The Friday Scramble: Round 18

You could equate this part of the DT season to being a bit like being at an auction whilst the auctioneer is standing up just cr$ping on about how lovely the place is and how you would be mad to miss out blah blah blah… we get it mate, we are here aren’t we!  So too is the DT seasion, we have had weeks now to just take a look around, position ourselves, imagine what parts we would swap and change about the property only to get it perfect in our mind.  Now we sit back and wait for the preamble rubbish to finish before we get to the real stuff the bidding… or in our case, DT Finals.

So based on that rather obscure and fairly loose analogy, I don’t see a lot of scrambling going on at this time of year as we are just sort of treading water until the Finals start as we don’t have enough trades or we are just content with our position and are saving the trades for the finals.

Should I Go Down to Come Up?

One question I was asked when I put the call out this week came from @hawker68 (whose team is doing so well I should be asking him for help!).  The question that he asked and I think many others have been asking is… should I do a single upgrade of an OK player to a great player or should I do a downgrade and then upgrade a lesser player to a great player. 

Now if this were Round 8 and we all still had plenty of trades this is a no brainer.  But at this stage of the season with trades really at a low ebb this can be a season defining decision.

The example that Hawker gave us was:

  • Whitecross to Pendles (obviously using some DPP links)
  • Old Mac to Pendles and A Hall to Couch with Dusty and Whitecross as cover up forward.

Personally in this case if I was to do either it would be to go Whitecross to Pendles.  I think that you would be conserving a trade whilst improving your team. 

With 2 rounds still to go before Finals I think that saving 4 + trades is the best option you can have.  So if you had 6 or more, you could do the double trade, but even then, going into the finals with 5 trades would put you in a fantastic position!

This also answers a query by @mynameisJoel , not sure what his name is though??  Could be Joel??   He asks, with 4 trades left should he do a bit of sideways trading to improve his team or save them for the finals.  For me, if you only have 4 left.  Save them for finals (unless you are struggling to make the 8) as you will certainly need them then to deal with the regular visits from The General.

Travis Cloke

This guy should have signed his contract weeks ago when he was worth something.  However, he has not only killed his real value but also his DT value.  But @dpillar asks… Will he kill it this week or should I jump ship now. 

Personally I think that unless you have a stack of cash and 4+ trades left you are pretty much stuck with him.  Whether or not he will kill it in scoring…. who knows.  I just wouldn’t be trading him in until he strings a couple of awesome games together…  but even then I wouldn’t be confident with him.

Paddy Ryder

@camfell asked me abuot Paddy Ryder.  Should he keep or trade him if you don’t have much cash or trades.  I think you answered your own question mate, if you don’t have much cash or limited trades I think you are pretty stuck to be honest.

I traded the big guy in two weeks before he went down and as soon as I heard 4 weeks I unloaded him again and brought in the Rough!

I’m Bored, Can We Go Home Now?

@RowanPotter asked how do you still be enthused about DT when you have run out of trades?  Well to be honest Rowan, I am not sure.  But I know that the boys at Virtal Sports are thinking up new ways to keep everyone involved each year.

In that position I would just be trying to see what I can get out of my team each and every week and manage it to within an inch of its’ life to try and take down some of the guys that have been saving trades when they know that you are out of them!  Beating a guy that has trades when I have none is always a satisfying feeling.

Things to Remember

  •  Don’t fool yourself into thinking you won’t catch the kids’ sicknesses- They will always get you in the end! 
  • Beware of fools gold – Travis Cloke is very very cheap for a reason… he is no good at the moment!  If he was going to score 110’s he wouldn’t be priced below $300k
  • If your ladder position won’t move… Don’t Trade – Even though you might score an extra 30 – 40 points, if you don’t need them to win your league game then save the trade for later.
  • If you do trade, make sure you look at the run your new player has in DT Finals – You don’t want to pick up a guy that has a great run in the next two weeks then has the 4 toughest teams across the finals.  Similarly beware of loading up on Crows just because they have the Suns in R23.  Remember the Hawks of 2011.

Apologies all for the shorter scramble this week.  As you might have guessed from one of my things to remember, I have been crook for half the week and didn’t have my regular time to prepare.  Thanks also to my Tweeters who came through with things they wanted to discuss.  Sorry I didn’t get to all of you, once again lack of time whilst I have been busy coughing meant I could only look at a few of them.

Good luck this week.  Not long to go now.  Catch me over the weekend @pkd73 and I will give you any bit of info that I have…

73 Comments

  • Nice one again Dunny.

    I have the same forward line problem as everybody – Buddy, Robbo and Steelbum. So tempted to trade Buddy, but as I am locked in the top 4 in my cash league I will hold fast.

  • Haha….i knew it! Used last trades up last week, noe Sidey out, Robbo not back, Buddy still out, no sign of Aaron Hall. On top of leagues, but getting ready to go down DT gurgler. At least it doesn’t matter for next 2 weeks!

  • Sitting tight this week.
    Still climbing rankings. My team is a 2200 ppw side, not bad for one without Pendles or Swan. I had planned to swap JPK for Pendles but with the General riding into town think I will just save the trades.
    4 trades left gunna put the C on Jobe for a safe 120.

    FYI, Gaj was all suited up at St John of God hospital in Geelong yesterday, looking all business. Will it affect his performance? Who knows.

  • Buddy, Sidey, Mitchy, your all on thin ice you effin mofo’s.

  • A bit biased maybe but you’ve got to think of whats still to come form this guy.

    http://www.afl.com.au/news/newsarticle/tabid/208/newsid/142684/default.aspx

    • He will be a lock for years to come as Coxy winds down and he steps up more.
      I still remember watching his raw athletic ability when he played for Swan Districts and thinking if he ever pulls it all together he’ll be the Michael Jordan of ruckmen.

  • Anyone considering putting Redden ahead of Giles?

    • Thought about it but Redden has a high chance of being red vested

    • i dont reckon redden will make the cut when teams are finalised tonight – freo are only playing one ruck (they dropped zac clarke) so port will likely do the same and play one ruck eg lobbe solo

    • There is no gaurantee Redden plays, he is on the extended bench.

      On the weekend they just went with Lobbe so it will depend on if they decide to go back to two rucks or not

      • I was thinking a similar thing until i saw the teams named, Darren jolly is getting rested this week, I think Giles will put up a 80+ score playing against Cameron wood! Please god!!!

  • Great work Dunny! Thanks for the advice especially since we are playing each other this week.
    This weeks selections have thrown a spanner in the works. No Couch and no Sidey. If I went Whitex to Pendles leaves me with a donut.
    So time to rethink. Like you I am crook so I have all day laying in bed to contemplate! Not usually a good thing. Haha.
    Good luck buddy!

  • My friday scramble is more of a scramble not to scramble to allow for ultimate finals scrambling.

    My issue is the great GREG BROUGHTON.

    I only have 4 trades so is he worth 2 trades (down/up) to Beau Waters or Jordan Lewis?

    • I don’t think so mate. If you are locked in the top 8 in your leagues (or at least the ones you care about) then I would hold.

      I think 4 trades left is not enough to do a double trade. You will need them in the finals.

  • Need to do one last cash downgrade to set me up for finals.

    Smedts > Baguley
    OR
    Clay Smith > Miles
    ???

  • Im assuming im not the only one that has had to have a major rethink with Couch not selected?

    I was all set to do Hall to Couch and Broughton to Scotland. Team currently looks like this.

    Def: Deledio, Goddard, Birchall, Carrazzo, H Shaw, Lake, Broughton, S Shaw, Darley

    Mid: Ablett, Boyd, Pendlebury, Thompson, Selwood, Barlow, Treloar, Gibson

    Ruck: Goldstein, Roughead, Redden, Stephenson

    Fwd: Franklin, Beams, Sidebottom, Dangerfield, Robinson, Martin, Zorko, Porplyzia, Hall

    I currently have 7 trades and 20k. I am currently looking at one backline donut and one forward donut.

    I am still thinking of making these trades as it improves my backline, generates some cash and Hall and Couch’s JS would seem fairly similiar so im not losing anything there and 5 trades is a reasonable amount to carry into the last round and finals.

    Thoughts?

    • I think go with the trades you have proposed, with Treloar covering for Sidebum and Porp for Buddy, you only cop one donut.

      Get rid of Broughton at all costs. I traded him out 2 weeks ago as part of a double sideways trade Buddy>StevieJ and Broughton>Scotland. The result? I finished inside the top 250 for the last 2 rounds, including a 10th in round 16.

      But because of my shocking start to the season (I was outside the top 50,000 in round 2) I am only now in the top 4k.

  • What do people think of Anthony Miles?

    • If you have trades and a player like Shiel/Horsley/Smith/Old Mac still in your team, trade one of them out and get him.

  • Good Stuff Dunny.
    Looks at though forward line depth will be key this week…

  • Been thinking about it all week but I still cant get my head around whether to trade Giles to Cox or Maric!! Leaning towards Maric but yeah don’t know! Opinions would be much appreciated!

    • Im stuck on whether to pick up Maric as well. With his recent injury issues I dont want to pick him up only for him to be rested come finals. Cox is a gun, I’d recommend him but only due to Marics injury as he might get rested or further injured.

      Im tossing up whether to get Maric, Jacobs, Mcevoy or Roughie. Suggestions?

      • Hmmm. Ive also heard a couple of rumors Jacobs has also pulled up sore so that could be a worry, Maric would be the best option with a relatively easy run home ruck opponent wise but of course that injury could affect it. From that order id go 1.Maric 2. Jacobs 3. Roughead 4. Mcevoy.

  • My midfield is Swan, Boyd, Watson, Thompson, Mitchell and Jelwood (JMac and Gibson).

    My forwards are Sidebut, Franklin, Pavlich, Danger, Martin, Goodes, Zorko, (Trelaor and Hall)

    I need money, so should I downgrade JMac for Miles or Crouch

    Miles has good JS and better scoring power. But Crouch would give me the DPL?

    • mate its a bit hard to render assistance when you dont include you position on the ladder, trades and cash left

      • 1st on the ladder (The league I really care about) the other 3 I’m in the top 4 (Can’t drop out of the 4)

        I have 8 trades and 26k in the bank.

    • By Crouch I assume you mean Couch? The Melbourne selectors have made the decision easy for you as Couch has been dropped this week. I reckon the downgrade to Miles is a good move.

    • I’d get Baguley. Dyson and/or Myers might come back soon but it gives you double dpp and that could be worth it later. he’s gonna score moderately well when he plays it seems and Miles has only been in favour one week and out of favour most of the year, mostly uninjured.

  • Does anyone think Gumbleton is worth picking up for $165k to replace Hall/Milera on the bench? I know it’s more than a rookie costs but surely he has very good JS. Not sure what his scoring potential is like?

    • I would only consider it if it saves a donut and had a lot of trades left

      • im thinking longer term here. Milera and Hall are my bench and I’ll be going in to finals with no cover on forward line. Not concerned about whether I cover a donut for this week or something, I’m really just looking at depth (whilst still freeing up some money). I had planned to bring in Couch this week but that is no longer a safe trade.

        • very unlikely he will ever score very well especily wih the bombers draw.. if you use a trade might as well bring in someone with better scoring ability even if it cost more. eg iv still got porps on the bench who can score well, been covering franklin and has been pretty good so far.. that saying he would be better than hall/milera

  • Rumours Jacobs has pulled up sore and could miss this week…

    • geez the rucks are never ending carnage! maric better not be a late withdrawal as well ahh

      • The mullet will play and dominate.
        I dont care about Jacobs missing because of DT. As an avid crows supporter its disappointing…

  • What happened to Jmac? Did I miss something?

  • Big dilemma this week, my biggest of the DT season. I’m in a very competitive league and am just clinging onto 8th by percentage. Am playing the team in 10th this weekend, who has managed to piece together quite a strong squad. This is a MUST win game.

    Here’s the rub: with Sidebottom now out, I’m staring down the throat of 3 donuts (2 in FWDs and 1 in DEF). My opponent is faced with only the one donut. But… I only have 3 trades left! That said, I have to negate some of these donuts to have a chance of making the finals.

    As wild as it is, I’m contemplating the following trades:

    Out: Robinson (don’t want to, but can’t cop the donut)
    In: Fyfe (a massive risk, but reports are that he’s been training the house down… also a great POD)

    Out: Franklin (as above, this is the last thing I want to do, but I simply can’t lose this round)
    In: Beams (sweet!)

    Am I nuts? The only other possibility is Robinson to Fyfe, then Hargrave to a MPP defender… less enticing than getting Fyfe and Beams into my squad, and definitely with a lower ceiling.

    Any advice would be greatly appreciated… cheers!

    • gotta do what you gotta do..

    • I agree that you need to do something with your trades this week – no point saving trades for finals if you’re not even in them!

      Is there a way that you can cover the donuts and improve your team at the same time? Sideways trading Franklin to Beams and Robbo to Fyfe doesn’t improve your team at all. Are you able to upgrade a couple of cheaper players instead e.g. downgrade one of your non-playing backs to baguley/docherty/Wrigley (depending who makes the final cut) and then upgrading one of your non-scoring forwards to someone decent?

      • Thanks for the response, Buzzy Bee.

        I’ve looked at what you’re suggesting, but the main problem is that I have eff-all cash in the bank. The problem is that I need points for this weekend, and bringing a Baguley in won’t achieve that. I agree that I am sideways trading here, and it won’t make my team better on the whole (especially if Buddy & Robbo both come back next week)… BUT, it will make my team better for THIS weekend.

        It sucks, as I’m usually a staunch advocate of saving trades and avoiding sideways… but as djblurr succinctly put it, I gotta do what I gotta do.

    • Obviously you don’t want to lose this week so it would seem trades are a necessary evil. In your shoes I would trade Robbo before Franklin but not sure about Fyfe…what about Jordan Lewis? He is up and about and a consistent 90+ scorer and the Hawks are going from strength to strength.

      • Thanks for the advice, and nice avatar too… the best ever Eagle, imo.

        I did look hard at Jordan Lewis, and you are right in that his form is excellent at the moment. He was on the shortlist, along with Danny Stanley of GC, who is also massively underrated. I just couldn’t go past Avatar though. They say he’s been training really well, and has kept his cardio in match condition… but it is still a risk, and one that I will not be able to reverse due to my lack of trades.

        Decisions, decisions…

        • played with a few of the fellas from that generation but Matera was on another level…Nothing wrong with going Fyfe…just got to weigh up everything, make a decision and then pull the trigger…or not! Good luck whichever way you go…

          • Thanks WM.

            Must have been a thrill playing on blokes of that calibre.
            I was ‘fortunate’ enough to play on Glen Jakovich one day in high school footy.
            He kicked 3 from CHB and utterly caned me.

            I rolled the dice, by the way… nothing ventured, nothing gained. Viva Fyfe!

  • Hey guys,
    In my main league I’m Coming 5th but its close from 3rd to 7th. I should get in the top 8 but a top 4 spot would be awesome. I have 3 trades left and this is my team

    Goddard, Scotland, carrazzo, hargrave, waters, delidio, (shaw, broughton)
    Pendles, swan, ablett, Boyd, Mitchell, selwood (Gibson, couch)
    Kruezer, Giles (redden, cAmpbell)
    Dangerfield, Stevie j, Chappy, Martin, zorko, patton, robinson (buddy, sidebottom)

    I’ve only got 25k in the bank and I’m not Going to go close to winning overall do should i do a
    Downgrade this week to get a rookie in Or leave them?

    • Hold your trades mate (although if Hargrave doesn’t make the final cut today then a downgrade to Baguley would look mighty tempting!).

    • Keep them, you’ll find them more important in DT finals than now.

  • What are people’s thoughts on goodes to marc murphy?

    he should average about 25 more points a game as well as the fact that carlton only vs 1 team in the top 8 during finals and sydney only vs 1 team in the bottom 8 during finals and these are both in the second week which I should hopefully be able to avoid

    I only have 4 trades left and am definitely in the top 4 for my league but I just need a little more percentage to crack number 1 which should mean an easy game on number 4 for the first week of finals compared to a maybe with 2v3

    • Goodes has Gold Coast this week, and with Judd out Murphy will be the no.1 tagged player. I don’t think it is worth using a trade

    • silly trade. goodes will come good.

    • Stay with Goodes. He tends to end seasons well. I also read (uncorroborated) that Murphy’s shoulder is still causing him trouble, Judd back before DT finals etc.

      The biggest risk with Goodes is that he might be rested.

  • DEF: Delidio, Goddard, Suckling, Birchell, Conca, Heppell, Carrazzo (sam shaw, Spurr)

    MID: Swan, Ablett, Stanton, Boyd, Thompson, Beams, (Gibson, Sexton)

    RUCK: Cox, Giles, (Redden, Campbell)

    FWD: Franklin, Sidebottom, Robinson, Dangerfield, Martin, Cloke, Zorko, (Pfierrier, Black)

    4 trades left with $93,100 in the bank

    I was thinking of maybe trading giles out and bringing in Goldstein or Bellchambers…?
    Not sure if it would be a great move or not but with 4 trades left i probs should hold and dont trade..

    with my ranking being 17,795 leagues are my focus..in my 5 leagues im sitting: 4th, 7th, 6th, 3rd and 3rd

    Thoughts on this??

    • maybe hold off on the giles trade until the 1st final just to make sure theres no surprises in the next 2 weeks that u need to attend to.

  • Hi guys. What are people’s thoughts on….
    Barlow to Murphy? Make 55k in the process

    At present I have 4 trades and I’m holding Zaha (as I have zorko as F7 and porps F8 and use cash for final upgrades at finals time) and Ryder.

    Leaning toward holding for now as I won’t drop from the top 2 but then I worry limited downgrade options of players on the bubble.

    Thoughts appreciated. Cheers.

    • Hey all,

      I have 7 trades left and sitting with what I consider a completed team. 4th in cash league.

      The only weak links in my best 22 are Hargrave (D7), Priddis (M6) (not really a weak link), kruzer (R2) and Porplyzia (F7)

      Pretty happy with Porps considering last 3 games. Hargrave isnt really an issue considering all possible replacements will only score maybe 10 points more and i have adequate cover already. Priddis is fine until finals. Kruzer is only real concern.

      Should I:

      A) make 2 downgrades before finals (thinking to baguley and someone else) so I have a heap of cash for big finals upgrades

      B) hold tight with 7 trades until finals

      C) continue upgrading my team (ie kruzer or hargrave) by doing double trades and going into finals with either 5 or 3 trades?

      Thanks very much

      • I would go A personally. I only chose this option over C as players have been dropping like flys and there is always the chance the person you upgrade to pre finals could get injured. You would get a better lay of the land if you leave it a few weeks to judge injuries, form and potential restings. This is all based on the assumption that you will maintain top 4 position regardless of your trading situation.

      • I favour A too in fact I’m trying something similar – enter finals al P2 or 3 with $480K and 4 trades.

        I think injuries and “restings” are inevitable during AFL rounds 20-23 I can keep up with sideways or upgrade trades as they happen. If I need more than 4 trades then surely my opponents will be hammered at least a bit too.

        If I guessed wrong then I will lose.

      • Have a good look into how well Marc Murphy is holding up from his shoulder injury. This afternoon, I read (herald-sun I think) that he has been hampered and is playing sore. I haven’t seen it anywhere else but have a good search before you commit to the change.

    • How much cash u got currently?

      • Only 31k. Approaching 90k if I go Barlow to Murphy.

        • I dont really think Murphy will get that many more points than barlow from now till the end of season. If you’re desperate for cash then maybe look to downgrade to a rookie.

          I wouldnt be too worried about a lack of downgrade options during finals. If there comes a point during the finals where u need the cash you can always downgrade to someone whose not playing. A full bench cover isn’t really important in finals because our saved trades should get us out of any mess that we might find ourselves in.

  • With 3 trades left and Giles my only incomplete player, should I go smedts to baguley for cash then Giles to cox all this week but with only 1’trade for the rest of the year? My current ruckman is Goldstein. Should I do it this week or just hold my trades or Maybe wait next week and do smedts to Doherty or the like, Smedts is named to play and has improved his js a lot

    • What would you do if you made this double trade and found Cox being rested during DT finals? Dean Cox is one of the few ruck men to play every match and the Weagles might just rest him, if they can, before AFL finals. Also you might have to cover an injury or two as well.

      Keep the trades for now unless you must make them to get into DT finals. If, you get through, there will be surely some other downgrade target and, if he keeps playing, Smedts’s price will surely go up too.

  • DEF: Delidio, Goddard, Suckling, Birchell, Conca, Heppell, Carrazzo (sam shaw, Spurr)

    MID: Swan, Ablett, Stanton, Boyd, Thompson, Beams, (Gibson, Sexton)

    RUCK: Cox, Giles, (Redden, Campbell)

    FWD: Franklin, Sidebottom, Robinson, Dangerfield, Martin, Cloke, Zorko, (Pfierrier, Black)

    4 trades left with $93,100 in the bank

    going to cop atleast one donut this week, i guess its better no than during finals..

    Thoughts overall?