Pearcey’s B-E.S.T. – Round 1

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Welcome to the debut of ‘Pearcey’s B-E.S.T.’ where I will bring to you the best information available to allow you to make informed decisions on changes to your team from week to week.

 

Rise or Fall?

The change in providers for AFL Fantasy from Virtual Sports to FanHub also brings a change in the way the player prices will change from week-to week. In the past we have had a system where a player’s price changes on a 3-week rolling basis, with the first price change not being applied until a player had completed their 3rd game for the season. All of the stats-gurus amongst us (and the plethora of stats-based websites available) knew how to calculate a player’s break-even, and how much their price was expected to rise or fall. Now, with the change in providers we are faced with a new challenge of how the price rise/fall system will work.

What we know so far:

–          Players prices change after 2 games

–          Players’ prices will change based on a formula that takes into account their past performances. All games played by the player since the start of the season are taken into account in the calculation of their price changes, with a sliding scale of weightings with the most recent games receiving the highest weighting. (taken from official rules of AFL Fantasy)

It is going to take a little time to work out the formula involved and to correctly ‘estimate’ break-evens and price changes. If anyone works it out or has any further information please be sure to share it with the DT Talk community!

 

Value, Value, Value!

We heard the term ‘value’ thrown around quite a bit this pre-season. Value is when a player is likely to score on average more than the price he is calculated at.

(For example: Dayne Beams is priced at an average score of 92 – most would predict he will average more than this for the year, hence him being good ‘value’).

Value is also a great indicator of the likelihood of a player rising or falling in price from week to week. Below are a number of players from each position that have represented the best ‘value’ in round 1:

(Note: Value (Dollars per point) = Price/Points scored)

Defenders:

Tom Langdon (COL): Price – $135,500, Score – 105, Value – $1,290 per point scored

Debutant Langdon was the best value of any player in round 1. With a great score of 105 he was a godsend considering the lack of quality defender cheapies available. Added bonus was his DPP (FWD/MID) eligibility.

Ben Griffiths (RIC): Price – $135,500, Score – 73, Value – $1,856 per point scored

The big back-up ruckman only played 1 game in 2013 but has already equalled that in 2014, putting together a solid score of 73. Job security seems good with Maric out injured for a number of weeks.

Honourable mentions:

Will Langford (HAW): Value – $1,935 per point scored

Alexis Georgiou (MEL): Value – $2,133 per point scored

Jeremy Laidler (SYD): Value – $2,463 per point scored

 

Midfielders:

Jared Polec (POR): Price – $135,500, Score – 85, Value – $1,594 per point scored

Polec lived up to the pre-season hype with an impressive score of 85 in round 1 for his new club. He looks to have slipped in to the Port Adelaide midfield nicely and I think we can expect a similar effort week in, week out. A must for every AFL Fantasy team.

Dom Tyson (MEL): Price – $218,400, Score – 116, Value – $1,882 per point scored

Slightly higher price but worth the extra dollars, Tyson is another who impressed in his first game with a new club. Roaming the midfield and picking up possessions at will, Tyson is another who should be considered by any serious AFL Fantasy coach.

Honourable mentions:

Harry Cunningham (SYD): Value – $1,963 per point scored

Luke Dunstan (STK): Value – $2,045 per point scored

Martin Gleeson (ESS): Value – $2,094 per point scored

 

Rucks:

Aaron Sandilands (FRE): Price – $244,500, Score – 110, Value – $2,222 per point scored

The big 211 was the only ‘value’ ruckman of note in round 1, and I would be very surprised if anyone reading this article didn’t already know of the great value he provides. Sandilands seemed to return to his halcyon days in Round 1, loping around the field freely and dominating the hit-outs like no other ruckman can. Lockity-lock!

Honourable mentions:

Jake Spencer (MEL): Value – $3,137 per point scored

Tom Hickey (STK): Value – $3,325 per point scored

 

Forwards:

Patrick Ambrose (ESS): Price – $115,200, Score – 57, Value – $2,021 per point scored

The mature age recruit started off his career at the Bombers with a handy 57 points. Looked a bit lost on the field but contested well and used his strong body to crash some packs and laid some strong tackles. Job security may be an issue but with Tom Bellchambers out for an extended period Ambrose may be able to string some games together.

Sam Frost (GWS): Price – $144,200, Score – 62, Value – $2,325 per point scored

In only his 6th game in 3 years with the Giants, this relative unknown was one if the best of a pretty bad bunch of cheaply priced forwards. Had 12 possessions, took 5 marks and kicked a goal, resulting in 62 points for the game.

Honourable mentions:

Jackson Merrett (ESS): Value – $2,456 per point scored

Lachie Hunter (WB): Value – $2,631 per point scored

Gary Rohan (SYD): Value – $2,768 per point scored

 

And on the flipside?

The 5 worst ‘value’ players for round 1:

Jack Martin (GCS): Value – $44,716 per point scored

Rhys Palmer (GWS): Value – $39,470 per point scored

Troy Menzel (CAR): Value – $32,471 per point scored

Ryan O’Keefe (SYD): Value – $31,217 per point scored

Dom Sheed (WCE): Value – $21,436 per point scored

To be fair all of the above players were vest-affected, either by sporting the green or coming off with an early injury and donning the red. Players that have a high ‘value’ can fall in to 2 categories – 1) players to watch who will have a high break-even and hence a reasonable drop in price in the coming weeks (fallen premium) or 2) players who are not that great and shouldn’t be considered for your team (crap players).

 

Stats, stats, and more STATS!

Round 1 bought up a few statistics/numbers that I would like to share:

$4,088 – price per point scored for two players on opposite ends of the AFL Fantasy spectrum – Dayne Beams and Zac Dawson. Who would you rather in your team?

19 – Number of points scored by Joel Patfull – the lowest for anynon sub-affected player.

103 – Number of players that scored over 90 for the round.

2 – Out of the 103 players that scored over 90, only 2 players scored less than their 2013 average – both DT Talk favourites – Dane Swan and Roy’s Boy Tom Rockliff.

153 – The highest individual score for the round, scored by Essendon captain Jobe Watson. Great captain choice by The Pirate!

2464 – Points that ‘PEPPER YO ANGUS’ scored to secure the number 1 overall ranking for Round 1. Congratulations!

24 – Position that Warnie finished overall in Round 1 and still managed to end up in the green vest! That means that all 3 of the DT Talk boys finished in the top 24 overall! What a top effort! I wonder how Dr DreamTeam went???

 

Complete overhaul!

For those that don’t know, the powers that be have allowed us to have a ‘free-hit’ for round 1 and unlimited trades up until lock-out in round 2. There has been many an article written about team set-up so I won’t try and re-invent the wheel, but I will offer up a couple of points to consider:

–          Price rises are going to come in to affect for all those players that will have played 2 games at the end of this round so try and pick the cheaper players that should increase in price (Polec, Dunstan, Tyson etc).

–          When picking premiums the change in price shouldn’t affect your decisions too much as you would be picking the player for their ability to score well for the entire season (the price change shouldn’t matter as you are not likely to ‘sell’ the player), although consider that some premium players may drop in price and can therefore be traded in at a later date for a cheaper price (ieCloke, Minson, Fyfe).

–          Keep an eye on your bye structure as a lot of the premium midfielders share the Round 8 bye (Ablett, Swan, Pendlebury, Cotchin, Deledio)

–          Consider the B.E.S.T. – Beams (Dayne), Ellis (Xavier), Sandilands, Tyson (Dom)

 

Well, that’s a wrap for Round 1. Please feel free to offer any suggestions as to any other information you would like to see, or provide feedback on what you thought of the article, either by commenting below or by hitting me up on Twitter at @pearcey47.

70 Comments

  • how are the player price changes for RDT calculated this year?

    • RDT price changes are the same as AFL Dream Team in the past – prices rise/fall after 3 games and then change on a rolling 3 game basis.

  • Top effort, Pearcey.

  • Great work mate!

    What are your thoughts on Young? Where does he fit amongst Tyson & Dunstan?

    • IMO he comes into consideration when you’re looking at mid priced midfielders, not the rookies. You still need to have Dunstan & Tyson.
      I currently have Shiels but am strongly considering Young if I need more cash elsewhere.
      I know you weren’t asking me, but that’s my 2 cents.

    • Young should have pretty good job security but if I was going for the players that would score better and earn me more dollars I would pick (in order): Tyson, Dunstan, Young.

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  • Great article mate. However I was under the impression that the prices will change after one game for players except in the first round which nothing will happen in.

    • Correct mate – I only read that last night after I submitted the article. Have posted a comment below.

  • EDIT – I read last night that ALL players who play in round 2 will have price changes at the conclusion of round 2, regardless if they have played 2 games or only 1. The prices will then change every round that a player plays. Will be interesting to see how the new pricing system works!

  • Great article mate, cheers.

    Looking at these two trades this week:

    Swan -> Watson/Pendles

    Thomas -> Macrae

    I’m about 2,000 short of Ablett who is my first choice.

    What say you?

    • Both Watso and Pendles are very consistent and you cant go wrong with either. If you have a numbero f other rd 8 (for the bye) mids I would lean towards Watson.
      Any alternatives to Macrae? Not sure he is going to pump out 120’s every week.

      • Priced roughly around 65 are Macrae, Shiels and Gaff.

        Even if they average 95-100, which is far more conservative and realistic than 120, they will likely be priced over 500K and that is over 150K profit.

        Will also be in no rush to trade them off, allowing focus on other parts of the ground for upgrading.

        I feel at least one, possibly two of these players will have been in the winning team at some stage this year.

        • I would lean towards Shiels. He has been over 100 before, the other 2 haven’t.

  • Any idea when B/E figures will be released? One would have to assume in the coming 24-48 hours?

    • From my understanding the round 1 scores will have nothing to do with price changes. Will just have to wait and see after round 2 finishes.

      • Hi Pearcey, this contradicts what you said in ‘Rise and Fall’, repeated here…

        Players’ prices will change based on a formula that takes into account their past performances. All games played by the player since the start of the season are taken into account in the calculation of their price changes, with a sliding scale of weightings with the most recent games receiving the highest weighting. (taken from official rules of AFL Fantasy)

        So it looks to me that round 1 scores do count, which will influence my decisions on who to bring in for round 2.

        Great article by the way :)

        • Yes agreed it is a bit of a contrasiction but the information that comment was based on only came to light after the article was written. It seems that Round 1 was a ‘free hit’ in all senses, hence price changes will only be affected by round 2 (although I di not have confirmation of this and I am purely ‘reading between the lines’). FanHub havent been too willing to divulge much information so we are all flying blind to a degree.

  • Great work pearcey
    Is it the same in rdt with players prices going up after just 1 game

  • So 3 games before prices go up in rdt

  • Wish you guys wouldn’t give my secrets away, I’ve been spending hours trying to get my team right, then you 3 seem to post my secrets on you page. I’m not just talking about this page but GRrrrrr

  • Thanks Albert

  • Anyone think that Dunstan’s output will be affected by Montagna and Hayes coming back this weekend?

    • Yes, but I’d still back him in for 80+, which makes him a better candidate than say Cunningham, Michie and maybe X.Ellis (unless you need the spare cash)

  • Would you think E.Templeton would be better rookie than Dunstan for value, hes 90k cheaper so should have easy BE’s to achieve, for Dunstan to equal Eli, he’d need +20points.

    This all considering One of Dunstan/Eli, Polec, Tyson, X.Ellis have to be benched, eli would make benching an easy decision :)

    • dunstan all day mate job security is guaranteed eli will be the first one dropped when hayes montagna and jack stev,en return dont be fooled.

    • Eli’s JS looks shakey and could be a vest candidate if named.

    • Yep agree with Steve and TwobeeMee – Dunstan looked really good on debut, Templeton will be lucky to get a gig this week with Hayes and Montagna back.

  • HELP PLEASE am considering having macrae instead of libba my only concern is when griffen returns what effect this will have on macraes scoring conversely griffens return should free libba up a little?????
    OPINIONS PLZ

    • also who thinks david swallow can maintain form this year and finish as a top ten backman

    • I would back Libba over Macrae. I think Swallow will improve on last year but not sure he will be top 10. Predict he will average around 80 for the year.

  • Thoughts on Thomas out for Tyson or Swallow

    • Yep I would go Tyson. Gives you more cash to work with elsewhere and should average similar to Thomas over the year. Tyson looked really good on debut. Dont expect 100+ every week but should knock out solid scores.

    • Either is good

  • My Mids are Looking
    Swan / Abllett / Watson / Cotchin / Beams / Macrae / Shiels Tyson
    E: Polec Ellis

    My question is should I be trading Swanny down to A Rookie say Tyson and free up cash to balance my team.
    Hesitant to do it as I reckon Swanny will go big in the rounds I don’t have him.
    Thoughts?

  • By my quick calculations thats getting close to $4M spent in the midfield, leaving you with only $6M for the other 20 players. I would definitely try and balance it out mate.

  • I’ve run a regression on 7 players (Swan, Ablett, Pendlebury, Goddard, Jelwood, S Johnson and B Harvey) and got the following to calculate the current break evens:

    Break Even price = 0.306156 x current price – 0.65372 x R1 score

    That produces an r-squared of 99.9994%

    Worked pretty well for Langdon’s -27 B/E also when you plug in his $135.5k price and 105 R1 score.

    I couldn’t make any other factors statistically significant, which is no surprise given the magnitude of the r-squared.

    Given the value predictor isn’t working yet on the site (WTF?), we don’t know exactly the new magic number or what other factors they are planning to introduce to fudge the pricing but, using the above factors alone it looks like it might be c5,390 (5,430 entering round 1, IIRC).

    They have suggested that past performance will play a role, so it could work out as something like:

    New price = 0.7x current price + 0.2x New MN x weighted current season average + 0.1x New MN x 2011-13 average

    but will probably be a lot more complicated to prevent back-calculation. Or they could just be making it up as they go along.

    Using Swan as an example, if they applied the above and he hits his 100 projected score for R2, his price would be c$620k compared to $610k if they used last year’s formula. That would fit with the stated objective of lowering price volatility this year.

    • Wow this is way over my head haha. It will be a case of wait and see with the new pricing structure. I would suggest it wont be as up and down as it has in the past and the increases/decreases will be a lot slower than in the past. Will have to nail those rookies from the start!

  • Anybody know what’s happening with the lockout with the 1st game being Thursday? Will it be a lock out on Thursday night, then re open until Friday night, or Lockout Thursday and thats it until round complete?

  • Also, will watson be a better option than cotchin for the reason richmond, gc, coll, geelong have that rd.8 bye and essendon rd.10?

    • Partial lock-out Thursday (for Richmond and Carlton players) and then a full lockout on Friday for all the other teams.

      Depending on how many other Rd 8 players you have and how your bye structure is looking as to who you pick. Both should improve on last season. I would lean towards Watson due to all the other good Rd 8 mids.

  • Hi guys,

    I’m a bit late in going over to RDT, but just madea team/league and need players.

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  • macrae or shiels ???

  • What is the go with the new pricing system? Hear me out as they said in the podcast with Fanhub if the player outscores his average he goes up and if he doesn’t he goes down.
    My point is Langdon scored 105 and has an average of 105 after rd1 if he scores a 90 this round does this mean he goes down in price because he hasn’t hit his season average?

    Seems unlogical but…

    • No one really knows at this stage. I think we will all have to wait until the end of Round 2 and see what sort of changes are applied.

  • Mate epic article.. Keen to get on players that would rise jn value.. I am thinking of shiels and Macrea in there.. Good or bad idea

    • Both recieving a lot of attention in the Fantasy world after a great pre-season and high round 1 scores. Shiels has averaged 100+ over a season a couple of years back so he has the runs on the board. Macrae on the other hand is a 2nd year player – not sure if he will sustain his current form over the season.

  • I wish to publicly state that I have been completely bitchified, manhandled and shown up as the little girl that I am. I have paid @Dools my $100 gimp fee for the invaluable lesson they have taught me on how to put a starting squad together. Furthermore I wish to publically state that I have a tiny little penis, its PATHETIC!!!

    • LMFAO you legend!!! For the record Icame7thlastyear is a bloody good sport and a bloody good bloke. We had an epic seesawing battle and truth be known, he would’ve pipped me had he not accidently put the “E” on Laidler instead of Langton…. but DT like gambling is a ruthless cut throat game and to the winner goes the spoils :) Now give him heaps!!! ;)

  • Well played Dools and a great act of sportsmanship 7th!
    I’m sure it’s not that small…

  • great read mate

    my fwd line looks like this

    roughead martin wingard caddy higgins lecras

    what do you guys think

  • Mcveigh or smitchell still can’t decide

  • if you have to choose one i would go with mcveigh

  • need a few opinions…

    barlow or j. selwood.

    Higgins or someone at a price of $320???

  • Cant go wrong with either Selwood or Barlow. Both great picks.

    As much as I dont like Higgins he is probably your best option around $300K for a forward.

  • So am i right in thinking that someone like Dangerfield’s score is likely to go down after round 2? Unless he gets his BE of 119…. Will his 1st round score affect his price change?

    I’ve read that round 1 was a complete free hit and won’t affect price changes, but I’ve also read that price changes are affected by all previous scores this season.

    Don’t fix it if it ain’t broken!

  • Do you guys think it is worth upgrading Suckling to Birchall/Hanley or save the cash?
    My Backline looks like this ATM: Mitchell, Enright, Hibberd, Swallow, Sucking, Langdon (Langford, Georgiou)

    Cheers guys :)

  • Pearcey47 if you are still there – does the loophole remain available for tomorrow night and before lockout on Friday?

    If so I was looking at putting the VC on Cotchin.

    An answer would be very much appreciated.

    • I was listening to Calvin, Roy & Warnie’s podcast earlier in the week and they were discussing the loophole choices – Cotch, Lids, Murphy etc so yes it is available.