The Numbers – Grand Final Week

With next week signalling the end of AFL Dream Team for 2012 I thought I’d bring forward the last log for the year and make it a jam packed version that’s good for two weeks’ worth. I want to take a trip down memory lane and look through all of our WotW nominee’s before crowning the inaugural Whore of the Year for 2012. We’ll look at the heroes and villains and where things went right or wrong from a numbers point of view.

Did you make the Grand Final this week? Or is the year over for now and are you looking forwards to Season 2013 already?

With a huge amount of things to get through, let’s get going with the final Numbers of 2012…

2 – Goals that separate the top 3 players vying for the Coleman medal in 2012. With JVoldt only a goal behind current leader Matthew Pavlich and Tomahawk one back again; it’ll be a tense final round whereby any player could win. Whilst unlikely that Buddy or Petrie can win it from 5 back, a massive bag from either (Buddy v Eagles & Petrie v GWS) could put them right up there. With Jumping Jack playing Port and Tomahawk playing Sydney, the only question remaining is: will Pavlich play and wrap it up against Melbourne? If he plays – it’s his. If not, look for Jack to edge ahead and win his 2^nd Coleman in 3 years.

5 – If you’ll recall back to my first ever Numbers article back in February, this is the % chance I gave Jack Grimes of actually playing a full season without injury. With 2012 being a poor year overall for defenders, Grimes was well worth the risk in hindsight. No. 3 in the overall defenders for the year, 20 games played and an average of 91.25 – this is one of those decisions I’d wished I’d stuck with. He was roughly $80k cheaper than Broughton at the start of the year too – bloody hell.

7 – Number of retirements declared this year. It’s only fair to pay homage to several AFL players who’ve graced the field and given their all for years upon years. The likes of Chris Tarrant and Brad Green are likely to get most of the attention come Grand Final Day, however players like Lindsay Gilbee and Ryan Hargrave have had 200 game careers for the Bulldogs. Unfortunately though, things don’t always go to plan – as is the way for injury-prone players Cameron Bruce and Kelvin Moore; as well as Tigers’ journeyman Brad Miller. Best of luck to all 7 blokes as well as anymore who hang up the boots at the end of 2012 (expect a few more from Geelong FC, be certain of that).

19 – This year has seen arguably more injuries than ever before. Clubs like Freo and Essendon have battled hard with long lists, while the likes of Carlton and Collingwood have been without several stars for considerable periods of time. West Coast at times have been without their entire first-choice forward line, with most clubs being affected severely at some stage. But the biggest number I’ve seen is this – two clubs both currently have 19 players on their injury list. The Suns and Port both currently share that title. Speaking of the Suns – with only 30 available players to pick from last week, their big win over Carlton is even more impressive, and one that the players will savour for some time.

52 – Premiership points that it took in Season 2012 to make the finals. With the top 8 now decided, the only thing left to figure is who plays who in the first week of September. With a few tasty clashes a possibility, here’s hoping the ladder ends up as many have predicted: Hawks to play the Pies’ in Final 1; Adelaide to host Sydney in the 2^nd; West Coast and Freo to play off in a do-or-die final in WA; and the Scott Brothers to face off with Geelong and North in the other elimination final. Tasty indeed.

54 – With all of the talk earlier this year about the West Coast Ducks Eagles, I give you the highest total of Frees For out of the whole competition. Personally, I thought it’d be Joel Selwood (who’s equal 4^th with 49) but surprisingly it’s a ruckman who tops the list – Mr. Dean Cox is currently sitting on an average of 2.6 FF per game, with Andrew Swallow, Luke Shuey and Trent Cotchin rounding out the top 5. Surely Coxy can’t duck low enough to get high contact frees, so maybe it’s just a case of the ump’s loving Cox…

95.28 – Average points scored over 18 games in his debut year by should-be NAB Rising Star favourite Toby Greene. But for a suspension, he’d be a sure-thing for the award. Consistently racking up 30+ disposals and smashing out 7 tonnes, he has to be the one rookie I’ll forever regret not getting as he’s been astounding fair well all year. If there was ever a time to bend the rules with the Rising Star, it’s now – this kid has been the best by a country mile in 2012.

121 – Special mention here to Sydney veteran Ryan O’Keefe. Overlooked in previous years for his higher scoring compatriot Adam Goodes, ROK has taken his game to another level in 2012. He will finish the year with an average just shy of 100 whilst he has finished the year like a steam train with 121 from his last 7. With Goodes’ looking to spend more time up forward in his final years, ROK will be very much on my radar if he’s a DPP in 2013 yet again.

684 – Whilst he may not get the glory or the plaudits (due partly perhaps to his sometimes frustrating inability to hit the side of a barn), Matthew Boyd has been as solid as ever this year. With this number he tops the overall disposal count, as well as the overall DT points scored with 2410 (as of R22). Another year with a per game average in the 115 range is ‘just another year’ for the Bulldogs leader. We all love the Dane Swan’s and Garry Ablett’s but every team needs one of these guys – and in 2013 he’ll be at the top of my list as a proven premium.

347, 600 – The biggest improver tag for 2012 (at this stage) goes to North mature ager Sam Gibson. After only debuting mid-season, he’s now played 11 games for an average of 87. He’s risen almost $350k and given us invaluable cover in the midfield in the absence of the likes of Pendlebury, Swan and Stanton. With GWS next week I can see another big score on the horizon so don’t be so quick to place him on the bench.

Heroes and Villains

Heroes

Brett Deledio has done what many can only aspire to do – exceed preseason expectations. Touted to spend more time in the middle in 2012, his average has gone through the roof – jumping over 20 points per game all the while not missing a single match. Zero chance of being a DPP defender in 2013, enjoy him in your backline for the last time as he’ll be a pure midfielder for the first time in a long time from next season. Season Average – 112, No. 100+ scores – 17.

Jobe Watson is another who has never quite broken the hundred average. He’s been around the mark for some time but 2012 saw him truly break out into the elite category, not missing a game and bumping his average up almost 13 points per game. Like Lids, he’s scored 17 x tonnes and has been one of the best premiums around – Watson has finally lived up to his lofty expectations and become one of the competition’s elite.

Trent Cotchin has been somewhat of a surprise packet in 2012. Whilst many knew he’d be a star – few thought he could create what he has this season after only 4 seasons previously in the AFL. His average has risen 17 points per game since 2011 and like the two above – he hasn’t missed a match. With another big score on the cards against Port this weekend, he may nudge out Dayne Beams to make the top 5 top scorers for 2012 overall. Outstanding.

A few more heroes in DT land for 2012 – Dayne ‘Mini-Swan’ Beams, Patrick ‘proved my punters wrong’ Dangerfield and Steele ‘step-up’ Sidebottom. Along with Matthew ‘Mr. Consistent’ Boyd, Jack ‘finally played a whole season’ Grimes and Ivan ‘it’s pronounced ee-van’ Maric.

Villains

Without question the biggest disappointment of 2012 would have to be the out of sorts (yet still somehow in demand) Travis Cloke. Dropping almost $200k, 9 x scores below 60 and a paltry 71 season average – he has had a season to forget in all senses of the term. On a brighter note – he’ll be nice and cheap for when he bounces back next year.

Adam Goodes has been a solidly performing premium since our GWS rookies were suckling on their mothers’ teats. But due largely to a 6 week injury and more time spent in the forward line, we’ve seen his output drop significantly and he should finish the year with an avg around what is currently 81.80. Sadly, this is the last year Goodesy will grace my field in DT.

Tom Rockliff was out to continue his meteoric rise building on his avg of 112 from 2011. Instead, he has struggled at times to retain an even decent average – now barely being able to be classed as premium. After continuous let downs and countless sub-100 (nay 80) scores, he currently rests on a 95.9 average and has been one of the biggest let downs of the year.

Other also-rans of 2012 included Greg (Let me let you down) Broughton, Bryce (‘midfielder’) Gibbs and Brent (Two-Face) Stanton for their inconsistent, at times confusing seasons when all were popular preseason picks. I suppose recently retired Ryan Hargrave deserves a mention here as well… or maybe he doesn’t – such has been this disappointment of a final year for him.

Worst Trade of the Year

With so much confusion surrounding team selection and injury reports this season, even a simple upgrade has been perilous in 2012. I’ve heard endless stories of coaches trading in premiums for them only to be late withdrawals; or trading out a player (Scotland, Waters I’m looking at you guys) upon receiving a long term injury report only to see them named the following week. Many (myself included) have made cardinal sins with trades such as ‘never trade a premium’ and ‘don’t sideways trade’. I even brought in a mid-pricer (sideways) for an underperforming premium at one stage. No doubt these things will be discussed considerably in the preseason – but I’m interested to know: What is the worst trade coaches have made this year? Let us know in the comments.

The Benchmark

It’s been a long, challenging year and arguably the hardest on record. With injuries, inconsistency MBRs and constant subbage, it has been more difficult than ever to pick the right premiums, mid-pricers and rookies (let alone trade up targets) in 2012. But one team has negotiated the season above all; and should they hold on this week – will become the owner of a brand new FJ Cruiser. With a 69 point lead on the 2^nd ranked team, Skinny Boys coach Dave is one round away from eternal greatness. He has all the right premiums, chose the right rookies to start, hold and downgrade; and has a team full of the best of the best. In fact, with the exception of Cotchin for Murphy, I can’t think of any players in his team I’d want to trade for another. Even his bench cover is brilliant – this guy bloody deserves the FJ. If you’re out there and reading this Dave – Congrats and good luck for this week!

Whore of the Year

Whoring is a lot of like fantasy football. In order to be the best, you have to throw dignity and pride out the window; you must be prepared to get down and dirty – going places no one else will go; and to get the job done with gritted teeth and a smile on your face. 2012 has given us some truly massive individual feats. With huge disposal tallies, big bags of goals and tackle counts that would give the blokes in league a decent run. Before launching into the top 3 Fantasy whores of this season, let’s have a look at all of those who put forward their name with a great individual performance:

Round	Player	Score	Round	Player	Score	Round	Player	Score
1	B. Stanton	153	7	M. Boyd	162	15	D. Cox	148
2	G. Ablett	143	8	B. Deledio	160	16	D. Beams	137
3	S. Selwood	150	9	S. Johnson	148	17	D. Swan	165
4	T. Rockliff	143	10	L. Franklin	204	18	A. Swallow	160
5	D. Swan	171	MBR’s	D. Beams	136	19	H. Bennell	156
6	B. Stanton	193	14	A. Swallow	144	21	M. Murphy	163

Gary Ablett Jnr and Brent Stanton fired early in the year, before being surpassed by popular preseason picks Brett Deledio and Dayne Beams. Dane Swan has been prolific all year, whilst Andrew Swallow has had some huge weeks. Coxy, Boyd and Johnson have been solid yet again – plus we saw the highest individual DT score record broken – twice in 5 weeks! But for a couple more big scores, I’d have to give Buddy 3rd place – however this guy has been ultra-consistent all year and a ‘defender’ no less. Brett Deledio take a bow. With 3 x 140+ scores in 2012 and an average just shy of 112, he has his best year yet. I fully expect him to build on this next year as he tries to lift the Tigers into the top 8. Second has to go to young gun Dayne Beams, with 2 x entries into the WotW table and a season average of 116.50. With 8 scores of 129 or higher, he has taken a leaf from his namesake in the ways of DT whoring.

Then there was one. Whilst it may come as a huge surprise to some people (who may’ve been hiding under a rock and know nothing of DT) the fantasy pig Dane Swan has been everywhere this year. Despite missing the past two games through a club-imposed suspension, his numbers have been his best yet. An average of 130, 8 scores above that mark and 4 of those at 159 or higher (with a top of 171) – he has to go down as the best DT player of all time. With only 1 score below 100 (95 I might add) he has been as reliable as he has been high scoring and if not for a couple more games on the pitch, he’d likely add another Brownlow medal to his pool room. From a one-eyed Blues supporter and AFL Dream Team tragic, I thank you Dane – and Congratulations.

The Round Up                                                                                     

Highlights – It’s been a big year with a lot of twists and turns. We’ve seen one of the closest AFL seasons in memory and a lot of disappointments to go with it. My hat goes off to Beams, Sidey, Danger and Lids, who are my personal picks for the year and have been staples in my 22 every week. For all the bad luck I’ve been drawn I’m thankful for them churning out some great scores to keep me from spinning completely out of control.

Lowlights – There’s so many I can’t count to be honest. I’d say 60% of my trades were terrible, and some of my initial picks defy belief looking back. My beloved Blues have spun out of the race for the 8, suffered arguably their most embarrassing loss in their history over the weekend and may well lose their coach by the end of 2012. This season hasn’t given me a lot of good memories but I’m hopeful that 2013 will be one of improvement, good fortune and greatness as a way of equalling up the scales.

Team McRath – I’ve had an ordinary year. I’ve broken several basic DT rules, in the process nearly losing my sanity. I evened out with a 10,000 odd ranking and my tail between my legs. Somehow I’ve managed to scrape into 2 Grand Finals though, so a win or two there would certainly make me feel better about myself going into 2013. With a lot of lessons learnt from 2012, I vow to be back in 2013 with a ruthless approach and a persistent determination to be the best. Player bias and gut feel will go out the window as I replace it with true statistics and proven results.

In closing, I’d just like to give a huge thanks to everyone who’s read The Numbers this year and stuck with me from the start. For any punters out there keen to have a go at writing an article I say go ahead – I was merely a reader last year and am glad I’ve jumped on board in 2012. I’ve had an awesome time gracing your screens on a Tuesday morning and look forward to doing the same in 2013.

Also, a huge shout out to Warnie (and Roy & Vin) who gave us this opportunity and have been so openly accepting of our rambling and at-times biased commentary of AFL Dream Team. I’m looking forward to getting involved with the Deck of DT and jumping into the preseason – so keep an eye on the site for some post-season analysis and offseason ramblings.

If you’re on Twitter, hit me up @McRathDT