Tagged Out? Danger and Thommo

thompsondanger

So, finally NAB cup action is getting under way! While we fiddle around with our teams and get into some NAB Cup research, I’ll take a look at some players who might warrant a tag this season, and also some that may start to avoid them. Tags can have a massive influence on a premiums DT scores, very few can break them to score to their potential! Let’s take a look…

Patty Dangerfield

After a standout season, especially his last 7 games (averaging 120) Danger was the breakout player of 2012. We all knew he was capable, and he finally delivered by improving his uncontested ball game dramatically. However he became so damaging to opposition teams that he started to warrant a tag ahead of Scotty Thompson. There was some alarming signs.

Whilst his season may have ended on a high, you need to take into account who he was playing. His last 5 games of the season were against Essendon, Fremantle, Brisbane, Melbourne and Gold Coast. Now I have no doubt that he will post some huge 130+ scores again this year, but when your paying $525,000 for a premium midfielder you would want to be getting some form of consistency. His finals series really concerned me. Everyone had started to realise he was there most vital player, so the number one tag went to him every time. He scored 71 against Sydney, 64 against Fremantle and 95 against Hawthorn. They’re not great numbers, and with opposition now keenly aware as to the threat he possesses I’m almost 100% sure he will be receiving the number 1 tag each and every week. Of course he will break it occasionally but if he is prone to sub 80 scores against good opposition, I’m not sure you can back him in as a premium midfielder. Better, more consistent option out there this season with guys like Murphy, Fyfe, Selwood and Redden all underpriced in my opinion. Not for me, however something good could come out of this.

Scott Thompson

Thommo is getting on a bit, now at the ripe age of 29 (soon to be 30). Due to Adelaide’s lack of a dominant midfielder since Ricciuto’s retirement, he has had to put up with most teams number 1 tagger each week. However with the sudden rise of Dangerfield,  he may start to avoid that nasty tag most weeks. He usually racks up possessions, but can sometimes be held back by his kick:handball ratio. If he starts to get more freedom on the pitch he could certainly maintain his average, if not slightly increase it. He is prone to the occasional mare, he had 3 sub 66 scores (59, 65 and 65) last season. However if he escapes the big tags these should be few and far between, when allowed to collect his own footy these blips on the radar should disappear. His ceiling won’t increase, but his consistency should. If allowed more freedom this year, and I certainly expect him to, then we should see him push his average to elite level. 110+ is definitely not beyond him!

Just some food for thought, this pre-season is becoming a real shocker. It seems never ending! I’ll have more of these articles to come, with guys like Fyfe, Gaff, Boyd, Martin, Zorko and more still to go under the microscope! Cheers.

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24 Comments

  • great read, i will definitely be going with good old thomo as i am a die hard crows fan and he always ends up getting cheap possesions and marks towards the end of the game. Also which selwood were you referring to as being under priced ??

    • I can only imagine it being J Selwood, who is primed for a big season. I have him locked.

      • Sorry, should have been clearer. Was referring to Scotty actually (WCE supporter) but I reckon both Scott and Joel are definitely underpriced this season!

        • Alright thanks! I have joel in my team and really considering putting scott in there as well

  • I think this also makes Matthew Wright worth looking at.

    • Depends on what role he ends up with, looks like he will run through the middle but can perform a tagging role also… Need to see more of him during the NAB!

  • absolutely wright however a year older and stronger patty dangerfield will kill it this year look out world patty’s coming

  • Good read & definitely something to think about. One a player has a breakout season, they get noticed, both by spectators, commentators & oppositions!

  • I don’t know why people don’t have confidence in Dangerfield. In 2010 Pendlebury broke out to 106 if people were scared of getting on him in 2011 because they were scared of him getting tagged, they missed out on a guy who averaged 116. I think Patty should average about 110-115 this year.

    • It was probably his finals series that concerned me the most, he got all the attention from the opposition and averaged 77. Just his consistency that worries me, as a premium midfielder you can probably find safer bets, especially with Murphy so cheap. Still, he could continue to breakout like Pendlebury, we’ll have to wait and see…

  • I have had Danger locked and loaded since Feb 1, but, does that leave Sloane as Crows’ M3 as such meaning he might have more of an easy opportunity to slut off the pack for easier possessions with Danger and Thommo being oppositions primary concerns?

    • He certainly does seem to slip under the radar, you would have to ask a Crows fan on his prospects!

      • I am a crows fan, but I am worried that he may cop a lesser tag. It could potentially come down to each individual opposition coach.
        I am very tempted to put him in as a smokey at the moment, but will have to see a bit more of him in the NAB cup

  • Nice write up. Would be interesting to see what Thommo’s numbers were like in those games where Danger copped the tag. When Danger’s numbers were down, were Thommo’s up?

    • Very interesting point and a very interesting correlation. In the games that Dangerfield failed to crack the ton (13) he averaged 79. In those games Thommo averaged 109, cracking the ton in 9 of those games (including a 99). Very rough calculations as it’s hard to tell when Paddy had a day off and when he was tagged, but the correlation certainly suggests that when Dangerfield cops the tag, Thompson steps up. Prime example when Dangerfield got the Jones tag against St Kilda and scored 79, Thompson scored 141… Make of it what you will.

      • Hmm that does certainly encourage the pick, just not sure if it does enough though. If it was something like 115 when Danger was tagged then I’d really be on it, but a 4ppg increase (and that’s assuming the scenario happens every round) isn’t quite enough when guys like Murph, Redden and potentially Stanton offer more than that.

        • Without knowing exactly which games he was tagged (I just went by below 100 scores)if you look at the games Dangerfield scored below 80, Thommo averages 115. Even stronger correlation there maybe?

          • Perhaps, now that’s more like the numbers I would want to hear if I was considering Thommo purely on Danger taking the taggers.

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    • Nice write up MattCraigDT, I hope you don’t mind if I give my cash league a plug…..

  • thanks for that MattCraigDT, am looking at going Murphy instead of Danger instead.

  • Good read. Goddard and Stanton would make a very interesting combo for this, with the knowledge that Jobe will likely get the number one tag and seeing who may be next in line and the impact that could have on their scores.

    • true, I will have a look at that. The only issue is that I’m not sure how many of Stanton’s poor scores were due to tags and which were due to poor performances. I would definitely think that Goddard is at risk, Stanton maybe less so now…

      • Stanton is currently in my team (but with the cursor hovering over the ‘T’ button to swap him to Redden) purely for that reason, Goddard drawing tags away from him. It is definitely true that Stanton got tagged more later in the season, when his scores went from penthouse to shithouse, so I’m sure there would be a connection between the two.