The Numbers – Round 6

TheNumbers

I’ll keep it short this week, with a trip to footy’s capital hanging over me and a blessed Monday off work (spent mainly in transit) the catalysts behind the shortened version of The Numbers for what was another troubling week in the world of AFL Fantasy. So let’s start with one of the massive, bearded elephants in the room…

1 – NUMBER of seconds fast-fading forward Justin Westhoff spent in my team (and many others) after lockout ended on Monday morning. Dropping $50k this week, many coaches (myself included) have likely already replaced him with Dale Thomas whilst pocketing (ironically) a nice $50k in the trade. Mark my words: DO NOT hold him any longer. Westhoff should be your #1 priority on the trade table this week (barring long term injury). If anyone deserves a visit from Chopper, it’s this guy. Can we make it happen Roy, Warnie?

4 – THE specific number of letters that, when placed together combine for a popular profanity that would have particular relevance following the news that gun defender Beau Waters would be a late withdrawal on Sunday. Even more annoying for those who had just traded him in (with no bench cover in many cases I might add). Oh, did I mention that he’ll now miss this week too? Don’t shoot the messenger.

6 – TRADES I wish I had this week as several issues have arisen that are screaming for me to fix. With many rookies approaching their peak BE/price trade-off; and several planned trades I’m wanting to execute, there are simply not enough trades on the table to fix them all. Whilst I’ve been generally nonchalant about the ‘use-it-or-lose-it’ trading system, I’m bloody thankful for it so far this season. Additionally, to fix my team I’d also need $2m in cash and a squad that doesn’t have holes in it to the magnitude of Jeff Gieschen’s lies.

8 – GOALS scored between in-form goal-scoring Carlton dynamos Eddie Betts and Jeff Garlett. Against a borderline-uncompetitive Demons outfit, the goal sneaks had a field day, enjoying the added freedom given with the successful return of spearhead Jarrad Waite, who chipped in with 10 marks and 2 goals of his own. Too bad his return was short-lived following a certain ‘headbutt’ on Joel MacDonald. Should the Blues have won by more than 10 goals? Probably. Will they take the four points and newly-found top-8 position on the ladder? Absolutely!

78,100 – AMOUNT of money that was ‘lost’ as a result of a certain ‘safer’ trade that was completed on Friday. In a move that could’ve made you $300 and brought in a fantasy stud in Stevie J for topped-out Westhoff, the backline carnage ruined this plan for many (myself included) – instead seeing many ditch premium defenders to plug holes and avoid singular donuts. Given the man many brought in (Hartlett) had a rubbish week, the following number has spawned…

Number of the Week

71 – ADDITIONAL points you would’ve had if you had copped a donut in the backline and kept Gibbs, Heppell and Goodes, instead choosing to ditch Justin Westhoff for Stevie J – gaining the 136 points that came with him. The example I’m using relates to myself and many others – in going Gibbs>Hartlett, coaches effectively got his 32 points along with Westhoff’s 33 (totalling 65). Hindsight you wonderful son of a bitch, you strike again.

Whore of the Week

AVERAGING 82 points prior to Round 6, Patrick Dangerfield finally exploded in 2013 with a best-on-ground 35 touch, 8 mark, 2 goal and 145 point game on Saturday afternoon against the Hawks. I’m bloody glad I didn’t trade him out now – was worth the wait! Now the task for him is to use this game as a platform for him to launch his assault on this season.

Highlights Those who’ve kept Scooter Selwood would be smiling with yet another cracking performance as he now averages 113.7 for the year (4th overall). Cats duo Bartel (138) and Johnson (136) were fantastic against Richmond, whilst young-gun Jaeger O’Meara continues his swift rise with a 98-point score to average 86 in his debut season.

Lowlights – Stanton and Grimes’ sub-age and subsequent injuries; followed by several low scores by popular premiums Hartlett (32), Cotchin (62), Watson (54) and  Birchall (50) typified a horrible round for all (only one coach managed over 2200 for the round). The Hoff’s second shite score in two weeks has sealed his fate, whilst his fellow teammates and Port defensive rookies’ time appears to be running out with the highest being Heath (40).

Team McRath – My biggest issue becomes who else to ditch this week as Daisy Thomas is already in my side at the expense of the Hoff. I managed 1,854 for the week, which usually would be disastrous – but it seems 1,900 was a solid score this week with most copping the same carnage. I’m slowly climbing the rankings whilst trying to stick to my plan with all of the injury/suspension issues presenting themselves.

How many issues do you have to fix this week? Are the DT Gods stopping you from sticking to your plan? Let us know Your Numbers in the comments below. Alternatively, tweet me @McRathDT.

93 Comments

  • Nice one again Matty. Yes, the Hoff had gone for Daisy and I took the ‘safe’ defender option by bringing in Dixon – minor fail.

  • Brought in Scotland and birchall last week. While the Gibbs > trade spudded big time loving the result of Hoff> Scotland. This week I’m looking at daisy in and vlastuin as long as there isn’t more carnage.
    The issue is which midfield rook out?
    Wines, viney, or Whitfield ? Dwyer will also go from forwards.

    • I went wines.. He’s clearly the best rook, but has a BE of 84 and now’s the time to coin him with all the other upgrades i have to do..

    • Hold onto Wines and trade out Viney & Dwyer

      • If Viney cops another vest or is omitted then I will get Chopper over but if he maintains 50’s he will be 250K by the byes, one more game and that 18 will be out of his rolling average and it would take only 1 big score of 80+ to put him near 300K so I am not selling him for basically nothing.

      • i agree wines shouldnt be traded just yet…

  • Is daisy likely to price increase after this week?

    • Yes, BE of 68.

    • Yes, Breakeven of 68, if he gets 80 (predicted score), he’ll rise $5,300.
      I reckon he could ton up though…

      • I ca’t see Daisy getting as much ball over the next couple of weeks!

        • Same. He has one or two breakout games a year but rarely breaks out in a Swan/Pendles mode for consecutive weeks.

          • This years a bit different though, now there’s no more Toovey he’s going to be coming off half back a bit more now. They need his run, he’ll definitely average a bit more then last year

  • daisy has a BE of 68, so probably

  • Bloody hell Stanton, you just had to get another soft tissue injury. There goes my initial trade plans this week, now it will be Stanton to Murphy and Jacobs (Cox DPP) to Stevie J.

  • hanley or scotland?

    • Has to be Scotland for mine… Got a sweet draw the next few weeks….

      • i disagree. scotland won’t get a better game than the melbourne game. with gibbs gone scotland 100% controlled the back half and still couldn’t post a ton with 28 possessions. because lions are bad hanley will be around the ball a lot more.

        • Not so Johnny, the sides which are a bit more competitive makes scoring for backmen better because the ball can get locked in the back50 for periods……meaning more kick to kick down back. Against Melb defenders just get the ball forward to the next contest more often than not, so only limited cheap stats.
          Realistically though either Hanley or Scotland will be good and score much the same overall.

        • Check back in 5 weeks john…

  • 2243 predicted… Bring on the 1850!

  • Have gone Gibbs –> Vlastuin, Neade –> Stevie J

    Wanted to trade in Stevie J last week, but Heppell dropping out really ruined my plans!

    Never had the Hoff, but because of that I see it as karma for all the coaches who brought him in. While people expected to trade him out when he hit his peak, backline carnage occured forcing people to leave him on the field and spud it up over 2 weeks. While people still made money on him it’s funny how the situation panned out…

    • I don’t see why you’d consider it some sort of justice that Hoff that has failed recently because of the people who were opportunistic. Most of us recieved 300 pts in 3 weeks and 110k profit. Even those who held him a 4th week received an 80pt average player who made 60k profit.

      I do know some people who brought him in after his price rise, as if he was a keeper, and I do find that a bit funny.

    • Traded him out last week so made >100K off of him.

      Hoff for pres

      • 300 pts and 100k profit. One of the best trades around this year.

        • couldn’t agree more froggy…Karma?? But SHINBONER don’t know how you work that out mate. To me it seems you’ve got bad karma as you missed out on 100k and 300+ points. Does that mean i have good karma for missing most of the backline carnage?? I’ll try harder..

        • yeah, it pays to not sh!t yourself at the prospect of one donut!

    • Maybe get in Thomas instead of Stevie J for Neade, as even though SJ is a gun and is blazing at the moment that is a lot of money spent in one trade. Where as Neade to Thomas is only 160-170k and will save you a lot more.

      Other trade is good

  • I’m looking at Lester from Brisbane in defence, based solely on his break even. I know nothing about him… is he a worthy pick up?

    • If you’re getting him purely for the cash, then choose someone else. He’s not a proven DTer. Maybe look at someone like Trent Mackenzie from Gold Coast instead? Or perhaps a rookie on the bubble like Vlastuin. They would be better choice then Lester.

  • Grimes>Vlastuin will still leave me with 3 premo defenders in Goddard, Shaw and Harbrow(now a premo IMO), with Gibbs still languishing on the bench.
    Hoff>Stevie J will be the other trade. That leaves me with 200k in the bank. Go for it? or do I need to trade Grimes to another premo, or quasi-premo instead of Vlastuin. Vlastuin seems to be a must-have rookie.

    • If Heppell is named this week (a possibility IMO) then go Grimes to Heppell, even though it wastes 60k odd, it gives you a consistent performer and keeps your 4 premo back line.
      Just anther option really, but all depends if he is named this week, the other trade is good though.

      • i still scored 2000 with grimes’ 14. therefore was still scoring allright with, essentially, 3 premo defenders. when gibbs is back i will have 4 down back.

  • I have a plan, I know they never work out, but want to eventually have two rooks left standing in the mids (premo rooks) and one more el cheapo, so I am guessing the bomb is a keeper for m8 and then one more with good js for bench and one more spud with potential game time price increase for late cash!!! I would like to keep wines but the cash is too good he needs to turn into a premo, so who else for cover Dwyer/neade/crouch and which spud gets a chance, or throw viney in as cover coz his js is good and he has not made the coin but looks a chance too. Throw in Mayes and that is the numbers 7. Into 3. All bar crouch across my team in either mid or fwd.
    Give us ur thoughts:)

  • dwyer will make way for dids / ball / beams et al and will probably be in and out of the team for the rest of the year… I am keeping Mayes as I recon one bad game wont hurt his js plus dpp…keeping

    I am holding onto neade for a few weeks expecially if he plays.

    I have no idea what to do this week. I held Gibbs so thinking of a downgrade and upgraed Dwyer to Stevie J. Even though thomas will rise this week he can wait another circa 400k more attainiable than 550

  • do i need to replace grimes with another premo? or should i just go with vlastuin?

  • Option(1) Daisy & HeppD
    Option(2) Stevie J & Vlastuin
    Option(3) Stevie J & Trent McKenzie
    Option(4) Stevie J & any player going for around $350k, in any positions, Luke Ball etc looks nice, but too early….etc etc

    Any advice appreciated, thanks.

    • better yet who is going to win out of geelong and essendon you reckon? if geelong win stevie j will smash it, if essendon win heppd will smash it. it geelong lose stevie j wont smash it, likewise if essendon lose heppd wont smash it, that is the kind of players that they are

  • Option 1
    grimes to hanely
    stevenson/ heath to vlaustion
    Option 2
    Grimes to vlaustion
    mccafer to thomas

    • Option 2 looks good, except Macaffer looks like he currently has good JS so maybe another forward rookie.
      Maybe if you have Viney or another under performing mid rookie and Neade/Mayes you could:
      Trade out the under performing mid rookie and then used DPP to put Neade/Mayes into mids and then upgrade to Thomas.

  • The “Number of the Week” does not exist. I did not read it. It does not compute, and hindsight is not telling me I’m an absolute bunny who knew better than to hang onto Westhoff for another week.

    It was always worth the defensive doughnut… @McRath, you put that kind of pain into your articles again, and I might not be able to bring myself to open them in the future!

  • Thoughts on knights in for westhoff?

    He’s been pretty consistent so far and frees up a fair bit of cash

    • Brave….

      • Coming from a richmond supporter that worries me haha

        He’s been good so far though,or is it better to sideways to a premo and avoid having to upgrade knights later?

        • Everyone had Knights a few years ago. Is he really better now? Maybe yes, and if you think so then go for it! Sort of like Harry O and Harbrow down back, looking good for 80+ every week and still reasonably affordable

  • 0 – the number of times anyone who knows anything about DreamTeam will listen to the advice of Dr Dream Team over the course of a season

    • His advice this week will be..

      Get stevenson and heath in NOW!! Drop swan as he isn’t scoring at 130+ and get on justin westhoff in 2 weeks, his price is gonna drop and should make a good F2 or F3 for the year.
      In other news i got my first pube and named it Mr Fantasy..

    • Amen

  • Great article McRath! Always entertaining, keep it up mate :)

    Currently fuming as I just realised I could have had a fully upgraded back line (using two trades) and got rid of the worst premium ruckman I have had in my team: Sauce Jacobs (using 1 trade)

    • Curious as to how. You know you can only make 1 sub for a trade right?

      • I don’t know what you mean, please rephrase. What I mean if it wasn’t for all this carnage in defence. I could have gotten rid of the Hoff last week, upgraded one of my back rooks last week as well. This week I could have sideways traded the under performing Sauce Jacobs as well as maybe getting in a fallen premo mid/back for another rookie.

  • Nice article McRath. Loved your reference “a squad that doesn’t have holes in it to the magnitude of Jeff Gieschen’s lies.” Saw the empire builder on the couch last night.
    This pushing in the back rule is clearly being mis interpreted by the umpires…and the Geish tried to make it sound simple but in fact confused all with his gibberish.

    • The frees being paid this year are a joke. If you were a footy fan in the 80s and inadvertently slipped into a coma and watched your next game last weekend, you’d swear it had been spliced and inter-bred with soccer. It definitely speeds things up around the ball with less stoppages, but that’s cold comfort when it’s your team being penalised.

      • 2 – the average number of frees paid per game the fan on the street understands!

  • Does anyone know if Gibbs will play this week or not?

  • PLEASE HEELLLP ,
    this is my first year of dream team and I was just wondering what to do with the byes and how it all works, which trades would be the best for the byes ??

    • Don’t worry about the byes yet and in the byes only ur best 18 players will make up ur total scores

  • If this is your first year, just get a good team, try not to factor in the byes too much.

    This year for the byes, the game takes your best 18 from any position, so it’s really quite lenient.

  • thanks a lot :) that is actually not too bad :)

  • Can I just point out that the Eagles play 3 of the 6 leakiest teams over the next 6 weeks.

    Bris
    North
    GWS
    Melb
    Saints

    With the mega high possession game West Coast plays and their strongest side almost in place, I’d bet a dollar or two they’ll be the highest scoring team up unto the bye.

    • and nicnat’s sub 34 would of rolled thru for the gws game! Another reason to get SJ this week I guess.

  • Don’t worry about the byes they said. It will be fun they said.

  • Should i trade gibbs?
    I alsohave Hartlett, Heppell, Goddard, Birchall which means 5 premo defenders

    • i had heppell and gibbs and ended up trading gibbs as his BE was 120. i figure when he comes back he can play a week or 2 and drop in price a bit. then if i’m looking for a defender i might pick him up again.

      i’m not saying you should, just giving you food for thought. ultimately you have to decide whether to trade him. but i would ahead of heppell who looks to be in the mix for this week.

      • There are no options in the back line that really appeal to me though and I dunno if any mids do either

  • What to do? Hoff out and who in? Buddy or Garland or Murphy or Walker. Hawthorn and Carlton both have fav draws over next 4 – 5- weeks.

  • Erm, Garland? Are you insantemental?

  • does anyone know what going on with gibbs this week?

    • He has been ruled out for this game.

      • do you know what round he will come back? im trying to decide whether i should downgrade gibbs>vlastuin or A. Jospeph (who ive kept too long) for vlastuin not sure what i should do?

  • 0- The number of weeks more that I want Crouch to be out for. I seriously want a downgrade target so I can upgrade a Portlet in defence but I don’t how long Crouch is going to be out for. Does anyone know when he is going to return, especially this week as Adelaide are vs GWS this week.

  • Went Gibbs and Hoff -> Scotland and Stevie J

    Pretty happy.

  • Deciding who to swap Hoff for. Either the new DT pig in Stevie J or Daisy?! The latter will allow me enough cash to do a double upgrade next week. Thoughts?

    • i have gone daisey for that reason i think he will play across half back and run amuck hopefully

  • Is there a source for info that Gibbs won’t play this weekend?, alot of people are saying it at the moment

    • a hamstring injury doesnt take one week to recover from.

      • Well all I have heard is it was minor and he could return this week so im sorry for not knowing it was a hammy

  • with all this talk about trading m.wright out, do we think this is the week we should?

    he comes up against GWS… a team he could easily score 100+ on…

  • any thoughts on lester or brodie smith.. like the look of these two

    • don’t know lester but brodie smith was allways going to be a lock in Adelaides def just back from injury(collarbone).