The Friday Scramble: Round 14 MBR??

FridayScrambleWell I joked in Round 10 that we had so much carnage that it was a Multi Bye Round.  Well what do you know we have the same problem again here in Round 14!  How’s the Carnage!  Wasn’t it nice on Sunday night to be able to put all our gun players back on the field!  Our projected scores were nice and high (as if we were ever going to score that high…the DT gods wouldn’t let us!).

Then it happened!  We knew some of it was coming but we put our heads in the sand and pretended it wouldn’t happen.  We had Scooter, Vlastuin, Goodes, Goodes and Birch all injured on Friday and Saturday.  We thought this was pretty bad… then Sunday comes along and spanks us with Barlow getting a smack in the mouth and Stevie J giving out a bump!  Seriously!  Can this get worse?  Well yes. We now know that Joe Daniher wasn’t picked, Luke Shuey was a late out last night and that there will still be more carnage to come with final teams tonight!

IMPORTANT: Trades STICK today.  No Reverse Trades available today!

So the big question that we have is…. what the hell do we do?

Who Do I Trade First?

Well I must say that the gold that was delivered on Tuesday night by Tbetta is what I was going to do too.  That is to trade in order of their issue and length of time out.  I doubt that many top teams have escaped all the carnage and hence will have to make two injury related trades this week.

One option of course is that you could just put all your injured guys on the bench and trust in those bench guys to get you some points.  However, in this world of 44 trades you simply can’t afford to have all that cash on the bench getting you no points!  And besides a couple of them are now long term outs that even in the old DT world we wouldn’t put up with.

So the first trades I would suggest this week involve our two most injured guys and that is Scooter and Birch.  Both these guys are now listed as out for 6-8 weeks so there is simply no point whatsoever in holding them.  In my situation this is exactly what I will be doing.

When considering Stevie J I would only be trading him if I had no injuries to worry about.  The risk that you have with an injured player being out longer than expected is one that you simply don’t have with a suspended one.  We all know that without doubt that Stevie will be back after 2 weeks.  So what this means is that you should be considering trading out the two guys I mentioned above as well as  Goodes and Goodes before you would trade out Stevie.

Barlow is the interesting one.  We all knew it was going to be a struggle for him to get up after having minor surgery.  So now that he is out, if you have other issues I would be holding Barlow for the moment.

Our one shining light from the list above is Vlastuin.  He has been named this week when we all thought he would be out.  However, I would be very careful with him.  I can still see him being a late out and perhaps they have named him to give him every opportunity to come up for the game.  Even if he does play I would be concerned with the amount of run that he might provide and hence he may not score too well.

So in summary, my thoughts are that you should trade your long term injuries first, then your short term injuries and then your suspensions.  If there is anyone with luxury trades this week you are very lucky indeed!

My Team Is Complete!  Yay!

Really?  I would challenge anyone that thinks that to not trade except for LTI’s.  I hear a lot of this.  My team may have a lot of premo players in it, however it is far from complete.  For me there are always improvements that can be made and tweaks you can make to your team.  This is particularly evident in our 44 trade environment that we have this year.  Previously we would have to keep your underperforming premo guys, but now you can tweak your premo players for their opponents (fraught with danger) or for a dip in form.  So I think that you should always be looking for that competitive edge.  Even with your leagues you could trade in a point of difference to get that crucial win to push you higher on the ladder.

#AskDunny

Scramble28June#2

Tough break getting those two guys in last week and having them go down this week!  However, they are quality players.  I like your trade there and trading out Scooter is certainly a priority.  IF you have no other issues then as I said above you should trade Barlow, but I think he should be back next week so if you have another guy that will be out for longer then look at trading them instead.  As for the guys you are looking to bring in.  Pendles and Boyd should be numbers one and two on your list.  I know a few weeks ago on the Footy Rhino podcast and in this column I said I wouldn’t pick up Boyd because of the old man injuries, well I have changed my mind a bit now and he has shown that he is well and truly over those injuries.

Scramble28June#5

As I said above sides won’t be complete but they will have a full premo outfit in them.  I certainly wouldn’t be trading out Franklin.  What you want to ultimately do if you can (and I can’t say I have seen it done) is to have the top 8 forwards in your forwardline with numbers 7 and 8 on your bench.  So what this means is why would you keep a guy like Staker Neade or Macaffer instead of keeping Buddy.  So most certainly you should be trying to upgrade those weaker players on your bench and then if that means you move one of your best 6 to the bench then that is a great thing!

Scramble28June#4

Interesting one this.  Ibbotson has been on a tear lately and is scoring really well.  Heater has been ok throughout the year and is building himself a very solid average.  I guess the question is who is going to have the better finish to the season and who is least likely to screw up and get themselves suspended for something stupid!  Well we all know the answer to part B, Ibbo has Heater covered very comfortably there.  However, as to the average.  I think that I will go with Shaw here.  I know that Freo have the easier run home, however, I just simply don’t trust Ross Lyon and his backlines!  If I were a risk taker, then Ibbotson but if I want the tried and true player then Shaw it is.

Scramble28June#3

Another Heater question.  This time we are comparing to Houli.  I know that Bachar has been looked at by a number of good coaches throughout the league this year and many thought he would have a break out season.  If you are looking for consistency I think that Houli wins this argument.  Looking at Houli he has an average of 85 and after two low scores to start the season he has been ok.  He sticks between 80 and 110 mostly which is a reasonable spread.  Heater on the other hand has an average of 89 and ranges between 61 (against Brisbane) and a high of 107 v Saints and Melbourne.

Scramble28June#1

Once again another good question.  Clearly with the 44 trades we don’t have to put up with rubbish from our premiums!  However, once again if you have other issues to deal with you should be sticking with your premiums and trading those guys that aren’t playing (kind of common sense I guess).  Of the two guys that you mention, I would certainly get rid of Burgoyne first as I think he is the least likely to bounce back.  His form early this year has certainly left him and I can’t see it returning.  As for Cotchin I think that he is likely to bounce back so I would consider holding him and then using the trade in other parts of the field.  One thing to remember about the price changes for these sorts of guys.  IF they are a player that you are planning to hold until end of the season then it doesn’t matter if they are worth $700k or $50 you aren’t going to be trading them so their value means absolutely nothing.  Their value is only important if they get an LTI and you have to trade them out.  I wouldn’t be planning my team thinking I will have to trade out a guy like Ablett or Swan so I don’t care what their values do.

Things To Remember

  • As I said above Trades Aren’t Reversible Today! – Treat today like old school DT and only trade just before lockout.
  • Just because it isn’t a bye round it doesn’t mean donuts won’t appear!
  • Fans will find any reason to boo a star from the other team… get over it BT!
  • Really be careful if you are using the captains loophole and think it through.

My team had a good week last week, I actually had 22 playing and that meant I could pull together a good score of 1,935 which lifted my ranking up to 2,831 which is far from good but it is certainly a hell of a lot better than what it was!  I know everyone has been talking about pre and post bye rankings.  I was 4,832 after round 10 so I picked up 2,001 places over the bye period.

From here on out it is full bore to the final siren.  Make each of your trades one that improves your team in some way and don’t leave anything in the tank!  Only a few more games until we get to the finals and we want to have our teams in tip top form when we get to round 20 and the first week of the finals.  It is now that instead of considering byes when you do your trades you should be considering their run home and particularly their opponents in the last 4 weeks.

I hope your teams all did well last night and as such you have set a good platform for the rest of the weekend!

Late Breaking Question….

Scramble28June#6

This is an excellent question and one that I have certainly had to consider in the past!  Carnage will do that to you!!!

85 Comments

  • Thanks Dunny! What are your thoughts on Trent McKenzie?

  • Up early for once and a great way to start the day. Cheers, Dunny.

    I’ve avoided much of the carnage with only Stevie J, Barlow, Brett Goodes, and Vlastuin. I was planning to do 2 upgrades this week and think I’ll stick with that plan. Either way I’ll have 2 more premiums on field than I do before trades and this way I can assess Barlow next week and only wait 1 week more for Stevie.

    Should I trade out Goodes or Vlastuin for Gibbs? Thinking Goodes so I’ve got backup on the pine down back. The other trade will probably be Dwyer to Stokes, leaving Macaffer on the ground and Staker as emergency.

    • I would absolutely be trading Vlastuin or Goodes to Gibbs (I am more than likely to bring Gibbs in myself this week).
      I think with only those guys to worry about your two upgrade plan looks good to me.
      I like Dwyer to Stokes too.

      • dunny im thinking of the same trade; but who should i choose vlastuin or goodes to gibbs!!

        • If you want to trade out Vlastuin at some stage and have bench cover definitely dump Vlastuin now. A bit tricky if you want to get rid of him at some stage and don’t have bench cover. I’d probably take the risk and dump him now anyway. I might end up hanging onto Vlastuin, so am getting rid of Goodes this week.

      • Thanks Dunny. I think I’ll dump Goodes. Vlastuin’s high BE is potentially an issue if I want to trade him in coming weeks, but hopefully he’ll be good enough to secure D7 (whereas I don’t think Goodes will be good enough) making his BE irrelevant. Bench cover is also always nice.

  • Nicholls or Blicavs on the field, tough call but im leaning towards nicholls coz I think the suns will give it a good crack.
    And Staker or Caff on the field ???

    • Always difficult ones… I’m going with Nicholls and Caff. Staker and Blic can stay on the pine and put more moola in the bank

    • Caff all day everyday

    • Caff on that one, has only had one bad game in the last few.
      Nicholls is up against an out of form Jacobs whilst Blicavs is up against Fremantle who have Zac Clarke. Just given the way Freo play I reckon I would go with Nicholls.

  • Burgoyne ,Goodes or Vlastuin for Gibbs, Goodes wont lose cash this week where Burgoyne could drop another $20000 and Vlastuin $14000 ??

    • Depends if you think you have all your onfield positions between the three covered – don’t want to take a donut. I’d say Burgoyne, since he’ll lose the most; Vlastuin has only given one crap score – the last game. If he plays, he should bonce back. Might lose you money the next two weeks, but then should make it back after the high BE is eradicated from his line of future scores.

    • I think Burgoyne could be your man to trade. However, I will be interested to see where he plays and what the opposition do now that Birch isn’t there.

  • Cheers for the article Dunny.

    Would you bring in N.Roo or Stokes? Thinking Nick just because he isn’t playing Freo.

  • Current Team:
    god, gibbs, hepD, terlich, Ibbo, vlas (thurlow, Goodes)
    swan, ablett, pendles, blitz, stants, titchell, swallow, jelwood (hrovat, Barlow)
    cox, berger (nicholls, naismith)
    bartel, dusty, rocky, buddy, caff, Staker (bennedy, SJ)
    536k

    obviously im in the market for a double upgrade with half a million dosh :)
    but which way shall i go?

    – since vlas is playing, goodes/blitz > rooey/boyd and have enough for another double upgrade next week with 200k odd
    – vlas/goodes > rooey/shaw or someone like a malceski, and still have enough for a double next week
    – thurlow/goodes > rooey/premo defender as above but not enough for a double next week, do i really care about thurlow in D8 not playing…

    what do you think guys??? i think for me keeping SJ and barlow is worth it since i have SOO much cash right?

    thoughts and any other ideas??…need other please input lolz

    thx hypes!!

  • A good start to the morning – Cheers Dunny.

    I have Vlastuin in the Mids and considering bringing in Gibbs (low BE) this week as well. It would mean he will have to play in the Mids this week – is this a good move? I’ll have to put Titch on the bench. I can then move Gibbs to DEF which would nearly complete my defence the following week. Or would it better to trade Vlastuin to a premo like Pendles or Boyd? My other trade will be a downgrade which will give me some cash.

    Def – Goddard, Heppell, Hibberd, Hanley, Ellis, Terlich (Staker, Thurlow)
    Mid – Swan, Barlow, Watson, Jack, Thompson, JPK, Cotchin, Priddis (Vlastuin, TMitchell)

  • Brett Goodes – HOLD OR FOLD!!!!

  • Cheers Dunny, more to think about then ever!

    Currently looking to trade out Vlastuin and Mayes and have three options.

    Double upgrade – i have enough cash to afford anyone.
    Double downgrade – bring in Clisby and Hunter for even more cash for upgrades.
    Upgrade and Downgrade.

    Probably leaning towards the double upgrade option at this stage. I already have Goddard, Heppell, Gibbs in the backs and Swan, Ablett, Pendles, Watson, Lids, Swallow.

    Best options in each position. I like the look of Ibbotson and Boyd or am i just getting too sucked in to recent form and should look elsewhere?

    • U don’t need to get either of clisby or hunter till next week so get them then if u want them unless your outs will lose packets $20k say. Hrovat is a lesson for all who downgrade first week. Please disregard the opposite lesson that Nicholls taught…

  • Roughhead or Stokes?

    Roughhead has Brisbane, Geelong, Port, Bulldogs in next 4.

    Stokes has Freo, Hawks, Melbourne, Adelaide.

    I’m thinking I’ll grab Roughy this week and Stokes next.

    Thoughts?

    • Not sure Roughead is a top 6’er, while Stokes probably is. Roughead also has a pretty poor list of games for the rd 20-24. Your view may vary, but I’d get Stokes this week.

  • Why can I reverse my trades, even though I made them this morning?

  • not sure what to do ?

    Option 1 …Vlaustin > Gibbs

    Option 2 …Vlaustin > Stokes/Riewoldt/Cloke moving Staker to Defence

    Option 3 …Mayes > Stokes/Riewoldt/Cloke

  • trade vlastun or goodes to gibbs?

  • Who to bench out of Cotchin, Hodge, Titchell, JPK?

    • Have to be Tichell..Hes a rookie and they can be inconsistant

      • It sucks to bench a so called ‘premo’ but i’d say that Hodge and Cotchin are the worst two.

        • When it doubt, avg out their last 5 games + their overall avg and see who comes out on top. Have to leave reputations aside.

      • Keep t.mitchell and bench cotchin (Flop of the year), you have to go on current form and form says either cotchin or JPK go to the bench, yes rookies can be inconsistent but in saying that premo’s can also be inconsistent. So based on form it’ll be stupid to bench mitchell scores of 98 starting as sub, 144 and then 81 in a losing side last week.

        • cotchin, averaging 70 over last 4 games.
          despicable

          • I know exactly how u feel hotties. Was going to trade him this week but injuries men I have to field him for another week I don’t like my TV’s chances of surviving after Sunday night.

  • Bartel or stokes this week? Bartel has higher b/e

    • Bartel for sure ,hes in top form

    • b/e is irrelevant with these 2 as they are both keepers.
      When will you people learn.

      • Isn’t irrelevant if one comes in this week and the other the next as u do it the cheaper way usually. Thanks for pointing out your reasoning though I think I learnt a lot.

  • Dunny, or anyone… what are we thinking about Vlastuin?

    He is on the ground for me but I am considering playing Laird ahead of him.

    Good idea?

    Also – I’m going to gamble nicholls to get more than nic-nait’s 62, good idea?

    Background is that I desperately need to win this game, I am predicted to lose by less than 20 points.

  • Im doing the same with Nichols over NNs 62. Id also play Vlas over Laird, only had one bad game and had an injury excuse.

    Need a def under $440k….narrowed it down to Johnson, Murphy, Shaw and McKenzie…thoughts?

  • Shaw/ McKenzie. I’d have Mckenzie in front mainly due to his consistency, shaw can get u 100’s but he can get u 60’s as well.

  • i was planning on taking watsons 122 as captain over swan and ablett. but i really want to have boyd captain this week. any thoughts?

    • In exactly the same situation, have the VC on watson, have gaz and swan, thinking of bringing in boyd and making him captain. Has some element of risk but could be great reward with Boyd set to smash Melbourne?

      • lineball

        I’d only consider Boyd in that scenario, he could get 160 while GAJ and Swan haven’t really looked like going over 140, which is not really worth the risk.

  • 1. Barlow > Boyd
    2. B Goodes > Martin via Staker
    3. B Goodes > Ibbo (or another premo def).

    Leaning towards 2 as it both gives me cover in def and can swing Martin into mids
    via Bennedy to cover Barlow. I do really really want Boyd tho.

  • I am trying not to be personal as I know his mum and she is lovely but I gotta say the only thing tried and true about Shaw is that he does mess up your scores somehow or other. I agree though that the same can be said for Lyon.

  • Need some help, I have not made any trades this week, however i am not able to trade today? No idea why, the trade buttons are not available. Ideas??? Anyone else have this problem?

    • You must have traded, because the reverse changes button is gone due to the partial lockout.

      • Definitely didn’t trade this week, mucked around at the start of the week but reverse traded everything back on Wednesday. Was going to trade out Birchall and Wines today, they are still in my team and i have no T (trade) button. Nothing in my trade history for this round also. Email to DT people i think.

        • You little beauty. Emailed the support team and they fixed it. Trades here we come.

    • you must have a team comprised of only eagles and bombers players

  • Who to put on field for Steve j.

    Staker or b.kennedy?

    Also will laird score more then crouch?

    • I’m going Staker, back in usual position after covering for Merritt. Should get 65+, Kennedy, a bit more of a risk for me.

  • Who to get in for Birchall? can only get a player who is under 427 000 unless i trade in a rookie and get in someone like ibbotsson. my options are Hartlett who i had earlier in the year and let go, Heath Shaw, Paul Duffield, Burgoyne or scotland?

  • Macaffer for Cloke

    or

    Goodes for McKenzie?

  • Cheers Dunny and good call!

    “Fans will find any reason to boo a star from the other team… get over it BT!” – imagine if the Bombers had played the Pies this round instead?!?!? :0