Beau Waters – Deck of Dream Team 2013

jan13_watersName: Beau Waters
Club: West Coast Eagles
Position: Defender
Assistant Coach 2013 Price: $472,100
Bye Round: 12
2012 Average: 91.6
2012 Games Played: 19
Predicted Average: 86

 

Why should I pick him?

Because he makes Glenn Archer look cowardly and Josh Hunt look like a metrosexual. If that’s not convincing enough, Waters is coming off a career-best season, averaging 91.6 points per game – eclipsing his previous best of 87.5 in 2010. He also turns 27 this year, meaning that the fearless Eagle is in the prime of his career. On top of that, Waters one of the best intercepting Defenders in the game, generating 70% of his points (or 64 points per game) from marks and kicks alone. Backmen can typically drift in and out of games depending on their team’s fortunes, but Waters’ booming left boot and critical cut-off role means he generates enough of the footy on his own accord to keep his scores up.

One major misconception of Waters is that he’s inconsistent. Whether that comes from his prior injury/suspension record, or the way he seems to scores in patches, I don’t know. But the stats don’t lie; Beau scored less than 79 points in only 3 of his 19 games in 2012, and these all came after his late-season knee injury. In fact, before that injury, he averaged  97.4 per game with a low of just 79.

Picking Waters also works well with the bye situation this season. West Coast shares the Round 12 bye with Geelong, Melbourne, North, St. Kilda and Sydney, which leaves just Grimes and Enright as the only two other defenders who averaged over 80 last season that will also be out of action that round. With a Best 18 system in place for the MBRs, byes aren’t as critical as they were last season, but they are definitely not to be ignored.

The likelihood of West Coast having a strong season also bodes well for Beau’s scoring. They’re currently 3rd in Premiership betting, and coupled with my personal prediction that the Eagles with be the break-out DT side of 2013 (much like Richmond last year), this could result in a further increase in scoring to an already very capable fantasy backman.

 

Why shouldn’t I pick him?

 His availability is a huge concern for coaches. He missed 3 games last season, two through injury and one through suspension. Add in the fact that he played just 8 games in each of the 2008 and 2011 seasons, and missed the entire 2009 campaign, and it’s not pretty reading for any prospective buyer.

That’s not even taking into account the ankle injury he sustained during the Finals series last year, or the hip surgery he is still recovering from. While he should still play Round 1, I find it difficult to pick a player without a decent NAB Cup showing at an absolute minimum.

It’s purely speculation at this point, but there is talk that Glass may step aside as Captain, leaving the mantle open for Waters to take a crack. I honestly don’t know whether this will be a good thing or a bad thing for his scoring, but it’s worth keeping in mind if it does eventuate.

 

Deck of DT Rating.

QUEEN – There’s no question that Beau Waters is the bees knees when he’s fit, but selecting him knowing his track record with injury and suspension is always going to be a risky move. We’ve got away with it in seasons past on a value basis, but he’s priced like the Premium he is this year.

The fact that he’s still recovering from hip surgery on top of a fresh ankle ailment and the lingering threat of further elbow concerns is enough to scare me away at this stage, and it probably offsets his tempting Round 12 bye. After his knee injury last season he averaged 81.7 per game, and it’s this kind of output that I see being the norm in early 2013 with a limited pre-season, rather than the 90+ average that he’s clearly capable of.

VISION: Beau Waters Tough Moments

 

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29 Comments

  • Nice one Tbetta. One of my main selection criteria this year is durability/reliability. Waters does not make the cut for me.

    • Shouldn’t be an issue with two trades every week, can afford a few risks this season

      • Good point. But I’d rather use the trades on cash cows than on know injury worries.

  • Waters will take a few games to get back to solid form so might worth an early upgrade/sideways trade

  • I would get him but injuries worry me, but with 2 trades may get him them get rid of him if he gets badly injured

  • Had to consider him given his bye, but I refuse to pick players if they don’t play NAB cup.

  • I can’t believe you’d put Beau Waters in the same paragraph as Glen Archer.. Beau Waters action figures are harder than that pansy.

    The man is nails. His injuries are a result of him putting his body on the line for our DreamTeams (and maybe for West Coast too). Turning your back on him for his injuries is as unaustralian as buying Sushi for a digger.

    Vote Beau for PM.

  • In the video that three effort string against port adelaide, resulting in the embley goal, is as good as football as you will ever see.

  • His injuries are always a worry. But even when he’s fully fit you still have to worry about him taking out a player and being suspended. Or having those dreaded ‘carry over points’ added to his total. Risky player to have but with increased trades why not take a chance on these guys?

  • Guy can score big on any given day. I believe when it comes to a Sunday WCE game and your opponent has him and you don’t, you might have a restless time.Mainly because this guy can not only intercept mark the ball but can also get free for easy plus 6’s when WCE want to slow the tempo down.

    • I definately had a few of them last year.

    • Also helps when he decides to sneak forward for a goal, like that left foot beau-ty from 50 on the boundary last year. Brilliant to watch!

      • Has anyone looked at a best 22 for West Coast this year? If you did, I reckon the best 22 on paper looks the goods to really challenge anyone for a flag this year. Strength everywhere, with Lecras and Kennedy to return. I reckon there could potentially be some DT gold in this team with Round 12 byes too.

        • Definately looked at West Coast best 22 and don’t envy their match committee at all. If they can get the team injury free then the depth to the squad is incredible. Helped by the recruitment of four established players at the end of last year, West Coast is a serious 2013 contender!

  • I hated seeing my opponents have him last year… Until he got injured.

    Was on my radar for this year, but like Grimes, injury scares me off. Delayed start means a no.. But he may come into contention later in the year.

  • Picking him, taking a massive risk on him this year. If he gets injured, he’ll be GAWN. As simple as that.

  • Loved him last year but interupted pre-season means a no for me.
    I now have to deal with Brian Lake (The pi$$head) who I was banking on to be so desperate for a premiership that he wouldn’t put a foot wrong!

  • The smother on Brett Peak is fucking Gold!!
    Beau is THE man. Any real footy fan has to respect him. Without a doubt, the next Eagles captain

  • Nice work as always tbetta. Looked into what effect captaincy may have on his scores as you mentioned. The best indicator was the 2010 season when Glass was injured and didn’t play from rnd 8 onwards. Waters took over and averaged 91.5 (high 155 vs Geelong) from the remaining games that season in what was a struggling side to say the least. I’d say the captaincy sits well with him if he does get it.

    • I hope so. My concern is that he’ll get so into it that he puts his body on the line even more recklessly (if that’s even possible) to inspire his teammates and make a statement to the opposition. I don’t see his role changing negatively because of it, just his general health!

  • no offence to you whatsoever tbetta, but why is he in the deck if you’re expecting a 6 point slide in his average? I don’t want to consider players universally expected to slip from last year. If they’re not expected to atleast equal their 2012 ave its a waste of space talking about them imo. You’re basically saying “roll up roll up, come get your overpriced injury and suspension prone risky premo, any takers??”

    • You don’t have to agree… I don’t for one. I think Waters will be a top 6-8 defender. The words, predicted averages are those of the author and offer discussion points. It’s not a pre-requisite for the author to want to pick them to write about them.

    • None taken, but three points:

      (1) Last year I picked Dean Cox. He averaged almost 8 points per game less than 2011, but still had the highest average of all rucks in 2012. Add in the fact that almost every ruckman got injured at some point in the season (while Cox suited up for every match), and I think you’ll agree that he was more than worth it despite the slide. Just because they won’t increase their average, doesn’t mean you shouldn’t pick them.

      (2) It’s been said a few times, but it just as useful to know who not to pick as to know who to pick in the Deck of Dream Team. Perhaps even more so.

      (3) He’s in the Deck because a lot of people will consider him after last year and they deserve to see both sides of the great man, because he has such a handu bye over the MBRs, and because he’ll likely end up being a Top 7 Defender by year’s end, at least by average.

      Definitely worth a look if you ask me.

  • Cash league few spots left and already DTTALK readers on board email me Damien at wish2dreamcorp@gmail.com

  • I don’t think he can back it again this year. As for tbetta only a numpty wce supporter would make such a stupid comment about Glenn archer and I don’t even go for north

    • I’m not sure if you realise this, but that was actually a massive compliment to Glenn Archer. Pipe down, mate.