Pearcey’s B-E.S.T. – Round 2

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Round 2 is done and dusted, and what a shocking week for most coaches! Our premiums didn’t fire, our rookies didn’t fire, and after celebrating our great picks after Round 1 a lot of us came crashing back to earth after Round 2. But this week is a new week so we can all stop drowning our sorrows and look forward to Round 3.

 

Total confusion?

As mentioned last week, the change in providers for AFL Fantasy from Virtual Sports to FanHub also brings a change in the way the player prices will change from week-to week. In the past (and still with Real Dream Team) we have had a system where a player’s price changes on a 3-week rolling basis, with the first price change not being applied until a player had completed their 3rd game for the season. Now, with the change in providers we are faced with a new challenge of how the price rise/fall system works, with every player that played a game in round 2 having a change in their price, and a price change after every game a player plays!

 

After briefly looking at the price changes and crunching a few numbers I still have no idea what formula the powers-that-be have used! Here is an example of two players with fairly similar scores that had different price changes:

 

Matthew Boyd:

Original price – $563,300 (priced at an average of 103.9)
Scores of 118 & 87 (total – 205)
New price – $556,657 – Reduction of $6,643 (1.18% drop)

Brent Stanton:

Original price – $560,300 (priced at an average of 103.4)
Scores of 87 & 121 (total – 208)
New price – $546,797 – Reduction of $13,503 (2.41% drop)

 

So we have two players that started at practically the same price, have scored practically the same amount of points so far, yet one players price change is double that of the other! Even if you only base it on Round 2 you would expect Boyd’s drop to be significant more than Stanton’s.

If anyone works out the formula please be sure to comment below and share it with the DT Talk community!

 

Value, Value, Value!

Value is a great indicator of the likelihood of a player rising or falling in price from week to week. Below are a number of players from each position that represented the best ‘value’ in round 2:

(Note: Value (Dollars per point) = Price/Points scored)

 

DEFENDERS:

AFL FANTASY:

Alexis Georgiou (MEL):           Value – $1,496 per point scored

Ben Griffiths (RIC):                  Value – $1,908 per point scored

Tom Langdon (COL):               Value – $2,053 per point scored

REAL DREAM TEAM:

Alexis Georgiou (MEL):           Value – $1,279 per point scored

Tom Langdon (COL):               Value – $1,709 per point scored

Ben Griffiths (RIC):                  Value – $2,215 per point scored

 

MIDFIELDERS:

AFL FANTASY:

Xavier Ellis (WCE):                  Value – $1,505 per point scored

Martin Gleeson (ESS):             Value – $1,578 per point scored

Eli Templeton (STK):               Value – $1,694 per point scored

REAL DREAM TEAM:

Dylan Buckley (CAR):              Value – $1,581 per point scored

Martin Gleeson (ESS):             Value – $1,632 per point scored

Harry Cunningham (SYD):       Value – $1,752 per point scored

 

RUCKS:

AFL FANTASY:

Aaron Sandilands (FRE):          Value – $2,350 per point scored

Daniel Currie (NM):                Value – $2,351 per point scored

Tom Hickey (STK):                   Value – $2,771 per point scored

REAL DREAM TEAM:

Tom Hickey (STK):                   Value – $2,394 per point scored

Daniel Currie (NM):                Value – $2,432 per point scored

Tom Derickx (SYD):                 Value – $2,536 per point scored

 

FORWARDS:

AFL FANTASY:

Patrick Ambrose (ESS):           Value – $1,496 per point scored

Gary Rohan (SYD):                  Value – $2,661 per point scored

Lewis Taylor (BRI):                  Value – $2,831 per point scored

REAL DREAM TEAM:

Patrick Ambrose (ESS):           Value – $1,279 per point scored

Lewis Taylor (BRI):                  Value – $1,683 per point scored

Jarman Impey (POR):              Value – $2,563 per point scored

 

I wont comment too much about the players listed above as the majority of them will be covered in a lot more detail in the outstanding article that is “Jeppa’s Juniors’ but I will say that if you are playing both forms of the game (AFL Fantasy and Real Dream Team) make sure that you study both sets of prices as even though both competitions use the same scoring system that is pretty much the only element that is the same, all player prices, break-evens, price changes etc are all very different. If you want to be successful at each make sure you treat them as two very different competitions.

 

Fallen premiums…

There were a number of players that had a round to forget in round 2. A few of our so-called ‘premiums’ were being outshone by players that cost a lot less, but this is not all bad, it can actually be a benefit in a few rounds time. Players to keep an eye on that should represent good value over the next 3-5 rounds:

 

Ryan Griffin (WB) – Round Score: 45

In Griffin’s first game for 2014 he scored a well below-par 45, causing him to drop in price in AFL Fantasy from $571,800 to $535,444, and a possible further drop in Round 3. Griffin’s price in Real Dream Team (currently $576,300) could also be affected after his 3rd game depending on his scores in the next 2 rounds. Griffin is an absolute gun and is destined to average over 100 for the season so if his price continues to drop he is certainly one to keep an eye on.

 

Scott Selwood (WCE) – Round Score: 48

After blasting out of the blocks with 113 in Round 1, a number of coaches (including DT Talk’s own Roy) locked in Selwood as their captain against the Demons. When looking at his score after the game and seeing 96 next to his name I am sure the coaches were disappointed, expecting a score over 100. But the disappointment would have turned to utter disgust when they realised that his score was ALREADY DOUBLED after a disgusting performance of only 48 points! This caused a drop in Selwood’s AFL Fantasy price from $587,500 to $554,259 with a further drop likely after round 3. His break-even in Real Dream Team would be around 180 (approx. only) so expect his current price ($592,100) to drop over the next couple of rounds. Another player that would be an absolute bargain around the $500K mark.

 

Dean Cox (WCE) – Round Score: 51

Another who performed atrociously in Round 2, Cox meandered through the game against Melbourne, posting a score of only 51. This round 2 score resulted in a drop in price from $526,000 to $504,850 in AFL Fantasy and again a further price drop should be expected. With a break-even of approx. 145 in Real Dream Team we can expect his current price ($530,100) to drop close to the $500K range. With West Coast playing 3 talls in their first 2 games (Cox, Naitanui and Sinclair) it might pay to wait and see if this low score was just an aberration or if Cox will struggle to reach the lofty heights he has set over the past 5+ seasons.

 

Dane Swan (COL) – Round Score: 68

The DT Pig! Swanny is an absolute legend and I am not going to go on about how he ‘only’ scored 68 points in Round 2. The bloke had surgery on BOTH his wrists in the off-season which made him sit out of practically all of the pre-season ball work, so his hand skills probably aren’t as clean at the moment as we are used to. Swan is traditionally a slow starter so two rounds of sub-100 scores shouldn’t be too much of a worry. With a price drop in AFL Fantasy from $636,600 to $589,063 and an approx. break-even in Real Dream Team of 204 we could see his price plummet below $550,000 in both forms of the fantasy game. If he gets below $550K around his bye (round 8), I would be very tempted to jump on and enjoy the ride through to the end of the season.

 

A number of other players also had poor rounds and are worth keeping an eye on:

Corey Enright – 43 (injured his ankle and could possibly miss a couple of weeks)

Luke Hodge – 45 (groin injury and also could miss a week or more)

Grant Birchall – 47 (no excuses – played poorly)

Matthew Pavlich – 44 (no injury news so an off game)

Jarryd Roughead – 52 (another Hawk, another bad game)

 

Stats, stats, and more STATS!

Round 2 bought up a few statistics/numbers that I would like to share:

153 – The highest score of the round (again) this time scored by Geelong’s Steve Johnson. As the highest priced player in AFL Fantasy and Real Dream Team this season the majority of coaches would have thought his price was too high, but were we all wrong?

138 – Highest average for the season so far, held by Melbourne captain Nathan Jones. What would the odds have been for Nathan Jones to be the leading scorer after the first 2 rounds? Those coaches that got on board – well done, and enjoy it whilst it lasts, which I don’t expect will be too long.

80 – Number of points scored by Gary Ablett against Fremantles’s Ryan Crowley. Crowley’s tagging ability is well documented and seems to have a negative effect on his opponents Fantasy score, so keep this in mind whenever one of your players is likely to be tagged by Crowley.

8,000+ – Number of places that DT Talk’s own Roy dropped after a disappointing round 2. After sitting 8th after round 1 Roy put in a self-proclaimed dismal performance in Round 2 and fell back to the pack. Being a Fantasy superstar that he is I expect him to rebound strongly this week.

27,834 – Total points scored by all players in round 2, slightly down on the 28,143 scored in round 1. With most teams scoring around 1500-1600, the Bombers blitzed the pack with a massive team score of 1829! Will this be the norm under Coach Thompson?

55 – Number of players that scored over 100 in Round 2, with only Joel Selwood and Leigh Montagna being unable to exceed their 2013 average.

 

Who should I trade?

We have a maximum of two trades to use this week in both AFL Fantasy and Real Dream Team, although both are under very different scenarios, as follows:

AFL Fantasy – 2 trades per week, every week. Use them or lose them.

Real Dream Team – 2 trades per week (3 in bye weeks) but a total of 30 trades for the season.

 

Even though both games have different rules, my thoughts are that the trading strategy should be similar this week. That strategy is to trade in those players likely to go up the most in price; to generate as much cash as possible.

If you don’t have players such as Langdon, Dunstan, Tyson, Polec and Sandilands I would be bringing them in as a priority. They all seem to have great job security and are likely to rise a great deal in price over the next few weeks.

 

The next strategy to employ is to trade out any long term injuries. Players such as Hodge, Enright, Sam Mitchell and Patrick Ryder are all under injury clouds and may be needed to be traded if their injuries are likely to keep them out for a decent period. Also, those with Nathan Fyfe may consider trading (maybe only in AFL Fantasy) as he is set to spend the next 2 weeks on the sidelines due to suspension.

 

Another strategy, and one that has in the past been frowned upon but I think is becoming more popular with the 2 trades a week in AFL Fantasy, is ‘fixture-trading’. Please note – I do not recommend this in Real Dream Team, only in AFL Fantasy.

If you have all of the cheap players that are going to rise in value, no injuries to speak of, and no other problems that might require some attention, why wouldn’t you consider trading out a player that has a tough match-up for a player that plays an ‘easy’ team? Keep an eye on ‘Calvin’s Captains’ to see who he thinks is likely to go big in Round 3 and if you have no other issues maybe consider getting in one (or two) of the players he thinks are going to score well in Round 3.

 

Well, that’s a wrap for Round 2. Please feel free to offer any suggestions as to any other information you would like to see, or provide feedback on what you thought of the article, either by commenting below or by hitting me up on Twitter at @pearcey47

54 Comments

  • Can someone please explain how to DPP trade.

    • Does not appear to work for me either…

      • Everyone should write to the NAB and explain how their sponsorship image is being ruined by this hack of a company.

        • IN: Fasolo
          OUT: Higgins or caddy

          SUGGESTIONS NEEDED!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
          (afl fantasy)

    • From FanHub… not ideal, but it works:

      We are sorry you have had some issues trying to figure out our new dual position trading experience. We realise it is not perfect and are going to be improving this over the coming weeks, so please bare with us.

      In the meantime, the best way to complete a dual position trade is by doing the following:
      1) Go to the trades tab.
      2) On the left hand side select the player that you which to change their position in your team
      3) On the right hand side select the player you wish to trade in to your team
      4) A pop up will come onto your screen – please select the player you wish to trade out of your team
      5) Double check the trade has been completed as you desire

      Good luck with your trading and hopefully it holds you in good stead for the rest of the season!

      • thank you warnie.

        • Its not very intuitive. Those players that dont rely on websites like this will….just give up.

          Can I suggest a “how to” post.

          How to reverse, how to DPP trade, how to search for a specific player.

          1. How to DPP trade. Try the most obvious way, see that it doesnt work. Put the players in the most stupid combination possible.

          2. How to search for a specific player. Enter the players name in the search box, click enter, realise it doesnt work.
          Go online to work out which team player is from, select that team and scroll through until you find players name (not in any alphabetical order).

          3. How to reverse trade. Look around the team page for ages trying to find the reverse trades button. Realise its actually in the trades area.

          4. How to use the bye detector feature. Click on it, realise it doesnt work. Use DT’s Drawing Board.

          5. How to see live scores. Go to the fantasy website. Realise its down. Look at the scores on dream-stats or fanfooty.

          6. How to reverse trades using the APP. Dont, the app doesnt work.

          I know Im taking the piss, but seriously its in DT talks best interest to have express help for these “issues” as i guarantee there will be people slightly less into this game then us , or newcomers who will be so annoyed, they will just walk away.

      • When I try to trade for example selwood to riewoldt, there is no pop up, it just says “The new player cannot play in that position”…

      • “Please bear* with us”

      • Thank you Warnie! Have asked these muppets about 6 times re this for zero reply.

    • Planning to downgrade scooter to zorko and then trade out higgins out next week, moving zorko into the fwd line… but don’t want to do that If DPP trades aren’t working

      • So trade Scooter to Zorko. He’ll be in your midfield. Next week, trade Higgins and move Zorko to forwards… if the new system isn’t in place, then you hit trade on Zorko (yep, dumb) and get in who you want for Higgins (ie. the midfielder) and then a popup will come up. You change Zorko to Higgins and done.

        Hopefully the new interface will be there next week though.

  • So, I am not sure of the maths, but I think I may have at least part of the answer in regards to player price fluctuation. I think that they are using a similar model to the ATP Tennis rankings. That is, the points scored at the same time last year effect the price change of that game this year.

    So:

    Matthew Boyd was priced at 103.9 but scores an average of 104 resulting in a 1.18% price drop. But Boyd did not play in the corresponding rounds last year so therefore (I think) this has resulted in only a slight drop as those rounds would have been scored at 0.

    Brent Stanton priced at 103.4 but scores an average of 104 this results in a price drop of 2.41% which doesn’t make any sense until you look at the corresponding rounds last year where he average 128 over rounds one and two.

    Like I said, I haven’t worked out the weighting of the previous years games, but I think this is at least in part a step to a solution.

    However, as every game this year in FF will contribute to the players value with a greater weighting given to more recent games I think that we will need a few weeks to sort this out.

    What do you reckon Warney?

  • And thanks for a great article Pearcey. Sorry about my raging.

  • Hey Warnie – I traded Barlow for Hanley. Then went back to my team and subbed Hanley into defense for Landon. Then I traded Hanley for Johnson (just trying it out to see how many trades it would use, that type of thing)only to find out that now I can’t Revers my trades. When I press the button, a pop up comes that says “Pearce Hanley has moved position so you can no longer reverse trades” What? Pearce hanley isn’t even in my team anymore! Any tips on how to reverse trades?

  • I have no idea (still) on the price changes but after some quick calculations this morning I worked out that the TOTAL player prices (ie all the players added up) remained the same from the end of round 1 to the end of round 2. So therefore the total increases equaled the total decreases.
    I still can not work out why some players that have scored over there average have gone down in price. One Twitter follower suggested that there was a change in prices after Round 1 but it did not appear until after Round 2 – this may explain some of the descrepencies.
    As soon as I hear of a failsafe formula I will be sure to share. Maybe after yesterdays Fantasy Freako’s Rave with the break-evens listed someone could work it out?

  • I was thinking of Tradeing out Macrae (Not Sore really) bringing in J Kelly then Tradeing out one od Rookies in Backline, might have to keep Langdon after reading this.

    If Enright is droped I”l be Tradeing him out for Jeansch and then bringing in Swallo for a Back Rookie

  • Thoughts on Cunningham to Buckley
    Gunston to Wingard

    Thanks

  • I must be the only 1 then that had a sh%t Round 1 due to using supposedly Round 1 specials (bsased on their opponents) and got 1971 (thanks Masten for your crap 68 as captain) but if it wasn’t a free-hit round and I used my normal side would have got 2200+. Round 2 with my normal side I got 2241 (main mistake – not a biggie – was the last minute change of captain from Pendles to Barlow).
    Happy with my team this week so trading for $$$ and Barlows injury.
    Barlow – M Thomas
    Suckling – Jaensch

  • the AFL will rue their decision to change to hackhub. long live The Real Dream Team.

  • Can someone who has twitter please contact AFL Fantasy or one of the boys here and get them to hit AFL Fantasy up as to why there are no dual position trades available. I need to make one this week but the functionality is not available. Really needs to be fixed up before lock out!!

  • Can you help me out Warnie as I would like J Kelly brought in to my side but who do I trade out. My mids are Ablett Pendlebury, Beams, Cotchin, Macrae, Sheils, Tyson, Polec Ellis M Thomas. Or should I trade out Enright for Jeansch and bring in Swallow for a Rookie in Backline.

    • Without knowing your entire team and the amount of funds you have on hand its a bit hard for us to give you an opinion sorry mate.

  • on the afl fantasy app, when swaping/trading players, then try to save team it comes up as error, over salary cap??

    • Silly question but – are you over cap? If not I suggest you contact FanHub customer service for some assistance via the Fantasy website.

  • thoughts on varcoe over higgins???

  • nope got $103,000 left in the bank

  • I think the “Total Confusion” alluded to at the start of this article is actually referring to the AFL Fantasy site created by FanHub. What a disastrous association this is turning out to be. I mean the fact that they cannot get even the simple little things right on this site means that they are no hope of getting the big things right. For starters I wonder which genius sized the servers and decided that less was more. Last year there were over 100,000 separate teams created so common sense would dictate that you design to accommodate expected peaks, especially at the start of the season. Bzzzzzz. Wrong.
    And where is the information that we need such as showing us the trades that we have already made. Or being able to actually make 2 trades at once. I have tried and tried and I can’t seem to do it. I know that you can complete one trade and then go in and make another but come on. Or, as people have stated above, utilising DPP during trades. This is bloody basic stuff. It is not some exotic additional extra that people on this site have on their wishlist. Or even being able to search for players other than by team and scrolling through as Shags writes above. And forget the app. Disaster. This is killing the brand. Just go to RDT or SuperCoach and see how a real fantasy website should work. This site is deplorable. The project planning for this implementation is woeful or non-existent and the fact that these basic elements are in the process of being fixed is an indictment on all people involved in the organisation.
    Unfortunately I have induced a heap of people to play Fantasy Football with me and joined them up to this competition so I am stuck with it and their complaints but RDT is my focus.

  • thoughts on enright (if he doesnt play) to janesch and higgins up too zorko?

  • Best mid to trade in for Barlow? Have Ablett Pendles and Beams.

    Leaning towards Watson at the moment.

    • Watson would be my choice. I already have him…and Barlow. Big decisions for me this week!

  • Great post…What do people think bout going barlow to N Jones from melb as a cash grab… He is only $487k with a break even of just 28. Is it a waste of a trade or should i trade him for rockliff? Or 3 way barlow out move dusty into mids and bring in Nroo?

    Thoughts please guys, id appreciate it

    • I too have Barlow who needs to be traded out so I am going for the player I think will be the best alternative keeping in mind my bye structure. I would pick the player you think will be the highest scoring player, not necessarily the player you think will generate the most cash.

  • which 2 trades this week
    mitchell to hibberd
    gunston to zorko
    thomas to dunston
    caddy to zorko

  • G’day all. I had the same frustration as many others in trying to complete a DPP trade/swap. Finally succeeded so here’s how it worked for me. Hope this is of help.
    Fanhub call this a 3-way trade.
    Lets say you wish to trade a Mid (Barlow) for a Def (Terlich) switching a Def/Mid (Hodge) into the Mids.
    1. Click trade on Def/Mid (Hodge)
    2. Select Def (Terlich) to be traded in.
    3. Click “Make Trade” – a pop up will appear giving you the option of trading Def/Mid (Hodge) to Def (Terlich) or Trading any other Def or Mid (Barlow).
    4. Click on Mid (Barlow) to be traded out.
    5. Click Save
    You have now completed your 3-way trade!