Lefty’s Leftfielders Scorecard

 

lefty

Welcome to this week’s slightly different edition of Lefty’s Leftfielders – where we will assess my ‘left field’ selections from the preseason and give them a Win, Pass or Fail mark. We will also have a look at some (now!) obvious ones I missed…

Nick Riewoldt

Scores                         82,108
Average                      95
B/E                              68
% owned                    3.31%
Verdict                        Win

Very happy with my choice of Nick Roo – in an underperforming forward line he has been excellent. And he has GWS to beat up on this week in our first H2H games!

 

Craig Bird

Scores                         DNP, 19 (Sub)
Average                     19
B/E                               N/A
% owned                  1.25% (really?)

Verdict                     Fail

Injury and the progression of Parker have stalled Bird’s season to date. I will keep an eye on him in about 5-6 weeks but I can’t really see him becoming fantasy relevant in 2013

 

Nick Suban

Scores                         97,72
Average                      84
B/E                              -14
% owned                    6.58%

Verdict                        Win

Very satisfied with the ‘Subahero’ as I named him in my drunken state as I watched him go to work against my beloved Eagles in the Derby. More mid field time has been the key here.

 

Harry Taylor

Scores                         61,31
Average                      46
B/E                              128
% owned                    4.17%

Verdict                        Fail

What can I say – he sucked me in with his Nab cup form and the way he destroyed big Tex. He is playing purely a negating role and gone are his big towering marks and running off his man.

 

Brent Moloney

Scores                         96,101
Average                      98
B/E                              -16
% owned                    20.51% (Wow this was about 6% when I did my article!)

Verdict                        Win

Going beautifully is the big bull – and has the Gary Ablett Suns this week to wreak some havoc on. Actually in about 4 weeks the trade of Moloney to GAJ might not cost that much……

 

Stefan Martin

Scores                         47,60
Average                      53
B/E                              101
% owned                    3.29%

Verdict                        Pass/Fail (depends on this week)

You may think I am being generous with giving Stefan a Pass/Fail mark, but almost all the rucks (with the exception of Kruz, Minson, Pyke and Goldy) really struggling to even hit their B/E’s Martin hasn’t been great or awful. An 80+ score this week will have me happy and a Pass– any less and he gets a Fail.

 

Kieren Jack

Scores                         107,121
Average                      114
B/E                              68
% owned                    2.74%

Verdict                        Win

Comment                   The son of a gun from Sydney has delivered exactly what I hoped given the Swan’s soft early draw. He has scored more points than the higher priced and more popular picks like Ablett, Cotchin, Murphy, Deledio and Thompson.

 

So there you have it – out of the 7 Leftfielders we found 4 Wins, 2 Fails and a 50/50 depending on how this week goes. Thankfully with the 2 trades a week rule we  have had some great options to fix them – here are some of the less hyped players pre-season that have blossomed.

 

Right out of Left Field – otherwise referred to as “I should have known….”

 

Charlie Dixon

Position                      Defender
Price                            $304,800
Scores                         98,110
Average                      104
B/E                              -30
% owned                    1.12%

Well where the bloody hell did this come from? All of a sudden Dixon is number 1 ruck at Gold Coast, as well as clunking marks and kicking goals when resting forward. Looks a real player who has jumped out of the blocks this year and has little competition for his spot.

 

Mike Pyke

Position                      Ruck
Price                            $341,400
Scores                         73, 107
Average                      90
B/E                              20
% owned                    2.04%

The big Canuck has continued his amazing form from last year’s GF to be one of the real surprises of 2013. The combo of Mummy and Pyke with Tippet, Goodes and Reid is a frightening proposition for opposition coaches.

 

Justin Westhoff

Position                      Forward
Price                            $394,800
Scores                         100,157
Average                      123
B/E                              -23
% owned                    0.70%

The bloke who missed the shot after the siren that gave the Gold Coast Suns their first win (and won me over $500) seems to have finally put that behind him. The concern though is his scores have been against lowly Melbourne and Giants – he has Adelaide to contend with this week so we might get a more accurate gauge on his form…

 

Tom Liberatore

Position                      Midfielder
Price                            $401,300
Scores                         120,120
Average                      120
B/E                              -5
% owned                    1.15%

Little Libba seems to have turned the corner since his well-documented off field dramas. No Boyd has meant Tom has been getting a lot more of the ball – my only worry is what happens when Boydy comes back??

 

Anyway I hope this series entertained a few of you (I stayed away from the injury affected JJK, Embley and Luey as they seemed obvious choices for me). I was never expecting to get them all right – in my own team I also took chances on Kane Lucas and Zach Tuohy (thanks a lot Carlton Potato Farm!)

Good luck with you pre price change trades – and go big Stefan against the Suns this weekend!

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66 Comments

  • Deff: gibbs, hanley, shaw, goodes, pittard, Stevenson (heath, terlich)
    Mids: swan, ablett, pendles, cotchin, jack Whitfield, wines (Mitchell, jones)
    Ruck: Krueger, berger (blicavs, rowe)
    Fwds: chapman, bartel, rockliff, zorko, kennedy, karnezis (dwyer, mccaffer)

    So basically, all my bench players are scoring well.

    This following issue has been keeping me up since sunday night.. do i trade zorko for westhoff, pocket the extra dosh and get cox or do i trade zorko for cox? i am doing pretty well overall (top 200) and i dont know if i am willing to risk 40points this week (cox plays demons) for a 70k pay rise.

    whats everyones opinion?

    my other trade will be mitchel for viney.

  • thoughts on these trades karnizes for dixion or dwyer and dangerfield to watson or libba

  • I’m going to risk bringing in Dixon, could be worth it and if it’s not he’ll go up in price enough for me to bring in an under performing premo.

  • has anybody thought abut mullet. is he worth the risk will his form continue and if so would you get rid of ziebell or cunnington in elite

    • I am also considering bringing in mullet. looking to trade Kitchell for a cash cow. I’m tossing up between mullet or merrett for kitchell

  • This week trades
    Thompson (adelaide) to Liberatore
    Currie to Berger
    Thoughts and is there anyone else i should consider instead of Liberatore up to $465,000

  • This has me seriously considering getting westhoff for Zorko and keeping him for a round or two. My other trade is Karnezis to Kennedy. Also have k Mitchell but ill just trade him to crouch next round.
    Thoughts?

    • Good thoughts. Westoff wont be a good longterm option but good cashcow. Wait til he peaks then swap him to stevie j/daisy or anyone in good form. Jjk is a no brainer, just hope that you get no injuries this week or you might miss out on crouch!

  • Jack

    Tell me wat is better

    Get rid of zorko and get westhoff then get watson

    Or get rid of wright and get westhoff then get stanton

  • Jack

    Or get rid of zorko and get westhoff then get rid of karnezis for jjk and keep danger instead of getting watson

    • Keep danger, dont sideways trade. Everyone is jumping on watson this week when he will get a very hard tag from crowley. Jjk should be priority

  • hi guys,
    how do u calculate a players break even score?
    i have bruest and kennedy and want to calculate what they need to score this week
    any help is appreciated

    • you could get assistant coach, it gives you every single BE

      • thanks mate, just activated the free trial

        • Get on FFGenie (ffgenie.com). It’s a whole java spreadsheet of all the players DT scores, BEs, expected rises for the next 3 weeks (based on continuing to score at their average), and the price they would approach if they averaged their current average indefinitely. You can easily add filters so only your team’s players are listed or only backs etc. Really good to see who are likely to be the big rises by simply clicking on “break” and it sorts all players by their BEs. Way better than Assistant coach.

  • http://dream-stats.com/home click any game then click the player you want it comes up with a list of stats including BE

  • Keep Koby Stevens? Or trade him? Worried he could keep getting vested.

  • Jack

    Should get rid of karnezis for Kennedy
    Or
    Get rid of danger and get watson/stanton

  • Thanks Lefty. Jumped on KJack when Boyd went down and have really enjoyed seeing him rack it up the first two rounds. Good call.

  • Got 273k. I should trade Hibberd to Heppell (-97k).
    - Get rid of Embley ?
    - Upgrade JPK to Watson/swallow/other ? Already have Swan, Pend, Mundy, Embley + rooks
    - move Cox to replace Karnezis + Kreuz to partner Leuey ?

    thoughts ??

    • I’ve got Embley. Keep him. He averages over 100 against Melb (excluding his injury and red rested 19 last year) in the last five years and over 100 at the MCG during the same period. Admittedly he’s getting old and has been injured since much of that form, but as long as he doesn’t get the vest, shouldn’t he do just as well against the current Melbourne outfit? He should at least beat his BE of 37.

      • Tending to agree although I don’t want him to be a vest candidate each week. He should still make decent coin I think. Might upgrade JPK to a premium. Might go to Swallow as it balances out my byes if he becomes a keeper, and his $$ should increase short term so I could upgrade again if he slips up. The Hibberd – Heppell is a no brainer really….

        • Northern nemesis, So you are considering upgrading a premium you chose at the start in JPK to another premium in Swallow………but he is not necessarily a keeper so you may have to upgrade him again?? Did i get that right???
          This is where 2 trades a week is going to separate good teams from the rest, JPK has couple quiet games and likely to go well this week, Swallow to big games likely to have quiet one. Swallow has played Pies and Cats, who don’t tag and always give up a few big DT scores.

        • By the way, Hibberd to Heppell is a good trade option though. That is something that will improve your team.

  • what are everyone’s thoughts on Cooney???

    • I traded out Danger for him, cooney is playing like barlow. Which also means he wont get a tag. Great pick

  • Nice piece Lefty, and I’ve actually been waiting for Dixon to do this… has superstar written all over him and would love to see him put together a string of good games. He seems a confidence player to me, so if things go his way early he can dominate. Can’t squeeze him into my side just yet, but may be a good D5 target once a bit more of his form’s exposed.

    Have loved the way Jack goes about it for years now, but again couldn’t squeeze him in… went JPK instead, which has backfired a little.

    Interesting of those you’ve listed initially, Bird and Taylor were always going to be duds in my mind. All the others had potential, and makes me wish I’d followed your advice all along. Great stuff!

  • Great to see someone go back and look at their preseason predictions! Should be more of it. I wonder how the other calls are going….

  • This weeks dilemma: What to do with Kane Mitchell?
    I was thinking of 2 trades this week;

    Hartlett to Birchall – Birchall is on fire and projected to rise in price next week with a BE of 44 and Hartlett could go either way but has a BE of 106.

    Karnezis to Dwyer – Next I was seriously considering trading out Karnezis to Dwyer for the quick cash grab as he could only be around for the next 2 weeks with so many key Collingwood players returning.

    However, with Kane Mitchell set to lose money in Dream Team this week, so should I stick by Hartlett and cash grab in Neade or Jones? Or should I stick by Kane Mitchell who only needs a BE of 27

    • What you have to remember is that Mitchell and Karnezis have both had sub affected scores. Let’s assume that Mitchell doesn’t get either vest this week. What do you think he would score? My guess would be about 70. If he has a patch of 4-5 games without copping a green vest he should gain about $150000, so I’d hold on to him (you won’t be getting much better than that out of anyone else). As for Karnezis, he should be considered in a similar way. He had the green vest on until half way through the last quarter. His average should be about 75 this year. He also has some easy games coming up, so if he can get full games he will still do well. As for Hartlett and Birchall, I think that is a good trade…is there anyone else underperforming in your team that you can trade instead?

      • Mitchell to Crouch will be a popular trade next week the way things are going…

        • I already have Crouch, Jaeger Bomb, Wines, Viney and Whitfield – Mitchell was my bench

      • Hmm yeah but if i went to Neade for a once week cash grab, I would be earning like a bit more than if I was to stuck with Mitchell regardless of whether he got the vest or not. I mean Neade is going to go up considerably this round and even if Mitchell does there will be a cash bonus.

        Um not really, everything looks set. My early upgrade players are going to Varcoe and Karnezis. Possibly Kennedy and Patton after a big price rise (Might be keepers)

        Why do you ask?

  • Huh? JJK is injured?????

  • J. Steven -> Moloney
    A. Goodes -> JJK

    Are there any better trade ins than Moloney and JJK? Have stacks of cash to play with.

  • What’s a good amount of cash to have left over before the price changes?

  • Jack

    Watson or sam Mitchell

    • You really can’t go wrong, but honestly, I think Mitchell is better value at the moment. Also look out for a 90 from Jobe when he gets a hard tag from Crowley this weekend. Mitchell has had much harder opposition so far as well, so watch for him to possibly even improve his average from now on. Mitchell for me by a small margin.

  • 1 trade left, who do you reckon to trade out from the following:
    -Hartlett
    -JPK
    -Karnezis

  • I’m going completely YOLO this season and sacrificing points early to build a mega huge kitty early in the season. Got 630k in the bank and will have close to a Mil after 2 downgrades next week. Nailed 98% of the best rooks. Ready to go bang and upgrade to 4 super premos in weeks 5-8 in which I will have a much better idea of who is teasing is in the first few rounds and who’s the real deal.

    • With you there… I’m bringing in Wines & Leuenberger this week, then Terlich & Crouch next week to get the best rookies. Upgrading from there. Hopefully have the best mid-pricers as well to still post decent scores in this period of cash hoarding.

    • Will be interested to see whether this strategy works… I’m doing something very similar, and in theory it should guarantee you’ll have the strongest team in the run to the line

      • But will too much damage already be done? I was tempted to ditch Danger and Zorko for Dwyer and Neade for there price jump…

  • Brought in Dixon this week (YOLO), but now I have the dilemma of only choosing one of Pittard or Stevenson to start this week. With Terlich also in the mix, who would be the best pick out of the 3 to play this round?

  • 2 trades to make – looking to trade KMitchell & Karny (and possibly Hibberd,Zorko,JPK) to jump on the bubble boys.
    Possible inclusions are Libba, Hoff, Dixon, Merrett & JJK.
    Karny > JJK seems an obvious choice.
    Should I jump on Dixon for Hibberd as sideways trade for the quick cash (to grab Goddard or Birchall) or look to offload Mitchell to Merrett then Crouch?
    Thoughts? Cheers

  • need help… should i trade danger for Howlett or Libba??