Leftys In-Vestments – Round 4 Scorecard

Hi all…so how did I go picking the subs this week? To make it easier to compare I have simply updated Thursday’s article with the actual green vests listed…

 

LeftysInvestments

Welcome to Lefty’s In-Vestments, where I will have a crack at picking the dreaded green vests for each weeks games. Nothing is more annoying than seeing your player with that horrible green vest on and it can cause fits of rage and expletive filled rants in the middle of family lunches (ask my fiancé about Karnezis the other week..)

So to try and avoid any more embarrassing outbursts, every Thursday night from now on I will assess the team line ups, look at the last 3 green vests for each team, and try and work out the most likely starting sub candidates. I will also try and outline the Sunday teams likely green vests from the squads of 25 (good bloody luck I hear you say and I agree!)

So here we go – Round 4

 

Adelaide Crows

In – Lynch, McKernan, Kerridge, Laird, Lyons

Out- Van Berlo, Vince

Last 3 Subs -          Martin, Porplyzia, Vince

Lefty’s #1 Sub – Johncock. Look to inject late in 3rd quarter across half forward and give a burst of contested footy and goal scoring.

Lefty’s #2 Sub – Lyons. Youngster trying to break in may be eased in via green.

 

Green vest – Porplyzia

 

Brisbane Lions

In – Harwood, Crisp, Karnezis, Paparone, Docherty

Out- Polec, Yeo

Last 3 Subs -          Beams, Karnezis, Polkinghorne

Lefty’s #1 Sub – Karnezis. The Karny clown may well continue the heartbreak and cop the kermit suit.

Lefty’s #2 Sub – Harwood. Gives options for Vossy by being swung anywhere on the ground.

 

Green vest – Paparone

 

Carlton Blues

In – Warnock, Curnow, White

Out- Kreuzer, Davies, Buckley

Last 3 Subs -          Joseph, McLean, Buckley

Lefty’s #1 Sub – Lucas. Hasn’t shown enough since his good NAB cup form, may be used as sub to spark him into action.

Lefty’s #2 Sub – White. Can play back and mid, may free up scotland to play on ball by taking his place in the backline late in game?

 

Green vest – Joseph

 

Collingwood Magpies

In – Seedsman, J Thomas

Out- Frost, Johnson

Last 3 Subs -          Dwyer, Seedsman, Fasolo

Lefty’s #1 Sub – J Thomas. Smaller running forwards are the green rage at the Pies.

Lefty’s #2 Sub – Seedsman. Looks the most likely other than J Thomas but I pretty sure it will be JT.

 

Green vest – Daisy Thomas (where the hell did that come from??) Also Josh Thomas got the red

 

Essendon Bombers

In – Hille, Winderlich, Pears, Baguley, Merrett

Out- Ryder, Colyer, Kommer, Fletcher, Kavanagh

Last 3 Subs -          Zaharakis, Kommer, Colyer

Lefty’s #1 Sub – Merrett. Surely will be the green in this line up?

Lefty’s #2 Sub – Winderlich. May be eased back after injuries?

 

Green vest – Winderlich

 

Fremantle Dockers

In – Neale

Out- Pavlich

Last 3 Subs -          Sutcliffe, Sutcliffe, Sutcliffe

Lefty’s #1 Sub – Neale. Late run could be a massive boon for the dockers

Lefty’s #2 Sub – Sutcliffe. Ross Lyons pet sub of 2013 may be the new Andrew Gaff!

 

Green vest – Neale

 

Geelong Cats

In – Rivers, Horlin-Smith

Out- Varcoe, Murdoch

Last 3 Subs -          Horlin-Smith, Stokes, Caddy

Lefty’s #1 Sub – Horlin-Smith. Looks pretty much a certainty.

Lefty’s #2 Sub – Smedts. Hasnt set the world on fire but can score goals in bursts

 

Green vest – Caddy (Smedts got the red)

 

Gold Coast Suns

In – Murphy, Prestia

Out- Allen, Russell

Last 3 Subs -         Matera, Brennan, Russell

Lefty’s #1 Sub – Prestia. Fits the bill of running goal scorer and returning to side.

Lefty’s #2 Sub – Shaw. Named last on bench and I couldnt find another better choice.

 

Grren vest – Russell

 

GWS Giants

In – O’hAilpan, Miles, Palmer, Golds, Tomlinson, Townsend, Frost, Haynes

Out- Brogan, Hampton, Smith, Patton, Hoskin-Elliot

Last 3 Subs -         Adams, Hoskin-Elliot, Reid

Lefty’s #1 Sub – Miles. Supposedly not the favourite son but if he can get his attitude right is no doubt of his potential.

Lefty’s #2 Sub – Whitfield. Coin toss amongst 5 so this is an out an out guess(maybe Golds if he gets a game)

 

Green vest – Miles

 

Hawthorn Hawks

In – Osborne

Out- Anderson

Last 3 Subs -         Anderson, Savage, Gunston

Lefty’s #1 Sub – Osborne. Goal kicking runners have been the trend here and given his leg issues seems logical to ease him in.

Lefty’s #2 Sub – Puopolo. Same type as Osborne, and could be very damaging as a fresh runner versus a 2/3 game weary opposition.

 

Green vest – Savage. I picked the right type of player but didnt get the right one

 

Melbourne Demons

In – Spencer, Watts, Gawn

Out-

Last 3 Subs -         Blease, Rodan, Toumpas

Lefty’s #1 Sub – Bail. Should be the sub, reasonable runner and offers a bit of flexibility.

Lefty’s #2 Sub – Watts. Maybe playing him fresh against tired players will give him a boost of confidence?

 

Green vest – Davey

 

North Melbourne Roos

In – Anthony, Greenwood, Sierakowski, Daw, McKenzie

Out- Tarrant, Harper

Last 3 Subs -          Anthony, Jacobs, Wright

Lefty’s #1 Sub – Gibson. Last years star has struggled this season – may be reminded he needs to put in every week?

Lefty’s #2 Sub – Anthony. Has already adorned the green this season, Scott may go with him again.

 

Green vest – Anthony

 

Port Adelaide Power

In – Gray, Cassisi

Out- Mitchell, Stewart

Last 3 Subs -         Mitchell, Mitchell, Mitchell

Lefty’s #1 Sub – Neade. Port will be wary of overtaxing the lightly framed young forward.

Lefty’s #2 Sub – Gray. Returning from injury may be eased in AFL duties

 

Green vest – Gray (Neade got the red)

 

Richmond Tigers

In – Nil

Out- Nil

Last 3 Subs -         Nahas, Ellis, Ellis

Lefty’s #1 Sub – Knights. Pefect vest candidate for mine, runs and hits the scoreboard and as a veteran should be managed through year?

Lefty’s #2 Sub – Ellis. Going for the unwanted threepeat of green – surely he gets to start this week ahead of Knights?

 

Green vest – Ellis

 

Saint Kilda Saints

In – Simpkin, Siposs

Out- Newnes, Blake

Last 3 Subs -         Dennis-Lane, Schneider, Ray

Lefty’s #1 Sub – Siposs. Look for him to play last quarter on the ball

Lefty’s #2 Sub –Saad. Run, carry and ability to hit the scoreboard may be enhanced against tired opponents?

Note : If T. Lee was quicker I would select him but I think he is too slow to be an effective green but very likely red vest.

 

Green vest – Ross (late inclusion)

 

Sydney Swans

In – Morton, Rampe

Out- Bird, Everitt

Last 3 Subs -          Armstrong, Bird, Bird

Lefty’s #1 Sub – Morton. The ideal running goal threat for late in a tight game

Lefty’s #2 Sub –Armstrong. Was the sub first round, and can be swung forward and back

 

Green Vest: Morton

 

West Coast Eagles

In – McKenzie, Dalziell

Out- Embley, Brown

Last 3 Subs -          Embley, Dalziell, Cripps

Lefty’s #1 Sub – Dalziell. Running power late will be very handy

Lefty’s #2 Sub – Hams. The pint sized speedster plays in bursts and holding him back may be a masterstroke late in the game?

 

Green vest – Dalziell

 

Western Bulldogs

In – Boyd, Markovic, Cordy, Tutt, Howard, Stringer, Johannisen, Macrae

Out- Murphy, Higgins, Wood, Campbell, Dickson

Last 3 Subs -        Smith, Stevens, Smith

Lefty’s #1 Sub – Stringer. May be eased into season via green vests to manage body.

Lefty’s #2 Sub – Tutt. Burst type player may be held back til 3rd quarter

 

Green vest – Stringer

 

My number one vest pick for the weekend – Morton (Sydney) – nailed it!

 

So in the end 5 of my number 1 picks were correct and 4 of my number 2 picks were the bearers of green this round. Not a terrible ratio for my first effort i reckon (9/18) and hears hoping I can improve that as the season goes on.

Cheer!

Good luck – and feel free to tweet me when I get it right/wrong over the weekend!

@Lefty113

Centrebet

22 Comments

  • Avatar of EmeraldIllusion

    Good effort Lefty. This article definitely comes in handy.

  • Avatar of Ben

    It is an impossible task. Some of the green and red vest decisions are pie in the sky stuff.

    All you can do is make educated guesses and then watch as they implode over the course of the weekend.

    Thanks for your efforts Lefty.

  • Avatar of Shags

    I reckon it will become a bit of an artform, and lefty will be nailing it by the end of the year. you got 10 /18 (I gave points for red sub too, and counted both your choices). Which is excellent work

    Just some feedback lefty, after you two main choices feel free to name the whole pool of players you think could get a sub. There would usually be a pool of about 5 players sub could come from.

  • Avatar of Serenity Now

    I agree, very tough and a thankless task Lefty, well played for trying and adding a rigorous thought process to it. 1/18 is not as bad as it sounds.

    Whilst we are at it, and it doesn’t get much air time anymore, I f en abhor the sub rule and I reckon all players would too. Who wants to be dragged or play just 1 qtr? Injuries have actually increased by 8.67% since it was introduced (but remember 76% of all statistics are made up). Shame Jobe couldn’t get the Dons to lay down Sally for him a few years back, most probably too jacked up on peptides to understand what he was saying!

    • Avatar of Tim

      As it stands, it’s a useless rule for limiting injuries. Players currently just have 1 fewer players to rotate with (and limiting the number of rotations will just exacerbate the problem). It’s currently just used as an injection of pace at the end meaning that it also doesn’t really minimise the effect of injuries either(3 players v 4 on the bench is similar to 1 fresh v no fresh players on the bench). In order to do that you’d really need 3+ subs per week (heaven forbid – from a DT perspective).

  • Avatar of Serenity Now

    Sorry 9/18. My abacus tells me that is 54.34%.

  • Avatar of brody tombides

    Fantastic work Lefty! your article was a work in art and helped me a lot! i think coach favourability is a huge factor aswel as the obvious hackness of the player

  • Avatar of

    currently have 370k in the bank

    do i do the typical and chase for money

    viney -> evans
    kitchell -> mayes

    leaving me with like 440k to upgrade next week

    or do i jump on birchall now before he rises again leaving me with 70k in the bank?

    then next week downgrade a rook and potentially pick up grimes/hartlett which gives me a strong backline

  • Avatar of Recall

    I’m sorry. It’s a great effort to hit 50% but this article should be turned into a tipping comp with a couple other writers. Most dt’ers would make an educated guess already. This isn’t criticising the article just trying to make it a bit more fun

  • Avatar of jayden williams

    Whats Stevie J’s break even???

    Cheers.

  • Avatar of Nix

    Good job Lefty,

    I had a go at this 2 years ago. Difficult to get any better than 50% – so that is good going. Even harder if you are picking before the Sunday benches are reduced.

  • Avatar of jayden williams

    What’s Stevie J’s break even?

    Cheers.

  • Avatar of Jaimon Yuen

    Hv 240k spare
    Wat to do with Moloney?
    And wat rookies r worth downgrading now for another cash cow? (e.g Mayes)

  • Avatar of Jack

    Can u please help me what team should I go with this week
    Team1: def: Gibbs,Goddard,heppel,goodes,pittard,Stevenson (Terlich,Heath)
    Mid: swan,ablett,cotchin,pendlebury,hodge,molony,wines,o’meara (neade,Evans
    Ruck: cox,Berger (blicavs,Naismith)
    Fwd: hoff,bartel,rockcliff,wright,Kennedy,Mayes (Dwyer,macaffer)

    Team2: def: birchall,Goddard,Gibbs,goodes,pittard,Stevenson (colquhoun,Heath)
    Mid: swan,ablett,cotchin,pendlebury,heppel,molony,wines,o’meara (viney,k.mitchell)
    Ruck: cox,Berger (blicavs,Naismith)
    Fwd: hoff,bartel,rockcliff,wright,Kennedy,Mayes (Dwyer, macaffer)

    Plz tell me your thoughts on wat team I should go for this week and in team1 after next week I 150k to upgrade hodge and in team2 I have 5k so tell me ur thoughts plz