Jeppa’s Juniors – Round 11

jep2014_rd11

 

Well isn’t it nice to have 9 games of footy again. There were plenty of good quality matches in Round 11 and I especially enjoyed watching cellar dwellers Brisbane get over the line against Carlton. The Swans were quite scary in their demolition of the Cats and they had eight players that reached the magical Fantasy ton, North Melbourne were the next best with seven.

I made a couple of poor decisions this week. A rage trade of Swanny to Heppell in Real Dreamteam was an instant regret but in the heat of the moment on Friday evening nothing was stopping me. It was a little more painful in Fantasy. With Callan Ward scoring 63 in Round 10, I decided to downgrade him to Shenton and start Polec on my field given that he was facing the Dees. What transpired was a score of 38 from Polec versus 134 from Ward! Bugger.

 

Three-Or-More Gamers 

KEEPERS

This week’s NAB Rising Star, Zac Merrett (Fwd. $303,132, 12 be AF. $295,100, -3 be DT) was the pick of the rooks in Round 11. His skills around the ground make him a huge asset for the Bombers and he reads the play so well for a first year player. Merrett had 98 Fantasy points on a big stage last Saturday night and I suspect there will be more of the same this weekend versus the Giants. If you own him, enjoy the earnings!

Dom Tyson (Mid. $445,874, 37 be AF. $455,300, 50 be DT) keeps rubbing salt into my wounds. Three back-to-back tons has me ruing a knee-jerk Round 6 trade out after his Round 5 red vest. Tyson has not only become a consistent ball winner, he’s kicking goals as well! Against the Power, he was unstoppable and finished with 30 possessions, 9 marks, 1 tackle, 2 goals and 117 Fantasy points. It’s a no brainer to hold him for a while yet. A week off for Luke Dunstan (Mid. $366,489, 60 be AF. $342,800, 46 be DT) appears to have done him wonders. The solidly built teenager fought hard against an unstoppable Collingwood midfield. In a losing side, Dunstan had 10 kicks, 10 handballs, 4 marks, 5 tackles, 1 goal and 92 Fantasy points. He didn’t look fatigued like he did before the Saints Round 10 bye so if you’ve still got him then I’d hold.

When you least expect it, rooks can come from nowhere and provide owners with a big score. Will Langford (Def/Mid. $318,048, 31 be AF. Def. $321,800, 34 be DT) was a late inclusion for Jordan Lewis last Sunday and he took his second chance with both hands, amassing 20 possessions, 1 mark, 8 tackles, 1 goal and 90 Fantasy points. Reasonably healthy breakevens in Fantasy and Dreamteam means you should hold him for at least one more week. Tom Derickx (Ruc. $280,782, 90 be AF. $286,600, 25 be DT) has been another great pick up for his owners. For a player who was only meant to play a couple of games at the start of the season, big Tom is now one of this year’s most important cashcows as a R3 for most teams. Against Geelong last Thursday night Derickx had 12 touches, 3 marks, 18 hitouts, 4 tackles, 2 very good goals and 81 Fantasy points. I suspect that Mike Pyke will need a week in the NEAFL before taking Derickx’s place so hold him for now.

I hope you all picked up Cameron Shenton (Fwd/Mid. $197,756, -19 be AF. $196,000, -42 be DT)! The handy dual position player improved a little further in his third game scoring a very respectable 83 Fantasy Points. Playing back pocket for the Saints, Shenton has the ball coming into his defensive 50 pretty frequently thus he’s involved in the play more often than your typical lockdown defender. Against a barrage from Collingwood, Shenton finished with 24 possessions, 6 marks and 2 tackles and although he had a couple of skill errors, he stood up pretty well under pressure. A good get!

Luke McDonald (Def/Mid. $312,537, 52 be AF. $304,000, 54 be DT) deserves a mention after the role he played for the Roos in their big win over the Eagles. On his way to 81 Fantasy points, McDonald continually delivered the ball lace out to teammates and set up the Roos in their forward thrusts from defence. His DPP status means he’s a handy D7/M9 at this stage of the season but long term, if trades allow you to, you should be looking to upgrade him to someone with a better average.

DON’T PANIC

With Corey Enright touch and go with an ankle injury, Jed Bews (Def. $178,643, 8 be AF. $159,900, 17 be DT) should hold his spot in the seniors for at least one more match. He wasn’t convincing against the Swans but with his current low breakevens, there are still plenty of earnings to come from him yet.

There are a heap of youngsters with decent job security still earning good dollars. If you own Jason Tutt, 70 (Fwd. $302,525, 33 be AF. $307,000, 49 be DT), Jake Lloyd, 68 (Mid. $255,450, 13 be AF. $258,400, -2 be DT), Patrick Ambrose, 65 (Fwd. $239,522, 15 be AF. $220,200, -2 be DT), Ben Lennon, 65 (Fwd. $254,489, 22 be AF. $200,000, -25 DT), Mitch Hallahan, 64 (Mid. $291,502, 21 be AF. $299,500, 25 be DT), Brodie Martin, 61 (Def. $221,875, 2 be AF. $251,500, 13 be DT), Xavier Ellis, 53 (Def/Mid. $245,438, 38 be AF. Mid. $234,600, 2 be DT), Lewis Taylor, 50 (Fwd/Mid. $289,935, 41 be AF. $292,200, 42 be DT), Ryan Schoenmakers, 50 (Def. $279,468, 43 be AF. $275,400, 48 be DT), Billy Hartung, 43 (Mid. $255,956, 45 be AF. $186,000, 2 be DT) and/or Charlie Cameron, 35 (Fwd. $156,850, 12 be AF. $145,700, 17 be DT) then hold on to them for now.

TRADE, TRADE, TRADE

If I haven’t categorised a player from Round 11 under ‘Keepers’ or ‘Don’t Panic’ then trade them out as soon as you can but when appropriate!

Let me highlight Jared Polec’s (Mid. $402,339, 103 be AF. $392,700, 108 be DT) disappointing effort against the Dees in Alice Springs. A score of 38 is a good enough reason to trade him out immediately! Polec was never going to be a top 8 midfielder, just a stepping-stone to the likes of Rockliff, Pendlebury, Stevie J, etc.

After a disappointing score of 57, his lowest of the season, it is time to trade Kade Kolodjashnij (Def. $360,775, 73 be AF. $351,000, 84 be DT). He had a whopping 40 Fantasy points to quarter time but could only manage another 17 to the final siren. With Kolodjashnij‘s current breakevens, I’d look to maximise your profits.James Aish (Mid. $366,286, 84 be AF. $352,600, 82 be DT), Tom Langdon (Def/Mid. $376,248, 64 be AF. $376,400, 93 be DT) and Jack Billings (Fwd/Mid. $332,762, 68 be AF. $330,200, 81 be DT) are in a similar boat. All are at risk of dropping in price this week so why hold them!? Jaensch and Cloke are a couple of cheap ‘near’ premo options that cost just a little more than these youngsters.

 

Two Gamers

There’s not much excitement coming from the two gamers this week. Claye Beams (Mid. $197,857, 22 be AF. $198,800, 16 be DT) is the best bet but with an average of just 53 playing a midfield role, his price outweighs his return in my opinion. Job security doesn’t appear to be an issue for Beams, thus if you’re patient with potential earnings then he’s a safe bet. Matt Dea (Def. $192,346, 26 be AF. $219,600, 41 be DT) is the other option but averaging a little less than Beams and is equally as expensive. Additionally, Dea is filling the void for the injured Nick Vlastuin at the minute so expect him to be dropped in a week or two when his predecessor returns.

 

One Gamers

Standout NEAFL performer, Zac O’Brien (Mid. $122,921, -3 be AF. $98,500 DT) started in the green vest for the Lions in Round 11 but came on just before half time after Trent West was subbed off with a season ending knee injury. O’Brien is one of those players that is always in the right spot at the right time. From only 43% time on ground, he managed to gather 15 possessions, 2 marks, 2 tackles, 1 goal and 58 Fantasy points which is an awesome effort on debut. No doubt, O’Brien will hold his spot in the short term but he’s still a green vest risk. Nevertheless a cheap O’Brien is a Fantasy lock this week but I’d wait and see how he goes in his second match before picking him up in Dreamteam.

Christian Howard (Def. $135,664, 11 be AF. $169,300 DT) did little to convince coach Brendan McCartney to keep him in the Bulldogs 22. Howard was a late in for Matty Boyd and played half back against the Dockers. His recent VFL form has been excellent but he was hardly sighted on his way to 11 possessions, 1 mark, 4 tackles and 47 Fantasy points. He’s a fringe player at the Dogs so I’d look at other options but if you’re desperate for a rookie priced defender then he’s your only option!

There wasn’t much to take from Brodie Murdoch’s (Def. $204,734, 23 be AF. $224,000 DT) first game of the season. He scored a respectable 62 but looked lost and made a few notable skill errors that could see him dropped this week. At $200,000+ in both Fantasy and Dreamteam, I wouldn’t touch him. Same applies for Liam Anthony (Mid. $200,487, 50 be AF. $262,200 DT). Anthony is a noted ball winner but he just can’t cement a spot in North’s 22. He was the sub last weekend and scored 27 Fantasy Points so at his price why bother!?

Kristian Jaksch (Fwd. $145,271, 13 be AF. $174,500 DT) deserves a quick mention. He was given the job on Gunston last weekend but had 4 goals kicked on him. Coach Leon Cameron has made mass changes all season and given that Jaksch is one of many young key defenders on the Giants list, he’s likely to be used intermittently. Pass.

 

Keep Your Eye On

Stefan Martin (Ruc/Fwd. $203,600, 70 be AF & $241,500 DT) – With Trent West gone for the year and Leuenberger still out for a couple of months, Stefan Martin is a certainty to get a senior call up this week (source). Playing predominately forward last season, Martin only averaged 45 Fantasy points per game but as Brisbane’s current number one ruckman that average will be improved upon dramatically. Martin is a suitable R3 option this season and his DPP status gives you more flexibility going forward. With Sam Jacobs touch and go this week, a cheap Martin shouldn’t be ignored.

Zak Jones (Def. $224,900, 77 be AF & $142,800 DT) – A slight knee injury to Dane Rampe may open the door for hard running defender Zak Jones. Brother of Melbourne Captain Nathan, Zak is equally as tough and also loves the contested ball. He is highly rated at the Swans and was selected with pick 15 in last year’s draft. Jones has been named in the bests for the Swans Reserves for four consecutive weeks so watch him closely.

Darcy Lang (Mid. $222,200, 76 be AF & $137,800 DT) – After Geelong’s poor performance last Thursday night there could be a few changes on the horizon and Lang is certainly in contention for a call up. He’s very quick, has neat skills and can play a variety of positions. I see Lang playing between half forward and wing for the Cats and I have little doubt that he’ll make an instant impact at AFL level. Can play!

Anthony Miles (Mid. $279,700, 96 be AF & $249,800 DT) – Surely after another lacklustre effort from Richmond, Miles will finally get his chance to suit up for the seniors? He had 35 possessions, 7 marks, 2 tackles and a massive 121 Fantasy points in the VFL last weekend thus would be first in line for a senior call up. Miles doesn’t come cheap this year and note his current breakeven of 96 in Fantasy. It may pay to wait a week before bringing him in but please be aware that he has reached 90+ scores in the past.

 

Got a question? Ask me on Twitter @JeppaDT.

I am on holiday in Tasmania at the moment but I will try and get to your queries when I have some spare time and decent internet access!

73 Comments

  • Thanks Jeppa!

    I’m thinking of holding off on Shenton this week to get Martin or Smith (whichever plays) due to the questions around Jacobs playing. I don’t have Derrickx, so I think I need some bench cover this week.

    Trades would be Ambrose->Martin via Thurlow
    Macrae->Barlow

    Thoughts? Really happy that Thurlow has helped with this trade as I have been absolutely kicking myself for picking him over Derrickx.

    Cheers again!

    • In an ideal world, next week is Robertson sideways to Shenton and Langdon->Jaensch

    • Good call Flyn, nothing would sting more if Jacobs was a late out!

    • shenton is guaranteed to make decent coin this week and Macrae could easily go big vs Brisbane.

      Consider getting Shenton this week then upgrade to Barlow next week?

  • Nice article Jeppa.

    Didn’t see a mention for Gus Litherland. BE of -15 in Fantasy, plus he pretty much won the game for the hawks. Thoughts?

  • Nice work Jeppa – I was one to benefit from Ward over Polec ;)
    What are your thoughts on Litherland? I thought he stood up well in the last quarter when the game was on the line.

  • How far away is Morabito?

  • Sorry Gents…Litherland slipped through the cracks.

    As good as he was against the Giants, he’s a fringe player at the Hawks. Unless you’re desperate, I wouldn’t pick him up in DT. As far as Fantasy goes, O’Brien is the number one downgrade option this week…a score of 58 in less than a half of footy is massive.

    If for whatever reason you need to get Litherland, make sure its as your D8 as that position can become obsolete.

    • Thanks Jeppa.

      My only concern is that if I get O’Brien it means I have to field Jake Lloyd or Hallahan in my mids. If I get Litherland, I will be fielding Langdon instead which I think is preferable. Thoughts?

    • In all honesty is he really on the fringe? gibson is still 6 weeks away, Stratton injured, Cheney just plain shit, I reckon theres a spot for him for the forseeable future.

    • cheers Jeppa!

      your sage advice just cannot be over-stated in its value!

      thanks,
      j959

  • Is bringing in Shenton at his price worth it (or O’Brien)? Or is it better to wait a week or 2 for a better downgrade?
    Him and C.Beams would be my mid bench

  • And sorry thanks for a great article as usual mate!

  • Hey Jeppa.

    Great article as always.
    What’s a better trade trading Langdon to Simpson and playing Ambrose on field or Ambrose to Riewoldt and trading Langdon next week?
    1st trade is Taylor to O’Brien.

    • Ooo tough one. Kade Simpson can go big! Start Ambrose (plays GWS) but sort it out the week after

  • cheers jeppa.
    my fwd line: danger parker martin gunston dahlhaus wingard (tex, shenton)
    upgrading polec to goddard/barlow/sj?
    then downgrading wingard to f8 and fielding tex. who should i get? charlie cameron, jaksch?

    • Not sure either Cameron or Jaksch are great options. I have Cameron and am just praying he gets a couple more games, but am not confident. Read Jeppa’s assessment on Jaksch above. Sounds very tentative. And for your premium trade – definitely not Stevie J this week. His BE is 160, meaning his price will drop at least this week and probably for the next 2 or 3. I’d definitely go Goddard (BE 66), tho Barlow (BE 102) is also good.

    • Stefan Martin

    • No!!! No fwd rooks id recommend other than shenton.

      Cameron isnt a big scorer and Jaksch will be in and out of the team

      other options?

  • Salem, Ellis or Hallahan on ground this week?

  • Great job as always Jeppa.

    Might wait a week to see what Zac O’Brien does this week. The sub effected 58 will stop his price going up too much I think.

    Does anyone have any info on Matty Crouch and Sam Lloyd? They aren’t on injury lists, have they been playing in 2nds? Likely to get call up soon? Expect there might be a few changes at Richmond this week at least.

    • pretty sure lennon has taken LLoyds spot at the tigers, and the cameron stole crouch’s. plus Brad Crouch is listed as a test this week so should be back within 1-2 weeks and matt will be out of the 22 again.

    • Crouch was dropped against Carlton because he hadn’t played AFL footy for 3 weeks, but he didn’t do enough to get back into the team against Gold Coast so I don’t see him getting a game any time soon, especially with his brother only 2 weeks away

    • Lloyd had 5 touches and a goal last week in the VFL so he wont be returning anytime soon but Hardwick makes some strange coaching decisions IMO

      Crows have a relatively healthy list at the minute so it seems Crouch has fallen out of favour.

  • Thanks Jeppa. O’brien is the man for me.

    If you were to hold one of Fasolo and Langdon as D7 cover who would it be?

  • Thanks Jeppa, great article

    Having read your summary on Litherland I’m still not sure what to do. I’m downgrading in defence and Litherland would be the obvious option. However the DEF/MID status of Jayden Hunt (112k) would be very useful with David Swallow currently at M8 (soon to be M9) I could also get a 98k player to save cash but none of these have the DEF / MID dpp I need. Which of these options should I do?

    In defence Langford would then be D7 with 6 premos so it isn’t essential that I trade in someone who’s playing

    • David Swallow is the 3rd highest averaging defender.Interesting you would have him mid 8 or 9 ? Apologies if I misunderstood

      • No problem mate, the plan is to upgrade Langford to Steve Johnson, leaving Enright at D7 and the flexibility to move Swallow or McVeigh to the mids in case there are injuries and I have no trades left

    • A friend of mine is considering Hunt as D8 for the exact same reason.

      Personally I’d aim to have Swallow as D7 (your team must be awesome by the way) and go with someone like Zorko (will be very cheap in a week or two) as M9. Zork has fwd/mid as well!

      • Yep thanks Jeppa, down to 11 trades but came 12th for the round and moving right up the rankings. Plan will be Hunt at M10/D8 and Zorko at M9 (already have him). Thanks for your help!

  • Is it worthwhile keeping Tyson over Cotchin as M9

  • Jeppa is it worth holding on to Sam Lloyd? Is he likely to play in the coming weeks?

  • good read jeppa!
    I’ve still got enright, have langdon too, how should I get rid of first?????……. Then who should i get in?????? i can afford anyone
    (I’ve already got hooker, bartel, swallow, suckling)

  • Anyone else having trade issues on Fantasy today? When I click on the ‘Trade’ tab, none of my bench players are showing up, only the onfield players, and they’re not the ones I want to trade!

    • Not good, but try subbing the players you are trading out onto the field and then trading them.

  • Hey Jeppa great article.
    What trades do you think are better:
    Option 1- Cutler to Christian Howard and Kennedy-Harris to any forward from Le Cras down
    Option 2- Kennedy-Harris to O’Brien (Shenton to forward bench via dpp) and Langdon to Barlow.
    I do have Lewis Taylor starting at the moment though.
    Cheers

    • option 1…premos should be starting on your field.

      note that howard may be dropped this week

      • Thanks Jeppa.
        Who would you recommend I pursue out of Le Cras, Nick Riewoldt, Smith, Buddy, Zorko or even Sylvia if he plays?

  • nothing listed on a “recent 79” Salem?

    might just make Polec->Shenton and Watts->LeCras this week (3k short of Polec->LeCras)

    • Sorry bud…it was a ‘quick’ article this week given im on holidays.
      keep salem as he’s making good coin now

      trades above look good

  • Trying to get in Warnie’s good books by putting a Bomber on the cover?

    Awesome read again Jeppa!

  • Doing a double downgrade this week. So wanting peoples on whether I should go Polec to Shenton or O’Brien? And whether Langdon to Litherland is a decent trade?
    Thanks! :)

  • Double upgrade for me this week. Im going polec to barlow or should i go pendlebury and then im going billings to chappy… Thoughts?

  • Jeppa, I would appreciate advice. My first trade is Griffen to Rocky. My second trade:
    Option 1: Swan to Barlow
    Option 2: Billings to O’Brien

    I’m leaning towards Option 2, but would appreciate advice.

    Next week is Langdon to Bartel, and then I’m into luxury trades.

    • the selection panel might choose this one for you. Wait to see if O’Brien gets a starting gig. He could easily be the sub again. If you’re set on Bartel then I’d do that this week and you have a better gauge of O’Brien job security

  • Thoughts on Polec to O’Brien and L. McDonald to Jaensch?

    I have cash enough cash for any defender (already have Simpson, McVeigh, Shaw, Hibberd, Suckling) but Jaensch seems like good value for money?

    • like Jaensch but Simpson is number 1 option if you can afford

      too early to jump into o’brien, wait for teams to be announced. prefer brodie martin

      • Already have Simpson, as listed above. If O’Brien gets named I think these are the trades I’m gonna go with…need the spare cash for upgrades to come in the next few weeks.

  • trade Ambrose or Hallahan for O’Brien? (fantasy)