Chook’s Rooks – Round 12

Job security. It can be low, like when you snap and take a nine-iron to all of the computer screens in your office and a co-worker uploads the video to your boss’s Facebook page. Or it can be high, like when it’s 1953 and you’re Queen Elizabeth II. Strong job security is a pretty important ingredient to throw in the mix when you’re picking rookies for your AFL Dream Team, but it’s even more so as we enter the second half of the season. At the start of the year, you don’t give a toss if rookies only play six games for the year, as long as they’re the first six and they’re scoring at a high enough rate that you can sell them off for a big profit. Now, though, as we start to finalise our squads, the blokes you pick are likely to be with you for the long haul, and you’ll want them on the bench week-in, week-out, ready to cover for the inevitable short-term injuries to the frontline soldiers.

In round 12, some of our rook-stars sent pieces of LCD screen flying in every direction with pitiful performances that will no doubt inspire some Donald Trump-style sackings, while others sent their job security soaring with exceptional efforts. I reckon we campaign to have Dayne Zorko’s portrait pressed into our coins in place of Lizzie the next time the Mint does another run.

Three-or-more gamers

Brisbane mid-fwd Dayne Zorko was clearly the stand-out rookie from round 12; it’d be a ridiculous week if 140 points didn’t put you in pole position. It was the highest score by a rookie this season, exceeding Gold Coast mid Kyal Horsley’s 123, GWS mid Toby Greene’s 122 and GWS mid-fwd Adam Treloar’s 119. Some have Zorko firmly installed as their F7 on the back of that performance, (and the fact that, if you take out his first sub-affected score of 26, he’s averaging a touch under 110ppg), but rookies – even mature-aged ones – are renowned for dropping off the pace so I’d expect him to eventually slot into a back-up role for both forwards and mids, if you’ve still got a link in place. Injuries that keep on keeping on, like the one to Scott Pendlebury currently, will ensure he gets a run on my field most weeks anyways, I imagine.

While he scored half of what Zorko did, Adelaide defender Sam Shaw was another who cemented their job security with an assured display on the weekend. His 69-point performance resulted in a $55k rise – his first price movement – and saw him wedged between fellow popular defenders Brandon Ellis (71 points), of Richmond, and Sam Darley (68 points), of Greater Western Sydney. Some coaches have commented that Darley did some golf club-wielding damage to his job security with some errant decision-making in round 12, but I’m hopeful he’s banked enough credit to see him named again this week.

Western Bulldogs forward Tory Dickson continued his renaissance, completely banishing memories of his first two scores (37 and 25), with a 90 to go with some strong returns over the past month and a half. The GWS boys were back to pad out the rookie scores, with Katy Perry forward Jeremy Cameron matching Greene on 87, and back-from-the-brink defender Tommy Bugg notching an 82. There were 70s for Horsley, GWS mid James McDonald and the aforementioned Ellis, who each have 60,000 owners, making it a decent week to be forced to field a few rookies on the field.

Unless, of course, one of those was a GWS mid-fwd by the name of Devon Smith, or worse, Treloar. Smith struggled to 37 in the end, but Treloar could only muster 21 points for the match. The same Treloar that we were talking about amassing 119 a few paragraphs ago had the ignominy of being stuck on a Tommy Walsh-like -3 for the first quarter. His breakeven has shot up to 113, while Smith needs 102 points to hold his price, so if you need the cash, then now is time to sell. Holding either as bench cover until the end might not be the worst decision, either, but it depends on the make-up of your team. Keep in mind Kevin Sheedy’s projection for 14 games, or thereabouts, for his kids, but he could well make an exception for Treloar (eight games so far) and Smith (10 games), given their (pre-round 12) quality.

Two gamers

Don’t bother. Seriously, it’s Richmond forward Brett O’Hanlon, who has the bye this week, and Fremantle mid-fwd Hayden Crozier, if he’s picked for his third game, on the bubble ahead of round 13. Crozier has, admittedly, had the sub’s green jacket slowing him down during his first two games that yielded just 16 and 42 points, but he played close to a full game on the second outing, coming on early for toe-strung ruckman Aaron Sandilands. No, if you’re in the market for a downgrade target, then you’ll have to take a chance on a…

One gamers

There were six rookie-priced players making their 2012 debut last week, including the number-one pick from last season’s draft, GWS power forward Jon Patton. There’s no doubting that Patton will be a superstar of the game within a few years, but young key-position players make for notoriously inconsistent Dream Teamers, even the really, really good ones. He nabbed 46 points against Richmond, with some scores half as big, others twice as big and a couple about the same sure to follow in the coming weeks. I talked up job security over scoring potential earlier in the piece, and Patton should be given a real crack at the back half of the season, but a high starting price makes him an expensive bench warmer. While Patton’s debut had been eagerly awaited by the AFL community in general, there was far more salivating from the DT crowd over the first senior appearance by North Melbourne midfielder Sam Gibson. After a slow start, Gibson warmed to the task and finished with 67 points. Simply, he’s your best bet if downgrading this week, with the other one gamers including Gold Coast forward Liam Patrick (who just squeezes in, costing about $5k less than Patton, the cut-off point this year) and defender Taylor Hine, and GWS housemates Mark Whiley (back) and Sam Schulz (mid).

What are y’all doing in these downgrade-light days? Let me know in the comments or on Twitter @ChookDT.

95 Comments

  • I went Adams – Beams and Magner – Gibson, because he seems to be the only decent downgrade and I needed the coin to bring in Beams. What about Mitchell, Couch and even Miles? There seems to be a lot of talk about the first 2 and Couch would provide me with a much needed DPP in the midfield. Jut can’t see the logic of bringing them in just to warm the bench.

    Cheers Chook…

  • firstly… I’d like to say great article as usual

    also, gibson next week is gonna be tasty

  • Great write up as usual Chook, and congrats on being top of the All Stars league.

    Apart from Gibson looks like there is going to be a shortage of downgrade targets, and Treloar and Smith are going to bleed cash this week.

    So tempted to go Treloar>Beams but then I still have the Zaha donut problem.

    • Good stuff chook always look forward to your articles.
      I have done 1 trade using Dpp link hall to Priddis what do you think guys??

  • Great work Chook for all your hard work over the season, no more downgrades for me. Cheers Mate

  • I read that Sam docherty is in great form in the twos and should get a game soon. I think he got 28 possessions in his last game from memory.

    • Yeah I’m thinking of getting Sam in. Hopefully he gets a game in the next few weeks. His Mid/Def is very very tasty, with Lids, Carrots and Goodard in my Def makes chopping and changing for the rest of the season pretty easy.

  • speaking of job security chook, you might be close to the chop soon! … there are hardy any downgrades rooks left and nobody has trades left anwyay! ;)

    the article will get smaller and smaller from here, guess it happens every year.

    maybe you can sneak off to the bahamas for an early holiday!

  • Nice work Chook.
    I’m waiting 1 more week for Gibson.

    Hoping, (as @leetrevor81 mentioned,) that Docherty will appear soon.

    As for this week’s downgrade, I will be going Smith -> J.Staley as I have Roughead, Cox, & Giles in my rucks…..nice little cash grab, the R/F link very handy.

    • better wait til next week Eeep, Staley is not likely to play this week is he so might as well have Roughy on the ruck bench rather than fwds, allows you to have DSmith scoring or (and how many of us can say this during the MBRs) on the bench with the E. He shouldn’t really bleed too much (famous last words – quite close actually to the famous last words of the Black Knight). If one of your rucks goes down next week (it’s been one of those years) then you haven’t stuck your neck out and could cover that. All of this assumes you don’t need to make two other changes next week I guess.

      • nor need the money this week which probably we all do…

      • Cheers Kel, appreciate the feedback!
        I did like having a playing emergency. :)

        I haven’t been this stumped for trading ever!
        I’ve even toyed with getting rid of Dusty in my mids, shifting Deledio into mids and bringing in one of Adcock/Broughton/MJohnson, then next week, trade out Ellis, sub Lids back to defence, & bring in Gibson, but if Gibson did’nt get picked for his 3rd game, then the $ generated from Smith to Staley, would enable me to upgrade Ellis to an uber premo mid.

        It really depends on what happens tomorrow night…..the picture will be a great deal clearer then.
        Thanx again!

  • What are we doing in these downgrade-light days? Upgrading ;)

    OUT Treloar ($315,100) IN Watson ($520,000)
    OUT Smith ($282,800) IN Thompson ($484,600)
    OUT McDonald ($296,600) IN Swan ($582,800)

    • Gee your Mids mustve been weak prior to this week…

    • You should hold on the Swan trade
      Old Macs got more money in him and Swan wont hit his B/E against the WCE

      • i agree with Nathaniel.

      • I think sometimes we look in to break evens too much.

        The quicker you have Swan scoring 300 points in your team as captain the better.

        Especially if your down to your last couple of downgrades, there isn’t that much point saving money.

        You have to weight up, save money and lose points, or pay extra and score more points

      • Don’t be ridiculous. Swan will outscore McDonald by at least 50, and the difference in what you fork out this week or next will be under 10k.

        Pull the trigger Chad

  • Keep up the great work Chook.
    It’s time to replace Old Mac with Young Buck Gibson!

  • Good write up as usual chook!
    No Downgrades for the great GK this week…

  • heard couch is getting a game this week “for sure”

    i mean, fair enough, i’ve heard that for the previous 12 rounds as well, but y’know

  • Trelaor is fat enough and will be traded for Gibson before he starts to leak dollars. Cozier is a risk, but if you need the cash. Crozier/Gibson on the pine with 6 premiums in midfield. Crozier is DPP too…

  • Will ditch either smith or treloar this week for Gibson, unsure of who yet

  • Im thinking of going;

    Treloar>Thompson
    D Smith>Pavlich

    Both very cheap and are playing GCS & Melbourne in the GF so should score big & help towards a league win.

    • Unless for instance Adelaide or Freo are cemented in the Finals, and want to rest players …

      • Freo? Finals?

        You’re having a laugh.

        • Yep I am having a laugh ;) Comment mostly geared to Adelaide… point is we have no idea which teams will be taking the last round seriously.

          Last year I remember collingwood had a shocker, and half the hawthorn team was rested. Just saying it could be diabolical.

      • doubt freo will be anywhere near finals…

  • Miles/Morabito if they’re named

  • Still the likes of Clifton to get a game for GWS, Docherty a useful potential downgrade and surely one of either Couch or Mitchell will get a game soon?

    That would leave me with 7 trades left for the back half of the season hoping to limp into finals in my league.

    Luckily everyone else is in the same boat.

  • O great Chook,

    Rookie small forward Dell’olio could be a good chance for recall this week (for his 3rd game), with Davey suspended for 2 games. Mature age from WAFL with Essendon travelling to Perth … the chickens seem to be getting in line, but long term JS still an issue.

  • How many rookies do you guys have in your starting team ?

    • if i had all my players available this week. None, well maybe Giles over Kreuzer.
      In reality though with the bye, i have every available player on deck and still have 5 donuts. FMDT

  • My team..

    B – Goddard, Deledio, Waters, Broughton, Bugg, Drummond, Mohr, (S.Shaw, Bootsma)

    C – Pendles, Watson, Rockliff, Priddis, Shuey, Mitchell, (Horsely, Williams)

    R – Cox, Naitanui, (Redden, Stephenson)

    F – Franklin, Robinson, Dangerfield, Tippet, Hawkins, Martin, Didak, (Treloar, Walsh)

    $424,600 in the bank

    5 Trades left :(

    was planning on getting rid of Didak due to injury…either for Beams or Sidey
    I want to upgrade a defender but don’t like anyone who doesn’t have a bye this week so might wait til next week for Scotland/Carrots..

    Any advice????!?!?!

    • Get rid of drummond from your team immediately. And if funds are okay also get rid of mohr.

      • I don’t mind drummond as a D7 at this point…what’s your reasoning? injury prone?
        I just don’t want to go too trade crazy with only 5 left

    • If I were you, because your so low on trades, I would wait for Didak to come back. Don’t quote me on this, but I’m pretty sure another poster said he was a couple weeks away. You might be able to scrape by with 5 trades, but only if you use them for LTI’s and not short term injuries

  • Gonna ditch Horsely, Treloar and Zaha for Beams, Crozier and ROK.
    Not too keen on Crozier but need the $$, and ROK’s a gamble but he’s averaging a tick under 100 recently.

    Then next week ditch Old Mac for Gibson and upgrade Shiel/Dev Smith to GAJ.

    As always, if Tom Couch would get a gaem, that’d be mighty handy…

  • This week im gonna trade Horsley to s.gibson and next week ill trade hargrave to cararzzo and Jmac to Dane swan …. any thoughts ????

    • Good Trades. How many do you have left?

    • Can’t you upgrade a rookie to Carrots? I am as annoyed with Hargrave as anybody but he is d7 at worst.

      The way the year has gone Hargrave has actually been good.

      • +1. I am keeping Hargrave and don’t understand the hate, his late withdrawals won’t result in donuts in other rounds and his junk time play is just too good for me to justify trading him.

  • 7 left after this round, i have been hit with so many injuries !

    • Thats not too bad. Are you planning on making any more upgrades after this?

      I’m going to be left with 6 trades after I get Carrots in.

      Which could be bad …

      I consider getting both Zaha and Pendles out last two weeks as using up 2 of my 8 planned LTI and finals trades :(

      • well i will upgrade zorko and maybe sam shaw and even giles

        • If your worried about only having 7 trades why would you trade out Zorko after getting 140? As mentioned in the article, he averages over 100 if you take away his sub affected debut…That is better than most forward premiums.

          Hold on to him and give him a chance to contiunue his form.

          If he averages 100 for the rest of the year and you use a trade to get another forward who averages 90 odd, that would be a massive waste of a trade.

  • Second year doing DT and I LOVE IT!

    Love reading all of Chooks articles and the comments section. Would appreciate ppl’s input for my team please if you would be so kind…… Wondering whether to give Hargrave the boot, he’s forecast to drop another 15K this week.

    Thinking of trading Treloar for Gibson and upgrading sexton for beams, which will leave me with 79K in the bank and 6 trades. I’m happy with my mid and fwd lines, Think I need an upgrade or 2 in the backline though………… leaving me looking like this:

    I Currently have:

    B – Deledio, suckling, lake, broughton, heppell, hargrave. (shaw , spurr)

    M- Boyd, Ablett, swan, priddis, zorko, mitchell, (Mcdonald, gibson)

    R- Jacobs, Giles, Stephenson

    F- Franklin, sidebottom, beams, dangerfield, cloke, hawkins, martin (ballantyne, cameron)

    • 6 trades is a bit low, I would consider leaving your back line as is if your happy with forwards and mids

      • thanks for that. What do u think of my backline?

        • Your back line is fine. Hargrave might not be considered a premium, but at the same time most premiums in defence besides a few average in the mid 80s. Hargrave averages 77, so your only losing 5-10 points by holding on to Hargrave.

          Leave your side as is I reckon

  • Current team

    Delids goddard shaw heppell birchall hargrave ellis (smedtas shaw)

    swan jelwood thomposn priddis barlow mcdonald (horsely smith)

    Cox giles (reddenn stephenson)

    franklin sidebum chappy danger robinson martin zorko kenedy hall

    cash 183000 11 trades

    thinking in coming weeks of trading out mcdonald and horse for gibson/couch and another prem mid (not sure who but if i do these trades this week i could afford anyone under 625000 so pretty much anyone.)

    Hargrave to carrots

    leaving me with 8 trades and ~100000

  • I like your point about the potential for Zorko to hit the wall Chook. Too many times we have penciled in performing rookies as keepers only for their scores to take a dive. Horsley’s hump or the Magner misfire anyone? I’m not saying it’ll happen to Zorko because I like the way he racks up a ton with only low 20 possessions but I’m going to hedge against it by not trading out Martin this week, especially with the Tigers draw looking to soften after the bye. Although his numbers against GWS weren’t great last week!

    • +1 Zorko could dud it up from here on in but everyone and his dog is hoping he doesn’t!

  • With the prospect of a 4 donuts this week in my team (and I suspect a number of other team this week) I am considering breaking the law and sideways trading:
    DEF: Goddard, Sucking, Delidio & Scotland (OUT) ==> Waters (IN)
    FWD: Martin, Robinson, Franklin and Hall (OUT) ==> Beams (IN)

    I have 12 trades left, my MIDs and RUCK are set and not effected this week.

    I am looking more at Martin and Robinson getting the chop. Is this just silly or worthwhile? Looking at overall ranking opposed to league win.

    • SOOO STUPID

    • It is silly, unless it’s Hall you’re trading out but you didn’t say how much dosh you have so dunno who you can afford.

    • If you can upgrade/down grade fat cash cows to cover your byes (such as Hall) thats a much better option

  • I got Gibbo in for Coniglio this week, but am pretty darn sure Gibson will get dropped if not this week soon. He looked a very average player.

    • Gibbos a ball magnet and that’s what north need he got 60 odd points in a half and was a dud in the other half

    • I watched the game and i thought Gibson was decent. He went missing in the first and last quarters, but in the middle he racked it up and was loose on the wing quite a number of time for a cheap mark and kick/handball. looked pretty composed and comfortable on the ball as well, ignoring his hold in the ball that he started the game with

  • Should i keep zaha on the bench?
    My team stands as this

    Def: Goddard,lids,birchall,waters,heppel,hargrave,clarke(Morris,spurr)

    Mid:Swan,ablett,boyd,mitchell,rocky,priddis(Gibson,zaha)

    Forw:Franklin,beams,sidebottom,robbo,martin,chapman,zorko(Sexton,dickson)’

    Gettin chappy for trealor and maybe shaw for clarke,then in 2 weeks spurr to carrazzo?

    after chappy trade i have 8 trades left, and i was also thinking that zorko is a good f7 and can hold the spot until zaha comes back, thoughts?

  • After Treloar, McDonald -> Swan, Thompson I have:

    B – Deledio, birchall, goddard, waters, heppell, hargrave, conca (clarke, ellis)

    M – Boyd, Ablett, swan, thompson, watson, mitchell, (williams, gibson)

    R – Jacobs, Goldstein, (Kreuzer, Redden)

    F – Franklin, sidebottom, beams, dangerfield, robinson, christensen, martin (zorko, porplyzia)

    150k in the bank.

    Aside from conca -> carazzo in two weeks, not sure I can make this team any better than it is and will save trades for LTI/finals. If a midfielder has an LTI I will do a direct swap, if it’s a 2-3 weeker I may bring in goodes for them to have dpp cover until finals.

  • I have 11 trades left with $279,800 in the bank.

    DEF: Delidio, Goddard, Waters, Birchell, Hargrave, Darley, Sam Shaw, Townsend, Spurr

    MID: Swan, Ablett, Stanton, Boyd, Thompson, Jmac, Horse, Sexton

    RUCK: Cox, Giles, Redden, Stephenson

    FWD: Franklin, Sidebottom, Robinson, Dangerfield, Martin, Cloke, Zorko, Pfierrier, Black

    Any ideas..? thoughts overall..?

    trade wise im thinking maybe…

    Horse out, Gibson in
    jmac out, beams in

    OR

    Horse out, Gibson in
    Dustin Martin out, Beams in

    any other trade ideas maybe..? future ones..?

    • Do the first one

      Even though Dustin Martin isn’t performing great he is still in your side as a premium so your first trades should be focussing on turning rookies in to premiums.

      Turning Martin in to a better premium should be a luxury trade AFTER upgrading all your on field rookies

      • yeh thanks
        now i reckon i’ll go…
        this week: IN: Gibson and Beams and OUT Horse and Jmac
        RD 14: IN: Carrots and maybe Maric Out maybe Hargrave and Giles
        RD 15: IN: maybe get Scotland or even cloke out for chapman..?
        what do i do with Spurr, Darley and Townsend..? should upgrade one of them but not sure if i will have enough cash.
        Maybe i could downgrade Pferrier…?
        I got quite a few options and trades i can play with so thats good..

        Thoughts..??

        • As good as Maric is Giles is good enough for now as a ruck.

          I’d finish your defence first.

          If possible keep Sam Shaw as your number 8 defender as back up (looks very promising and should play most, if not all games) and look at upgrading 2 of Darley, Townsend and Spurr if possible.

          • yeh that does sound better.
            should i downgrade Pfierrier in 1 or 2 weeks time to Crozier for cash. than i can upgrade 2 of spurr, townsend, Darley. which 2 would you upgrade..?
            Pfierrier still got abit abit of cash left in him atm.

  • Could Lee Spurr play this week??
    i hope he does..need his cash…

  • mids at the moment – selwood, mitchell, priddis, ablett, pendles (gibson, d.smith)

    what do people think about a pendles to scotty thompson trade?
    reason is i’m covering a donut and also freeing up cash for other fixes that i may need to make.

    i’m planning to bring in swan later on in the season when priddis has gone up. thoughts?

    9 trades.

  • No one has mentioned Judd…. Is it worth trading horse for Judd?? Surely Judd must turn I around after the break … Number 7 mid??

  • There should be a good backline downgrade option over the next few weeks! (not that anyone needs one!)

    Mark Baguley has been ripping it up in the VFL over the past couple of weeks, and after I just watched the hanger he should almost be a certainty to play this week!!!

  • Hey Chook (or anyone else),

    I apologise if you have mentioned this but I couldn’t find anything regarding your opinion on Gibson’s job security? Nth Melb don’t have many injuries, so does that competition for spots make him risky? I’m keen to bring him in for Treloar to boost my bank role but last time I trade in a one gamer it hurt (can’t bring myself to mention his name so I’ll refer to him as little miss -3) BAD!

    I don’t know much about Nth Melbourne so anyone in the know, your thoughts would be much appreciated.

  • DEF: Delidio, Goddard, Waters, Birchell, Hargrave, Darley, Sam Shaw, Townsend, Spurr

    MID: Swan, Ablett, Stanton, Boyd, Thompson, Jmac, Horse, Sexton

    RUCK: Cox, Giles, Redden, Stephenson

    FWD: Franklin, Sidebottom, Robinson, Dangerfield, Martin, Cloke, Zorko, Pfierrier, Black

    I have 11 trades left with $279,800 in the bank.
    thoughts overall..? Any ideas..?

  • Anyone for Corey Dell’Olio?