Jeppa’s Juniors – Round 8

jep2014_rd8

What a relief it is to have the dreaded Round 8 behind us! On top of managing our scheduled bye players, many of us had to deal with injuries to Mitchell, Hodge, Treloar and Lobbe, the omission of Georgiou and green vests to a host of popular rookie selections in Hartung, Lloyd, Robertson, Aylett, Salem and Ellis. I was very lucky to have 19 players in AFL Fantasy last weekend and with a bit of luck finished with a respectable score of 1720. My dreamteam was a different story. Hodge’s late omission meant I only had 17 possible scorers but bringing in Kade Simpson was timely and I stumbled to 1574.

This week you should be looking at trading in a premo (or two) that had the Round 8 bye. Very few teams have all of Stevie J, Ablett, Beams, Pendlebury, Swan, Selwood, Bartel, Martin, Dangerfield, etc so look to bring in one of them this week. My must have is the Pig himself. Swanny would have benefited greatly from the week off after battling numerous niggling injuries early in this season and with the Pies facing the Crows, Eagles, Saints, Dees and Dogs over the next month, it’s blue skies ahead! To make an upgrade, we need a suitable downgrade option, so let’s get into the rookies shall we…

 

Three-Or-More Gamers

KEEPERS

In a time of need, Dom Tyson (Mid. $379,497, 35 be AF. $366,600, 7 be DT) proved invaluable for his owners. The Dogs paid him little respect last Saturday night and as a result he was able to rack up 27 possessions, 6 marks, 3 tackles, 2 goals and 117 Fantasy points. With a loose checking Richmond as his next opponent, I expect another 90+ score and given his healthy breakeven in both Fantasy and Dreamteam, he’ll be earning his owners a few more dollars yet. I wish I held him.

The rookie of the round, in my opinion, was Will Langford (Def/Mid. $276,757, 9 be AF. Def. $267,700, -12 be DT). A personal best of 91 Fantasy points in a round where we relied on our bench cover is excellent timing. On the field, Langford tried to nullify an awesome Josh P. Kennedy but found himself wining his own football especially at the clearances and he finished up with 15 kicks, 8 handballs, 4 marks and 5 tackles. With his recent DPP gain in Fantasy and incredibly low breakevens, he has become more valuable than ever! Langford’s teammate, Mitch Hallahan (Mid. $216,273, -13 be AF. $221,300, -6 be DT) also performed better than expected in Round 8. Hallahan continues to line up at half forward but his role is to push up as an extra midfielder. Clarkson would love his hardness at the contest and with more injuries hitting the Hawks; he should stick around long enough to earn another $100,000.

Who’d have thought that backup ruckmen Billy Longer, 88 (Ruc. $234,602, 4 be AF. $262,800, 20 be DT) and Tom Derickx, 65 (Ruc. $226,354, 5 be AF. $229,500, -2 be DT) would be scoring well enough to be listed as keepers. Don’t get your hopes up though, these two wont crack 60 often! Other rooks to hold on to in the short term for value and scoring potential include Jack Billings, 77 (Fwd/Mid. $309,798, 22 be AF. $310,700, 29 be DT), Lewis Taylor, 75 (Fwd/Mid. $257,767, 35 be AF. $245,700, 29 be DT) and Dylan Buckley, 68 (Mid. $258,887, 23 be AF. $249,100, 20 be DT).

DON’T PANIC

Jared Polec, 64 (Mid. $407,346, 67 be AF. $406,400, 68 be DT) didn’t have the best game last weekend but note that there should be a couple more big games from him in the near future. After a well deserved rest in Round 9, a fresh Polec will face an injury ravaged Hawthorn at Adelaide Oval then Melbourne and the Saints. Those looking to maximise profits and maintain 18 players this week may offload Polec but be warned that he should average around 90 against his next three opponents.

Josh Kelly, 68 (Mid. $340,600, 44 be AF. $336,600, 47 be DT), Patrick Ambrose, 41 (Fwd. $183,537, -1 be AF. $149,500, -27 be DT) and a green vested Jake Lloyd, 19 (Mid. $190,054, 7 be AF. $201,900 DT, -5 be DT) performed well below their expected average in Round 8 but they have a little value left in them so hold for now. Also keep Zac Merrett, 63 (Fwd. $241,017, 20 be AF. $217,900, 4 be DT), Tom Cutler, 61 (Def. $208,178, 26 be AF. $175,500, 6 be DT), Sam Frost, 61 (Fwd. $208,993, 22 be AF. $204,400, 5 be DT) and Jay Kennedy-Harris, 54 (Fwd. $257,563, 16 be AF. $265,400, 20 be DT) for the same reason.

Unfortunately, Nick Robertson (Mid. $255,068, 50 be AF. $231,000, 40 be DT) and Christian Salem (Mid. $207,568, 51 be AF & $172,800, 37 be DT) both copped vests unexpectedly last weekend. It’s clear that the Lions are playing the ‘kids’ this year thus the decision to start Robinson in green appears to be a means of managing his workload. As for Salem, well I’m shocked and annoyed that he copped the green vest for a third consecutive week. I still rate Salem very highly and he has an instant impact every time he gets a run on the field. Surely it won’t be a fourth green vest for Salem this week!

TRADE, TRADE, TRADE

If I haven’t categorised a player from Round 8 under ‘Keepers’ or ‘Don’t Panic’ then trade them out as soon as you can but when appropriate!

Depending on your bye structure, it appears to be a good time to offload Luke Dunstan, 67 (Mid. $364,223, 79 be AF. $324,200, 61 be DT) and James Aish, 68 (Mid. $365,649, 61 be AF. $359,100, 76 be DT). Both have the Round 10 bye and after average performances last weekend they have little more to gain.

 

Two Gamers

Jason Tutt (Fwd. $259,803, 12 be AF. $247,300, -2 be DT) was the better of the two gamers in Round 8 after amassing 13 kicks, 5 handballs, 1 mark, 8 tackles, 2 goals and 95 Fantasy points. As good as he was, Tutt doesn’t come cheap and he’s been in and out of the Dogs side all season thus I wouldn’t pick him. Another I’d avoid due to cost is Ryan Schoenmakers (Def. $246,871, 18 be AF. $239,700, -1 be DT). He started forward against the Swans but was push back into defence in the first quarter to try and contain a hit Kurt Tippett. Schoenmakers finished with 53 Fantasy points as a trademark defender which is right on his likely average. Pass.

Blake Acres (Mid. $216,986, 25 be AF. $122,800, -34 be DT) has no problem finding the footy, he just needs to use it better. He had 9 possessions, 2 marks, 5 tackles, 1 goal and a massive 55 Fantasy points to half time but that included a few notable turnovers. After half time, Acres ran out of legs and could only add just one more kick to his tally before being subbed off at the 15-minute mark of the third quarter. The potential is there for Acres to score big and he’s obviously very relevant in Dreamteam given his $122,800 price tag. Don’t hesitate to bring him in but if you do make sure it’s as your M10 as I suspect he’ll be up and down with his scores.

Much to my disappointment, Billy Hartung (Mid. $231,343, 1 be AF. $112,800, -62 be DT) was given the green vest for the Hawks on Friday night. He was subbed on early in third quarter after Cyril did his hammy but struggled to win the football and scored just 26 Fantasy points from 47% time on ground. With the uncertainty surrounding his job security, I wouldn’t bring Hartung in this week given he has the bye. If he’s named for the blockbuster against Port Adelaide in Round 10, then that should transpire into more game time against likely bottom 8 teams (Giants, West Coast and Carlton) in the weeks preceding.

Lastly, stay well away from Matthew Buntine (Def. $225,794, 48 be AF. $215,400, 46 be DT). He’s a lockdown defender who will average less than 50. Enough said.

 

One Gamers

As expected, Kurt Aylett (Def. $128,552, 23 be AF. $119,200 DT) copped the green vest for Essendon in their game against the Lions. He came on late in the third, was effective from the offset and scored all of his 28 Fantasy points in the last quarter alone! Fortunately, we’ll know if Aylett is the sub prior to FULL lockout on Friday evening. If he avoids the green vest then I’d take a punt and pick him up in Fantasy. Aylett has been a big ball winner in the VFL and that should carry on into the AFL especially with Essendon’s high possession style game plan. Hopefully, he’s the defender rook we’ve all been waiting for.

Cameron Shenton (Fwd/Mid. $132,778, 17 be AF. $147,500 DT) looked far from impressive in my opinion. Playing at halfback, Shenton started on Menzel got beaten and was subsequently moved to Mitch Robinson and was beaten compressively again. He finished with a mere 38 Fantasy points but it’s irrelevant to be honest because he should be dropped this week.

Please avoid Andrew Phillips, 36 (Ruc. $150,648, 24 be AF. $135,800 DT), Aiden Corr, 35 (Def. $158,132, 28 be AF. $167,700 DT), Fletcher Roberts, 26 (Fwd. $143,317, 30 be AF. $119,200 DT) and Brent Renouf, 19 (Ruc. $162,765, 42 be AF. $213,000 DT) for obvious reasons.

 

Bye Round Sleepers

In form rooks refreshed from a week off include Tom Langdon (Def/Mid. $317,256, 28 be AF. $293,200, 3 be DT), Matty Crouch (Mid. $341,621, 39 be AF. $306,600, 43 be DT) and Sam Lloyd (Fwd. $264,175, 15 be AF. $218,100, 9 be DT). All three should score 75+ this week.

If you listened to @RoyDT’s exclusive on the latest AFL Fantasy podcast, you’d know that Kade Kolodjashnij (Def. $349,197, 41 be AF. $328,800, 30 be DT) is in doubt for Round 9 due to a knee injury. If ‘KK’ misses only a couple of weeks then I’d hold him. He’s an absolute gun that should reach $400,000.

 

Keep Your Eye On

Nathan Bock (Fwd. $135,900, 25 be AF & $180,300 DT) is the perfect downgrade option for Fantasy this week. Gold Coast’s vice captain has fully recovered from a broken leg and looks set to make his long awaited return against the Saints on Sunday afternoon. In his most recent NEAFL game, Bock was best on ground for the Suns and after a solid month of reserves games he’s is ready to make an impact in the AFL.

Claye Beams (Mid. $187,400, 35 be AF & $198,800 DT) deserves some luck! He’s had a retched run of injuries for the majority of his career but thankfully got through unscathed in his first NEAFL game for the year and was named in the bests for his troubles. I suspect that Leppitch will reward Beams with selection in Round 9 but note that it will likely be as the sub.

I’m convinced that this is the week Ben Lennon (Fwd. $233,100, 40 be AF & $157,800 DT) debuts. The Tigers play Melbourne at the G and Lennon would fit nicely on a wing or at half back. His vest risk is high so I’d avoid him in Fantasy but pencil him in for Dreamteam in a couple of weeks if all goes to plan.

My mail is that Anthony Morabito (Mid. $215,100, 40 be AF & $119,200 DT) is likely to suit up for the Dockers this weekend. It’s an amazing story to return from three knee reconstructions and one would suspect that he’d be a little rusty given that it’s his first game since 2010! Don’t expect any huge scores.

 

Got a question? Ask me on Twitter @JeppaDT.

59 Comments

  • Great read jeppa.
    came at a time where we need it most!

  • Great read Jeppa! As always a great update on the rooks.

    But, you made it sound like Langford did a good job on JPK! He got destroyed!

    Everything else was good though. .. tyson is a saviour!

    • I think what Jeppa meant was that Langford was meant to go to JPK but instead of nullifying him, Langford was just going about his game and got plenty of it himself.

      • Spot on Dunny. Sorry if I was unclear.

        Langford wasnt playing a hard tag on JPK, it appeared as if he had an instruction to win his own footy.

        • Ok thanks Jeppa and Dunny.

          By the way great job Dunny for the hype up of JPK in your last Friday Scramble.

          You said he would go massive and he did!

  • Top article, Jeppa.

    I was hoping to bring in Swan and Bock (for Dunstan & Merrett). But Bock has the Sunday game. If he is named in the squad but doesn’t play I won’t be able to reverse the trades. Bummer!

    • The risk one must take sometimes.

      • henry, only do the swan trade, and wait on the other trade until sunday teams are finalised. i dont think you can reverse trades if you do them before thursday game

        • It appears he wont have the cash to upgrade to swan until he downgrades to Bock and makes some cash!

  • Great article Jep,

    Need to trade out a rd 10 bye player in my midfield, what’s the order I should be getting rid of them: Dunstan, Robertson, Cunningham???

    Also the Freo game is shaping up to be awesome this weekend, I can’t wait to be there to see the great man Pav reach his 300th game/possibly kick his 600th goal and the possible return of Mora! Just hope they can get a win against the cats.

    • Definitely get rid of Cunningham first. He’s playing a fwd tag role these days.

      Many underestimate how good Pavlich was/is! I wish he played for WCE :)

  • Great work Jeppa, always a great read.

    I was just wondering what you think of the Adelaide small forward Charlie Cameron? Upgrade this week so should get a game..?

    • Sando confirmed today the Cameron will play. Note that he’s likely to wear a green vest. He’s not a big ball winner but knows where the goals are!

  • Love your work Jeppa.
    Is Markworth and Honeychurch any chance to get game time soon?

    • Honeychurch’s VFL form has dropped off recently so hopefully he can pick it up again soon.

      Markworth is building and should feature in the second half of the season.

  • Great article Jeppa, i need a round 8 rookie for ellis, in the defence or midfield. If anyone could help thanks :)

  • I think charlie cameron’s getting a gig this week too. Finally some more rookie forwards!

  • Great article as always Jeppa!
    Do these sound like good trades?
    Patton to danger
    Macrae to swan

  • Nice work as usual!

    Thoughts on fasolo?

    • Marley Williams will take his half back role. He’s in no mans land at the minute.

  • thanks jepp. i have a huge game in round ten that im prepping for. cant wait to put this great advice to effect!

  • what would you expect from Bock?

  • Love your work mate!

  • Who will have a better average? Taylor Walker, Ben Lennon or Nathan Bock. Cash isn’t an issue.

    • At seasons end…tex walker. If named, Lennon will play a few of the lesser teams and could av. 70+ early on

  • Great article Jeppa!
    I’m looking for a forward downgrade in RDT and Bock would seem the obvious choice but I’m worried about his scoring ability, especially at that inflated rookie price. Who would you pick out of him, Lennon and Charlie Cameron?

  • In RDT I like Lennon…the kid is a jet

  • Jep, would you upgrade Macrae or Polec to Swan? Macrae has averaged in the 80s the past few weeks and Polec can also have stinkers. The issue is who to keep in the long run for now..

  • good read jeppa!
    should i go
    roughead > Bartel Via DPP and Murphy > swan
    or
    Roughead > bartel and rohan to bock?

  • Looking to upgrade Kennedy Harris for a premo due to a tough fixture next round.
    Who is the best option out of Nroo or Harvey. My opponent has Roo so i could neutralize his score by getting him or look at Harvey for a POD. Thoughts?

  • Swan or SJ?

  • Great read as usual Jeppa. Any news on Miles, Cotchin was talking him up earlier in the week.

  • Great article. alot of players of interest on there. Nothing said about xavier ellis though, i dont know whether to hold or trade. havent got much to do this round.. its all luxury trades atm i guess

    • isn’t a rook (despite starting price)

      but hasn’t been mentioned, so trade away
      especially considering WC are coming back to full strength now (bar Waters) and Xellis is finding himself in the vest
      and they’ve got a bye this week too

      scoring ability depends on him avoiding said vest, which I don’t think he is doing

      • To be fair, he was coming back from injury which may explain the vest. Not a massive scorer, but for the price he could be good value. Could be worth keeping because once the 2 gets out of his rolling average he’ll shoot up in price… even more so with the 29 gone too. I might end up getting him back in as I need someone for Georgiou without breaking the bank.

  • anyone think of trading bock in this week my trades are J Merret- bock and buckley – Johnson thoghts and i hope bock plays

  • bought in Salem over Acres based on last weeks reading
    you don’t think Acres will be dropped based on that performance?

    also, do you think Bock will be vested for his season debut?

    Shenton looked pretty decent (scoring-wise) to start off with, but then had no impact after Q1

  • I’m trading Daisy to Acres in RDT. I’ll have 20+ players this week and next week, so his R10 bye doesn’t hurt me at all.

    I can then use the cash to upgrade elsewhere. Or sideways Lewis Taylor to Taylor Walker.. lol.

  • Great read as usual mate. Not sure on your call with Morabito though. He’s had plenty of runs in the twos and should come back with at least a bit of game fitness. With the dearth of good downgrade options, let’s hope his output is solid.

  • if bock plays as expected, he is a lock

  • Jeppa! Great work as always.

    I know he has the bye & he’s pretty expensive, but is Kane Mitchell finally ready to average 90 from here on in? If he does that he’ll still be a good cash cow…

    • He suits Port’s running game plan. I dont think i can name a player as fit as mitchell. No guts, no glory but wait till next week

  • Anyone know much about Charlie Cameron, has been named on interchange for Adelaide for tomorrow nights game. Bock or Cameron for a fwd line downgrade this week?

  • We have the advantage of finding out subs before Cameron is locked out .

  • Need another rookie in my team, already have ambrose, gleeson, hallahan, S llyod and georgiou. Want one more who should I pick up?