Chook’s Rooks – Round 7

Three-or-more gamers

Man, hang around a little longer

Did you hear about the long-time Man City fans who, having stuck by their often-beleaguered Blues/Citizens for the best part of 50 success-starved years, left the stadium in tears with just a few minutes remaining in the final game of the English Premier League season when it appeared that Manchester United would pinch the title, and as a result missed the club’s two injury-time goals and one of the most amazing comebacks in world sport?

As someone who sold Greater Western Sydney midfielder Stephen Coniglio two weeks ago, I feel their pain. I stuck with that bastard* through the bleak first five rounds of the season, but bailed out after he followed a week on the sidelines with a sub-affected 46. At that point, his round-three 73 was his highest score and, while he undoubtedly had some price rises left in him, it looked as if the dollars would be coming in dribs and drabs from here on in.

Instead, Salad Boy busts out a couple of humungous scores, re-igniting his cash flow and winning a Rising Star nomination in the process. Okay, so perhaps 44 years and five rounds isn’t exactly a fair comparison but, like those Man City supporters, I’m bawling my eyes out right now. Maybe that example is just a case of terrible Dream Teaming on my part (in my defence, I did have to start culling mids with round-11 byes, having five of them in Boyd, Thompson, Greene, Shiel and Cogs), but those who suffered a similar fate when they ditched Western Bulldogs forward Tory Dickson last week are genuinely unlucky.

The coaches who held Dickson through his first two paltry scores and extended spell in the reserves, only to finally lose faith last week and sideways trade him to another rookie, didn’t deserve to see him join Coniglio and GWS ruckman Jon Giles as the only century-makers in the rookie ranks. That’s just cruel.

Mr Ed and The Adams Family

Thankfully, most of those who did ditch Cogs or Dickson were rewarded by the players they brought in. While Gold Coast gun mid Kyal Horsley didn’t quite match Cogs or even his own first two efforts, his 95 was notable both for the fact that it suggested his scoring won’t be greatly diminished when Gary Ablett and Michael Rischitelli are in the Suns side, and according to FanFooty’s m0nty, who knows these sorts of things, it delivered us the greatest-ever single-round price increase ($96,000), beating the week Michael Barlow grew by $80,900.

For many coaches, Dickson became one of GWS mid-fwds Adam Treloar or Taylor Adams. After Horsley, these two were the week’s top earners, with Adams’ 72 in his third game seeing his price jump $60,300,whileTreloar’s 95 in his fourth game giving him a hike of $53,700.

Reptile strikes again

Popular defender Brandon Ellis was on the receiving end of a “run, block, run, block, block” fatality combo from Reptile in round seven, copping Richmond’s green vest for all but the final 10 minutes of its win against Sydney. Ellis scored just six points, making it the equal second-worst case of green vestage for a rookie this season, matching Sam Kerridge’s six in round three and only marginally better than Billie Smedts’ four in round five. Israel Folau scored just four points in round three as well but, unbelievably, he wasn’t a substitute in that game.

Anyway, back to Ellis. His abysmal score not only resulted in a loss of $21k this week, but bumps his breakeven up to 82. Add in the fact that he shares his bye round (13) with popular premiums like Brendon Goddard, Brett Deledio, Matt Suckling and Grant Birchall, and it’s clearly chopping block time. Personally, I’ll be trying to upgrade Ellis, rather than make a downgrade trade, but that’s not an option for some so here are the boys on the bubble…

Two gamers

Something for my broken back?

If not Ellis, then you might be looking to move on GWS defender Tommy Bugg, who’s scoring has dipped in recent weeks, with a view to avoiding an inevitable price drop soon or a doughnut in the first multi-bye round, round 11. In any case, defenders are definitely in vogue, and a cursory glance at the list of rooks who played their second game in round seven reveals a seemingly positive state of play – five of the eight are backmen! Scrape the surface, though, and it’s actually pretty effed up, especially if you’ve got the MBRs at the forefront of your thinking when making trades. It all depends on the structure of your team, of course, but a lot of teams are stacked with round 11 and round 13 backs, (think Bugg/Waters/Hargrave/etc for rd11, and Goddard/Deledio/Suckling/etc for rd13), pretty much ruling out downgrade trades to three of those five rookie defenders in Jacob Brennan (West Coast, rd11 bye), Cameron Delaney (North Melbourne, rd11 bye) and Beau Wilkes (St Kilda, rd13 bye). That leaves Fremantle’s Lee Spurr and Collingwood’s Peter Yagmoor, whose rd12 bye is likely to be less doughnut-inducing than the others. Of course, you need everyone playing in those multi-bye rounds to avoid zeroes, and the job security of both these blokes is questionable at best. The Magpies, in particular, are set to welcome back several players over the next few weeks. Spurr’s spot in the Fremantle side looks more solid, and I’d be very surprised if he didn’t get another go this week, but I’m less confident in predicting an extended run that sees him through the MBRs. Having said that, (I’m forever on the fence, if you hadn’t worked that out yet), there’s not much in the way of defender downgrades on the horizon (none of last week’s debutants were backmen, and North’s Will Sierakowski, named as an emergency last week, shares the rd11 bye), so Spurr looks to be your best bet. It’s just a bet with longish odds, is all.

One gamers

Dayne Train arrives early

Brisbane mid-fwd Dayne Zorko was the headline inclusion of last week’s first-timers, but donned the green vest against Collingwood, scoring 26 points from eight possessions when given his chance in the second half. I really wish coach Michael Voss had held him back until round nine, meaning he’d be ripe for the picking immediately after the Lions (and Giants) complete their bye in round 11. A couple of midfielders – West Coast’s Ryan Neates and North Melbourne’s Brad McKenzie – and a couple of rucks – Adelaide’s Josh Jenkins and GWS’s Andrew Phillips – rounded out the round-seven debutants, with all but Jenkins having their scoring stunted by Reptile. Yep, even Phillips copped a green vest, for those that dismissed the Sub Marine’s pick of a ruckman as a starting sub. Jenkins was reasonably impressive but, like Phillips, won’t help avoid a doughnut if you were thinking of taking him, Giles and another premium into the MBRs as part of a three-pronged ruck strategy, as they share the same bye as Giles. These byes are freakin’ ridiculous!

It looks like there’ll be a lot of Ellis-to-Spurr action this week. Are you going that way, or have you got something better in mind? Let me know in the comments or on twitter @ChookDT so I can copy your cunning plan. Cheers!

*Just posturing, Cogs. I can’t bring myself to hate you when I know you’re going to be a permanent fixture in my Dream Team campaigns from 2014 through to 2022.

277 Comments

  • Great article Chook.

    I put Bugg through the slaughter this week and brought in Wilkes in his place. Unlike most players, I don’t have an abundance of Rnd 13 players and so he fits in with my bye structure. What is his job security like?

    This allowed me to sell Shiel as well and bring in Stanton.

    • Wilkes? You’re farked… he’s about as useful as an 24yo was to Michael Jackson!

  • Great article chook cheers for the incite.
    Iv got a few decisions to make this week any help would be appreciated
    Looking to upgrade bugg but not sure who for, currently have 110,700 and backline is
    Lids, God, Broughton, Hargrave, Shaw, Clarke, Bugg (Spurr, Morris)
    Deciding between waters, enright and birchall?? Unless if i go reverse and get wilkes in instead of spurr and that would give me more $ to get suckling in but not a fan of that option.
    Not worried about byes cos undefeated and will make top4 and looking for league win

  • I am a bit surprised at the lean toward cashing in Ellis and Bugg for Smedts and Spurr or a combination thereof. Ellis and Bugg are proven and have JS, Smedts and particularly Spurr with Lower likely to return have not. Unnecessary risk IMO.

    • How does Bugg have good job security? He is a teenager playing for a team with a confirmed rotational policy, and his DT scores suggest he is tiring. If he plays this weekend, I’ll be surprised. If he plays the weekend after, I’ll be more surprised.

      • Just my opinion. Bugg has been very good, played a lock down role last 2 weeks. Is due for the one week rest, this week probably. Be back in a week or two, fresh no reason not to say he wont knok off a few 80’s 90’s. Spurr comes with great wraps but wouldnt surprise if Lower takes his spot. Ellis too will probably have a rest, be back in a week or two. Spurr and Smedts are not going to knock out big scores to generate a fair bit of cash, may as well keep Ellis and Bugg in particular.

      • Ingoes,
        U can’t say that Bugg doesn’t have good JS. Has played 7/7, has not been subbed at all yet……yes he will probably get a rest soon but pretty certain it will be 1 week at a time. Gotta be better than most other rookies running around surely.
        Plenty of premiums have been rested more than him so far……and plenty more premiums will be rested on the run home!!
        Not saying he is a keeper, but more confident of him playing out games than the likes of Jacob Brennan, Wilkes, Spurr, Smedts etc.

  • Went Ellis >> Spurr
    and
    Bugg >> Broughton

    Hopefully it works out.

    • Went Broughton because of my bye mix, would’ve liked Suckling (ideally Heppel, but didn’t have the coin) but then I would’ve had 4 premos out in Round 13

  • Ellis to shaw/waters/enright or another back without the rd 13 bye under $427,100?

    • Waters is the safe option, if you wait a week or 2 Heppel will be in that range because of his 61, his 137 just needs to drop off his 3 game cycle.

  • haha so funny one of my mates told me last friday that he’s gonna trade out shiel. So i went to him on monday morn. and asked who did u trade him 4. I guessed the horse. And he asked me who’s Horse? Carcked up laughing and then told him he’s a rookie wit an avg. of 106 and had 95 this week. And he replied well good i traded out shiel 4 greene he got 1 point more than horsely. nice comeback….I guess?

  • Hey Guys,

    What is a better option..

    OPtion 1. Shiel to Zorko Ellis to Birchall

    Option 2. Shiel to Zorko Bugg to Scotland

    Option 3. Shiel to Zorko Magner to Mitchell.

    dont like trading in rookies who have played one game but Mitchell is at his lowest price for the year.

    Shiel is my only rookie who has made me enough so I will trade him out but just dont know for what though..

    Help please

  • Hey guys two trades planned for this week, what do you think??

    Masten—> S. Thompson
    Picken—>Boyd

    $366k in the bank

  • From an Adelaide local on the bigfooty forum RE: Spurr

    You guys have got an absolute cracker in Lee Spurr. Probably the most talented player in the SANFL, ahead of the likes of Allan, Thomas, the Gowan’s, Liddel and Pffeifer. A beautiful kick, accumulates well and will run all day through half back and the midfield. Think of Lower and Barlow ceilings for this guy. Best of luck!

    There are many many comments just like that.

    I’m sold. Lock!

  • instead of Ellis to Spurr ( unknow JS for me )….

    i have traded…

    Ellis -downgraded to B Smidits = r12 bye + 71.9 k ( hopefully JS will continue as currently )

    then i have gone …..

    Bugg BE of 74 to C Dempsey = BE 22 ( wont get cheaper this season ) + 56.8 k R12 bye and my B7 keeper

    = bank balance from 37k to 165.8 k + 2 R12 bye players and premo upgrade next week or there after maybe ablett to return to my team as foolishly traded him but upside did grab pendles at his cheapest .

    another possibility if you have a small amount of cash you could upgrade B Ellis to C Dempsey???

    what are DT coacher’s thought’s on this bomb shell???

  • Hmm, my eliminator opponent (Duggienout) this week has one of those teams that smokes it every so often. Bring the shizzle

  • What does everyone think about Jacob Brennan or Wilkes instead of Lee Spurr

  • Great article chook….love the relevence to bye rounds.
    Iv’e done what most have….select a heinz variety and hope for the best.
    By the time I get to fanatasy footy at night my brain is toast.
    MBR’s just do my head in.

  • Is it really worth trading in spurr or smedts to pocket 100k??????

  • Trade 1 this week will be Bugg to Goddard.

    The only other trade that fits my bye structure is Giles to Sandi (already have cox who has r11bye). Giles has a break even of 49 so will miss out on a bit of upside in him, but have already captured most of it.

    Am I crazy?

  • this week…..

    Bugg to Spurr
    Shiel to Zaharakis

    Already got Smedts and would trade out Ellis but i need him for byes and i need to offload some GWS players anyway and Bugg looks like he is on the decline.

    Would go Robinson by Zaka suits my bye structure

    FUCK my team would be so much better if not for these byes…..

  • Out of the 5 backs to play 2 games.

    Spurr
    Brennan
    Delaney
    Yagmoor
    Wilkes

    Who is the best of the lot with the greatest job security?

    I will probably trade one of my other Rookies out for a premo before the MBR anyway so not really concerned who I take.

    Ellis must go. He cost me a win.

  • Quick question:
    Def: deledio, Goddard, waters, hargrave, lake, bugg, Ellis (Morris, smedts)
    Mid: Gaj, swan, peddles, jelwood, rockliff, horsely (shiel, pfieffer)
    Fwd: sidey, Franklin, beams, Martin, Rioli, d smith, porpus (treloar, Cameron)
    Cash left: $142,00
    Really want to upgrade Ellis to a bottomed out Birchall to complete back line. Is there anywhere to free cash as Birchall is still $44 grand away? Or should I just downgrade Ellis to spurr am a bit worried about a spur smedts interchange as it is a bit risky coz of js. Other options could be Ellis-spurr Morris- Birchall but Morris has growth. Want to upgrade rioli to Robinson but will probs wait a week coz of high be on robo, and zorkos 3rd game.
    Thank you

  • Don’t know why everybody is worrying about the Spurr/Smedts choice, spurr is cheaper and smedts has been spudding it up all year, hes in and out of the team and is averaging 40. last week has been his only good week. Spurr a no brainer

  • Trading Ellis out then subbing Smedts to the back to bring in Adams, which gives me enough to trade out jar kennedy for stanton. Next week hopefully trade taylor walker for beams.