Round 12 Premium Trade-Ins

This has been a week of ups and downs for me. I did really well in one of my exams, then I didn’t do so well in one of my other ones, but, on the plus side last week I was honoured to be given the title of an author on @DTTalk. Very much appreciated, thanks Warnie. Writing and sports are my passions, so hopefully I can keep bringing you guys quality articles.

In this week’s round of AFL Dreamteam, I also experienced ups and downs. I benefited from trading in Tom Mitchell (the kid loves the ball more than my school’s food tech teacher loves margarine, and that is saying something) and having Kreuzer, Heppell and Priddis (along with the standard combo of Ablett and Swan, a pair some have dubbed as ‘The Pig and Jesus’). However, I suffered a severely bruised skull from banging my head against the wall when Daw and JJK withdrew at the last minute, giving me no option to take Robinson, and JPK’s score. Then, to top it all off, I (very foolishly) decided to make Stanton the captain this week, because I thought in the worst case scenario, he’d at least knock up a ton. Yep, as I was reminded in one of my leagues, he did indeed make the century. Thanks mate.120312-brent-stanton

Okay, now my little summary/rant is over, I will get down to the purpose of this article. I quite like the stats side of things, as evident in my last two articles on consistency. However, when trading in, I did mention that you have to consider consistency and ceiling. So this week, I got a minimum 5 players from each position that had the bye, and considered just that.

As usual, my categories are described below.

  • Affected mean: The average of the player’s scores, not including games where they have been subbed or injured. Players are ranked according to this column.
  • 3 round mean: The average score of their last three rounds played.
  • Standard deviation: How spread out the values are. Lower is better.
  • Dollars per point of average: A measure of how ‘good a bargain’ the player is. It is basically their price divided by their average. Lower values are better.
  • Times over 100 per times played: These last 4 measures are to show ceiling. This column is how many times they have cracked the century.
  • Times over 110 per times played: This is how many times they have racked up a score over 110. For example if Player A has got 100 2/10 times he played and gets over 110 1/10 times he played, that means that Player A has got one score between 100 and 109 and one score above 110.
  • Average score when over 110: This is to highlight how ‘big’ a player goes when he scores over 110. A higher value in this category is of course, better.
  • High score: This is the player’s highest score they have got all season.

 

Just before we start, I realise that the pictures might be a bit small, so I have attached the excel file with all my data in it for you to download and read if you are having trouble reading this. Once again, I have ranked the players on their affected mean.

Defenders

Backmen

As expected, Pierce Hanley is the number one defender to trade in at the moment. He has the highest average, and a relatively low $ per point ratio (PPR). Surprisingly however, next on the list is Paul Duffield! I support the Dockers, so I knew he was good, but I didn’t think that he got the ball enough to support that average. He also cracked the ton 3 out of 10 times, and with the

bachar_slide1Dockers favourable run home, could he be a legitimate upgrade option?

One that definitely would have slipped under a lot of people’s radars is Bachar Houli. He has a three round average of 100.7 and an ownership of only 2.36%. If you want a potential POD, then get on!

Rounding out the list are the Hawks pair of Burgoyne and Birchall and then Hartlett. At this stage, I would probably be going with Burgoyne over either of the other two, they are just two inconsistent, however, if you are a gambling man, pick them up!

Midfielders

Midfielders

There is a reason people have been talking up Michael Barlow all week, and this table proves it. He is a massive beast, with an average of 108 and a three round average of 130, which shows he is in killer form. He cracked the ton six out of the ten times he played, going past 110 in all but one of them. His average over 110 of 127.6 proves that when he goes big, he really does go big. Add in a favourable draw, and he is almost irresistible. Jump on!

Griffen is second on the list, which surprises me a little, but I wouldn’t be considering him at this stage, as he is quite inconsistent, but he does have a veerrrryyyy high ceiling.

Kane Cornes has had a resurgence this year, and it shows in his numbers. However, his scores have started to decline slightly as of late after his fast start, so I would be going to Barlow first over him.

Mitchell and Boyd are proven jets, you know exactly what you are going to get out them, week after week. Boak is kind of a ‘fix-up’ trade, someone you would’ve had from the start of the year to save a bit of coin. I wouldn’t recommend trading him in now. That also applies to Liberatore and Ebert; these two are solid but unspectacular.

The Richmond pair of Cotchin and Deledio are interesting though. They have the potential to go big, and although they have an average in the mid-nineties, I wouldn’t trade them in until they crack the hundred a couple of times. Mundy is a player to be considered with Fremantle’s great home run, however, he will generally cop the tag as he is more damaging then Barlow, so beware.

Ruckmen

Ruckmen

Zac Clarke is at the top of the rucking charts with his mean of 93.67, however, he has only played 3 games and cracked the ton once, so I would be hesitant to bring him in. But Fremantle do have the easy run home, so he could go big with Sandilands out. Beware though, that when Sandilands comes back, either him or Hannath will be dropped, and regardless, his rucking time will diminish.

294920_234147853361842_100002998888377_410851_1318337429_n

 

I would pass on either Maric (sorry, I couldn’t resist with the picture) or Hale because of their lower means, however, Hale has a three round average of 94.3, if he keeps this up, then he could be a legitimate ruck option.

I think the best options to trade in on this list would be Minson or Roughead. Both have been in fantastic form, with similar high scores, hundreds made and means. At this stage though, I think Minson just nudges out Roughead because of his greater consistency. I brought big Wilbur in, and so far I don’t regret it.

Forwards

Forwards

Having not had Martin from the start of the season, I will be trading him in this week. I am sick and tired of watching him and hoping he gets tagged or stinks it up every game because everyone apart from seems to have him. He almost has an average of over 100, and his mean over 110 of 144 proves that when he cracks that 110 mark, he goes huge! He is slightly inconsistent, but I think this is one of the cases where that is tolerable.

I was considering Lewis as well, because he seems to be in form, but on closer inspection, his last three games were the golden trio of points, GC, GWS and MELB. This would probably be why he has the inflated 3 round average of 111. Saying that though, he does have a good standard deviation and will average around 90 odd for the whole year, so he isn’t a bad pick.

Rockliff is only slightly behind Martin for average and SD, but he more hundreds scored. Interestingly, every single time he gets 100, he gets over 110, giving a score of 117.5. However, his scores have been suffering with him playing in the forward line as of late, so Vossy, if you are reading this, chuck him in the midfield again, please please please!

872510-lance-franklin

If you want a bargain, then Franklin is the man for you. He is priced so nicely, it is almost impossible to not be tempted. I have (rather unfortunately) had him from the start of the season, but you only feel it is a matter of time until he explodes in a biigggggg way and kicks a bag.

 

At this stage, I would be steering clear of Zorko. He is not the guy of last year. Stay away.

Conclusion

Alright, that’s finished. Top five bye players for Ruck, Forward and Defender and top 11 for midfielders. Remember, these players have all just had the bye, so you don’t need to fret about whether they’ll fit into your bye structure. They’ll fit alright. I will now show you a common question that will probably come up if you have a casual peruse of the ‘My Team’ threads. It’ll run something like this:

“Help! I only have 18 players on the park this week, I need to trade Evans or O’Meara to a premium mid, and I want to trade either JJK or Robbo to a premium forward. Opinions please!!!!!! :)”

Okay, to start with, I would be trading Evans out this week. O’Meara will actually be playing, so trade him out next week if you really want to. I want to keep him as M9 or M10 for the rest of the season, he is a gun, but I’m not sure I’m going to be able to. So definitely Evans, but to whom? I would be going either Barlow or Cornes, but I would prefer Barlow. As I said, he has the easier run home, and I trust him more than Cornes.

For your second trade, I would trade JJK, for similar reasons as the first trade. Robbo should play this week (If he doesn’t then you might have to completely rework this second trade, but I am basing this on the fact that he will). Then I would be looking at either Martin or Rockliff, and if you have both of them, I would go for the next player on the list, who is Lewis. If you are short on cash or really feel like you need an adrenaline rush, then go Franklin.

Last week, as I said before, my team, Lightningboltzzz (yes, hilarious, I’ve heard it all before) got mightily pissed off with Stanton (I’ll probably do something stupid and back him in again this week though!) and copped two late withdrawals along with Robbo and JPK to net me a very shaky 1682 points (look, who am I kidding, that hurts more than getting hit in the balls with a tennis racket wielding kid who gets impatient when I try to teach another kid how to improve his forehand).

Anyway, cheers for reading the article, but just before you go, check out my top two premium trade ins for each position this week in the beautifully edited picture down below.

As usual, any questions or comments, hit me up on twitter @ZeusODeaDT and have a great day!

Zeus's Top 8

ROUND 11

56 Comments

  • franklin as a POD? he is the 8th most common player in the comp. 46.96% of teams have him (i reckon more will after this week)

  • Great work Zeus and a very timely article.
    I have gone for the Duffman based on the Dockers sweet draw from here on in!

  • What about Gibbs?

  • You said Hale was a good ruck option? With a three round average of 94.3…

    The past 3 teams hawks have versed have been GWS, GCS, Melb.

    I’d look elsewhere.

    • No..he said IF he keeps those scores up then he is.

      • Yeah that is correct Dirk. IF (and that is a big if based on his former scores) he does well in the coming rounds, then consider.

  • Cheers for the article :)

    Quick question, Hanely is going to drop big time (50k or so) in next 2 weeks! Would you still say he is best defender upgrade target even with this?

    • sometimes you need to sacrifice money for a strong team and score.

      • +1 Should be looking now to bring in the strongest possible team you can field for after the byes and the run home. Should hopefully be in a decent position where you can now bring in mostly premiums

    • im getting hanley in 2, for terlich. hanley will be around 380 then, and hes one of the best running defenders

    • As the other guys who commented before me said, getting in quality players should be a focus, however, if you go for one of the substitute players, i.e. Burgoyne or Houli or Duffield, it should not be a big problem to get him in later. Flexibility is a big part of Dreamteam, so as long as you plan to get him in later, it is ok.

  • Finally a dockers supporter author :D great article zeus, your analysis of the statistics is very handy. I will be getting Duffield in.

  • Jordan Lewis or Will Minson, cant decide which one. Any thoughts?

    • Lewis BE is 66, Minson’s is 76 so Lewis will get you a bit more coin. But there are better options than Lewis in the Mids and the forawrds(he isn’t probably going to be a top 8 guy) whole Minson is one of the best rucks this year. Go Minson.

    • It really depends on your bye structure, but I would be going Minson. Lewis has a bit of an inflated average because of the last 3 rounds (GC, GWS and MELB) so his real average would be around mid to high eighties.

      Minson on the other hand is a hitouts beast and is in the form of his life. I would be going Minson.

  • Thanks for the article mate, one quick one: it’s Pearce Hanley not Pierce :)
    Personally I can’t resist Barlow this week. Getting my first Freo player this year, hope it doesn’t jinx the team.

    • +1

    • Ahaha Pearce, my bad, thanks Stuart.

      I’m getting Barlow in as well, possibly even captaining him against Brisbane. Should get a 120 odd at least.

  • thoughts on bringing Nathan Fyfe in???

  • great article mate…

    have trading in barlow and minson this week for monloney and blicav.

  • Great work Zeus.
    I agree Barlow is a DT machine, however an interesting stat is that he is yet to crack the ton against his next three opponents ( 99 v Lions tho)… might just wait until closer to his good run home and aim for that fallen premo like Mitchell this round.

    • Yeah that is true Savabeer, it is an interesting point that you make about him vs the Lions, as I was considering him as captain. He should do better though at Patersons Playground.

  • Buddy>Roughead. I feel so much better now.

  • Im loving Bachar Houli, had him from the start and never let me down. Good to see him get a mention..

    • He’s been to good to ignore recently! A lot of people are scared about jumping to relatively ‘unproven’ premiums, but at the end of the day, it’s what makes this game fun!

  • should i put in hanley for roberton and mcveigh for wingard or libetore?

    • neither! keep hanley first of all, or downgrade him to an ellis maybe who should be playing with a low b/e. mcveigh is a gun and if you downgrade hanley (which i wouldnt, im looking to get hanley in for terlich in a couple weeks) then upgrade mcveigh for a griffin, barlow, cotch, delidio?

      • i meant roberton in for hanley and mcveigh in for wingard or someone that 400k

  • delido or cotchin

    • cotch is cheaper but a little down on form. personally id go cotchin coz hes one of my fav players and underpriced, just needs a spark to get going

  • Everything is pointing towards barlow but has anyone thought about redden as a POD? Redden seems to have back half of the year with big averages

    • In 2012, in the first 10 games, he hit 120+ 4 times, but only three times in the next 13 games. However, the main difference was had fewer crappy scores in the back 13 games. So rather than his ceiling, his consistency is better in the 2nd half.

      It’s a similar story for 2011, where he averaged 109.
      In 2011, in the first 10 games, he hit 110+ 5 times (including two 130s), but 4 of his 5 sub-100 scores were woeful, below 85. In the back part of 2011, he scored above 90 in all the games except round 24 (which isn’t relevant this year) – including separate 5 in a row and 6 in a row runs of 110+

      The only issue is that in these awesome (2011) and good (2012) years, he has had a low ceiling, touching 130 only 3 times in his 29 tons

      • Worth a gamble in summary…Redden is a tackling gun, and when he’s on fire he’s a tackling beast.

    • Looking at his scores, in round 10 last year, nearly half his score (127) was from tackles (60)! Crazyness

      • I too really like the look of Redden. Under 2% ownership, shows great consistency on the run home and is averaging 108 in his last 4. Averaged 102.6 DT and 24 touches last year, Going at 20.5 touches at the moment.. you’d thing he’d hit about the same stats by the end of the year, so a 105-106 average the rest of they year is possible…

  • Please dont stone me to death for asking….

    Westhoff, he hurt me early on as well, but for $378K, and a 110DT under his belt seemingly building to his bye, whats the thoughts on him for the 2nd half of the season? Only alternative at that price seems to be Duddy?

    • He should kill GWS, but he port has a tough run after that. From games this year, it’s easy to be convinced that when Port play a better team, their popular DT players struggle.

      I would suggest that if you make money from Westoff from this move, you should be prepared to jump off and trade him out when he has a poor score…if that happens to be the case, at this point in the season most coaches would look at avoiding using two trades for a player.

      • Good call Stange, i’m not in a position to trade him in again at this stage, lets say not prepared to trade him in.. and get burned again. If he fires, i will probably punch myself..

  • Nice Article should i be worried that Hrovat and Dwyer are both named on extended benches and both might not play!!

  • still no Ibbotson love?

    • Ahh true, I forgot him. Quite inconsistent however, I’m not sure you would fully want to depend on his scores.

  • has anybody considered simon black?

    low price and is fully fit and can score big.

  • Hows this for a long shot. When Port last played GWS earlier in the season Westhoff scored 150pts. Could he possibly do it again this week?