The Friday Scramble: Round 7

So the carnage eased a touch last round, but didn’t cease.   We had a few late withdrawals but nothing like last week.  We did suffer some injuries, but the main one, Goodesy at least came after he had scored a ton for his owners.  However, he and McEvoy now both need to be traded out due to LTI’s, however we will have a bit of a chat about trades shortly!

One of the other thing that we were hit with this week is the reminder that the scoring of our GWS rookies will be inconsistent.  Devon Smith was widely touted as someone to get out of your teams last week and I was going to do just that but then had the Fyfe LTI to deal with so didn’t.  But just to show us that he still has some cash to make he came out and smashed a 97.  Just don’t fall victim to good old Captain Hindsight as there is absolutely nothing you can do about it and most importantly, don’t look to trade those rookies back in!  I know people that have done this in the past and it is simply wasting trades.

Speaking of Captains…. I am sure that Calvin will make sure that no-one hijacks his Captains List this week like Chook did last week.  With your captain selection, make it early and stick with your gut (unless there is a late change before lockout which forces you to change).

Would you like Fries with that?

Oh how many times have we heard that phrase!  Well, it is that time of the Dreamteam season where we do need to start upgrading our players from mid-pricers/increased rookies into premiums.  Our cows in the paddock are starting to head towards what they think is the golden barn with the top quality hay in it, but it is really just their DT coaches hiding behind the door with the axe out ready to cull them to make way for better models!

A bit of DT101 here for our newer coaches, but it is time to start checking the BE’s of your rookies and seeing who has reached their max payout.  This is really easy with the Assistant Coach package, just click that little slide button up the top right of your team and you can see their predicted score and their BE.  Check their BE against their averages and if the resulting number when you dedct one from the other is a single digit or the BE is higher than the average, it is really time to start thinking about selling.

Conversely, look at those guys that have ridiculously low BE’s as your upgrade targets.  This week that would include Dyson Heppell, Stevie J, Zaharakis and ROK.  These guys will all go up in price next week, so if you have them on your list of guys to get, then jump on now.

If you are looking at blokes like Murphy, Sam Mitchell or Goddard you may want to wait another week or so as they have quite high BE’s and would be a fair bet to drop in price over the next week or so.

Don’t Cash Cows go Moooo not Neigh??

Clearly the biggest downgrade target this week is our mate Kyal Horsley (or The Horse as he is being referred to around the place) and if you don’t plan to have him after reading Chook’s Rooks earlier this week and also Tbetta’s Bullets from Monday, then I am not sure that you are taking DT seriously enough!  You just have to work out who to downgrade for him.  The biggest candidates that I have been hearing are Jimmy Magner and Dylan Shiel.  Now I know what you are saying… “but Dunny they are nowhere near their BEs yet” … and this would be true, but they are only going to make you 10k – 25k a week now, whereas if Kyal reaches his average he will make you $104k this week alone! 

A question that I put out on Twitter this week was “When you get Horsley in, are you going to play him on your field and if so, who in front of”.  The result was a resounding “ON THE FIELD”.  Everyone thought that he was a better option to have on the field in front of guys like Magner, Shiel, Treloar and Coniglio.  He has had two sensational first weeks and the biggest worry that we have is that with Ablett back this week we are all really hoping that there is no flow on effect to decrease Horsely’s score.

Personally I plan to have him on the park too at the moment, I am really hoping that this guy won’t be the second coming of Beau Muston who lured us in with two 100’s, we all jumped on, then he scored a rubbish score and was then never heard from again!

 Tis the Season

We are at my favourite time of the year and that is the Trading Season!  I know that I have a trading addiction and I am dealing with it.  A big thanks to the guys at Virtual Sports for the Reverse Trade button as it means that I can satisfy my addiction without stuffing up my team!

Just make sure that while we are doing our upgrades (which we have already discussed) that you are thinking ahead.  Start to plan out your final team and work out how many trades it will take you to get there.  Just remember that you need to make sure that you have some trades left for the DT Finals and the inevitable visits from the General which will leave some of your stars sitting on the bench and not winning your way to glory.

The other issue that we have this year is the Multi Bye rounds, you should be looking at the guys you are trading out and the ones that you are trading in and making sure that they don’t destroy your team completely during the bye weeks.  But similarly, don’t simply rely on the fact that you can “trade your way around the byes”.  Even though you have 3 trades a week for those weeks, this means that 9 of your 24 trades are done if you use this strategy.  Leaving you with 15 and you have probably already used 4 so you only have 11 left now.  Then if you save 6 for the finals, this leaves you with only 5 for upgrades and downgrades.  I am sure that any student in Warnie’s maths class can tell you that this is simply not enough trades to get you a championship.  So a well structured team heading into the bye rounds will really help you avoid having to use trades for this purpose with a bit of luck.

So based on that, I thik that it would be inefficient to try and trade around your bye’s, rather the use of carefully crafted upgrades is a better strategy and one that I am certainly trying to employ.

In relation to the Bye rounds there will be plenty of help for you on this site leading up to them so stay tuned.

Ablett Rises …. It’s a Miracle

Well stuff me, he is back.  I have been telling everyone that GAJ wouldn’t play this week.  This was especially after that secret footage I saw from Roy that showed him break down whilst running.  Personally I still think that he will be a late withdrawal.  Well if you have him then you have to make sure you have put him back on the field.  Just make sure that you have got some bench cover. 

If you traded him out like the boys did then what you need to do is prepare yourself for next week if you plan to get him back in.  At the moment his BE is sitting at 127 and if he hits his projected score of 137 he will only go up by $4,200.  But the week after that he will then have a BE of 156 against the Dogs in Darwin where it is traditionally difficult to be clean with the ball so there is a lot of fumbling.  So if he gets his projected score in that game of 143 he will actually fall in value to be $900 cheaper than he currently is.  That would be the time to get on him as the 162 he scored against Essendon will be out of his price cycle and his BE drops right down to a very achievable 108.  So to sum up, don’t despair.  Wait one or two weeks and he shouldn’t cost you any more than what he does right now.

Things to Remember for Round 7

 

  1. Trade Horsley In – This guy is the biggest lock since Mr Lockwood and his brother got together and decided that they needed something to keep the shed secure!
  2. Trade Out Goodes and McEvoy – These guys have LTI’s that mean they are a must trade.
  3. Put GAJ back on the park – If you were clever enough to keep him then for his old man’s sake, get him back on the field.  Just make sure you have cover.
  4. Always keep your ears open on Friday Avo – Last week there was some late mail, like Kreuz getting a game and Selwood likely to miss, so keep your ears open so that you can avoid any carnage if possible.
  5. Trade Horsley In – Just in case you missed it the first time!

Make sure you are ready for the round by doing your trades to get in Horsely and make sure you have cover just in case Ablett is out.  Have a great round and hopefully you can score yourself over 2200.  Also don’t forget your Eliminator matchup, I have just checked mine and found out that this week will actually be a competition unlike last week!

Keen to hear what you have to say about my trading theories and whether you are playing Horsely on the park this week.

Cheers and catch me on Twitter if you don’t already @pkd73

 

194 Comments

  • Magner will score a tonne this week.

    • 60 at most

    • I think 60 also. Melbourne is turning Magner into a pit pony. If they don’t let him play to potential soon, they might break him. Who else does Melbourne have to shut down some of the Hawthorn “possessors” though?

  • http://www.afl.com.au/news/newsarticle/tabid/208/newsid/135510/default.aspx
    Looking very good!
    Make of this what you will…..

    • Even though I traded him out it will be awesome to see the little champ playing again!

  • danger, stevie j, chappy or pav?

    • Depends on your bye structures but Chappy is easily the best dter of that lot….

  • What time are the “final” 4 man benches announced tonight?

    I have Broughton, Bower, Smedts & Ellis in defence and both Broughton & Bower have yellow dots. The possibility of having all 4 as either donuts or green men is a bit scary although I think , alone, is the most likely.

    A possibility, also, is to upgrade Ellis to either Lake or Hargrave with either Bower or Broughton as Emergency, depending on what I can find out tonight and reduce the stress (and increase my score).

    Am I mad to think that the real Brian Lake is back or should I give myself a good slap and go Hargrave?

    • Final teams is usually 5pm. This will only cut the extended benches down to a final 22. Subs are named 90 minutes prior to every match starting. No need to worry about Broughton. He wouldn’t of contested the tribunal this week if they were looking at giving him the week off. Bower is borderline though.

      • Good thought about the tribunal although the consequences of carryover points later on is a consideration too. It seems, too, that if R Lyon gets to like a player, he REALLY likes them – just look at Zac Dawson.

        Thanks for the reply

      • We won’t know if Bower is named with Carlton playing Monday night. i don’t think their team needs to be finalised until Saturday night.

        • Very good point!

          If Broughton is named it wont matter. You would have to put Bower on field this week (after last week) and make sure there is an emergency chosen in the backs.

      • Thanks guys. I reckon Bower in and Broughton emerg. I can’t see the inclusion of Waite effecting Bower as I think they see him as a fwd these days.

    • Oops, that should read “Broughton alone”…

  • adams on or kennedy on…? (GWS guys)

  • Shiel, Cognilio, Horsley on the bench??

  • treloar or adams on field?

    (this is mt 2nd team)

    • Treloar the safer option with Adams named last on the bench!
      ……….

  • Great write up Dunny.
    Any news on Docherty or any backline rookies that have some sort of job security. Almost time to cash in on Ellis/Morris although there is no downgrade options atm

  • What team is Horse in never heard of this guy? thinking trading out Jimmy Bartel for in form Josh Kennedy. Jimmy just not getting the high scores i need? any advice would be good

    • Kyal Horsley plays for GC.

      A sideway trade for Bartel at this stage of the year is crazy.

    • Horse = Kyal Horsely from GCS. Wierd spelling though.

    • Dumb move

      • Ditto about the trade. Geelong is focussed on the end of the season, ahead of now, because that’s when the prizes are won. Unless you desperately need wins now, look ahead and save the trade.

        • Ok thanks for the tip im 3-1 in one league and 4-0 in another so i’ll think ill save that trade, traded out clay smith for Horse so good move.

  • Confused by the resting of JMac (like others) makes selection tricky for rookie mids:

    Which two would you rest

    1) Magner
    2) Horse
    3) Shiels

    Thank you

    • Horse will get a vest if not green itll be red

    • Im assuming you mean Shiel not Shiels?
      If thats the cast I would be playing Horsley simply because of his scoring potential and what he has produced in his first 2 games.
      Magner will tag and Shiel gets 70-80’s not 100’s
      Make of this what you will…..

  • just went magner to horsley…..now thinking golby to heppell

    this will have my team as

    delidio goddard heppell shaw birchall hargrave (elliss,morris)

    swan thompson selwood barlow parker horsley (greene and jmac)

    cox giles (stephensen reddenn)

    franlink martin sidebum robinson dangerfield smith kenedy (smedts ahall)

    backs will be pretty much left for season. – will just need a few upgrades in mids and fwds

    have about 40000 in bank and fifteen trades left

    hows it looking

  • Two downgrades this week Horsley and Adams in for Kennedy and Magner? are these good trades, can do 2 upgrades next week.

  • Getting rid of Magner and Kennedy with Adams and Horsley coming in? are these good trades??

  • DEF delidio goddard bugg mlackeski duffield hargrave clarke (morris smedts)

    MID watson boyd hayes mzungu gibbs horsley (kennedy neale) bit average mid i no

    RUCK ryder giles (redden staley)

    FWD robbison sidebum beams franklin zaha martin porps (pffiefer couch)

    do i need to make any trades not sure what to do with pffeifer and couch

  • did the exact same trades mate . . now just dont know who to bench out of d smith, adams and treloar

  • Awesome write up as per usual! Needing advice
    Def: Goddard, Delidio, Heppell, Waters, Bugg, Clarke, Ellis (Morris, Smedts)
    Mid: Stanton, Pendles, Boyd, Mitchell, Magner, Greene (Shiel, Couch)
    Ruc: Cox, Giles (Redden, Stephenson)
    Fwd:Robinson, Sidebottom, Martin, Franklin, Dangerfield, Goodes, Smith (Treloar, Hall,)
    Bank: $69,000. Ranked 551 (fluke!)

    Was gonna just trade Shiel to Horsely and Goodes to Beams but then I just thought if I trade Goodes to Horsely it leaves me enough money to upgrade Shiel to either Thompson, Murphy or Ablett. Thinking of waiting til next week or so to see how they (mainly Ablett) go. Is this a smart move or should I just do the beams trade? I also have quite a hard opponent this week in head to head but wanna keep my ranking, hrmmm. Any advice appreciated!

    • your a muppet….

    • Perfect trades……but you do look as if you may drift out of the top 100,000 towards the end of the season.

    • With just 12 trades left this early, surely the time for double trades and cash cows is long gone. 12 trades is barely enough to cover the byes (3-4?), finals (3-4?) and injuries etc (4-6?). Unless you find find that 1 or 2 of your players have grown to match the prices of better players temporarily in troughs, your team is pretty much in maintenance mode.

      • To do a downgrade only works if you have a further trade that yields a higher scoring player – a double trade. If you can’t do the second part of the double trade then extra “value” of the first part means not much either. The game is about scoring points not dollars.

        Same goes for a player you have as an absolute keeper that might be in a form slump. Unless you sell him then his prices idiot is meaningless too!

        For the rest of the game, think points and wins and then how you can best use those 12 precious trades.

        Good luck.

      • P.S. The double trade that gets in Beames and Horsley looks great on its own. But 10 trades for the rest of the season????

    • ive jumped on beams! if you want to keep up your ranking and league position, you should probably trade, plus he has a B/E of 61

  • Hey guys what are your thoughts of Griffen??? – very well priced unique pick at $459 seems to be affecting Boyd’s scores over the past two weeks

  • Gents – thoughts on Magner > The Horse and then upgrading Masto to Jobe?

  • This is my trading plan for the next few weeks:

    Rd 8: Heppell – Morris, Spurr – Ellis (hopefully Spurr gets more games, I need more money for the Beams trade)

    Rd 9: Zorko – Treloar, Ablett – Shiel

    Rd 10: Beams – Treloar/Porplyzia/Mcdonald/Greene (depends on prices)

    My other upgrades to do later in the season are:
    Scotland – Bugg, Clarke
    Swan – Greene/Mcdonald/Horsley
    Chapman/Johnson/Dangerfield – One of mid rooks/Treloar/Porplyzia
    Maybe Cox/Jacobs/Mcintosh – Giles

    Any thoughts?

    • talk about 10 steps ahead…

      • Hahaha I just like to plan ahead so I don’t make any stupid trades that I might regret

    • You seem to be getting a lot of people with r12 byes. Have you considered those byes much. If you are focussing on your league then how your opponents are placed to deal with r11-13 will be very important too. Is your team well enough balanced and well enough positioned in your league to support your plan?

      • I have considered the byes. I only have Clarke as a Rd 12 defender so Heppell and Spurr are ok, I only have Sidebottom and Cloke as Rd 12 forwards so Beams is ok and the trades that I’m doing later in the year will be either after the byes or I’ll structure them in the byes so I won’t get too many donuts.
        I reckon my team is and I’m not focussing too much on my leagues. Right now I have 10 Rd 11 players, 7 Rd 12 players and 13 Rd 13 players so the Rd 12 players that I’m getting in will actually help balance my team up more.
        Thanks for your advice

  • who to swap goodes for?

    stevie j, pav, danger, chappy?

    • in the same boat slapper, i went with stevie j. got a feeling…………….

      • i thought stevie j but he is named as full forward…

        where chappy and danger are playing in centre…. might get more ball…

        its a hard one…

        • Tough choice…depends if your in the hunt for car or not….Adelaide have a soft runin the league finals

        • Where players are selected on team sheets isn’t actually where they play, I don’t know why they put him there but he probably won’t play there

      • i got my money…

        • and yeah slapper, i like you’re thinking. i’ll go stevie j, you go danger or chapstick and whoever picks it wrong buys the beers.

  • Horse on the park for Magner?

  • Already traded in Horse, thinking A Hall for Taylor Adams will have 18 trades and 119 000 in the bank, left any advice?

  • I reckon you are on the money with your assessment. Even if it is LTI there is a bloke running around (after removing the green vest) for Brisbane this week that will hold you in good stead for another downgrade.

  • From the looks of your fwd line, theres nothin wrong with your head, c()nt! :D

    O’Keefe for my money; when he finds form, he holds it like its tied up in your dungeon haha

    Get on it bro

  • By my count there is only 2 people who haven’t asked yet whether to trade Magner or Shiel for Horsley….don’t be shy now…280,000 other people have asked the same question!!!

    Seriously..if your not going to take the time to read all the well informed responses on this site, why would you expect people to answer a question that has been posted a gazillion times!!

    • +1

    • Totally agree, that’s all I’m reading, read the article, it clearly answers it for u, and If not, read the 100 replies above that answer the same question!

      • Ban this Muppet…

      • Think we all need to calm down and take a step back. That kind of language isn’t acceptable on this site… Don’t bring down the good reputation the boys have worked so hard to gain over the years…

        If you feel the need to vent in such a way – feel free to do so on another forum/website

      • Seriously guys, go find a location and beat it out of each other if you need to, but not here.

        Grow up and stop being keyboard warriors. This site is too valuable to be putting up with this and damaging its brand.

        Take your fight somewhere else.

    • Good point…but the question has become bigger than the Dreamteam world…I’m sure they were even discussing it on Today show

  • Great article Dunny….Looking forward to magner being a unique in my side….has gone from being one of the most popular players to a majority trading him out…. might have a more of a tagging role now but still punching out good rookie scores….hope to see him fatten a bit more over the next few rounds….somehow this post ended up in round 6 rookie scramble… Dumb ass I is….

  • Scramblicious! Nice stuff Dunny.

    I do value your trading strategies around the MBR’s.
    Can’t go wrong with “carefully crafted upgrades,” but yeah “LUCK,” will no doubt play a major role!

    Kennedy > Horsley, who will be onfield with (E) on Magner joining JMac on the pine.
    I will have 17 trades left after bring in Horsley.

    McEvoy to the pine, Giles onfield to join Cox.

    Now, please, (someone, anyone,) talk me out of trading McEvoy to say A.Pattison R/F, with the view to bring in Jarryd Roughead. (And Giles to Sandi, in round 10!)

    • *18* trades after bring in the Horse.

    • Don’t do it Eeep

      Consider yourself talked out of it.

      • Cheers buddy.
        I just thought about it a bit more and as a result I am now sitting in a corner with my “dunce,” cap on. :-)

        • Hahahaha… Mate, you know that there have been a million worse trades proposed….most by me…love the avatar.

          Thought it was a sad clown!

          • Can you tell I’m a bit bored!

            Check out “you know who’s,” advice. (So now it’s signed sealed & delivered! If he says yes, it’s NO!!!)

            Comment From mikey
            hey doc, thinking of offloading kreuzer and downdraging to 85800k ruck and just use the cash elsewhere? 4th ruck doesnt need to play i reckon

            Dr Dream Team:
            Mikey, that’s what I’ve been saying all along brother. Fourth ruck = forget about him. Trade, quickly!

  • Goodes > Horse done
    Can’t decide between Hall or Kennedy for Beams?
    One not playing but could fatten on return, other playing but reaching BE.
    Leaning to Hall, but seems early to trade him out… Any thoughts appreciated

  • Tweet from Geelong announcing Jimmy Bartel due to ankle injury. Replacement not named yet but, from the emergencies listed, I would pick Byrnes.

  • What are everyone’s thoughts on upgrading Devon Smith. Am looking at Zaharakis for 389k but my forward line will be finished and it wont have Beams should i wait till next week and do another downgrade to bring in beams who will prob rise about the same a Devon or just stick with value and bring in Zaha? Thanks

    FWDS Currently

    Robbo Sidebottom Chappy Franklin Dangerfield Martin D. Smith (Treloar Hall)

  • Alf and John, This isn’t the place for that sort of rubbish. If you need to yell abuse at each other do it somewhere else.

    Please don’t destroy what the 3 guys have built up over the years by reducing the forums to slanging matches filled with profanity.

    Thanks

  • Gaz confirmed to play.

  • I have Goodes and Mccvoy! Was going to trade out these 2 but then had a rethink – I don’t think I can miss out on the horse.
    So am swapping Goodes into mids for Treloar, then trading Goodes to the Horse.

    Problem is who to trade MccVoy for (already have giles)…

    Sandi – injury prone but has a good bye round
    Cox – chance of resting and lower scores with nicnat around
    Mcintosh – lower scores with goldy playing.
    Mullet – don’t know if i can trust him
    Kruze – inconsistent

    Thoughts?

  • Bartel is out probably only for a week but i feel like a trade should i trade him out for in form swan Kennedy?

  • So I’m going to trade Hodge out of my team but wondering whether its worth getting Stanton with his expensive price tag or should I go with cheaper options such as Murphy, Scott Selwood, Kennedy, etc? I already have Ablett, Boyd, Bartel and Horsley

  • Bartel out might as well trade, Watson or Kennedy?

  • hey guys just a bit confused, was broughton handed a 1 match ban or not?

  • can someone please help me, two options for upgrades
    1. Duffield/Conca to Heppel
    2.Ballantyne to either Stevie J/Chappy/Beams/Robbo/Sidey
    please Help