Trigger Happy: Round 7

Well there  has been enough said about last week so I won’t go there! It did definitely sort the Johnsons from the Westhoffs! Which one were you?

As it stands on Thursday night there hasn’t been too much carnage with only Cotchin and Stanton the major outs, so we can look to improve our teams rather than plugging holes in the titanic!TriggerHappy

Bye Considerations

Now is the time that you need to consider your future trades and the byes. The majority of trades you make in the next four weeks, these players are likely to be in your side for the bye so its probably a good time to glaze over your team and have an idea of who you are keeping and culling between then and now. I personally think  job security of our cows should probably get a little bit more weighting during this time, before they are culled in fear of losing $2k. It’s a fine line to generate cash, improve your team and make sure you have a good blend of bye rounds AND put up with the general week to week problems. Just too easy really!

Defenders

Seems to be a relief down back with Heppell returning for his coaches and Gibbs almost named so should be a shoo-in next week for those patient coaches. The Portlets in Stevenson and Heath hold their spots and both have pretty gettable break evens if you have to keep them, while ol Grimey is on the LTI list and needs to be traded ASAP.One bloke who won’t get his break even this week is Beau Waters! His name is a bit mud at the moment!

Nick Vlastuin ($147,700 b/e-38) – Probably the most solid pick for a rookie this week if you are looking to generate some cash. While he wont make a whole heap downgrading from a portlett, he will make a whole lot more cash in the next 2 weeks (projected $70 odd k) and has the best job security of the rooks coming through but is always a chance for the rest.

Heath Shaw  ($417,400 b/e 44) Do you want to hop on this roller coaster? So far he’s knocked out 3 x 100’s and 2 x 60’s so he’s due a 60! averaged 88 last year so is likely to win you as many matches as he loses. In form and good value.

Jarrod Harbrow – $410,500 b/e 59 While not exactly a household name down back, Harbrow has been pretty consistent this year (CR 13.2 actually) averaging 90 so far this season and only owned by 3 per cent of teams. Does share the bye with Essendon and Carlton backs though.

It also looks like people who traded Heppell out last week are trading him back in this week! Bling bling trades ain’t a thing!

Midfielders

Cotchin named in the outs and everyone jumps ship quicker than Buddy’s form? More about that later……How come everyone is keeping Stanton?  Other coaches think Ollie Wines time is up with a b/e of 84 but once again I’m not so sure…

Andrew Swallow $509,900 b/e 100 Swallow is excellent value at the moment. averaging 109.5 and only just over $500k, I think he will stay at this average for the rest of the season . Also handy with a rd 12 bye as premo mids from these teams are hard to come by (Scooter Selwood has put his hand up which is nice)

Luke Shuey $505,800 b/e 78  – after taking a couple of games to get going Shuey has pumped out 4 tons in 4 games and is now averaging 111 in his last three. I’d personally go Swallow but only 6000 coaches own him so he could win you a game or two. Round 12 bye again.

Jesse Lonergan ($127,000) may have only had 50 points but it did include 7 tackles! A pretty reliable downgrade but still have another week to have a second look.

Rucks

Let’s put the mockers on rucks now – Isn’t it nice that we haven’t had to worry about rucks this year? All they need to do now is score some F#^&ng points! Coxy is the exception, but guess who is back to take his ruck time? My conundrum this week is bloody Sauce Jacobs – I didn’t think the sun in Adelaide was that hot?

 

Forwards

 

Finally a genuine fallen premo to jump on! There are a lot of trades being invested in the forward line and most are genuine upgrades – and to my pleasure that includes Westhoff trades! Who down there can make our teams better?

 

Stevie J $543,700 b/e 58 Is almost the must have player of the round and the second most traded in player. Owns the second highest average in the comp and doesn’t look like slowing down anytime soon.

Dale Thomas  – $411,800 b/e 68 – The poor man’s Stevie J. A great addition to your forward line if you cant afford the aforementioned. Floated around at half back for a 121 last weekend, but isn’t likely to get that freedom against the evil Ross Lyon. Is still likely to be in the top 6 forwards at the end of the year and a bargain at this price. Easy decision.

Chris Knights – $323,300 b/e 7  A poor man’s Daisy Thomas? While not an upgrade per se, Knights is definitely a good option this week. Requires pocket change to trade up from a rookie and is playing a pretty outside game at the Tigs. Should have been mentioned last week but still great value this week. Showed us way back in 2007 what he could do, averaging 87 in 21 games and I think he will go close to that again.

 

Stubbie’s Holders and Folders

 

Trent Cotchin – I can’t find any information suggesting that Cotch will be out for more than a week and has likely been given the week off to rest for that knock he got against Freo a fortnight ago. Let’s build a team people, not just swap the guns we already have! HOLD

Beau Waters – To bring in a premium who is a late out and then doesn’t play the next week? geez that rage trade must have felt good! FOLD

Ollie Wines – Where is the loyalty? He should be a vital cog in everyone’s midfield until the byes. Yes he will plateau and lose a few thousand dollars, but has made $200k and is averaging 90 – I’m gonna need his points! HOLD

and finally….

 

Hoff

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

My Boy ‘The Hoff’. I even gave him benefit of the doubt last week.  From day dot I didn’t buy his fools gold stayed well clear of his roller coaster. Fortunately Westhoff proved me right and returned scores of 45 and 33 in the last 2 weeks seeing his price plummet. Now facing a massive breakeven of 209, he is a pretty good chance to return to his original price 3 weeks after peaking! FOLD

What a handy segue into…

 

The Ty Vickery Award

While I understand Westhoff was generally only brought in to make cash and was never really seen as a keeper, he still teaches us some valuable lessons.

1. A leopard rarely changes his spots. Yes he has a big ceiling, but also has a low floor. Consistently inconsistent.

2. Planned trades are dangerous  In a perfect world, all Westhoff owners would have done a straight swap to Stevie J last week but then came along the variables. Backline carnage and donuts everywhere, that trade had to be put on the shelf for a week. This is exactly the reason why I never bring in a player with a plan to trade him out at a certain stage of the season

 

There were other contenders…..

 Birchall/Waters/ Hartlett/Burgoyne   – All four would have been popular ins for either Gibbs or Heppell, with Birch, Hartlett and Burgoyne putting up  below-par scores in our hour of need, while Waters didn’t even show up! To rub salt into the would, he hasn’t even suited up this week!

But there was only one person who was ever going to get this award this week!

Westhoff is likely going to come out and smash it this week now, and lose me my draft league match, in which I will never hear the end of.

 

Running Review

Another good week for The Running Man this week, I never thought I would be so happy with 1940! Had some awful contributors like Birchall Cotchin, Motlop, Jacobs and Stevenson, but was rewarded for my loyalty in Bartel and Dangerfield and a handy score from the newly recruited Ellis (85) and McKenzie (80). Up to 415 overall now and 300 odd points of top spot. From what I have learnt, there are always going to be ebbs and flows of every player in DT and there seems to be too much knee jerking over players with a couple of bad scores or a week off. I’m pretty confident to say that players with proven history will reward you in the long run if you show the faith and ride the odd bad score of theirs. As last week showed me, if a couple of players have quiet games, odds on a couple of other will have belters. It’s pretty unlikely that they all go bang in one week, but it’s also pretty unlikely that they all have shockers. Consistency is the name of the game! Bit stuck on trades this week with Stevenson to Vlastuin locked, but unsure if I will dump Jacobs for Daisy or upgrade Dwyer to Knights. Currently looking at the latter as I like Knights sitting in F6!

 

Good luck this week and as Yazz told us in 1988: ‘The only way is up.”

 

As always give me a follow on Twitter @jimbobholder

165 Comments

  • dixon out

    • just a quick question should i trade in vlastuin or laird laird i feel has better JS but vlastuin probably has a higher scoring ability SUGGESTIONS PLEASE

  • Has anyone thought of Andrew Walker for the forward line?? BE of 67 and will run riot in the next few weeks. Daisy will be up and down like a yo yo.

    • Is this the same Andrew Walker who’s best season average to date is 82 (7 games) and best full season average is 76 (24 games).
      Not sure he is as good an option as you are thinking, season high score of 101 and low of 64…….not sure his ride will be as nice as Thomas’s.
      Funny cause he is having a really good start to the year, but not dominate DT like you might think……his SC scores have been very good though.

      • No must be different Andrew Walker – this one’s average is 86.8 against tough competition in the first 3 weeks, with an easy next 5 weeks to come, and change of role from forward to midfielder. Yes, dominating SC, and might be more reliable than soft as a Daisy, who will be injured by Round 11.

        • +1, daisy only gets uncontested possessions, as soon as he gets tagged he’ll only get you 30 dt points,
          Walker is a good POD player

          • Put this up earlier today for people asking who to trade between Stevie J & Thomas, for last 3 completed seasons. Of course some injury/sub affected games (includes finals).
            Injury for Thomas could be the issue…….but history will suggest the same applies to Andrew Walker. Don’t forget Stevie picks up a lot of uncontested stats too…..that’s what makes a good DT’er.

            Stevie J
            2010 – Ave 94.2 (22 games)
            2011 – Ave 105.3 (23)
            2012 – Ave 97.4 (21)

            Dale Thomas
            2010 – 98.5 (26)
            2011 – 104.2 (21)
            2012 – 91.8 (20)

  • Dwyer to Tom Lynch or Gray?

  • Stevenson to Vlastuin or Laird?

    Cotchin to Swallow or Murphy?

    • vlastuin and murphy (go with swallow if you wanna save 40k. it can’t go wrong either)

  • Is there something wrong with me to be thinking of trading Gibbs to Ibbotson ? He has a break even of 22, not a round 13 bye and I could then get Gaz for Cotch?

    • vlaustin over ibbotson, he’ll get you more money and i reckon they’ll score about the same

      • I got Vlaustin and SJ last week now I wanna get in Gaz for Cotch but I need to make a bit of coin to do so only other options are Gibbs to rollercoaster, I meant Shaw , one of the port boys to laird or Zorko to mid price fwd like knights or grey but none of this really appeals to me…….

        • gibbs to laird, cotchin to ablett, then you can use the extra money to do upgrades again next week

  • SUNDAY SQUADS:

    Melbourne V Gold Coast:
    Melbourne:
    IN: James Sellar, Chris Dawes
    OUT: Jack Grimes, Jack Trengove

    Gold Coast:
    IN: Campbell Brown, Steven May, Jack Hutchins
    OUT: Michael Rischitelli, Charlie Dixon, Karmichael Hunt

    GWS V Adelaide:
    GWS:
    IN: Dean Brogan, Adam Kennedy, Lachie Whitfield
    OUT: Curtly Hampton, Tom Bugg, Sam Frost

    Adelaide:
    IN: Nathan Van Berlo, Rory Laird
    OUT: Richard Tambling, Matthew Jaensch.

  • Community!! Need help!! DIXON is OUT. STANTON injured, and HOFF to lose money…. I want to go Stanton>Swan, and HOFF>Daisy thomas. This is a must win game for me (lol a carton of jacks on the line haha). I have Thurlow to cover emergency, but mates are saying i should go dixon> vlastuin and Hoff>Thomas and keep stanton. Should i accept loss this week for long term gain…

    • Hoff has to go. If you have cover for stanton then you should keep him so dixon > vlastuin

  • Thoughts on Marc LeCras? The alternative would probably be Dale Thomas

  • 2nd trade better in pure DT terms. Bragging rights, and the rounds pts, the 1st. Gotta choose the 2nd, i’m afraid.

  • To keep Moloney or Wines?? One of them > Ablett this week the other one will stay till rd 10

  • Vlastuin already locked in, really want Laird because Stevenson and Heath aren’t much use anymore.

    Anyone with an educated opinion on the sub scenario at Adelaide?

    • If it is someone from the bench, it won’t be NVB, Kerridge is doing jobs, Laird coming back from injury.

    • Out of Laird and Lyons. Laird is coming back into the side from a corked thigh. My guess would be Laird.

  • My team is crap at the moment (with Dixon, Not in Cotchin, Mr Protest Fyfe and crouch out) with half my team out and with the Hoff still on it. I need a little advice, is Jaspar Pittard named to play? And two if, not I have a hole in the BL and the MF with hoff in the FL still. If Pit isn’t gonna play I was gonna go
    The Hoff to stevie J (if I don’t get hoff out this week he will be back where he started in price I think)
    And
    Cotchin to D Thomas.
    And just take a goose egg in the Bl.
    What do you guys think? Any advice?

    • you’re right, your team is crap, pittard isn’t named to play
      keep cotchin and trade out someone in your backline so you dont get a donut
      cotchin only has a minor injury and will probably only miss this week

  • In a pickle
    Grimes – Ellis then Evans – Ablett
    Or
    Grimes – Laird then Kommer – Ablett
    What do you think?

    • Option 2

    • Already got Vlastuin? If not I’d find a way to get him in rather than worrying about Ablett this week (BE 127) who may not go up at all, but probably won’t rise by heaps.

  • just a quick question should i trade in vlastuin or laird laird i feel has better JS but vlastuin probably has a higher scoring ability SUGGESTIONS PLEASE

    • Vlastuin

    • I’d say Vlastuin’s JS looks much better after a raft of change and he’s not only still in but named on the ball.

      Also, Laird’s a shoe in for the green this week (as others have said) implying that he’s near the top of the list to be dropped.

      So Vlastuin.

  • To keep The Hoff or cop the 0 from Dixon?

    • Meaningless to answer without knowing who you are playing…if it’s going to be a walk in the park against your league opposition, ditch hoff and bench dixon, otherwise you’ll have to keep hoff if you have tight league games

      • Unless he’s just interested in overall position…

      • It seems to be a rather tight game in my Eliminator, this round I’ve traded Cotchin > Stevie J and Westhoff> Bartel. No bench cover in the back due to injury and suspension. I’ll probably end up copping the 0. But thinking about also trading dixon. thanks for the feedback

    • I’d probably get rid of the Hoff. So you’ve got 4 non-starters in the backs before trades this week? Waters, Gibbs, Dixon, and Pittard?

      • I should probably add, even if the Hoff gets 100 he’ll still lose >$40k. How many points is $40-60k worth to you? And how many points are you likely to gain by trading Dixon?

  • I’m getting Vlastuin in this week, I just have no idea who for. Options: Heath, Stevenson, Hartlett, Dixon and Pittard.

    Would like to have bench cover, but at the same time don’t like to get rid of under-priced players (Dixon and Pittard) and the other two Portletts need to be culled at some point. Also, I’m going to lose $15-20k on Hartlett this week, so perhaps he should go.

    • get rid of heath or stevenson imo i got rid of heath after some advice from this site!!

      • Cheers. If Hartlett can chuck another couple of good scores together his 32 will be forgotten. Also, NM have been the 3rd hardest team to score against this year, Richmond (who PA have this week) much easier. So fingers crossed.

        Also, I’d be unlucky to get a late withdrawal and team building is probably more important than having an emergency at this stage of the year.

        Here’s hoping that the Heath trade proves correct.

  • Thinking of getting Kommer in for $$$ earning potential. Or would Laird be better. Laird I think is sure bet for vest.

    • Laird will be brilliant trade if he avoids the vest, not many def on the horizon. Huge -if- sadly, otherwise i’d lock him in with Vlasty, argh!

  • ok stupid question but im gonna ask anyway… the chance of gibbs playing even tho hes not named on the bench or emergency means carlton risk a fine if they play him?? leave him on the bench then i guess?? tight game for me with beers on the line…

  • Okay, im still holding on to Byrnes, his recent 100+’s have helped me out, but last week was a 40. So its time for him to go, ( hes playing GC this week ), should i use DPP and get Ablett, then just go Heath –> Vlastuin. or keep byrnes another week, and get two Laird & VLastuin, im thinking long term, but this week in all my leagues, im versing the top sides/ ( 1st, 3rd and 3rd )

  • What do you think of this? Cotchin subbed out Trade Viney to Lonergan and Westhoff to Daisy leaves me with $241K

  • dwyer to kitchell lonergan or vlaustin

  • Our of interest does anyone on her know what Stevie J and Priddis’s Breakevens this week were?