Good Trade, Bad Trade: Round 20

It’s the time of year that 99.9% of us (realistically) have been waiting for all year.It’s finals time! Now begins a month where bragging rights between mates, spouse rivalry, family member supremacy and dodgy cash leagues start to come to the fore. The best thing is,  there is a whole summer to let people know how they were bundled out in the first round because they went Dean Cox as a ‘smoky’ captain choice! So have you got everyone playing? Is it time to pull the trade trigger and strengthen your team as you anticipated? lets see what options are out there this week

Defenders

This week, for once,  dodgy defenders are NOT causing us massive headaches and money loss in laptop repairs (yet). While there are 5 defenders (Broughton, Ellis, Hargrave,Clarke and Lake) in the most traded out players this week, none of them injured themselves this week, or did anything stupid. All these guys are likely bench fodder in teams and are being traded for cash generation and upgrading (apart from Lake, he’s just a spud). One defender is currently the second most traded in player this week…..

Beau ‘Jangles’ Waters ($436,100, b/e 79)

The ‘Chuck Norris’ of the west. Turns 5 week injuries into 2 weeks and gives Kurt Tippett concussion for 3 weeks with his own head. This man is a machine. Is actually quite expensive for a defender (4th most expensive), but is worth every cent. Playing Geelong this week where he has averaged 128 in his last 3 against them (not including a 140 in last years prelim) and is likely to go the same if he stays loose in defence. If you are after a smoky captain choice this week, I would definitely consider Waters.

 

 Alex Browne ($104,200, b/e – 54)

This boy is on the bubble and really cheap if you need cash. Was named in the best for the bombers last week vs the crows (thanks Jeppa). Should likely go round again, especially with the bomber virus that seems to be spreading like wildfire throughout the club – the hamstring strain. I wonder if ‘The Weapon’ will take credit for this too?

 

Midfielders

Dane Swan ($617,900)

Swanny has pretty much been the king of DT for 2012, running round freely collecting +6s and sausage rolls like they’re going out of fashion.  Then, at the most crucial time of the season, ‘the black swan’ rears his ugly head and gives the 90,000 DT coaches the big finger with a Sunday session full of ‘water’ and 2 weeks off. The big question this week is whether to trade or not. Swan is currently the most traded out player this week, but the stats suggest he has been traded by about 2000ish people, which suggests a lot of people are holding. The good news is if you are in the top 4 and win, the second week will be moot. On the other hand, if you do trade Swan, you make at least $40k out of the trade (if you trade to Ablett, a lot more to others). So far,  Swan has been traded to all the vanilla options (Ablett, Watson, Beams, Pendlebury, Boyd) which @tomcraigie covered yesterday. I want to look at other options to add a point of difference to your team.

Andrew Swallow ($489,200, b/e 78) ‘Spitz’ can go big with Swan like scores (160 2 weeks ago) and loves picking on weaker teams (160 v Melbourne and 138 vs Port) and has Collingwood in week 2 and GWS in the grand final week.

Lenny Hayes ($436,700, b/e 57) Lenny plays Melbourne and GWS in the finals and decided to clock his biggest score for the season (130) 2 weeks ago. Could be start of a late season run?

Sam Mitchell (476,400, b/e 126) went under 100 for the first time in 7 weeks last week, so is likely to bounce back. The hawks are at Aurora against a degenerated Port.  Plays GC and WCE in the finals too so should score big there. Sydney in the prelim week is a worry,  as it is at the SCG.

Rucks

News out yesterday was that big Roo Hamish McIntosh will be out for the rest of the season after opting to take LARS surgery on his knee. While we wish the big man a speedy recovery and hope to see him back in 2013 fit and raring to go, it’s time to jump on (pun intended) his fellow roo Todd Goldstein ($383,100 b/e 63). Goldstein has averaged 95 in his last 3 rounds and has been super durable all season. Another really good ruck option at the moment is Saint Ben McEvoy ($418,500 b/e 65). McEvoy has been going pretty well in the second half of the season, having 3 tons and 2 90’s in the last 6 weeks. last week McEvoy pumped out a 120 against Jolly, showing what we had hoped of him at the beginning of the year. with Koschitzke showing his spud like talents, McEvoy should be the lone ruckman for the saints and hopefully keep up the high scores.

Once again a big ‘screw you’ to Jon Giles

 

Forwards V.2008

Who would of thought at the start of the season that we would be speaking about Matthew Pavlich($485,400, b/e 98) and Ryan O’Keefe ($475,700, b/e 98) as gun forwards and the best options as trade ins to our teams? While both have proven their worth over the years, it was widely acceoted that the mantle had been passed on to other fwd/mids such as Sidebum, Beams and Danger  as the premier forwards of DT. Turns out they are ageing well! Pav has averaged 116 in his last 5, while ROK has averaged 105.  Both in great form and reminding us all of why they were some of the first picked in our teams a few years ago.

The blokes mentioned above as well as Nat Fyfe ($392,500) b/e  68) will be great replacements for Jason Porplyzia($373,700, b/e 126) whose shoulders gave way early on in the match on the weekend. While Adelaide have said he should be ok to suit up this week, a player with an average of 75 shouldn’t be in your first 7 fwds at this time of the year.

Steve Johnson ($402,800 b /e 159) is another popular in this week, due to his new role as a pure midfielder. Stevie J still has that sausage from 2 weeks ago in his average and has another price fall to go, so can wait another week. He also doesn’t score well against the eagles historically.

Well that’s the run for this week. Good luck to all in the finals.

 

Let us know what you are doing with Swan!

65 Comments

  • Thanks JimmyBob.

    Broughton -> Scotland or waters really tossing up between them.

  • Waters or Grimes? Waters has three hard games comig up while Grimes has GWS still to come.

  • Waters or Grimes? Waters has three tough games still to come while Grimes still has GWS.

  • Nice one JimmyBob – just one question, what is a ‘trade’?

  • Hawks play Swans @ SCG, not MCG. Only scored 79 there last year in a game Hawks won by 7 goals.

  • I have been thinking for weeks how to get Swan in so that decision has definitely been made easier.

    What does everyone think the odds are of Lake turning back the clock and scoring a big one. Thinking of Lake to Waters but it would be my luck that Lake smashes it.

    Team currently looks like this and i have 4 trades and 147k in the bank.

    Def: Deledio, Scotland, Goddard, Birchall, Carrazzo, H Shaw, Lake, S Shaw, Darley

    Mid: Ablett, Boyd, Thompson, Pendlebury, Selwood, Barlow, Gibson, Couch

    Ruck: Goldstein, Roughead, Redden, Stephenson

    Fwd: Franklin, Beams, Sidebottom, Dangerfield, Fyfe, Martin, Zorko, Porplyzia, Treloar

    So Lake to Waters and maybe Porps to Johnson and Martin on the bench?

    Or hold the trade and play Martin with Treloar as cover?

    Thoughts everyone?

    • Lake to Waters is a good trade.

      Unless you are desperately trying to squeeze a a couple of extra points you might want to save the ither trades. Players will be rested in the GF, last round of play, and a couple of trades will make or break you.

  • Coping a donut this week with Ward, Swan and Williams all not playing

  • NEED HELP! i have 1 trade left and playing someone with a much stronger team. i have $65 K left and a horrible back line:
    Deledio Scotland Suckling Goddard Ellis Carratz and D.Nicholson (Clark and Darley)
    ANY SUGGESTIONS :D

  • Finally traded in swan last week….

    Traded out Scotland for his one week injury, traded out waters for his two week injury. Traded out gaj for his short stint out but held onto Pendles hoping he’d be back sooner than expected.
    Started with with mcevoy in the ruck and traded him to sandilands for the 6 games they played between them.

    Pretty sure I wrote the book on bad trades this year

    FMDT

  • I was going to go Swan to Delidio…

    and yes, I have managed to survive (just) without Lids in the side!

  • Who would be the best option?
    Grimes, Suckling or Heppell? thanks,

    • Suckling, grimes, heppel in that order. Suckling has had some shockers, but so have the others. His ceiling is much higher however.

      • Grimes, followed by Suckling. Both of these players have cracked the ton 5 times this year. Grimes actually has the higher ceiling (135 v 127) and his floor is also not as bad as Suckling’s (65 v 31).

    • Heppel over Suckling if you want consistency.
      Grimes over both on recent form.

  • Great write up Jimmy.

    Thinking Porps out and in comes either…… S Johnson,H Bennel,P Chapman,Rioli, or WHitecross

    Hmmmmmm :)

  • Round 22, 2007 Melbourne vs. Carlton Kreuzer Cup
    Round 20, 2012 Gold Coast vs. GWS Whitfield Cup

  • Can’t decide on boyd or jobe – so i am going to get both…

  • Martin -> Thompson

    Porps -> Fyfe

    Good trade bad trade?

    Alternatively could get Watson fyfe combo, Or Thompson Stevie J combo.

    • Reckon Thommo will get the Crowley treatment again this week (maybe Danger) so Jobe prob a better option this week (and rest of year with a soft Adelaide draw meaning Thommo may get a rest)

      im going with Johnson for Porp but Fyfe will be very good well.

      I have an elimination final and uncertainty over whether Swan will be traded by my opponent (im gonna hold as have gibson to cover) .

      I have priddis (got at 380k as a mid year pick up that was supposed to be replaced by Pendles until his two week became 6 years) but he has struggled recently. Thinking of trading (using last trade )him to Pav/Okeefe. Okeefe in strong form and should run free against Collingwood midfield.

      peoples thoughts?

      • I picked up Priddis back when he was a bit cheaper, too, but am also considering giving him the boot. Hard to go past Pav for mine. He’ll be doing everything he can to get them into the finals.

  • Spewing Brendan Lee has been promoted, he would be a great pick up next year if he doesn’t play this year :(

  • You missed a good ruck option @ $328k ….. Jon Giles……averaging 120 in his last 2 games and up against a team without there first 2 choice ruckmen – the Suns!

    LOLOLOLOL

  • Branden Lee probably debuting this week. Watch out for him has torn it apart in the VFL.

  • Hi all
    opinions please have trades left and cash but dont know who to trade
    hanley or lake to lids? bench shaw and clarke
    if i get through this week waters next week
    other trade is sloane to boyd

  • waiting for teams……….. feels like time slows down around this time on a thursday….

    whats peoples thoughts on buddy/robbo playing?

  • Guys, there are rumors that Chappy and Kelly are OUT for the cats!

    • Was at the game last week and Chappy definitely grabbed at a hammy in the 3rd quarter. Not sure if they showed it on TV.

    • Rumours….in an hour or so we’ll know for sure…try and sit still in the meantime;)

    • You shut your mouth when you are talking to me!

    • Yeah someone tweeted Chappy and Kelly werent at the airport! on the way to Perth. Fukn marvellous more carnage

  • is it worth trading out robinson if he isnt named tonight??

  • ha ha.. whaddya know no team changes….

  • teams are out… http://www.afl.com.au/teams/tabid/16469/default.aspx

    kelly is out for geelong

    • but no Chappy at the airport looks like a late out tomoz night :(

      • how can you be a late out if you didnt even make the flight over.
        team releases are bullshit.

  • robbo is in… but no buddy

  • alrighty…. stants out means fyfe comes in with 1 trade left

    buddy out… means I play giles or treloar… who should I choose folks?

    • Giles with no recognised ruckman for the GCS for mine. Both have been very consistent of late, flip a coin!

      • Giles or Treloar, am I missing something?

        • He obviously has a DPP link between the forwards and ruck.

          I’d be careful as if this is the case, you most probably have Hale or Roughy.

          Max Bailey is playing at the #1 ruck spot. Even though Hale and roughy are named FF and CHF – i’d be cautious!

  • def: Deledio, Scotland, Suckling, Goddard, H. Shaw, Carrots, Fisher
    mid: Boyd, Ablett, Mitchell, Barlow, Bartel, Murphy
    ruc: Cox, Bellchambers
    fwd: Franklin, Beams, Sidebottom, Danger, Lewis, Martin, Zorko

    Thoughts on team???

    I have 2 trades AND 95,000 in kitty

  • Tempted to use two of last three trades to go:

    Franklin to Stevie

    Lake to Waters

    Saves me playing one of Cloke and Elliott in the forward line, and gives me a backline with MJohnson as the weakest player.

    But only one trade left. And Gibson covering Swan in the middle.

    Have four qualifying finals this week, two I’m particularly keen to win, and one elimination final.

    Trade-saving self tells me that if I can field a reasonable 22 without trading, I shouldn’t. I should back in Gibson, Lake, Cloke and Elliott.

    Trade-burning self tells me that I am already carrying Swan and can’t afford to keep carrying Buddy too, or I’m going to wind up going out in straight sets. And I can have two guns for one (and 2 trades).

    Hold or trade?

  • I have Swan and Buddy, so at least 1 donut this week. Should i trade one out for a premium OR trade Taylor Adams + 17K (total 334K) for a Devon Smith, Brad Green, Burgoyne or mid priced similar player who might score big (I know it’s a risk)??

    Any advice would be welcome as I’m in the elimination final and copping a pasting in the coaches box as I have been dishing it out over the past few weeks!!

  • Having a dilemma regarding who to trade in this week.

    Swan and Greene out means Swanny has to go, leaving me with one more trade, to bolster either backline (Weak) or forwardline (Porps out,Buddy still out). Hesitant to trade but close elimination final looms..

    Current Lineup:

    B: Lids, Goddard, Birch, Heppell, Carrazzo, M.Clarke, Darley (Smedts, Shaw)
    M: Boyd, Ablett, Mitchell, Kennedy, Martin, Swan (Greene, Couch)
    R: Cox, Giles (Redden, Campbell)
    F: Beams, Sidey, Stevie J, Robinson, Zorko, Treloar, Cameron (Buddy, Porps)

    Should I go Swan –> Pendles
    Porps –> Pav or Fyfe

    Or go Swan –>watson. Hayes, A. Swallow
    & upgrade Smedts –> like M. Johnson or H Shaw?

    Any input greatly appreciated, cheers!