The Numbers – Round 14

With the carnage of the MBR’s now fading in the distance, ‘Old School Round’ didn’t disappoint. With a top core of 2606 this week, many will be riding high on the euphoria that is the return of all of our premiums. With most teams done with their final upgrades, now all that’s left to do is watch our teams full of guns roll on towards September. Sounds kind of boring, doesn’t it? Well yes and no. Sure, the days of fluid trading are behind us for the most part, however now we can truly get into sledging mode as we look to build towards a superior ranking or the best possible spot in our leagues.

Are you going for overall rank or league glory? Let us know in the comments… but until then, here’s this week’s numbers.

9 – Disappointing as it is true, the Blues have now gone down to Hawthorn for the Ninth consecutive time, with Hawthorn now holding one of the great winning streaks of the modern time. Whilst there are others out there higher, this is one rivalry that grows stronger each time the two teams play. When will Carlton finally break the drought? Who knows – but with the Hawks in great form, the Blues will have to get a lot better to topple the Brown & Gold army next time.

10 – Number of players now priced above the $500k mark as at R14. With the reduction of the magic number and the general lull in ‘super-premiums’ in 2012, this is a far cry from the 22 that started this season above that expensive mark.

13 – After scoring his tenth 100+ score of 2012, Dane Swan similarly racked up his 13th DT score of more than 150 points in a game this week. If anyone ever needed proof of his superiority and DT dominance, there it is.

32 – Throughout the year I’ve paid close attention to the injury lists around the AFL, with Season 2012 being arguably worse than ever before. Round 14 gave us 32 new names to add to that list – whether it be precautionary or a LTI. The most notable for us DT coaches is Buddy Franklin, who suffered a ‘tight hamstring’ following his 3 Quarter domination of Carlton of Friday night. With the initial fears of a long term layout allayed, Buddy may well only miss this weekend’s game v GWS. If I were a betting man, I’d say even if he is close to 100%, Clarkson will take the chance to rest him anyway. For the longevity of his season, I wouldn’t mind if he did just that – so long as he comes out firing for the rest of 2012.

40 – % chance of Richmond going on and making the top 8 in 2012 (in my humble opinion). With 14 wins the suggested staple for making the grade this year, the Tiger’s will need to win 8 of their remaining fixtures to make sure of it. They have winnable games against Melbourne, Gold Coast, Brisbane, Western Bulldogs and Port; whist they’d need a few upsets on their way to securing a spot. With their list starting to step up, the Tigers faithful will be hopeful (but dare I say it, not quite confident) of Yellow and Black marching towards September. As long as it’s not at the expense of Carlton, I’d personally love to see them make the finals.

82.42 – Round 1-12 average of Bryce Gibbs. Largely due to his spending more time in the defensive half then Sam Gilbert does in front of the mirror, Gibbs’ numbers have been far inferior to this time last year, where he averaged 98.73 up to R12. He went onto average over 115 in his last 12 H&A games of 2011, so the question remains: can he do the same in 2012? With his intention to play more midfield in the second half of the year well publicized, any coaches who’ve hung onto Bryce to this point should be hopeful that he can push for another 2nd half like last year as he will be keen to build off his 109 points in R14.

113 – Average points scored per player from Round 14 winner Norfolk Chance. His team had the ride of its life this weekend as he broke the previously unimaginable DT Holy Grail that is 2600. He beat all comers to post the massive score, as well as scoring 43 more points than the next highest coach (2563). What an effort.

169 – Difference between largest score for the round, Swan (172) and unlucky Demon’s defender Tom McDonald (3). Highlighting the large disparity between what could be the difference in a league matchup, this game we play really could go either way. Round 10 saw an even bigger distinction courtesy of Buddy’s 204. That round saw the total difference at a sure record of 198 points, with Dog’s rookie the lowest scorer that round with 6 points.

512 – Remaining Coaches left in the Eliminator competition. Many lose interest/forget about the eliminator (especially if you get knocked out early, like me this year), but for some – it is the only chance they’ll get to vie for a top prize. If you managed to somehow luckily navigate the MBR’s and are still in the running, hopefully you’ve got some trades up your sleeve as you’ll need them to push yourself into the final rounds of the challenging domain that is The Eliminator. Are you one of those 512? Brag away in the comments below.

189,900 – This number represents the largest season price drop of any player of 2012. This figure belongs to fallen Suns’ midfielder Michael Rischitelli. A far cry from a consistent 2010/2011 that saw him avg 96 and only miss 1 game. Now priced at a lowly $283k, he averages 64 in 2012 and his form may be synonymous with the lack of success the Suns have had in 2012. On the other side of the coin, Dayne Zorko is the biggest improver of 2012 price-wise. He will now cost coaches over $400k, almost 300k more than when he started. Remarkably, he’s gotten to this point after only 5 price rises!

Twatter – Your Numbers

Very astutely noted here by Gavin re 2010 Wonder Child Micky Barlow. If coaches are looking for a solid M6 option, Barlow looms as a great, unique pick. He seems to be nearing his best form too, with another 37 disposals on Saturday helping him to a season-high 120 points. His consistency is also startling – with 8 hundred’s (and a 99) coming from his last 11 games. At just $442k, jump on without hesitation.

Cheers to Nix for this one – showing it was a great overall round, with a more even spread across the competition. This stat may have been helped by Sydney and West Coast, with 8 and 7 of their players (respectfully) tonne-ing up at the weekend.

Send me your ‘Numbers’ for the week @McRathDT

Bone of Contention

As tempting as it is to rename Ryan Hargrave here again, this ‘award’ goes to Saints utility Brendan Goddard. With the majority making ‘God’ their first picked defender for 2012, he’s been disappointing so far this year, with a 91 average at least 10 points less than we all expected. With scores of 81, 71 and 75 in the past 3 weeks, Goddard hasn’t been the staple in our defence that we anticipated. The silver lining? 57% of coaches have him. Oh yeah – did I mention he’s likely to be suspended for 2 weeks?

Close Behind: Dyson Heppell, Travis Cloke and Matthew Kreuzer.

Whore of the Week

It would be remiss of me not to mention Captain Dane Swan here first, with his outstanding 172 points against Fremantle yet another notch on his heavy belt of DT-Related accolades.

But the R14 WotW goes to inconsistent North Star, Mr. Andrew Swallow. He scored an excellent 144 points v St Kilda Sunday just past, with his score largely made up of his 13 tackles. Whilst most huge scores come from 30+ disposals or massive goal tallies, Swallow just kept plugging away, with his work off the ball a sure factor in the Kangaroos’ big win.

The Round Up

Highlights – There were some huge scores this week again, with Andy Swallow, Luke Shuey and Shane Tuck at the top of the list. However, with 23 more points than any other this week, Fantasy Pig Dane Swan was on fire yet again – now just one more tonne away from costing $600k. Watching Mitch ‘Kamikaze’ Robinson and Dustin ‘Don’t Argue’ Martin bounce back to form with 115 and 109 respectively was a personal highlight as we start to see many premiums start the second half of the year in great form.

Lowlights – Pendlebury not getting up again was a tough blow – but luckily for me his replacement Gibson scored well in his absence. Chapman was another to miss through injury, leaving coaches to rely on bench cover without the bald Cat. Adcock, Goddard and Hargrave were a bit light in scoring, with popular forward picks Riewoldt (47), Whitecross (66), Goodes (64) and Cloke (42) letting down their coaches in an otherwise high scoring week.

Team McRath – For once, I’m actually up and about following my breakthrough score of 2485 this week. Carrazzo did well on debut, with Captain Swannie (172) leading a high-performing midfield of Boyd (132), Mitchell (124), Barlow (120), Rocky (119) and North Rookie Gibson (110). Apart from Porps outscoring Zorko from the bench, things finally went in my favour. I jumped over 6,000 spots in the rankings to a now half-respectable 10,000. There may be hope for me yet.

Now, onwards to Round 15 of the AFL Premiership Race and Dream Team Season. With a desperate Blues outfit taking on a firing Magpies team, I hope for 3 things: a good game; a Blues win; and some good DT scores to come.

Also, if you’re not following me in the Twittersphere, say g’day @McRathDT

80 Comments

  • #1 article on DTT McRath.

  • Great read McRath.

    I am one of the coaches still in the eliminator, but I was under the impression it’s now down to 512 coaches, rather than 1024. Have I messed this up?

    • Yep, 512 coaches left in the Eliminator, not 1024.

      I’m also still standing – tempted to upgrade Hayes to Boyd this week (rather than waiting a week)… will see how my opponent looks

      • I won’t be throwing trades at an eliminator win, as I stand to gain more by winning my cash leagues (and the odds are much better!). Have a full team of premos and 5 trades for LTIs and finals. eliminator wins are just a nice bonus. Only ranked 1100 odd so already punching above my weight getting to the last 500.

        • i’ve had a pretty ordinary year (currently ranked around 1,800 mostly thanks to 4 or 5 forced trades on ruckmen) , and given i’m not in any leagues i’m going all out to win the eliminator, as small a chance i may have.

      • Upgrade Hayes WHY he is a star and scoring well and has all year..

        • Hayes is averaging 96 this year, and 90 in his last seven matches.

          Boyd is averaging 117 this year, and 120 in his last seven.

          yes Hayes has performed well above his initial starting price would suggest, but Boyd is averaging >20 points a game more than him, and is bottoming out. Where is the downside to upgrading him?

  • That Gibbsy average cuts deep here. I can see him on his way back though… well, it’s on the horizon, but it might happen! Damn Roy for talking me into him this year!

  • Nice numbers McRath. Particularly like the 40% chance the Tigers have. Wish it was higher.

    Goddard out is a bugger – just when I get Pendles back. And I still have Zaha sitting on the bench laughing at me.

  • Nice one Mcrath
    Good to see my tweet in the twatter section, Barow is slowly gaining momentum. But all this attention he is getting could ruin my POD

  • great article mcrath!!

    Heres my team have 3 trades left and $18,000 in the bank!
    need to carrazzo in! but dont know what to do?? please help!

    DEF: Scotland, Delidio, Goddard, Waters, Birchall, Hargrave, Darley (S.Shaw, Spurr)

    MID: Swan, Ablett, Thompson, Boyd, Pendles, Watson,( Pfieffer, Williams)

    RUCK: Maric, Cox (Redden, Campbell)

    FWDS: Buddy, Sidebottom, Robbo, Dangerfield, Martin,Zorko, Beams (Dickson, Zaha)

    • Sore cut and paste finger yet?

    • Downgrade Zaha as your forward line doesn’t really need him (not to mention he’s injured) and upgrade Hargrave/Darley > Carrots. Then you’ll probably have money left over to upgrade the other.

    • Downgrade Swan to a rookie, then you can upgrade 2 of your underperforming Premos (Buddy, Goddard) and turn them into Jack Anthony and Zac Dawson. You will be a serious threat for the car after these trades!

  • Do Carlton have a tagger apart from Carrazzo?
    Asking because Carrazzo will go to Swan/Pendlebury and somebody will go to the other.

    • Aaron Joseph was a great tagger in 2009, holding Gablett to 18 disposals once. Also, Ellard once kept Priddis to 15 disposals in 3 and a half quarters, so he can tag if required.

  • Also what happend to the Armageddon background on the graphic?

  • Product improvement suggestion: Save your trial trades and team set up.

    Now that you can reverse trades it would be cool that when the green dots come out you could scroll through every team set up you proposed (or saved ones at least) to see what it then looked like.

    That and not having to actually go into a players stats to put him on the watchlist.

    DT website is slow enough.

  • Jaime Elliots honest to goodness JS?

    • Ben Sinclair is not playing now, and the coach rates Sinclair. We’ve seen Williams go, I think Elliot is next with Seedsman and Sinclair fighting for that position. Mooney is in for Clarke/Williams, so he is fighting for a spot as well.

    • When Sinclair returns, he’ll go. And also, when Pendles comes back, Blair will do the Elliot role. Don’t think it’s great.

    • I actually think it’s quite good. He really stepped up against the Eagles and Mooney would go out before Elliot. Both are forwards

  • 2 – no of weeks Goddard will be suspended if he takes an early plea leaving my backline no better off after trying to strengthen in it by grabbing carrazzo. Hope Darley gets a gig this week.

  • Sexton -> Baguely (If he plays great, mainly there for DPP).
    Bugg -> Carrazzo

    8 trades left.

    Deledio, B. Goddard, B. Scotland, H. Waters, B. Suckling, M. Clarke, M. Carrazzo, A. Darley, S. Spurr, L.

    Boyd, M. Swan, D. Ablett, G. Selwood, J. Pendlebury, S. Zorko, D. Gibson, S, Baguley, M.

    Cox, D. Giles, J. Stephenson, O. Redden, J.

    Sidebottom, S. Franklin, L. Beams, D. Robinson, M. Johnson, S. Martin, D. Treloar, A. Adams, T. Pfeiffer, D

    • Or given Dees Go advice above, could be M. Clarke to Carrazz.

      This would actually suit better the I still have a 50/50 chance of either Darley or Bugg getting a game.

    • Stephenson to Campbell seems better, then Clarke too Carrazzo.
      Clarke has to beat Williams, Young and Mooney for a spot in the team, and also won’t be helped when Pendles returens.

      • Cheers for the advice.

        I think I’m happy ‘wasting’ to get Bagely given tbetta rates him and if he doesn’t play at least he opens up the mid/def DPP.

        Still early days…. Campbell or Baguley might/not be named…..

        • Shazzam – pretty good position to be in with 8 trades left. Bagely named in Bendigo best consistently over the last 5 rounds.

          Your thoughts.

          Def: Goddard, Delidio, H.Shaw, Birchall, Waters, Scotland,Bugg (S.Shaw, Spurr)

          Mid: Boyd, Ablett, Thompson, J.Selwood, Swan, Priddis (Gibson, Horse)

          Cant afford to upgrade Bugg to Carrazo but can do Horse to Carrots. Carrots be used as cover for Goddard during 2 weeks off (with the link established God can sit on midfield bench). then use the DPP link to sub Carrots into bugg spot in defence and bring in a rookie mid

          thoughts?

        • If Campbell’s named, the Big O trade will get more coin & Sexton can still be used for DPP even though not playing- his price won’t be changing . If a rookie Mid/Fwd gets a game, or you need the coin you can always make that change at a later date (Sexton will be sitting on my bench for the rest of the season for that reasonunless we get another Zorko appear)

          • You are right.

            Sexton and Baguley can wait. Would be a handy dodge a donut trade later. Thinking Gibson should be quite handy for the nextshort while……

  • Def: Goddard, Delidio, Heppell, Birchall, Waters, Hargrave, Ellis (Bootsma, Darley)

    Mid: Pendles, Boyd, Ablett, Thompson, Mitchell, Swan (Gibson, Sexton)

    Ruc: Goldy, Ryder (Stephenson,Redden)

    Fwd: Sidey, Buddy, Robinson, Zaharakis, Martin, Beams, Dangerfield (Hall,Zorko )

    30,000 in the bank 5 trades left

    I was thinking:

    Hall to Murdoch/Frank OR should i just get carrots and keep gravy as D7 and hold my trades for the rest of the year
    Gravy to Carrots

    Later on in the season with 115,000 go:

    Ellis/Darley to Johnson

  • 135 the amount of point accumulated by leigh adams on the weekend. I don’t know what percentage of ownership he is but i have persisted with him since the start of the season and has restored my faith in him. onward and upwards from here hopefully.

  • Should I wait after this week to trade Pendles in? How much is his price expected to drop?

  • This is a great way to waste time at work!

    B: Deledio, Scotland, Waters, Broughton, Goddard, Drummond, Bugg (S.Shaw, Bootsma)

    C: Pendles, Mitchell, Rockliff, Watson, Shuey, Priddis (Horse, Williams)

    R: Cox, NicNat (Redden, Stephenson)

    F: Franklin, Robbo, Martin, Dangerfield, Sidebottom, Tippet, Hawkins (Didak, Walsh)

    $2 900
    3 Trades

    I know I should sit on my hands at this stage in the comp, but I have two big matchups coming up (against my brother and a mate who wouldn’t let me forget about it) and I’m sitting 7th in my league..

    Is it worth going Horse>Murdoch (by subbing Didak to mid)
    and then Bugg>Carrots..?

    Would leave me with 84k for an upgrade later..but only 1 trade………

    #EndRant

    • Mate put those hands back under your bum. You will need more then 3 trades to see you though IMO.

  • Def: Deledio, Waters, Birchall, Heppell, Carrazo, Goddard, Hargrave (Darley, Shaw)

    Mids: Stanton. Watson, Boyd, Swan, Ablett, Barlow (Treloar, Gibson)

    Ruck: Maric, Cox (Stephenson, Redden)

    Fwds: Beams, Sidebottom, Franklin, Robinson, Dangerfield, Martin, Zorko (Pearce, Sexton)

    Ranked 107, scored 2532 last week, still in the eliminator, 20,700 left in the bank 5 trades remaining…

    Not sure, should I hang onto my trades, or downgrade Treloar to Couch freeing up enough money to upgrade Pearce and Hargrave to Chappy and Scotland leaving me two trades and bench cover for the rest of the season… thoughts? (Once I downgrade treloar Couch will be my DPP link so Martin/Zorko can cover my midfield bench if necessary.

    Cheers.

    • Sexton is unlikely to play again for the remainder of the season. Treloar will provide good cover for you for the remainder of the season. If you want to generate some $ then Sexton is the one to be downgrading.

      Great team and ranking mate. All the best for the upcoming weeks in the eliminator.

      • Sexton WILL NOT be playing again.

      • Ah yeah forgot about that haha will do, if so I will only be able complete one more upgrade, should I go hargrave to scotland or pearce to chappy? Bugging me this one…

        Cheers again.

  • Who will be a good ruckman for the rest of the year to replace Bellchambers? I have 20,000 in the bank.

  • who’s a good ruckman for around 350, 000?

    • Mumford if you don’t mind taking a risk

    • If you’re keen for a punt – Lobbe might be a smokey that could give you a nice edge come DT final time when everyone has Cox/Maric/Giles…

      Came back to the fold this week with a nice 104… not bad for a young bloke

  • Going Ellis > Carrots this week. Got a lot of leftover cash so thinking of:
    J. Cameron > Dusty or Hurley. Richmond have a good run to finals but Hurley is starting to hit some form, plus Crameri is suspended so Bombers will rely on him more. Not to mention he’s a POD.
    Dusty is a bit more reliable though, but everyone has him!

    • Hurley is not a DT Firendly player, never has been, never will be.

      • his two recent outings haven’t done enough to convince? I know the safe option is Dusty but like i said, he’s pretty much in every team.

      • I would stay away from Hurley mate, he’s just not a DTer, simple as that, the last 2 games have been good but he wont keep it up.

        • Hmm yeah I guess that’s the risk that comes with key forwards, you have to rely on them kicking 4-5+ goals each week. Think I just got excited as a Dons supporter seeing Hurley finally get some goals going, but at this stage of the comp you’d want consistency over anything.

        • Martin may not be unique, but his durability and solid scoring can’t be ignored, he also has the potential to end the year strongly as he showed last week with 109. Dusty imo.

    • Found another option, forget Hurley. Jordan Lewis? Bit more of a comparable option. Priced the same as Dusty and has been a bit more consistent (87 avg) without scoring huge. Only in 4% of teams too.

  • is dell’olio JS safe for atleast another 2 weeks now that crameri’s out??

    • How can anyone possibly know that, unless we’re part of the essendon coaching team….

  • Who to upgrade to carrazo, I think he is a absolute steal at $375,000.

    Def: deledio, Goddard, waters, Johnson, broughton, lake, enright (Ellis, s shaw)

    $17,300 in the bank, in order ATM I’m thinking, Lake, Enright then Broughton?

    Thoughts? Thanks

  • Hey guys, looking at bringing in Carrazzo this week, but I don’t have enough cash to upgrade Clarke with one trade. My team is complete except for that D7 spot (Lids, Goddard, Birchall, Grimes, Waters, Heppell, Grave, Clarke and S.Shaw), but I only have 5 trades left. Basically what I’m asking is, is it worth using 2 trades (Redden to Campbell, Clarke to Carrots) leaving me with just 3 left for LTI’s?

    • Upgrade Gravy to Carrots and keep Clarke for Bench cover, thats what i’d do anyway.

      • Agree, grave > Carrots, leaving you with 4 trades for LtI’s…lock & load!

        Great Numbers yet again McRath!!!
        13 scores over 150 for Swanny, the pig is unstoppable! :D

  • I have Conca… I’m stuck with him… Has anyone heard about him? Will he be back this week?

  • “Another likely inclusion is Reece Conca with the former pick 6 being left out of the side to face Adelaide, given he still travelled with the team as an emergency”.

    Source: Fantasy footy club (don’t know how good their info is, but it’s all I can find on Conca).

  • Murray Newman was very impressive in his first game. Whats his JS like?

    • I would have said absolutely minimal.

      Newman got bleed at eagles vs bottom side at Patersons…. Basically they were letting anyone have a run. Rick the Rock was listed as an emergency.

  • Who in order should I keep for the rest of the season? Clarke, Bugg or Darley?

  • DEF: Delidio, Goddard, Waters, Birchell, Heppell, Hargrave, Sam Shaw, (Townsend, Spurr)

    MID: Swan, Ablett, Stanton, Boyd, Thompson, Beams, (Gibson, Sexton)

    RUCK: Cox, Giles, (Redden, Campbell)

    FWD: Franklin, Sidebottom, Robinson, Dangerfield, Martin, Cloke, Zorko, (Pfierrier, Black)

    7 trades left and $223,900 in the bank.

    I want to get carrazzo in for either Hargrave or Townsend. i was thinking of keeping hargrave and trading townsend but it wont leave alot of cash after the trade. By trading hargrave (which would leave me with about $100,000 odd i think) i would have to play sam shaw or townsend on the field… :/

    Some other options ive thought of is:
    Dowgrading Pfierrier to Murdoch

    Trading Travis cloke out but for who..im not quite sure.. :/
    want to get maric but ill have to hold on that trade.

    Its looking like ill be doing 2 trades this week just a matter of picking the right players to take out and bring in.., im just about settled with my team. but as i said im not keen on cloke being in my side but i probably need to focus on my defence more.

    Sorry its a tad long..

    Thoughts on my options and overall team would be much appreciated??

    Cheers

  • With Goddard out this week, is it worth upgrading Ellis to Carrazzo considering his good JS so far, or Shaw (cost more money) / Darley? This will leave me with hargrave as D7, 4 trades and a complete team, apart from upgrading hargrave for the final if injuries and restings let me.

  • Howdy all just looking for some thoughts on my team atm cheers!

    DEF: Delidio, Goddard, Waters, Suckling, carrazzo, Lake ,H Shaw, (Ellis, S Shaw)

    MID: Swan, Ablett, Watson, Boyd, Mitchell,S Selwood, (Gibson, Treloar)

    RUCK: Cox, Maric, (Redden, Campbell)

    FWD: Franklin, Sidebottom, Robinson, Dangerfield, Chapman, Beams, Zorko, (C Pearce, Crozier)

  • Def: Goddard, Delidio, Heppell, Birchall, Waters, Hargrave, Ellis (Bootsma, Darley)

    Mid: Pendles, Boyd, Ablett, Thompson, Mitchell, Swan (Gibson, Sexton)

    Ruc: Goldy, Ryder (Stephenson,Redden)

    Fwd: Sidey, Buddy, Robinson, Zaharakis, Martin, Beams, Dangerfield (Hall,Zorko )

    30,000 in the bank 5 trades left

    I want to get in Carrots and maybe another defender