The Numbers – Round 14

TheNumbers
The Numbers are back! After some busy times at our day job, I’ve bided my time and cleared my mind for a big run home in the 2013 season of AFL Fantasy. Many teams have faltered, whilst others have charged forward. But one thing remains the same – there is a Caro-load (see: definition for shit-load in urban dictionary) of facts and figures to get through. So where to begin?

Let’s dive right in, and get back on track with The Numbers. It’s good to be back.

3 – Fantasy points scored by Dusty Martin in Q3 of Sunday’s demolition of St Kilda. Tracking well at half-time, Martin once again let down his coaches with his inability to put in a four quarter performance – this clearly holding him back from edging into the premium bracket of Fantasy players. Cheers to our mate Mark Powell from the QLD States League for pointing this point out.

4 – Career-high tally of goals that the media’s favourite whipping boy, Jack Watts kicked against the Bulldogs in his team’s tense 3-point victory. Strong in the forward 50 and level-headed in defense, Watts took 9 marks on his way to a redemptive performance that will hopefully see him go on to have a positive end to 2013 and prove to be the beginning of his rebirth as an AFL star.

8 – Competition points that separate 8th and 9th place. With Port and the Pies sitting contently above the blue line, there are a few teams with a lot of work to do if they want to feature in the 2013 finals series. Carlton, along with West Coast, Adelaide and North will all need to start taking home the 4 points if they’re any chance, whilst the pressure is now on for those up top to finish off their hard work and not taper off ala Essendon in 2012.
11 – Weeks that ‘Gazza’ has now tonned up in a row. Undisputed the best fantasy player in all forms right now, the little master has hit the hundred mark in every game of 2013 bar round 2, where he managed only 84 against arguably the toughest team to score against (fantasy-wise) in Sydney. If this guy isn’t in the top 3 for the Brownlow, something is seriously wrong.

23 – Average disposals that teenage sensations Jaeger O’Meara has in his debut year after 12 games. Tallying a career-high 32 touches this weekend again Adelaide, the #1 on his back may well be a true reflection of his standing in the game once his career comes to a close – that’s certainly the opinion of many at the moment. High praise after only 12 games, but his performance on the field in the first half of 2013 surely has him at unassailable odds to win the NAB Rising Star. Can anyone honestly say different?

28 – Free kicks called during the Friday Night game between the Swans and Blues. Why is this worth noting? Well, for those that didn’t catch the game – at one point it appeared the umps were afraid of blowing the whistle (as if they were going to catch something from Kym Duthie by pressing their lips to the thing) by going almost a full quarter without blowing a single free Carlton’s way (although, the lack of decisions did go both ways so by no way do I infer that this decided the result). Although 28 is quite standard in a regular game, due to the ferocity and speed the game was played at (combined with the wet weather) – the high amount of questionable contact would have likely seen almost double the calls in different conditions.

29 – Times that roaring boos were hurled at reigning Brownlow Medal winner Jobe Watson during Thursday Night’s clash with West Coast. In an emotional, come from behind victory – Jobe was simply outstanding as his on-field heroics were matched by his off-field integrity. Whilst he was always going to be ribbed about the occurrences by the opposition, I for one thought it to be a bit over the top and a bit disrespectful to a man – who not long ago was being hailed as a hero and legend. People can say what they like – but let’s let the investigation run its course before damning him to eternity. Eagles fans who were a part of the ‘boo-nation’ would’ve had a sour taste in their mouth after Watson’s 29 touches and 122 Fantasy points helped his side overrun the gallant WA-side by 7 points in the last quarter. Lesson? Never boo a champion – it only makes him better and more determined to succeed.

58 – Minutes it took for Carlton to score a goal against Sydney in Friday’s game. Narrowly (and controversially) being given a fortuitous deliberate rush behind call against Nick Malceski late in the second, Josh Bootsma sunk the 6-pointer from in front to help the Blues avoid what would’ve been a highly embarrassing goalless half of footy (what would’ve been the first such occurrence at the SCG).

82 – Projected score from R14 of Tiger cub Nick Vlastuin. Unfortunately if you were one of those who had held him in the hope he would play on Sunday, he would’ve let you down as he withdrew after being named – adding his name to a growing list of Fantasy stars to screw us over in Season 2013. If you’ve still got the kid – Take his $210,000 price rise and run! Mitch Clisby looks the best downgrade or perhaps you can turn him into a premium at this point of the year.

94 – Continuing with the wet-weather theme of this week (perhaps because it’s plain old miserable up here on the Gold Coast at the moment), there were too many fumbles to count on Friday Night, particularly in the second quarter. In a game that saw arguably the most challenging playing conditions of 2013, even the most stable of hands struggled to take the simplest of chest marks as the field looked less like a footy ground and more like the set of ‘Wipeout’.

Whore of the Week

Dion Prestia, come on down! Where did this kid come from? After having an auspicious debut year at an average of 63 pts from 17 games, Prestia followed up with a further 14 games at nearly 75 points a game in 2012. Now having one of the breakout seasons, the young Gold Coast Suns, in the mold of a Leigh Montagna-type – Prestia has now comfortably cleared the 100-pt average to sit pretty at 102.4 from his 12 games in 2013. His best effort came in Round 14 as he demolished the Crows in the middle to tally 42d, 7m, 4t and 2.1 to give him an incredible 157 points. Another great example of the ‘3rd-year-breakout’ – Prestia is clearly benefiting from running beside legendary teammate Gary Jnr. Keep it up Presti and contrats!

Who am I?

Have played less than 30 games and in my second year of AFL footy, I hail from the Eastern Ranges of Victoria and am the ripe old age of 21. After having an ordinary fantasy average in 2012, I struggled to stamp my authority in the first month of 2013, not really showing any fantasy potential until Round 7. I have now averaged 101.4 over my last 5 games and fell just short of 150 points in a losing side on the weekend. Who am I?

Unique of the Week

Brad Ebert has stayed under the radar once again this year as he battled through some early-mid season struggles to now boast an outstanding average of 118.5 over his past 4 matches, with his lowest being 105. His past month has pushed his average back over 100 and with a sub-$500k price tag and coming off a huge 137 against the Pies, he looms as a potential match-winner for your team in the run home. He’s also a huge point of different, only owned by 2.21% of teams, too – so jump on.

The Round-Up

Highlights – I can’t imagine there being many with Prestia, but some of the popular players in Gibbs, Watson, Minson and Griffen had fantastic games for their coaches, whilst the West Coach boys stood up – Cox and JJK were the best of the lot. Also great to see young Andy Gaff string some form together, too.

Lowlights – Swanny’s 73 couldn’t have come at a worse time, with many (myself included) installing him as captain being burned in the process while his team spudded it up against and resurgent Port Adelaide. Vlastuin and Goodes’ omissions through injury hurt some, but luckily we can move them on thanks to the 44 trades. Duffield’s injury will be a blow to more than a few, and Rockliff’s forward-line furor will reach fever pitch soon if Vossy continues to mess with our heads by playing him forward.

Team McRath – My campaign is back on track after a solid weekly ranking and score of 2,193 pushed me well and truly back into the top-1000 and on track for my goal of a top-100 finish. Gibbs (119) and Stokes (95) were great inclusions, whilst Terlich (112) had his first back-to-back set of 100’s to pick up the slack in the absence of good form from several highly-rated (and high priced) premiums. I’m in 5 minds about what to do this week trade-wise as I’d like to bring in Clisby for cash-flow but also want to bring in Watson, but means I’ll have to say goodbye to Barlow, Deledio or Priddis in the process. Tough week ahead at the selection table for the Wrath.

Cheers to all for reading, and for the continued support. Let the world know #YourNumbers below in the comments or hit me up via Twitter @McRathDT and I’ll re-tweet the best ones.

Onwards and Upwards.

37 Comments

  • Libba? great write up

  • Great article McRath.
    I agree that Seedsman looks very interesting and has to come into some serious consideration for next year – the only issue is whether Bucks is heading the way of Ross Lyon and Crazy Vossy as players with coaches that need to be avoided!

  • Cheers McRath, great article as always. Is the who am I Seedsman? I know he’s a 2nd year player from Eastern Ranges and has been playing well lately but 101.4 is huge. Hopefully a forward next year as he seems to play high half forward a fair bit plus he’s a great kick.

  • Big Feller and Joel you do have it indeed. Seedy looks a good pick up next year if Bucks keeps his role going. Fantastic pick up in draft leagues for sure.

    Cheers for the feedback as always.

    • Great article mate, but please dont tell people to jump on Brad Ebert!! I have had him all year and is only now just starting to pay dividends….. I still think he will remain a pretty big POD for myself, with most coaches choosing people like Watson, Pendles, Jack etc to finish their last midfield spots.

  • Good work Matty. It was disgraceful that Jobe was booed by Eagles supporters – I can’t recall them ever booing Ben Cousins for any of his exploits.

    One number was very relevant for me – 78 – the three round average of Trent Cotchin. Even as a one-eyed Tigers supporter this number is very poor and he has to go.

    • It was disgraceful that Cousins was an addict. It isn’t disgraceful to support a recovering addict.

      It was disgraceful that Justin Charles took a banned performance enhancing drug and he deserved the 16 weeks suspension he got. Likewise it was disgraceful when Shane Warne (I realise he wasn’t a footballer) took a banned diuretic and he deserved the year ban he got.

      If you really want to talk about disgrace, how about Watson admitting he took a banned performance enhancing drug, similar to Warney’s (not the one on this site) diuretic and the AFL not imposing any sanctions on him, irregardless of who gave it to him.

      As for fans booing, it was disgraceful that that Brent Stanton was booed by Essendon supporters back in 2011. That really takes the cake.

      Sorry to hi-jack the thread McRath, fantastic reading as always. Anyway my rant is over.

      • Points noted Pittbulls, but you are comparing a few apples and oranges.

        Watson took an unapproved weight loss drug, not an illegal narcotic purchased from a local OMCG member. Watson was administered the drug under the direct sanction and supervision of coaching and medical staff, and he probably reasonably believed at the time he was not doing anything wrong.

        I’m obviously not a Bombers supporter, but firmly believe that Jobe Watson is one of the champions of our great game. I’d be embarrassed if I was an WCE supporter and a West Australian in general.

        • It wouldnt have mattered who Essendon played, he would have been boo’d. But oh because it was WCE supporters it means that they are a disgrace etc etc. What about the Cats supporters booing Ballantyne?? Dont hear any uproar about that do we?

          FYI – ignorance is not an excuse. Jobe took a banned drug and should be punished for it. There is no ifs or buts about it. It is irrelevant if he is a nice guy or a true champion of the game.

      • this anti-obesity drug isn’t illegal. it’s just not allowed by the sports drug code. but meth is a 100% criminal enterprise. i don’t know how you can compare cousins to watson. also the difference is that cousins acted alone, but watson more and more is looking like he was just one of many essendon players to use this practise under the supervision of the club doctor. if watson acted alone then i agree with you but because this seems to be a systemic problem within essendon i have a huge problem with people booing the one person who’s actually been honest and forthcoming.

        • Its irrelevant if it is illegal or not. Its a banned product* by the WADA so if you take it then you need to suffer the consequences.

          *its also not approved for human use or trials. If I was one of the bombers players and found this out I would be mighty pissed off. Who knows what repurcussions this may have on the bodies later in life.

          • Goddammit Pettiger, now look what you’ve started. ;)

          • What about the ASADA report that said it wasn’t a WADA banned drug? I think that is gonna be essondons case.

          • Not to sure about you but if my doctor gives me a prescription I don’t check what’s in it to see of its legal. I trust their professional advice that the research has already been done. Also they had a document saying it was legal so I’m not sure what else Jobe was supposed to do.

      • Boom! You’ve got it spot on mate.

      • Brilliantly written, sir! I like it. Also disgraceful were Freo fans drowning out Chris Judd’s Ross Glendenning medal speech in 2006. But you see them joining in the WCE bashing as well.

    • Fans boo players. Big deal. Players get booed for leaving their club and that’s not a crime. Players get booed for being good taggers and that’s not a crime. Watson needs to grow some and just cop it. Surely he would have expected it. What did he think the fans would do? Applaud him?

      Whether he’s guilty or not has nothing to do with it. Personally I think he’s innocent but the Essendon footy club is guilty and the club should be punished through loss of points or draft picks. That’s what’s happened in the past with salary cap breaches so you’d expect something similar here.

      • I’m pretty sure coming out and getting BOG is copping it. He never once said the booing was uncalled for. I’m more than sure he expected it. He new when he came forward what people’s response would be

  • hey mcrath. is it risky to bring in watson?

    • Not by any means at all – has a great next 2 games and is at a season-low price so now’s the time to snap him up. Are there better players on form to get in? Yes. But on pedigree and draw (and price) Watson is the best IN this week in the midfield. Just my opinion.

  • Seedsman?

  • Great article once again McRath. Dion Prestia is looking very good at the moment. Some people are even saying he’ll be named as a defender next year. :o That’s a super-lock if he is. Pretty sure the Who am I is Seedsman.

  • It is indeed Seedsman (see 4th comment) – Presti is a bloody gun! Thought he should’ve been DPP forward this year. If he was I would’ve had him from R1 and been smiling all the way to his 157 points.

  • 10 – the amount of brownlows i (a somewhat bias kangaroos supporter) think that mackenzie will win after his first full game on the weekend

    2000 – dream team points that my side (which i swear looks good on paper) just cannot seem to reach

    great write up mcrath

  • The essendon argument is pretty well void until the investigation is complete. Argueing over hear say and rumour is pointless. Yes there are some facts but not all of them. Which is leading people to a factless conclusion. Remember assumption is the mother of all f$&k ups.

    However I didn’t see the problem with jobe being booed. Plenty of players have been booed for lesser admissions than Jobes and I think it’s the entire situation that caused Jobes booing. The afl supporters as a whole are frustrated by the length of time the investigation is taking and the overall silence from the afl is increasing that frustration. Jobe was the whipping boy and he responded like a champion.

    • Agree 100% on all this, that being said, there would have to be some incredible circumstances that could allow him to keep his brownlow.

      And when I’m at the game I will BOO any opposition for any reason! Complaining about it is pointless. As long as it isn’t abusive or offensive, who cares?

    • like i’ve said before. if watson acted alone in this the he should be booed and banned and everything else. but he’s just one of a bunch of essendon players that used it under the direction of the doctor so it’s not fair to boo the one person that is actually honest and forthcoming about the whole situation.

  • Now
    Great to see the numbers back. Cheers mcrath for another good read.

  • i’m surprised more hasn’t been made of ryan griffens form. in such a terrible team he is putting up much better numbers than ablett. he probably won’t sustain it but the bulldogs are so bad that they don’t bother tagging him because they can win without it. he could very well average 110+ for rest of season

    • Yep for sure, but too many coaches are nervous about him getting the tag most weeks. Lets face it he’s only broken out in the past month before that he was a level below premo status really.

  • Just would like some feedback as to what people think I should do this week with my team, was thinking of trading out blicavs and macaffer.

    def: goddard, McKenzie, ibbo, ellis, hanley, terlich
    (goodes, thurlow)

    mid: ablett, pendles, barlow, Stanton, Johnson, gibbs, cotchin, omeara
    (Mitchell, blicavs)

    ruck: cox, zac Clarke
    (nicolls, daw)

    fwd: n riewoldt, martin, cloke, kennedy, roughead, macaffer
    (b kennedy, staker)

  • Top work McRath, great to have the numbers back…
    118 – Boyd’s 3 round average.
    Thought I’d get that in before I start hearing about how smart everyone else is for not picking him!

  • what should i do
    double upgrade to stokes and heppel by ellis and maccaffer or
    downgrade thurlow to clisby and macaffer to stokes
    Def- God, duff, shaw, gibbs, ellis, thurlow, terlich, hanley
    Mid- swan, pendles, jack,swallow, barlow, steven, tichel, hunter, ablett, hrovat
    Ruck- goldstein, jacobs, rowe, nicolls
    fwd- johnson, bartel, rocky, zorko, kennedy,caff, martin, staker

    • I’ll tell you what you should do – you should go to the My Team article and post that there