late change for Calvin’s favourite Matty Wright and started in green. He’s an athletic chap with a massive wingspan that suggests he should have been a basketballer. As a Crows midfielder, he’s still pretty raw but I can see the hype surrounding him. Given that he’s a fringe player and a likely green vest candidate, I’d stay away.

Rory Lobb, 53 (Ruc. $181,734, 22 be AF & $112,800 DT), Cory Dell’Olio, 48 (Fwd. $245,371, 49 be AF & $235,800 DT), Sam Dunell, 40 (Mid. $213,906, 44 be AF & $255,700 DT) and Karmichael Hunt, 26 (Mid. $202,711, 52 be AF & $112,800 DT) are not Fantasy relevant so avoid them at all costs.

 

Keep Your Eye On

Tim Broomhead (Fwd. $184,300, 65 be AF & $119,200 DT) has an abundance of talent, he’s just got to stay injury free. This medium sized midfielder is quick, a clean user of the football and plays inside and out. Broomhead was named as an emergency for the Pies in Round 12 after some solid VFL form and word is that Buckley loves him!

Jack Redpath (Fwd. $115,200, 40 be AF & $119,200 DT) is a mature age, bullocking forward that would slot in nicely at the Bulldogs. He’s got strong hands and has averaged two goals per game in the VFL this season. If Redpath is upgraded from the Dogs rookie list this week, expect him to play.

The previously mentioned Mitch Honeychurch (Fwd/Mid. $135,500, 47 be AF & $112,800 DT) was the first emergency for the Dogs last weekend so it’s fair to assume that he’s close to making his debut. Note that his recent VFL numbers have been good but not amazing.

 

Got a question? Ask me on Twitter @JeppaDT.

100 Comments

  • Great stuff Jeppa! I’m looking at getting in Stefan Martin this week and have the option of trading out Ambrose or Derickx for him. The other will go next week. What are your thoughts? Cheers

  • Martin in for billings, once derickx loses his spot, Martin to r3 and trade in a premium fwd. And Hanley in for griffiths. Fwd, mid and back almost complete. Have to take a jobes donut this week but still confident I’ll get the w. Would have got way over 2k last week but billings and griffiths have me 40 between them.

  • thoughts on bews and aylett? i’d downgraded to them both a few weeks ago so theyre my two DEF benchers, but theyre not looking good… any word or news?

  • Nice to know that those Tasmanians left you in hood enough condition to write an uber article.

    Well done Nate.

  • Make that “good enough”.

  • Damn, must read what I write before sending it off.

    Make that “mate” not “Nate”.

  • What should be the bigger priority? Bringing in S Martin in for Derickx, or getting rid of Salem for a sub 320k cash cow?
    Thanks in advance.

    • Aha! Mad DPP skills is the answer.
      Salem out.
      Shenton to midfield via DPP.
      S Martin into forwardline.

      Derickx to survive another couple of weeks to allow to top out.

      *cue the El Paso Mexican music*
      Why not try both. 8-)

  • Thanks Jeppa. Love the read, vital article every week!

    Going to bring in Martin this week and Sam Docherty (D7) to generate some cash. As soon as Broomhead plays he’s in for big Derickx!
    Buckley’s not the only one who loves the kid!

  • thanks for the wrap jepp
    im screwed just quietly, aylett, bews are stuffing me but salem is my big headache – i doubt he’ll play this week and need to contemplate a sideways trade to martin, or wait for broomstickhead/honeychurch et al.

  • Bringing in Martin for Assolo, which leaves me the question of who to field in F6 between Tex and him. Both are injury risks so that isn’t a factor, but I feel that a solo ruck is going to naturally score around 60 even on a bad day, while a full forward can be held for well under that… however if he gets that “run up an take marks in the centre square” approach going Tex can go much bigger… At this stage I’m taking Martin since I’m bitter at Tex for this week, any thoughts?

  • Nice article Jeppa

    Langdon Vs Tyson

    If Langdon and tyson are my last 2 rookies in my midfield to upgrade, do you think its priority to trade Tyson over Langdon this week?

    Tyson still has a gettable BE and has bigger scoring potential than langdon.

    • Tough one but prob upgrade Tyson first as he can be upgraded to a super premo mid while there are very few super premos in the back line Langdon can be upped to.

      • Back line is complete. They are both in my mids and i have enough cash to upgrade langdon to anyone.

        I think my team looks stronger with tyson in it (intimidation factor). I could be wrong?

    • Agreed Shaun…Langdon can sting ya with a score in the 60’s. Tyson is more unlikely to do that

  • Great article Jeppa. Any thoughts on Jade Kolodjashni? Sounds like he may get a run out soon and was wondering how he’s been scoring in the VFL?

    • Jake you mean.

      Has been going well in the VFL but given he’s a Key Position it would need an injury to Rivers, etc to crack in.

      • Well I’m sure his parents make the same mistake and also call him ‘Cake’ occasionally too. So there are officially no downgrade DEFs at present?

  • Love your work Jeppa!
    Would you trade Derickx, Lennon or Ambrose to Martin as they are my bench players?

  • Hanley or A.Swallow??

  • Thanks again Jepp you’re a marvel.

    Thinking with Billy out this week Alex Woodward may play his first game and this boy can rack them up !!

    • Lets hope so mate but I’d say Langford will come back in after his dominant VFL game last weekend

  • Good stuff Jep.
    Am gagging for a DEF downgrade for Langford – anything going?
    It’s doing my head in…

    • I have Brodie Martin (av 50, BE 29, $235k). Not a lot else out them. Or, don’t suppose you have a Mid & Def player (e.g. Langdon, Simpson) in your midfield. Do the switch and bring in someone like Beams Jr. or, if you have Fasolo in your forwards, switch & bring in McGovern (the best option probably if you have it).

    • Nothing! Maybe Zac Jones but highly unlikely

    • Langford will probably be back this week, played well in the VFL. Wait until the teams come out but his BE is still relatively low so I won’t be trading

  • what do you think of trades this week hallahan-O’brian and Watson-barlow (forced) and i have 213k for next week i can go gunston-parker or harvery and suckling to bartel or should i go walker to harvey or parker ? and then downgrade tom derix what trades should i do next week?

  • Thanks Jep.
    My first trade is Watson to Barlow.
    But what for my second trade? From
    1. Polec to Harvey leaving $66k in kitty.
    2. Polec to Beams Jr leaving $384 in kitty.
    3. Polec to McGovern leaving $457k in kitty.
    4. Either Hampson or Derickx to a low priced ruckman (not worked out the maths).
    All of the above players except Barlow are/would be on the bench (selection table permitting).

    • If Polec is M9 then I’d say go him to Beamer.

      But if Hampson/Derickx is on the field then I reckon you try to upgrade them.

    • if you can go polec to mcgovern i assume you have a dpp to use if so why not bring in stefan martin is sole ruck so has good JS also has DPP to ruck allowing to move him there maybe for derixx when he is eventually pushed out by pyke. he looked real fit and melbourne rated him highly they only got rid of him cos he kept getting injured

    • I like option 2 but hard to comment without seeing the rest of your team

    • Option 1. Always get a premo when you can

  • Looking at two trade options this week:
    1)
    Out: Watson & Enright
    In: Barlow & Hanley
    or
    2)
    Out: Watson & Ambrose
    In: A Swallow & Le Cras

    Option 1 sees me probably bringing in better players by upgrading Enright when I’ve probably got more pressing issues (like Ambrose & Shenton currently playing on my field).

    Option 2 gets rid of one of my weak spots, but the risk is that Swallow and Le Cras will lack the consistency of the other trade option.

    Anyone want to post some thoughts or advice?

    • 1

    • 2 if Ambrose is on your field

      • Yep currently Ambrose on field in FWD and Shenton on field in MID. Due to some poor rookie choices (Honeychurch – nothing so far, and Salem – almost nothing). Not all bad news, because both Ambrose and Shenton are making $ and I have other $ on the bench also. Obviously need to upgrade both, trying to decide whether to go for the upgrade now or or pull the Enright move and wait for the cash cows to finish fattening.

  • how do i add a profile pic?????

  • I feel that my two biggest problems in my team is Watson and Bews as Bews has seemingly topped out in price. At the moment the way I have it I’ve traded Watson-Barlow and Bews-SJ (started the round of with 380k in the kitty) and will look at going Hallahan/Langdon-Ibbo/Docherty and Derickx-Martin. However, I could get S. Martin or McGovern this week but that means I have to play one of them on the field this week. What makes this even trickier is if I can’t use a double dpp switch. eg. Derickx out, Martin into the rucks, Shenton into the forwards and even Langdon into the mids even. Should I hold the trades as they are or get S. Martin/McGovern in and field him. Unfortunately I really want Barlow/SJ (Barlow for his run and SJ for the huge 140+ score I reckon he’s gonna get this week) Thoughts???

    • Hard to comment without seeing your full team but I think the current trades you have are the best you can do. Especially if this is RDT

    • Team before trades are –
      DEF: K. Simpson, J. McVeigh, L. Hodge, D. Swallow, M. Hibberd, M. Suckling (J. Bews, C. Howard)
      MID: T. Rockliff, G. Ablett, D. Beams, J. Watson, D. Swan, B. Goddard, T. Cotchin, T. Langdon (C. Shenton, M. Hallahan)
      RUC: A. Sandilands, S. Jacobs (T. Derickx, D. Currie)
      FWD: D. Martin, P. Dangerfield, L. Dahlhaus, J. Gunston, D. Zorko, T. Walker (P. Ambrose, C. Cameron)
      383k left.
      Should I keep the trades the same guys or field Martin/McGovern. Also, this is fantasy.

      • Agreed, those seem the two best trades you can do. Wait a week for Martin I reckon, doesn’t improve your team as much as the others.

    • Cheers Elliot

  • Time to trade Kolodjashnij and move Bartel into my backline.

    Who should I trade in for under $543,720? I was thinking Stevie J but with a BE of 154, I might bring in someone with a low BE then swap to SJ next week instead..

    My current mids are Ablett, Beams, Swan, Barlow, N Jones, Goddard, ?, (Lloyd and Hallahan)

    Ps playing AFL Fantasy

  • Thanks Jepp

    What are people’s thoughts on the best trade below?:

    1. Watson > Rockliff, Derickx > S. Martin (not on field) – Tyson will be left on field to probably lose $

    2. Watson > A. Swallow, Tyson > Parker (will later bring Parker into FWDs once Ambrose/Cameron/Nahas have finished fattening) – also hopefully Swallow will make enough $ to make the jump a bit easier to Rocky in a few weeks.

    3. Watson > Pendles, Tyson > Hanley (next week bring in a MID-premo and swap Hanley to DEF, leaving Langdon on bench)

    I sort of like option 2, it uses an extra trade but teams are going to be complete well in advance anyways right?

    Thanks for help…

  • Another hugely helpful article Jep.

    Have a dilemma this week, with only 2 rooks left playing on my field (KK and Langdon) I was obviously looking to get rid of 1 of them with my 2 trades this week.
    But looking at SJ and Barlow’s prices I’m extremely tempted to leave them two playing and upgrade Cotchin straight to one of those 2.
    So basically it’s:
    1. KK -> Malceski/Hanley and a 100k downgrade somewhere on my bench OR
    2. Cotchin -> SJ/Barlow and Dericx -> Stef Martin

    What would be the most viable option?

    Thanks!

  • Option 2 Cotch to Stevie and derickx to martin

  • Thanks for the article Jeppa!
    Thoughts on these trades:
    Buckley > O’Brien
    Watson > Barlow
    Looking at a value pick in defence for next weeks trades, any thoughts?

    • Seems decent enough. Hard to say much without seeing the team. Defence everybody is struggling. Value pick- how much money are you talking?? I’d say Hanley is a value pick right now..

      • this is my defence after trades this week:
        Simpson, Mcveigh, Swallow, Hibberd, Langdon, Kolo (Bews, Aylett)
        Was thinking of going Kolo > Hanley next week but not sure what do to with langdon. I was thinking of value pick under 400k.
        Thanks for your advice

    • Trades are great.

      Docherty or Yeo

  • Great read Jeppa.
    What trade should I do?
    Jobe Watson for Josh Kennedy + Billings for Taylor Walker
    or
    Jobe Watson for Tom Rockliff + Derickx for Stefan Martin?

  • Best defender under $200k???
    Couldn’t find anyone except Jack Frost

    • if you’re looking at a bench spot the only person i can think of is Litherland

  • Shenton or J Lloyd on field?

    • I don’t think Shenton will get the uncontested ball that he got against the Pies against Simmonds, but then again is less likely to cop a vest

  • Should I trade Wines for Miles at M8 and trade Lennon to Chappy or trade Wines for Stevie J and trade Lennon for Stefan Martin?

  • Stuck with Gardiner (Lions). Keep or d/grsde to who???

    • should expand on that ! He’s on bench with Cutler. Got Suck, Simpson, Bartell, Swallow, Langdon, Jaensch on field. 138k in bank after I traded Jobe for Rocky.

  • You’re a bloody legend, Jeppa!

    An exciting double upgrade for me this week:

    Watson to Barlow & McEvoy to Mumford.

  • i will be getting barlow and johnson in the next 2 weeks. Who should i get this week?????????

    • Barlow as he will go up in price, but if you are short on captain options Stevie will go big this week I think

  • Option 1: Watson and Cotchin out for Rocky and Stevie J

    Option 2: Watson and Derrickx out for Rocky/Stevie J and Stefan Martin

    Option 3: Watson and Langford for Rocky/Stevie J and Ibbotson

    Thoughts please Jeppa?

  • just a quick question would u start ambrose or mcgovern?

  • why does everyone is this world have to be pox!!

  • c.beams or a.miles ???