The Numbers – Round 3

TheNumbers

Numbers… They are what DT is all about! Price changes; break-evens; the number of Essendon-related media articles… the list goes on. In 2013, I will strip the records clean on a weekly basis and scour the web for numbers different to those we spend our days staring at… Staring at in the hope that we’ll have a fantasy football epiphany; and all of the secrets of the DT Universe will be revealed.

The Numbers… Putting calculators out of a job since 2012.

2 – Weeks that popular Essendon rookie Nick Kommer will now spend on the sidelines through suspension after his work against Freo on the weekend put him in hot water. A seemingly late but terrible attempt at a shepherd turned ugly as Kommer clipped Kepler Bradley on his way down, causing the Docker to be taken from the field with bloody gushing from his face. If, like me you have the Dons’ hard-nut, then you need to move him on this week before on-the-bubble rookies like Crouch (BE of -61) and Rowe (BE of -63) bolt and it’s too late.

3 – The amount of wins that dominate the top half of the AFL Ladder at this point of the season. With an amazing 5 teams all currently undefeated, there are some very happy coaches in the league at the moment. Congrats to the Bombers, Power, Swans, Tigers and Cats for their great early-season form; and similarly commiserations to GWS and Melbourne plus a surprised North Melbourne and Carlton as the four of them sit squarely on in the bottom quadrant with a disarming 0 – 3 record to start the season.

5 – % of game time that Freo defender Luke McPharlin saw on Friday night before getting knocked out by a bump from Essendon ruckman Paddy Ryder that is sure to be reviewed heavily by the MRP. For those that may have McPharlin in Draft-style leagues (let’s be honest, you wouldn’t have him otherwise), his zero score may have caused problems as despite not getting on the board – the second a player steps foot on the ground their score (zero or otherwise) counts towards your total.

6 – Estimated rounds that Carlton ruckman Matthew Krezuer is expected to miss with a broken thumb. After starting strongly yet again, Kreuz succumbed to the injury after just 19% of game time – leaving 17.2% of coaches with a 200cm problem in their ruck division that needs to be sorted this week.

7 – Number of DT tons Eagle JJ Kennedy had scored over this 8-year career prior to this weekend. Long known for his standing as a promising key forward, he seldom racked up big scores as his main source of output was purely in goal scoring. Well, in 2013 this is changing as he plays further up the ground and well outside the goal square; and the results are outstanding. In the first three rounds alone, he’s banked 12.3 Goals, 45 Possessions and a DT average of 103 showing that JJK is ready to break out. Currently outscoring fellow gun forwards Buddy Franklin, Matthew Pavlich and Taylor Walker, Fantasy coaches may now be looking at not just a stepping stone to a premium – but a keeper in their forward lines. Not bad for $272k!

8 – Minutes it took for returning Blue Heath Scotland to reassure Carlton fans in his first game of the season on Sunday. Taking possession from the throw in, Scotland calmly snapped the first goal of the match from 30m out to put the Blues on the board and bring a smile to Mick’s face. Sadly there were no smiles after the match from the Carlton camp as they fell to another strong finishing Cat’s outfit, which triumphed 119 – 103 points to hand the Blues their first 0 – 3 start to a season since 2008.

14 – Number of premiums* Oliver Wines outscored with his 25 touch, 9 mark, 5 tackle, 2 goal performance in the Adelaide Showdown at the weekend that resulted in a massive 126 DT points. As well as beating out a mass of Fantasy jets, he now boasts an average of 102 points to be hands down the best rookie performer of 2013 (so far). Is this guy a star or what?

141 – Rarely does a stat from the VFL (or other competition for that matter) get mentioned, but given the relevance of the nature – I found it interesting. Given Blues’ ruckman Matthew Krezuer’s ill-timed injury, it’s convenient that they have a brilliant tap-ruckman sitting in their reserves. Brought across from WA a few years back, Rob Warnock is yet to fulfill his destiny at Carlton. Spruiked as possible trade bait in the offseason, Malthouse declared him a required player and the talk was quelled. The bad timing of Kreuzer’s injury (given the stark situation at VISY Park at the moment) is bettered only by the excellent timing of Rob Warnock’s brilliant form in the VFL at the moment. His game of Saturday was outstanding as he helped the Northern Blues to a 164 point thrashing of Bendigo, with ‘Knockers’ tallying 21 touches, 7 marks, a goal as well as 56 hitouts for 141 DT points. Surely, Mick will look to recall the giant this week for his first game of the season.

57, 700 – $ that 2012 GWS sensation Toby Greene lost this week for his owners. Greene unfortunately tops the list of the biggest price droppers for the week as he struggles with the extra attention that comes with being a young superstar. His owners should have really jumped off last week, but if you stuck strong and backed him in – you should hold him now given he’s likely to bottom out in the next few weeks as he looks to steady his break-even with big scores against Melbourne and the Gold Coast in the next two weeks.

161, 800 – The $ amount you would’ve made if you were smart enough to offload underperforming Dayne Zorko (51) this week for in-form Port star Justin ‘The Hoff’ Westhoff, who scored 140 and rose $68k. You would’ve also made a massive $93k from this trade, while second-year Blues victim Zorko dropped a huge $47k. Cheers to Simon Innes (@thanme on Twitter) for this one.

*Based on 2012 midfielders with a 100+ DT Average.

Send me your ‘Numbers’ for the week @McRathDT

 

Talk of the Town

Despite his previous mentions already, I would be lax if this guy wasn’t mentioned here. Before 2013, there used to be a player that ran out for Port Adelaide every week. His big mop of hair and quiet persona made him a ghost in the DT community – someone seldom talked about due to his middle-of-the-road, never-be-picked-in-DT nature. Fast-forward to Round 3 of the AFL Season and there is this new bloke roaming around the Port forward line. He kind of looks like a young Jesus Christ and is playing like a man in his prime. ‘The Hoff’ as he’s appropriately named, befits the awesome form that he’s started the year with. Averaging between 70 and 80 the past 3 years as a second-tier half-forward doesn’t exactly inspire the phrase ‘pick me’. But his performances over the opening rounds of this season have everyone talking about him. Currently rolling with a Swan-like average of 131.3, he still has a negative break-even (-20) and with the Gold Coast this weekend, another big score looms for the young-Jesus. His price is set to top out around an insane $550k, which means you could likely jump on board (if you haven’t already) and trade him down to a Buddy Franklin-type in a few weeks and make money. Thanks to the new trading schema, this is possible and relatively risk free. That’s Dream Team for you.

 

The Benchmark

I won’t go into this in great detail, but I would like to congratulate ‘The Mick’ coach Mike again. Mentioned here last week for being top of the rankings overall, Mike held onto the mantle with a solid 2049 points to be on top two weeks running. With the strong competition and huge amount of luck involved at the top of the tree, it’s a huge effort to stay there for multiple weeks. Great job Mike – now can you make it three?

 

Whore of the Week

Correct me if I’m wrong, but I thought Dustin Martin was supposed to fade in the second half of games and shy away for a score of 90-odd? Well the nay-sayers were silenced on Sunday as the young-gun tore the sorry Dogs to shreds and went on a rampage with 35 disposals, 10 marks, 3 tackles and 2.1 goals – totaling a round-high 144 points. It’s been said all summer – but this is Dusty’s year.

 

The Round Up

Highlights – Ollie Wines, come on down! After an amazing debut that earned him a rising star nod, he bettered that in R3, scoring a premium-esque 126. Westhoff’s 140 and Cox’s 132 was bettered, however by Scooter Selwood’s brilliant 142 against lowly Melbourne. JJ Kennedy deserves a mention here too after scoring another ton on the weekend to give him an average of 103 heading into R4.

Lowlights – Kreuzer’s broken thumb-induced subbing for just 21 caused waves in the community, whilst Zorko’s continued failings should see him ditched by several more this week after a measly 51 (against the Suns no less). Our solid run with our Port defensive rookies slowed this week also, with Pittard (28), Stevenson (40) and Heath (49) getting far less ball against the more seasoned Crows.

Team McRath – Two trades cost me dearly this week. Whilst they looked great on paper, hindsight and ill-luck conspires to now make me question my entire season. Instead of offloading the out-of-form Zorko, I bargained by ‘downgrading’ Mundy to Brent Moloney (82) and used the cash to ditch Karnezis for in-form Matthew Krezuer (where I could’ve had Westhoff) to sure up my ruck division. Luckily Kreuz only lost a few dollars and Moloney still did his job – but compound his 21 with underperforming ‘guns’ Zorko (51), Danger (95) and Ablett (105) plus all of the lowest-scoring rooks; and I got the lowest non-MBR score I’ve ever got, along with a tidy 50,000 weekly ranking – throwing me back into the pool of the masses around a ranking of 8,676 after my good start. Back to the drawing board.

How did you do in Round 3? Did your trades come off, or fail miserably like mine?

Feel free to shout out some feedback in the comments, or perhaps put forward your own creative Numbers for the week. Also – if you’re not already… follow me on the Tweetvine @McRathDT

222 Comments

  • So I should keep molony

  • Who should I trade kümmel to crouch or k.mitchell to crouch gonna get Mayes next week coz he should get game time with beams out

    • Kommer to Crouch.

    • doesn’t really matter. Both won’t play and you will be getting rid of both by next round but if you want a little extra cash do mitchell to crouch

      • I agree, I think the power are using Mitchells gut running against tired opponents, plus I’d expect him to be dropped to the rookie list this week anyway, but keep an eye on him when he returns later in the season.

  • Kreuz -> Rowe/Sinclair

    Stevens -> Cotch/Watson

    Yay or Nay?

    Thanks

  • I need to trade Pavlich out of my team but I still cant decide between Westhoff, Monfries and Lecras. What would be my best option? I have 170000 in the bank

    • Westhoff has the lowest BE and plays GCS. You can basically sideways him to Buddy or Stevie J after this week.

    • I think Walters is one who slips under the radar a bit too with a break even of 27, but yeah westhoff is a better buy unless you can invest the spare cash somewhere else (:

  • Need your help boys… Do I offload Zorko and Varcoe to Hoff and JJK/LeCras/Dusty or bring in Swallow… I also have Mumford with a break even of 145 which is almost as much as his last couple of scores put together.

    • That’s a tough one, you got a lot of choice here.

      In my eyes, Zorko and Mummy first. They’re leaking serious cash, whereas Varcoe won’t. Dusty, JJK, Swallow all good options there!

      I’d then go Varcoe to Mayes the following week when he’s on the bubble

      • My predicament here is that I have both mCaff and Karnezis on my bench, the Mayes trade is one I’ll be doing for sure but I have far too few options up forward.

        • Hmmm, that’s a problem. You’ll have to wait until teams are announced before making the call then, Karnezis and Macaffer are a decent chance to return this week.

  • should i trade moloney for hodge???

  • alright need some help here i had kreuzer, waters and varcoe but i have got good emergencies to cover for varcoe and waters. i have to trade krezer but i dont know who for????? and should i keep waters and varcoe?????? also is it still worth getting the hoff???????

    Please Help??????

    • Goldstein + hoff

    • I’d prioritize Kreuzer and Varcoe, both LTI, and Waters is a chance to return in 1-2 weeks, so there is merit in holding him for one more week. Best case scenario, Waters plays next week.

      Hoff is definitely still worth getting, he has a negative BE and projected to rise another $50k this week.

  • Should I keep molony or get him out and out wines

  • I having trouble with the same thing. If we didnt have the two trades per week I wouldnt. However you can easily trade him out for someone like Franklin or Johnson in a few weeks and you may make $50-70000

  • I can trade Kommer to Crouch and then Upgrade Karnezis to Westhoff leaving me with exactly $0…was it meant to be?? or is having $0 in the bank a bad idea?

  • Hey ppl,
    I lost Varcoe, Patton and Kreuz but thinking I’m gonna hang onto Kreuz cos he’s out 3-4 weeks now..
    I have two options and I can trade in either
    Dustin Martin OR the Hoff
    and
    JJK OR Stokes…
    Thoughts please…?

    • I’d trade Kreuzer for sure. No point holding onto him with 2 trades every week!

      I’d personally go:
      Kreuzer > Goldstein / Berger
      Varcoe > Hoff / JJK

      Next week:
      Patton > Mayes

  • Wtf this is my last time I am gonn say this do u think it is a good or bad call getting rid of molony to go to wines thoughts plz

    • What are your other mid options to get rid of?

    • Both are stars and NEED to be in your team so drop a underperforing premium or mid-pricer and pocket some extra $$$$

    • heres an idea: make your own mind up!
      Also, people answered you at the top of this page.

  • I have swn ablett cotchin pendlebury danger

    • Ablett, Swan and Danger are options for wines

    • Well I wouldn’t trade anyone cos you’ve missed the boat on wines, but I’d drop Dangerfield as Moloney will generate alot more cash in the coming weeks and when Brisbane finally start playing well he might even be a keeper, and if wines keeps his form he will score the same and Dangerfield and make alot of cash!

  • Yeah but do u think it is a good call or bad call

  • If I get wines it will leave me with 89 k for next week but if I keep molony it will leave me with 2 k next week wat one should I do

    • you need wines in your side so what i would do is trade danger for wines mainly based on form.

    • Get wines but only if it’s for danger, otherwise leave it be

  • zorko to the hoff or rowe
    is rowe worth downgrading for the cash? or is hoff worth the points?

  • Frost > Terlich
    Kommer > Crouch

    I don’t have Rowe or Sinclair. (Currie & Blicavs RUC, Macaffer, Neade FWD). Worth going Rowe over Crouch or Terlich?

  • Kruezer – Goldstein
    Zorko – Westhoff

    Way too many z’s in my team and also chasing Westhoff’s cash low. This will still give me enough 270k to upgrade Embley next week and get in Mayes. Thoughts???

  • 1 trade: I have Zorko and Karnezis with 300k. Who Should I Trade and who too, Im thinking Zorko to The Hoff and next week Karnezis to Mayes, then have 400k to upgrade any rookies. Thoughts and Help!?!?

    • Go Zorko to hoff and then karny to whoever is going to make cash eg Dwyer. Then trade that player to Mayes next week. Not using trades when players aren’t playing and there is money to be made is crazy.

      • If there aren’t other places where that trade could be more effective, eg. Bringing in Terlich or Crouch, and you don’t think you’ll need that trade next week too, then yeah, go with that.

  • Only 2 trades available from the following combo. Who should miss out?
    Trade out: Mitchell/Kommer/Majak
    Trade In: Terlich/Couch/Rowe

  • Who would you trade in out of Rowe and Crouch? Reasons?

    • crouch! van berlo looks like he could miss and mids usually rack up more points than fwds. depends if you have a non point scoring mid? i think rowes score may reduce if warnock plays and if waite is available in the next week or two.

  • I need to either keep molony or get rid of molony and gt wines wat should I do

    • mate I just read the whole page and you have asked the same question 10 times. just relax and read the prior posts!! what do you think you should do?

      • Probably keep molony but but I’m not sure coz wines will make more money and quickly so can u tell me wat is better if I should get wines or should I keep molony

        • keep moloney and get wines. both will rise quite a bit. the problem with DT is you can’t have everyone! so just prioritise who will go up most in value and who could possibly be a keeper!

      • Or I could keep molony and trade danger for wines and get hodge and get Stevie j next week

        • So I should get rid of danger and get wines this week

          • You definitely need to hop onto Wines, but keeping Moloney is wise because he will still go up. Dangerfield playing Bulldogs so may cop Nick Lower’s tag?

            Yeah hop off Danger in my opinion, get Wines.

            Give Hodge another week, I’m doing the same and am going to switch out GAJ for him if Hodge gets a 110+ and if Gaz gets below 110.

            Watch Stevo, but dont hop on yet, give him time to recover, as he will still drop a bit

        • Isn’t that what i just said?? it is hard to plan trades next week because of injuries and team selections. Stevie J will most likely drop in value and looked still injured last game (knee).

  • So many similiar sides, two v.good players I play this week have almost identical sides to me. Never occured in the past, make of that as you will. The skill is gone, stock market game now.

    • Have heard this a few times now. In one H2H game I played last week we had 16 players in common…yet I still lost. There is still skill and luck required to win, be it league or overall and until I or you have won the 50K I can’t see how we can think any different.
      I do agree it seems to be a game of dollars at the moment, but it’s only 3 weeks in and we’re all shopping! I’m sure (hoping) once rookies have peaked the strategy as to whether to hold or sell will come back into play.

  • Which 2 of B.Goodes, Terlich, Pittard or Stevenson on the field this week?

    Which 2 of Wines, O’Meara, Crouch or Viney on the field? Thinking Wines on form, O’Meara as he’s at home, Crouch at home and against the doggies and Viney at home and against GWS. So leaning toward Viney and Wines at the moment, though I could drop Danger (Lower tag) and put on Crouch. Bit shy of O’Meara this week after last week.
    All help appreciated.

  • No doubt this will change when teams are announced but I am expecting all to play

  • Terlich is playing GWS so chuck him on your pitch, plus he made 75 against WC

    I am personally going with Goodes because he has looked MUCH better in my opinion, but Port are playing GCS so there’s a chance of a 70+ score from Pittard/Stevenson.

    I am playing 3 backline rooks, because there are better quality rookies back there than the forward line, and im choosing Stevenson over Pittard simply because he’s been slightly more consistent, and Pittard made 28 last week and has put me off

    Wines obvious start, shouldn’t even be asking that question

    Im going with Wines, O’Meara and Viney because Viney’s playing GWS finally a team he can roam around a bit against and rack up close to what he made earlier. Same with O’Meara, facing Port.

    I would go;
    Goodes &Terlich
    Wines&Viney

  • i have Kruezer in my rucks and was thinking of bringing in Goldstein but im worried his form bubble is about to burst (for the worst!). Zorko is also bleeding to much cash to keep in so, Do i:

    A – Trade out kruezer for westhoff and move cox into ruck. Then trade Zorko for Martin

    B – Trade Kruezer for Goldstein and Zorko for Westhoff?

    OR

    C – Kruezer for Westhoff, cox into ruck and go Kommer to crouch. Reason i dont like this trade is i possible sacrifice points by keeping Zorko and his price decrease will half any increase i make from crouch

    • B

      Martin has had one good game, wait for a little bit longer before hopping onto him

    • I had the same problem, must’ve hit the reverse changes button at least 15 times. Finally decided Zorko->Hoff and Kommer->Crouch. Kreuz can go next week as he’s not gonna lose any more money whereas Hoff and Crouch will make more. Yeah people don’t like $400k sitting on the bench but better that than having Zorko lose us more money and frustrate further. I love Zorko and REALLY REALLY want to back him in, he plays Nth this week and Melb next, but just can’t.

  • Chances of Zmith pumping out fairly consistent 80’s? I’d be leaning to no, though if he was worth keeping i could move cox to the fwd line for poor young patton and plop berger in the ruc alongside zmith… this would be a ‘2 birds’ trade as i have to get rid of patton at some point (giving me more options for rd 5 trading). however, one good score doesn’t mean smith is worth holding… thoughts on the rest of his season?

    • you’re a smart man, I was actually keeping this to myself hoping to have a good POD, traded Shulz to luey and kept smith, showed he can score well with greater ruck load (Dixon was injured).
      Worth the risk I think, will be upgraded when the time is right

  • who’s more worth trading in, rowe or crouch

    crouch is likely to generate more cash however rowe gives me dpp with rucks

    • Rowe

      They have both scored similerly so far, and normally I’d say mid rookies have more potential to acrue value faster than non-mids; but if you look at Rowe’s score breakdown, he hasn’t gotten a lot from rucking hitouts, yet managed a nice 65-odd. With Kruezer out, Rowe will get more hitouts, and that can only increase his numbers.
      Also, Rowe’s more likley to retain his place in the near future because of the Kruezer situation; who knows if Crouch will get a rest.

      • That’s a good point but Warnock is ready to go after some good form in the vfl so Rowes role shouldn’t change, and I don’t think crouch will be dropped any time soon as there are a few others who would go first, plus van berlo is injured so that should give crouch enough time to peak and be downgraded.

        • Rowe will likely get more Ruck time even with Warnck due to Warnocks limited mobility… The other issue for Rowe though is the Waite factor

  • DEF: Birchall, Gibbs, Goddard, Goodes, Stevenson, Pittard (Heath, Terlich)

    MID: Pendles, Swan, Cotchin, Sam Mitchell, Ablett, Moloney, O’Mearea, Crouch (Viney, K.Mitchell)

    RUC: Cox, Berger (Blicavs, Daw)

    FWD: Martin, Kennedy, Rockliff, Buddy, Neade, Dwyer (Rowe, Macaffer)

    $279,300 left.

    was thinking Kane Mitchell > Mayes in the midfield, then subbing Mayes for Dwyer leaving Mayes starting FWD and Dwyer on MID bench, giving me more flexibility. Leaving $251k left.

    any help would be appriciated, cheers

    • Pretty good team mate, too bad you missed wines, I’d swap Mitchell for wines for points and cash in the long run and wait til you see the round 5 teams before swapping for mayes

  • Will Ablett play??

    • According to him he will
      From AAP “Ablett said X-rays had cleared him of any fractures and follow-up scans on Monday had not revealed any major damage.

      He was not sure how the hand was injured against the Lions but seemed certain he would run out against the Power.

      “I’ve got to get through training Wednesday night but the hand’s not feeling too bad,” he said.

      “I can’t really clench it yet but I’m sure it’ll be fine for the weekend.”

  • Has anybody noticed Mullet he has been doing amazing and his mid-price

    • Yeah I dumped lucas for mullett after round one. Best move I’ve made this year. May not set the world on fire, but hoping he gets up near 500k at some point and can sideways to a premium. Hes got a little cash left in him but there’s better rookie cash cows atm.

  • 54. The number of points that Zac Smith got after Dixon was injured according to their respective Dream-Stats graphs.

  • Ok guys. I had a really shit round in round 3, due to getting hit by the Kreuzer AND the Patton injury. Plus Jelwood let me down a little.

    I’ve got a big chunk of cash in the bank, so I am able to do any trade I like really. Was thinking about going Kreuzer to Goldy and then Patton to Westhoff (just because he’s making so much cash). I do have Kommer, but figured the other two are more important to fix atm. Are these smart trades? Or should I just bench Patton for now and look at an upgrade somewhere else? Should I get Goldstein in or Leuenberger?

    • Luey for cash generation, keep kommer and drop patton, kommer still has plenty in him, he’s only out for 2

  • Neade,Rowe,Dwyer,Macaffer which 2 on field

    B.Goodes,Pittard,Stevenson,Heath which 2 on fiels

    and my trades are:
    Karnezis – Sinclair
    Kommer-Swallow

  • 10 – The amount of seconds into the game it took Brett Deledio to score a goal this week.