The Numbers – Week 13: MBR Hell

Trying to find an accurate metaphor for the MBR’s got me thinking about my fictional cousin Boris. Boris has recently gone through something most of us will/have done that can be very closely assimilated to the recent DT Hell that we know (and hate) as the MBR’s. Boris is studying Law at Uni; and spent all semester working hard preparing for the dreaded end of semester exams. Being the studious kid he is, he spent hours upon hours crunching numbers – working on a plan to safely (and comfortably) negotiate the exam period. But like each semester before it, his beautifully constructed plan fell to pieces as his pages of research and preparation counted for squat as he was hit hard by the carnage that is exam week.

Back to the land of DT; and I (and all of you) have been experiencing a very similar situation over the past few weeks. With all of our preparation in the bag; a quiet confidence spread across the fantasy football community. But all of this was undone in the first week, with LTI’s, Resting and poor form ruining our well-thought out plan with one fell swoop.

Before we march forward into the bright light and away from those three letters, let us first reflect on some of the positives (and negatives) that we’ve experienced over the past 3 rounds of the AFL season.

After a few weeks off, let’s get back into it and check out the Numbers once again.

6 – Now past the half way mark of Season 2012, the ‘Ruckman’s Curse’ has been well publicized in the DT community. To put this into context, only 6 ruckman have played every game for their team this year – with Ryder, Maric and Cox the pick of the bunch. At this rate, we’ll be lucky to see two go through to R23 without picking up an injury of some sort.

7 – Trades I made during the R11-13 stretch, with my strategy to pull ahead of the fledging field all but blowing up – with key injuries and soft players being omitted (Duffield, Hargrave – I’m looking at you) contributing to my lean period of DT scores. With the maximum 9 trades on offer, did anyone take up the ‘challenge’ and use all 9?

9 – Current win streak of the Collingwood Magpies. After 2 early slip ups against then-Premiership fancies Hawthorn and Carlton, the Pies’ are on a one way road to September, with their depth proving most important with key injuries to superstars Pendlebury, Swan and Shaw all coming during that period. With their best 22 just about fit, they’re poised to make a huge run at the cup yet again in 2012. Do I hope that this will jinx them? Absolutely!

10 – Current size of West Coast’s injury list to date. With around 130 AFL players on the injury list, Collingwood, Freo, Gold Coast, GWS & Melbourne appear to be the worst hit at the moment. In terms of star player injuries, has their honestly been a year with a higher toll? Whilst injuries can be tantamount to failure in a long season, player depth is as important as ever. Tellingly, the top 2 teams (Pies & Eagles) have 12 and 10 players currently sidelined as of R14.

14 – Amount of crusty, tasteless donuts that I was forced to devour in this hellish period. If anyone copped more, I’d love for you to let me know in the comments so I can sleep a little easier at night with this terrible number on my mind.

19 – Has there ever been a lower score that has resulted in a NAB Rising Star nomination? Well, surely young Adelaide defender Daniel Talia’s 19 points in R12 v St Kilda must be right at the top (or bottom as it would be) of the list. With only 7 touches in the game, he was justly rewarded for his efforts on the Saints’ talls.

24 – Here’s a good rule to follow regarding upgrading to premiums: when it’s their first game in over a month, give them at least one game to ease back into it. If you were one of those who brought in Goodes at his R12 price of $448k, unlucky. Now only $418k with a high BE of 145 after his sub-affected 24 at the weekend, he’ll be right for the taking after one more week for under $400k.

80 – A solid score on its own, but hardly the kind of score we want to see from 2 games. Unfortunately for owners of returning Irish player Marty Clarke, that’s all he’s given us over the past 3 weeks. Just last month he was touted as a D7 keeper, however back to back sub-50 scores have put him on many coaches’ naughty list. Such is my faith in the lad from County Down, I plan on playing GWS rookie Sam Darley ahead of him for my important Round 14 H2H matches.

130 – MBR Average of the Mask of Zorko. With a breakout 140 against the Hawks and a beautiful follow up of 120 this week, he has all but firmed as a F7 keeper. I heard a saying during the week “Barlow was the old Zorko” – couldn’t be more right. With an average of over 110 from his past 5 matches, he is more than proving himself in a young Lions team closing in on the top-8.

537,000 – Starting the season with $2.4m sitting on the ground in my midfield (top 6), the current value of my engine room is now close to the $3m mark, with 537 being the rough difference. For justification, my current midfield is Boyd, Swan, Pendles, Mitchell, Rocky & Barlow. With the evening out of the magic number, this begs my curiosity, who has the most expensive midfield in the game at this point?

Twatter – Your Numbers

Cheers to Andy for this one – just goes to show that there is a very big difference between the best in the MBR’s and the best overall. If you managed to average above 1600 over the 3 week period, you’d more than likely find yourself (if I can paraphrase our PM) ‘moving forwards’.

Also to DTTalk’s own TeeTee for pointing out what we’re all thinking. But it can only get better from here, right…?

Send me your ‘Numbers’ for the week @McRathDT

Bone of Contention

This week’s bone of contention is as obvious as it is annoying as all hell. Ryan Hargrave was coined as a ‘great pickup’ and a ‘keeper’ as at Round 4 of 2012. Since then, he has gone on to score a few 90’s, 2 sub-60 scores and has missed a total of 4 games (including the bye). With the likes of Carrazzo ($385k), Grimes ($415,900) and Hanley ($358,700) hitting decent form its time coaches consider life without the unreliable Bulldogs backman and look at cashing in on one of the aforementioned bargains.

Whore of the Week MBR’s

With so many players missing over the past 3 weeks, consistent high performance is something that we’ve not been blessed with from many of our premiums. However there has been one that has stood out in the MBR’s to give coaches a lot of smile about. Dayne Beams has been brilliant so far in 2012, averaging 112 overall and a massive 136 over the MBR period. With his massive 155 in R11 and his 117 in R13, Beams has been outperforming most ‘super-premiums’ this year – stamping himself as a bona-fide AFL (and DT) star.

Back from the Brink

Nick Lower returned to the Fremantle seniors on the weekend; and what a return it was. Totalling a game-high 30 touches and 115 DT points, he shouldered the majority of the grunt work contributing some good numbers for the Dockers with 8 clearances, 8 tackles and 15 contested possessions. Priced at $374k, he offers great value if he can continue that role for the rest of the year.

(Worst) Trade of the MBR’s

Thanks to all on Twitter who let us in on their terrible trades. Anyone who traded in Jack Riewoldt after his huge 135 + 147 in R9/10 would’ve been ropable after he went down injured, only to play out the next 2 games for an underwhelming 58 and 55. But with the Tigers’ run home, he may yet come good for those who took the leap of faith. Unfortunately the same can’t be said for those who traded out Heath Scotland – after the Blues got the diagnosis drastically wrong, any who ditched the Carlton veteran in anticipation of a 3-4 week layoff would be inconsolable after he got up 1 week later only to score an excellent 100 against the Weagles.

Made a bad trade and want to vent? Let me know on Twitter @McRathDT

The Round Up

Highlights – This period has seen many lows with only few highs. Sidey and Beams’ R11 domination of Melbourne was pleasing to see; whilst Zorko’s emergence as a definite F7 keeper has been brilliant (and much appreciated); Rocky’s return to prominence this week gave me a slither of hope going into the home stretch; and at least there has been some good footy on in the absence of the full rounds.

Lowlights – Where to start? Injuries to Sandi and Pendles capped off what was a horrible month of DT. The backline continues to be the bone of contention for most coaches, with consistency and reliability words that are as relevant to the AFL Umpires as they are to our Dream Team Back 7. Let us hope for few injuries and a higher level of consistency in our quest to glory in September.

Team McRath – With one more than a baker’s dozen of donuts in the bank, the MBR’s have truly been hell for the boys. The inclusion of Mitchell, Cox and Swan during the past few weeks has helped a bit – but nothing short of a miracle was going to save my season. And like so often in life – that miracle just doesn’t come.

 

Also, for those wondering about my cousin Boris: his exams are now over; and he managed to fall over the line and pass all of his exams – however like many of us in the land of DT just fresh out of the gates of MBR Hell, all Boris has to show for his troubles are some meagre numbers and a bit of extra weight around the middle caused by a new found addiction to Red Bull and a bucket load of Krispy Kremes.

Now, as we look forward to Ten Rounds of Bye-Free DTing – let us remember (like Boris) that this hell is bound to be repeated next year, with the evil ‘Dean’ Andy Demetriou already penning in 6 MBR rounds for Season 2013. Luckily for Boris, at least he gets to graduate next year. Whilst as DT tragics, we’re not as lucky – bound to these stressful times until the day we retire.

How did you pull through the past three weeks? How many donuts did you stomach?

Also, if you’re not following me in the Twittersphere, you’ve been missing out – so hit me up @McRathDT

121 Comments

  • 16 – The number of doughnuts that I consumed over the bye rounds. 5-5-6 was how mine were spread out, the majority coming from players being dropped the week, at in which, there team played.

    Great work with the article mate.

    • Unlucky mate. However it would be hard for them to be dropped a week their team didn’t play…

      • Unless they got dropped from the 2’s in their Bye week, which only Jack Anthony is capable of doing.

  • Nice numbers again McRath. I can put a smile on your face – 15 tasty donuts for me despite planning for only 5.

    The only thing that made me smile was Zorko – a ray of light going through the MBR tunnel of gloom.

  • Top work McGrath, as always. I’ve been in the office since 4am this morning – gotta love EOFY in the accounting industry – so this has brightened the morning somewhat.

    A couple of quick numbers of my own before diving back into these spreadsheets…

    9 – I took up the challenge and used all nine trades over the MBR to improve the team. Averaged 1835 over the three weeks and jumped from a ranking of around 13k into 1211. One more trade (Carrazzo next week) needed to finalise the squad with bench cover to include Kreuz, Priddis and Martin (and Ellis/Shaw down back, but whatever).

    20 – Amount that I dropped on Beams to win the Brownlow this morning. Maybe a 4am start does funny things to rational thought? He’s paying $51 and on current form (and with Swan/Pendles missing games) could well be a good smokey, I think.

    • Nice work mate.

      I dropped a lazy $10 on Scott Thompson at the start of the year @ $51 for the Brownlow and $25 on Gazza @ $15. Reckon both will poll well.

      Should make Brownlow medal night more enjoyable!

  • I used all 9 McRath :(

    I blame Lewis, Hmac and Scotland for trolling me in round 11.

    Still got a few in the bank but :D

  • Used 8 trades…
    Mids worth 3,091,000 – Ablett, Swan, Stanton, Boyd, Thompson, Selwood

  • l used 4 trades over the MBR

    My midfield……
    Swan, Ablett, Pendles, Thompson, Boyd, Selwood
    Current value…….$3,086,600

  • Ooooh yeah the numbers are back! Great stuff buddy.

    I used 8 trades over the MBRs.

    I had more league wins over the MBRs than I’ve had all year! 7 pre MBRs, 11 post MBRs.(5 leagues).
    I won 3 games in a row in a league where I was winless.

    Scores over MBR’s 1539, 1770 and to finish off, 1655. Average (rounded up,) 1655!!!!

  • Mids $ 3 110 900 Swan Ablett Rockliff Boyd Staton Pendles

  • I had 9-7-2 total 18 MBR Donuts

    mids: Swan, Boyd, Jelwood, Redden, Thompson, Priddis
    $2,944,500

  • 8 donuts
    mids: Ablett, boyd, Swan, Watson, Ebert, Redden
    $3165400

  • haha, goodes score was barely sub affected, its not like he was subbed out in the first quarter, it was during the last, he might have reached 30 points if he played it out, maybe.

    everit, the guy he was subbed in for the last quarter scored more than goodes did in the previous 3 quarters!

  • 13,000- around the number of places I jumped up in the rankings during the mbr’s

    6- number of trades I made during the mbr’s (out of sheer frustration really. With my season well and truly over I turned to rage trading)

    4- yep thats all the trades I have left, however my midfield and forward lines are set with keepers and good bench cover, my backline is one keeper short of being full strength (yes waiting for you mr carrazzo), and my rucks are well rather average with giles and kreuzer and big O for backup.

    All in all I just want to finish top 10k this year after a disastrous season, and ofcourse finish well in my leagues, 4 of which I’m hanging around 7th-10th atm and one languishing on 16th. Currently ranked about 24,600

    Expected far far better this year but hey take a number behind all the other poor bastards in the same boat right!

  • 3 – The number of MBRs I enjoyed, this game is getting far to easy and oversimplified so it was good to separate some strategies. Also 3 – number of trades used over the MBRs

  • 7 trades, 6 donuts for me… took my rakning from 5800 to 2100.

  • Here are my numbers:

    5- Donuts I took over the MBR’s thanks to Hargrave :(
    7- Trades I used in the MBR’s
    4213- Spots i jumped up the rankings
    3034100- Starting 6 mids worth

  • Good Stuff McRath. Always a good read.
    6 trades for me used and 6 donuts.

  • 15 – Donuts

    6 – Trades used

    1717.66 – Averaged over MBR’s

    $3,069,800 – Price of my midfield consisting of Swan, GAJ, Stanton, Pendles, Thommo & Rocky (will be more once Pendles, Thommo & Rocky get there low scores out of their rolling average)

  • I really want to get 360 into my side but with a fair bot of solid mediocrity in my FWD line, I can’t justify trading out any of Chappy, Rusty, Danger, Cloke, Martin or Zorko (Treloar, Smedts)

    I could still trade Clarke (Irish) or Morris out of my back line using Smedts, but still to many half decent FWDs.

    Can anyone talk me in or out of this decision? I have $600k and 11 trades (oh yeah!)

  • 4920- number of points scored over MBR’s averaging 1640
    8- number of donuts during the period
    7- number of trades used, team is set now, contemplating trading priddis-rockliff?
    4- number of trades left for the next 10 rounds!
    856- ranking before the mbr’s
    251- ranking after the mbr’s
    $3,043,600- swan, gablett, Watson, Boyd, Mitchell, priddis.

  • should we trade giles to ryder, griffin or jacobs etc?? or is that a waste of a trade for a few extra points??

  • 20 DONUTS FOR ME INCLUDING 12 IN RND 11

  • my ranking 248 to 5437 ha

  • My Mid Now

    S.Thompson, Martin, SSelwood, Stanton, Sidebottom, JMAC

    after my injuries clear up and swap some players from fwd to mid

    S.Thompson, Stanton, Pendlebury, Coniglio, Martin, SSelwood

    Sidebottom swap to fwd for Sexton bring in Coniglio and Pendles from Bench for JMAC and Sexton

  • Hanley as Captain vs MElbourne ?

  • who has better JS croizer or deliolio??

  • Jumped from 70k ish total ranking to 42k. Car is in sight >.>..

  • Not sure of the $$ value but happy with the stock
    Mids are
    Stanton – Swan – Pendles – Boyd – Ablett – Thompson – (Trelor & Gibson)
    Fwds
    Sidearse – Beams- Franklin – Robinson – DangerF – Chappy – Zorko ( Martin & Couch)
    Coming 1980th odd

  • 19- number of donuts i consumed.
    From what was meant to be 5-6 ended up being 3-9-7.
    All i can say is maybe i should get rookies next year that might hold their spot in the team.

    • and chuck in sandi’s 10, didaks 6 and gibson 17 i guess may as well have been 22

  • Hey Genghis,it might be worth holding onto pendles for next year now mate.

  • Hey guys, like many of you I am going to upgrade giles but rather than the jacobs and the ryders I was thinking of David Hille. Any reason why I shouldnt?

    • Way too injury prone….best not to go there.

      • hmmm true that, then its out of mumford, griffen or jacobs, and im thinking mumford has been pretty injury prone this year, and jacobs is avg the same as giles so that leaves me with griffen but if sandilands returns in rd 22 then i will lose a premium ruck when i need him most…decisions decisions…

        • I can’t see Freo making Finals and therefore wouldn’t risk playing Sandi.
          Griffin or Jacobs.

          • well the choice is easy then, griffen it is! cheers eeepo!

          • Totally agree Eeepo, Hille too much of an injury risk, and there’s also Bellchambers to worry about too. Griff seems like a solid enough pick but what if Sandi comes back early for the DT finals, he probably won’t, but it would be a nasty surprise late in the year, especially with limited trades by that stage. Jacobs is the safe bet.

  • 4 – Number of ruckmen I’m considering for Giles

    Maric – get in right now, killing it this year.
    Jacobs – get in in a week, underperforming so far, good value??
    McEvoy – get in a week (or two), good value???
    Griffin – get in now, good alue, change in role, will 211 be back in finals & ruin my premiership dream???

  • Great article McRath
    8 trades used.
    52 places dropped.
    Midfield value – $2,991,700
    What’s the better trade? – Priddis to Rocky or Giles to Maric

    • I’d defs get in Maric mate. Rocky is a star but has been a bit inconsistent whilst Maric is the best ruckman in DT atm. Period. Priddis will come good for a 100-105 avg so hold imo.

    • Agreed.

      Think of it this way: How many more points per week will you get in each trade? It’s a bit tougher with Rocky being inconsistent, but I still think the margin between Maric and Giles is a bigger improvement than Rocky and Priddis.

  • 20 donuts for me bad bad But iam happy my team is so near to complete. In fact it is complete i just would like to know what is going on with Hargraves and thought please

  • $3,085,300 – the value of my midfield of,
    Swan, Boyd, Thompson, ablett, pendles, Mitchell.

    2000 – ranking I dropped over the MBR. Ending on 3200 overall.

    2438 – projected score for Rnd 14.

    18 – donuts I ate over the MBR.

  • I’m in a funny situation with Giles. All the talk so far is of upgrading him, but I took the road of jumping on the Maric train and actually hung onto Mummy through his injury, saving me a trade for the MBRs.

    Clearly Giles is not to the same standard as a fit Maric and Mummy and I’m tempted to cash him in (Tom Campbell maybe depending on whether he plays/how he goes this week with Minson available). Could really do with the upgrade money (as opposed to the smaller amount from cashing in Big O).

    It’s essentially the difference between bringing in Carrots for Lee Spur (if I cash in Giles) or bringing in Carrots for M Clarke (who would be B7 at the very most but actually plays). The cost is of course, I lose a reliable backup and am vulnerable to a short term injury.

    • As for trade I regret most, probably bringing in Stanton (hear me out!).

      Classic error of bringing him in after missing the boat for way too much money. Could have meant I avoided the above problem if I had a few more funds around.

      Total Donuts: 5+4+6 = 15

  • excellent read, boris….

    21 donuts (unbelievably, for 3 wins)
    8 trades
    mid: 3,160 000 (deledio,watson,swan,boyd,ablett,thompson)

  • 15 – donuts over MBRs (used 6 trades)

    1532 – avegage over MRBs

    $3 140 200 – midfield worth ( Ablett, Swan, Boyd, Pendles, Redden, Thompson )

    3132 – overall ranking now, dropped from 751 before MBRs

  • 3,212,800 GAJ, Swan, Pendles, Boyd, Watson, Beams bring on the rest of the season.

  • 6 – trades used during MBRs
    6 – trades remaining for season
    8 – number of donuts during MBRs (5-0-3)
    1729 – Average score during MBRs (1509-2091-1586)
    23,860 – Places gained in overall ranking during MBRs (now an almost mentionable 13,191)
    2,833,900 – Current value of my midfield (Abblet, Pendlebury, Ebert, Sloane, Priddis, Simpson)

    • Another terrifying midfield

      • Um, Ebert is one of the top mids this year, Priddis usually averages 100 and Simpson not far off.

        Check yourself Albert.