Calvin’s Captains – Rd. 13

pirate bird

Here we go… by far the biggest week in my Captain picking season and I can tell you, after hours and hours of research I ‘m pretty confident with what I have for you today… It’s my time to shine!

Yo….Look, if you had one shot, or one opportunity.
To seize everything you ever wanted, in one moment.
Would you capture it or just let it slip?
Yo

My palms are sweaty, knees weak, arms are heavy.
There’s stats on my paper already, not Rischitelli’s
I’m nervous, but on the surface I look calm and ready to drop bombs,
But I’ll never be forgettin’, what I wrote down,
The whole crowd goes so loud. I open his mouth and my Top 10 comes out…. Check it

So I have decided to go with a Top 10 because this week deserves something special. Not all teams have these people. Not many have the top 5, so by extending it to my top 10 for the first time in my career allows many to see the order in which I would pick them if I had too.

Over the week I have received many tweets (@CalvinDT) about Nick Riewoldt who plays Melbourne this week. He had a subbed out 30 and 80 on them in 2012 and hasn’t even scored over 100+ in his last 4 games. In recent weeks, Buddy (60) and Jack Riewoldt (74) have failed to dominate the Dee backline and amazingly the Voldt doesn’t make the top 10. Sam Mitchell loves playing the Eagles and even had 109 on them earlier this year. His lowest score against them in his last 7 games is just 98 and he should be solid again. I love Ryan O’Keefe but he only had 60 on Port last year. Before that he did have 112, 110 and 100 and is coming off 145 he had in his last game this year which happened to be at AAMI where he is heading this week. Garrick Ibbotson was bought to my attention by Roy in the podcast on Monday as he loves playing at Patersons where he has averaged 123 there this year compared to the 77 he averages elsewhere. He had 121 last week and although you’d never pick him as a captain, he should be great again. Sadly and maybe regrettably, Ryan Griffen just misses out on a spot this week. He has been in cracking form averaging 124 in his last 3 this year. He had 103 (30d) in Rd. 3 against the Tigers and should be good again at Etihad on Saturday night. Top 10… here we go.

THE TOP 10

#10 – Matthew Boyd
Vs Richmond @Etihad Stadium

Boydy is BACK! He has had 112 and 144 in his last 2 games this year and has scored well on Richmond in his last 3 with scores of 102, 115 and 105. Should be good again.

#9 – Tom Mitchell
Vs Port Adelaide @ AAMI Stadium

Yeah yeah yeah… he gets a mention. Although he has averaged 121 so far this year from his 2 games we still need to remember he is a ROOKIE. Placing a big C on the kid, may weigh him down and increase the pressure we have on him. He sits firmly at #9 and should be good though as he heads back to AAMI where he had that impressive 144 before his bye last week. The kid is a jet, but rookies as captains come with a risk.

#8 – Steve Johnson
Vs Brisbane @ the GABBA

Before I started my research, I pencilled Stevie J in for a top 3 finish in this list, if not #1. But it’s not to be. He had 81 on Brisbane last year which happens to be his highest score against them in his last 3 games. He did have 101 last week before being KO’ed and has been in ripping form. Certainly an option but his history Vs the Lions is a big concern for me here despite the fact that Brisbane have given up 12×100+ scores in their last 2 games.

#7 – Andrew Swallow
Vs Fremantle @ Patersons Stadium

Crowley tags Brent Harvey and Swallow usual runs free. He had 140 (30d) last year on Freo and actually averages 126 in his last 3 against them. He had 82 last time he played in the West and should be a good option for this week.

#6 – Scott Selwood
Vs Hawthorn @ Etihad Stadium

Although Selwood only had 87 when he played the Hawks in Rd. 2 of this year, he has scored 124 and 135 in his last 2 runs at Etihad. He’s averaging 109 for the year and should be pretty solid this week.

#5 – Kane Cornes
Vs Sydney @ AAMI Stadium

Out of the guys playing this week, Cornes is the 3rd highest averaging player for the year (113). In 2012, Kane Cornes scored 100 on the Swans and has actually scored 4×100+ scores on them in his last 4 games. With scores of 120 and 114 in his last 2 games this year, he is certainly one to watch this week.

#4 – Kieren Jack
Vs Port Adelaide @ AAMI Stadium

Over his last 8 games, Jack’s lowest score is just 99. WOW. He had 130 last week and is ultra consistently good at the moment. He hasn’t cracked the 100 mark against the Power in his last 5 games but his form alone is enough for him to sit at #4 this week.

#3 – Brett Deledio
Vs Bulldogs @ Etihad Stadium

When Deledio met the Bulldogs in Rd. 3 of this year he had 27d and 3 goals to get a season high 135pts. He had 121 on the Bulldogs in 2012 and 129 last week. He should pump them again on Saturday night. Also watch Dusty Martin who ripped them in Rd. 3 as well with 144pts. Not on my radar but could be big as well.

#2 – Leigh Montagna
Vs Melbourne @ the MCG

Montagna has averaged 114 in his last 4 games this year and meets the struggling Demons on Saturday afternoon. He had 106 and 87 on them in 2012 but has posted 124, 105, 67, 134, 106 and 100 on them before that. He’s only played once at the MCG this year (111pts) and surely will carve them to bits this week after Collingwood cashed in with 7×100+ scores on them before their bye.

#1 – Michael Barlow
Vs Kangaroos @ Patersons Stadium

Although he has only played the Roos twice in his career (85 and 88), Barlow sits at my #1 spot this week and here are my reasons why. His form is bloody good with 5 straight 100+ scores in his last 5 games averaging 127 in his last 3. Add to that the fact that the game is at Patersons where he has scored 115, 149, 100 and 122 there in his last 4 runs (avg. 117 there in 2013). Last time the Roos played, they met the Gold Coast Suns. Gaz (119) was one of 7 guys who cracked the ton on them and with all this considered… surely Barlow can push something out around the 120+ mark this week!

CC13TOP10article

Thanks for hanging out. I hope you have enjoyed my Top 10. It’s been a tough week for the Irish Pirate and I hope that my hard work will pay off this week. I’m very confident it will.

Who will you have as your captain for this dreaded Round 13?

  • Michael Barlow (42%, 1,479 Votes)
  • Leigh Montagna (3%, 113 Votes)
  • Brett Deledio (6%, 208 Votes)
  • Kieren Jack (13%, 445 Votes)
  • Kane Cornes (2%, 78 Votes)
  • Scott Selwood (4%, 138 Votes)
  • Andrew Swallow (2%, 55 Votes)
  • Steve Johnson (12%, 428 Votes)
  • Tom Mitchell (6%, 217 Votes)
  • Matthew Boyd (3%, 111 Votes)
  • Someone Else (8%, 274 Votes)

Total Voters: 3,542

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168 Comments

  • Jack for me, he loves Footy Park, and will carve up the Port midfield. Not to mention his in and under style is well suited to the rain (just look back a few weeks to when he played Adelaide who have better midfield stoppers than Port…) 140+ for me. :) Barlow number two should get 110-125…

  • what about st nick for captain, especially against Melbourne, not sure how he is off the top ten list

  • Great article Calvin, i have been waiting for this article for the last few weeks and you have delivered. Still tossing up between Jack and Barlow

  • Appreciate the article Calvin, always look forward to your tip! I thought Dustin Martin was a bit stiff not to be in there though, he had 144 against the bulldogs last time they played in round 3?

    • Woops, I didn’t see the mention of him under Lids at #3. All good! Cheers

    • I think he may have made Calvin’s ‘never again’ list after only just scraping in for a ton when he was put at number 3 back when Richmond played Melbourne.

  • How’s Montagna gonna go with all the Milne dramas? I wouldn’t go there.

    • Clearly something is wrong with the justice system if it takes about 9 years to lay rape charges on someone. No doubt that Milne has earned a fair bit of cash over those 9 years.

  • Sam Mitchell should be in the top 3 easily. He averages 118 against the Eagles since 2008 – AVERAGES! Top score 0f 147 and a low of 98 in that time. Tom Mitchell’s played two games ffs – TWO games! No Swanny or Ablett has driven you to a very unstable place Calvin.

    • Sam Mitchell’s form lately is hardly captain worthy. His highest score since round 5 is 104. He only got 109 on the Eagles earlier this year, and that game was at the playground, this one is at Etihad, so he will probably go lower than that. Most of the top 10 will get 110+ and Tom Mitchell may go 140+ so I think your comment is a little bit off the mark.

      • Tom Mitchell may go 140+ is off the mark

        • Why? 98 in 2.5 qtrs (157 pace for a full game) and 144 at AFL level and 216 and 226 in the NEAFL in the 2 weeks prior suggest he could well go 140+. Wide margin of uncertainty is the problem.

  • To say t.mitchell is going to score 110+ is a bit premature. May I also this this Weekends lotto numbers… He is a great ROOKIE for sure but far from proven captain material. He could well score 140 or 40. So to say he is a better captains choice than s.mitchell would be to ignore sams long detailed past as a proven scorer and putting blind faith in a young bloke replicating a score he has had once. Your entering the unknown. As a point I won’t be taking either Mitchell as my captain.

    • What do you know:

      That this year S Mitchell has given us a few low hundreds and a few sub-80 scores.

      That T Mitchell can score 144, and would have scored 140 in his first game if extrapolated to 4 quarters.

      Yes, T Mitchell can score you a 40, but guess what – so can S Mitchell

    • ? This entire article is a formative guess. It’s only a guide that Calvin has formed from ‘HIS’ research, certainly don’t see anything in the article about ” Lock him or i’m comin round your house”. Try some constructive criticism instead of making jerk-off Lotto comparisons. Be interested in seeing your top 10 mhawk.

      • Piss off Jack. Pretty sure he was just giving his opinion. Go put Tom ahead of Sam and see what happens.

        • Nice work champ, missed the point totally didn’t we, the conversation wasn’t about who’s better. it’s the predicted scores calvin gave… Again, nice work felchit8r..

    • What do ya know, Madhawk…enjoy S Mitchell’s sub-80 captains score this round — a nice juicy 68.

      • “As a point I won’t be taking either Mitchell as my captain.” Quote Madhawk, 2013, June 20. Should have read the post Stange.

        • “So to say he is a better captains choice than s.mitchell would be to ignore sams long detailed past as a proven scorer and putting blind faith in a young bloke replicating a score he has had once.” — This implies he thought S Mitch would be better than T Mitch, based on unprovided support. I provided the support already, that S Mitchell has at best given low hundreds this season, and is prone to sub-80 scores too often – a captain’s score kller.

          As captianblood said, the article is a formulative estimate based on the recent data at hand Calvin has. Madhawk’s main argument was from a point of incredulity that a rookie could be made a captain, regardless of the stats. The comment about not choosing either mitchell was’t the main point of his post.
          In the end Calvin’s choice to include T mitch in his top 10 was justified by the information he had as hand. Madhawks MAIN point – that S Mitch was better as a choice then T mitch, couldn’t be supported by anything at the tme he commented, and at this point after teams have played, has been proven wrong for round 13.

  • Thanks Calvin – but anyone who puts a third game player as captain is NUTS. I dont care how good they were in their first two games, captains earn that position with months if not years of consistency….
    For me this week the absolute LOCK is Stevie J – Im not sure the details in this article are relevant as Stevie has been a forward in more recent clashed with the lions where as this year he will line up in the midfield, where Brisbane have been getting smashed…i predict 30+ touches and 120 odd…..

  • Does the loophole work with a bye player on field with the C on him?
    Eg. Ablett on field C , Lids VC, Barlow emg?

    • unless you are talking about supercoach it only works when there is a partial lockout so wait a week. if you are talking about supercoach you are in the wrong place.

  • cheers Pirate – Going with Jack..seems a safe bet..in form, very consistent and against relatively week oppo.

  • Going to be carnage this week….I’ve only got 18 available players and out of that 2 are Hrovat and Bartel. Doubting if Hrovat will be named and Bartel is in doubt this weekend as well……welcome Donuts!!

    Bringing in Boyd (for Crouch) and T. Mitchell (for Murphy) this week – sticking C on Barlow and VC on Boyd

    • Do you have Jack?
      Get him in instead of Boyd! Jack has a good run ahead of him and playing Melbourne,Port and Gws in the next 4 weeks and has been in good form!

      • Boyd also has a good run fyi, richmond/melb/gws and also plays melb in GF.

  • Interesting dilemma for captains this week, trying to predict which player your opponent has as captain.

    One of my strategies I’d if I think I have a slightly better team on paper then my opponent attempt to work out who he has as more probable captain choice, and copy. almost impossible to work out this week.

    • Just doing the same thing Shags.. Will be make or break for a lot of league games.

  • Thinking of trading in Jack and making him captain. Otherwise Steve J (don’t have any of the top 7)

  • After thinking about it a bit more I am inclined to take a punt on Stevie J.
    I understand Calvins reasoning and yeah he hasn’t scored that well on them in the past but he is averaging 20 points a game more then last year. He easily has the highest avg (115) of all the available choices. He has a high ceiling with scores of 170+ in the past, including scores of 141, 144 and 136 already this year. He has been very consistent with only 2 scores under 100 (92 and 94)
    He would of got a 130 last week if he hadn’t been knocked out and Brisbane are giving up the high scores this year too.

    All points to a big score for Stevie despite the history.

    Barlow for safety and consistency but I think I will take a punt on Stevie for his consistency + ceiling

    • Ayy Hook why not take a punt on Tom Mitchell. He’s played 2 games and has a massive ceiling. He may go 140+ this week

      • Or he may get 40. We might know his ceiling (it’s been 2 games..keep in mind) but we don’t know how long he can go.

      • U being serious? cant tell.
        Sorry mate haven’t captained a rookie yet, not gunna happen.
        takes years of pumping out tonnes before you get considered for captaincy for the Hooligans

      • We may know his ceiling but we don’t know his floor. 2 games is hard to go by. We do know he is a gun. We don’t have a few seasons worth of info to make a judgement. Can he handle a tag? At what point will opponent teams consider him a threat and tag him. Will he run out of steam?
        Is he capable of the odd bad week? Will Sydney change his role? Which grounds does he play well at? Does he have any bogey teams? By all means go YOLO. I plan to go with something with a more understood record.

        • He plays well at footy park.

          I think the main thing is we want to see him pump out a bunch of great games and continually not get the tag because he’s not as damaging as JPK et al, or get a tag and break it before selecting him as captain. Until one of those two things has happened, he could be tagged any week and get a 50. Who wants to take that risk this week?

  • +1 Hooks, if there is any week to take a punt on a captain it’s this week. Im going with ellis as my captain sounds silly but i reckon he’ll get 120-130 against the dogs this week.

  • Jack for C, J Selwood for VC

  • Anyone reckon possible bad weather forecast in perth might slow down Barlow as captain or enhance the amount of easy touches ?

    • There is an analysis I want to see. How does weather affect players scores. I’m sure some players would be worse, some better. many probably little to no affect. I have no idea if Barlow is one if those players. I’d argue that key,marking forwards would be more affected and under and out mids less so. That may not be the case.

      • If you’re a ruck, wet weather is great for DTing. More stoppages, and hitout opportunities.

        But the only time I’d consider a ruck for captain is Cox or Roughead, (done it once this season, and repaid by Cox’s 130) but neither are playing that game, so this moot.

    • like i posted earlier, he had 118 in adelaide 2 games ago. it pissed down almost the whole time from memory

  • Tom Mitchell is the only player in the 10 I have! #fail

    • That must mean your mids are filled with R13 byes? If you have players like ROK or Dusty.. then they are also options to consider.

  • I feel like 156 people are going to be sorely disappointed by Tom Mitchell, but rough giving him the C in his third match.

  • “Confusion now hath made his masterpiece”
    Tough call which premium to upgrade to this week.
    Barlow, Lids or S. Selwood?
    Barlow’s price is too high at the moment for me in relation to the overall prices in the comp and i think the latter two should score just as well over the next few weeks. Also, Lids and Selwood will leave me with around $248,000 and $210,000 respectively compared to the $210,000 and $162,000 i would bank if Barlow came in.
    So, who out of Lids or Selwood, or am i crazy not to get Barlow in this week?
    1st world problems i know…

  • went J Selwood as captain, looking good as i think it will piss down tomorrow :)