Brendon Goddard – Deck of Dream Team 2013

dec31_goddard

Name: Brendon Goddard
Club: Essendon
Position: Defender/Midfielder
Assistant Coach 2013 Price: $501,300
Bye Round: 13
2012 Average: 97.3
2012 Games Played: 20
Predicted Average: 104

Why should I pick him?

At St. Kilda, Goddard would be a risky option at best. Priced at a hefty 97.3 average, playing a role in which he has become disenchanted with in a rapidly aging side doesn’t inspire much confidence. But for Essendon? It’s a whole other proposition. As long as he’s wearing a red sash in 2013, Goddard will be very difficult to ignore.

Firstly, the promise of midfield time is extremely tempting. Unfortunately, there are no readily available stats for % TOG spent in each zone, but it’s common knowledge that he spent much of 2012 off half-back, usually closely followed by the opposition’s best defensive forward. With the extremely damaging Watson, tireless Stanton and deadly efficient Heppell all very tag-able options, suddenly Goddard sees much more breathing space and time spent near the pill; all of which means more DT points for us.

Secondly, Essendon are on the way up. Their incredible start to the season in 2012, where they stood at 8 wins and 1 loss flipping into June, should be much more indicative of the Bombers’ 2013 fortunes than their injury-riddled end to last season. If you don’t think that will affect his scoring, then think again; In 2009 and 2010, St, Kilda won 20 and 15 games respectively – these are Goddard’s only seasons where he has averaged 100 or more (103.7 and 113.4). In contrast, St. Kilda has only won 12 games in each of the last two seasons, so it should have come as no surprise that Goddard averaged much less than he has shown he is capable of, just 96 points per game in that span. Basically, more wins has the flow-on effect for more points to Goddard, and I’ll eat my hat if Essendon don’t sit above the Saints on the ladder come finals time.

Lastly, the dependability factor seals it for me. Goddard is DT royalty for good reason, averaging above 80 every season since 2006, and north of 95 in each of the past four years. While his last couple of seasons have been underwhelming (according to the lofty expectations we have set for him), the fact remains; Goddard is still the highest-averaging defender-eligible player this year. He’s reliable, consistent and durable (he’s played at least 20 games in each of the past five seasons), and he’ll flourish at Windy Hill with the lure of a Finals berth a renewed possibility for the veteran.

 

Why shouldn’t I pick him?

As I mentioned earlier, he’s the highest-averaging defender eligible player this season, which naturally attracts the highest price-tag. Maybe you’d prefer to save $60k for teammate and fellow DPP Dyson Heppell, or a further $20k for the similar Hartlett.

Apart from that, I can’t see any downside in picking someone of Goddard’s calibre now that he’s got a fresh start at an up-and-coming club.

 

Deck of DT Rating.

ACE – ‘Lock’ is possibly the most overused term in the DT vernacular, but even if we’re being technical, Goddard satisfies the definition completely. Along with Gibbs, Goddard will be a no-brainer selection for my side, a set-and-forget from mere seconds after the Team Picker went live. Ultimately, I probably still would have taken him as a Saint, but now that he’s lost the white from his Guernsey, he boasts what few players priced at $500k still have – great value.

Predicted Stats:

goddard stats

 

Bomber interview with Goddard at altitude training camp – particularly interesting words @6.00 min mark regarding midfield time.

 

 

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25 Comments

  • Excellent analysis Tbetta. I think you are spot on with his increased output at a new and thriving club. A lock for me.

    • Hey great ruck article by the way Peter – full of indepth analysis and witty repertoire!

  • Good work Tbetta, a damn fine review. Set and forget for me, have got his mate Heppell in also at this stage who I’m hoping will produce a top 3rd year. All the best for the New Year to you and the boys! Cheers

  • Brilliant TBetta!
    Definitely in my squad from the start.
    By the way I’m enjoying the blog as well – keep up the good work.

  • Great monks think alike Tbetta, lock for me based on more midfield time, renewed enthusiasm and club on the up.

    I have Heppell (3rd year breakout with more mid time too) in my mids at the moment (and Colquhuon) to give flexibility with BJ & Gibbs.

  • *minds

  • Yep, his upside makes him a starter.

    Be interesting to see his flow-on effect on Heppell & Stanton.

  • What sauce would you like with your hat?

    • Haha, I thought similar. I reckon Bombers will get up over the Saints on the ladder too, but it will be close.

      • Well, yep. They didn’t beat anyone of note in those first 8 wins (other than West Coast at Docklands)and when the wheels came off, it was spectacular. In contrast to what tbetta is saying about “wins”, keep in mind the Saints had the 4th best offence last year and lost 5 games by less than a couple of kicks.

        Based on that, I reckon tbetta can get out the cutlery.

        Also, with regards to Goddard – let’s hope he decides that he wants to play and everything is just right for him to do so. Personally, I’m leaning a little bit more towards Heppell, as I think Goddard will still get the tag.

        • Saints supporter?

          Speaking of ‘less than a couple of kicks’, bear in mind that Essendon only lost 3 games by Round 14, all of which were by a goal or less – so spare me St. Kilda’s hard luck story. The Bombers were definitely on the right track before injuries simply decimated their side.

          It’s just my opinion obviously, but I support neither side so I’m pretty confident I’m without bias. Honestly, I can’t see where the Saints improvement can possibly come from, and the potential of their few developing youngsters will be outweighed by the continued decline of the ageing nucleus anyway.

          Note that, while it means next to nothing, Sportingbet seems to agree with me – so I don’t think I was too hasty in my predictions. Cheers for the feedback – I should probably have clarified my assumptions before expressing them so casually…

          • Yep – and no problems with being written off, this early. Just making an observation about your comment regarding the Bombers sitting higher on the ladder than the Saints next year, based on their “incredible” start to 2012? To me, they didn’t really play all that well, but managed to get the points in a few close games and then down the stretch, lost a few close ones as well, from round 10 onwards.

            And just pointing out that the Saints had the 4th best scoring offense in 2012, which whilst it resulted in “only” 12 wins and 10 losses, could have easily been perhaps 14 or 15 wins, with just a little bit of luck.

            I’m not all that convinced at the moment that the Windy Hill move will have a positive impact on Goddards scoring potential, given the above. Like you stated, Heppell is a bit cheaper and to me, I think Goddard would rate the tag more than Heppell.

            I know people like to talk up the Bombers and some of the more “unfashionable” sides are usually disrespected. I just don’t think Essendon are travelling all that well – just my opinion. Not sure the red sash is a “definite” Winning move for Goddard. Only time will tell (and the NAB Cup, maybe).

            Don’t get me wrong either – he’s still on my radar. Just not the dead-set lock he used to be. ‘d like to see how he’s going to be played, first.

        • Disagree with you completely Arthur.

          I’m with Tbett’s on this one. It is of no small co-incidence that Essendon’s losing streak co-incided with an horrific and sudden line of injuries to important players.

          No team in the AFL, including the Hawthorn’s and the Sydney’s, can play well with 12-15 players missing.

          Also, who cares if St.Kilda’s offense was 4th in the league… it just tells me that their defense was abysmal.

          Tom Lee isn’t going to resurrect your club my friend… and you’re best player by a country mile has left.

          Tbetta is well within his rights to suggest that Goddard has moved from a club on its way down, to a club on its way up.

          • Yep – the 8th best defence. Conceded 200 points less than Essendon and scored 250 points more. Based on the AFL’s concept of equalising the draw, you would have to say St. Kilda had a tougher draw than Essendon – certainly reflected by the soft start that got Essendon off to a flyer.

            But hey, you keep on kidding yourself – no problem for me.

            Good luck to BJ – just beware that he has a tendancy to sulk if things aren’t going his way and we’re more than happy that he’s moved on.

          • PS: Every club has injuries. Perhaps the Bombers should have sucked it up and got to the scratchie at Wangarratta, rather than stay home. Perhpas that extra practice game might have given them a little extra conditioning for the regular season.

          • I disagree on the injuries comment. West Coast could. Deeper than a Celine Dion ballad.

  • Thanks tbetta, Gods is locked and loaded in my back line for 2013.

    I’m not alone I am sure in saying that Deck of DT this pre-season is absolutely stellar reading so far. Bloody brilliant. Thanks to all involved.

  • Great to see an ace given out to a player due to how outstanding he will be for his position. Gibbs and Rocky deserved similar treatment. Nice work, always fun yet educational (not often do you hear that) reading a tbetta article.

  • Lock, lock, lock tbetta! Even in a shit year he is still the best defender! No brainier. Tick and move on!!! Next……

  • Lockity lock lock.

  • Nice one Tbetta , Godhard all of a sudden

  • Besides Gibbs and maybe Scotland, I can’t see another defender averaging higher this season. I always try to out-smart myself and not pick Goddard early on thinking ‘he’ll come down in price and I’ll snap him up’. Never works. Not doing it. Him and Gibbs are the first two picked for me this year.

    • I would be shocked if Scotland averaged more than Goddard. Unless Mick the wizard waves his wand and gives the Scotsman a new role which makes his average skyrocket. Given his Bartel-like steady decline from 2011 to 2012, I reckon that role would almost have to be permanent midfield, which I don’t see happening and even still he would probably average less. Goddard should go anywhere from the predicted average to 110. Scotland is the chief upgrade target for me, followed by Waters, Birchall etc. All guys who I don’t see improving their averages.

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    Ran it last year and it went well :)

    Cheers
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  • I have Gods in my team, but hes a player I want to observe during preseason games. He doesnt have to go well, but you should get an idea of where Essendon will play him. Always dangerous to choose a player who has moved to a new team off the bat, it might take him a few games to gel, in which case he might be a good early upgrade option.