Hook’s Quarterly Review

I have been thinking about how I should write this article. Should I be funny like RL Griffen? The only problem with that is I’m not very funny. Should I use sentimental analogies that call back fond memories of the good old days of double dragon and Sega? Maybe, but I would lose half of the audience on this site who don’t remember Alice in Chains or Stone Temple pilots (love the 90’s music).

Instead I decided to write it in a format that I know best and that is business (I am an accountant after all). I apologize in advance if it is boring to read and poorly written. Hopefully you can look past that and still find the information and statistics useful.

Executive Summary

In this report I will analyze and draw some conclusions from which teams are the easiest to score against. I have looked at the stats from the previous 6 rounds and tallied the number of 100’s scored against them as well as the total points scored. From this data I have been able to rank them from easiest to score against to the hardest. What I found was a little surprising. Hopefully you can use this information to help choose captains (along as Calvin agrees of course) and decide who to play from your benches.

Statistical Analysis (100’s and points scored by the opposition)

Interpretation

So what do the statistics tell me?

1)      They tell me Melbourne is by far the easiest team in the competition to score against. Look for some big scores from Hawthorn this week.

2)      Collingwood are not the same defensive team they were last year and are actually the third easiest team to score 100’s against. I got the sense of their lack of DT defensive pressure by watching their games but it still took me by surprise when I saw the numbers. They have more 100’s scored against them then GWS!

3)      Richmond has definitely upped its defensive pressure this year with less 100’s and points scored against them then both Geelong and Saint Kilda.

4)      Despite their record and ladder position the Crows are still relatively easy to score DT points against.

5)      The best DT defensive teams are the Eagles , Essendon , Carlton and the Hawks, all conceding only a miserly 2 x100’s per game. I would think twice about captains or bench options if they are playing these teams.

6)      The teams in the middle of the ladder eg Freo, STK, WB, Roos and Port are all capable of giving up the points against the better teams but are good at holding the weaker teams to low scores (which I guess makes sense given their AFL ladder positions).

Conclusion and Recommendations

Hopefully you can use this information to make decisions on who to play on the field or who to captain. The statistics are pretty self explanatory so I won’t go into details. Of course there are other factors such as quality of opposition played, ground where the points are scored, weather conditions ect but if you find this type of article useful maybe I can do some more in depth analysis on these additional factors later.

By the way a big shout out to Dream Stats where I got all my statistics from.

Good luck for round 7 dreamers.

Cheers, Hook

53 Comments

  • Nice work!

  • Numbers everywhere! Love a good statistical analysis, well done Hook

  • Really really good. Thanks.

    Hear what you are saying about the Pies, but I’d also note that the 100s against them are possibly drying up. Last 4 games, 7, 5, 4, and last week 3 tons against them. They are implementing an altered game plan and just starting to hit their straps. So they might not be as fruitful a DT meadow as you are suggesting

  • probably the SECOND best article ive read tonight, always helps to look for logic to pick player x instead of player y

  • Awesome analysis, genuinely useful stuff. Can’t believe how many points the Pies are giving up this year!

    • Good for Rocky this week.

      • +1 colonel. A guy on dreamteamcentral did a similar analysis. These numbers are why why I won’t be putting the C on Stants again this week vs WC and will be moving it to Rocky vs the pies.
        Stants backed up his 77 with a 193, what can rocky back up with?

    • +1 Benny, well said. Thanks for the seriously important number’s breakdown Hook, cheers!

  • Good analysis Hook. Still probably won’t put the big C on Buddy.

  • Great work Hook!!! Absolute genius.

    I now can point anyone that is doubting me that the Tigers are on the prowl to this article.

    Excellent work mate

    • Ridley – I’m going to write to VS and ask them to handicap you!
      Any bloke that gets a month off from the missus has an unfair advantage IMO!

    • Tigers – the team everyone wants to see win unless they are playing your side!

  • Top job Hook – You can do my tax return this year!

  • Great work Hook… being a fellow stats buff…this got me a little too excited!

    Well done mate!

  • Cheers for the comments guys, I’ve taken a lot from this website over the years, its nice to be able to contribute something back (must admit it’s pretty cool to see my article online too!)

    • nice work mate. how is it that you get the opportunity to write an article anyway?

    • yeah mate good work.

      good feeling seeing your name up in lights!

  • Great article Hook, very interesting stats…well done :)

  • Awesome work Hook! Really helpful info

  • this is pure genius Hook. article of the year so far for me. this is crucial info, especially when it comes to captain selection. take it down now please so nobody else sees it.

  • Hook, you are an absolute superstar mate. Great read and very valuable information, cheers for sharing it.

  • Gotta love those countif functions hook. Great work.

  • Good article, thanks!

  • Im leaning towards the C on Buddy this week… Thoughts?

    • Melbourne apparantly has three guys ready to share the role of shutting him down. A quiet buddy could possibly be the only positive they could hope to take from the game, so I’d be wary.
      Of course, if anyone can beat thre opponents…

  • Pure Quality, cheers bud!

  • stanton’s 193 last week went along way to pushing the whole essendon team score over 2000 against brisbane and as such, are the only team to have done so so far! amazing… also considering buddy as captain after reading this. This report, like alice in chains, is awesome. well in hook! already looking forward to the half year review..

  • Think mitchel will be captain this week! also dont know if you realsed but under port adelaide you have richmond twice. Round 1 should be st kilda but an interesting read over all

  • I have GAJ, Stanton, Boyd, Thompson, Horse, JMAC and Murphy in the mid.

    Based on this fantastic analysis, I’m now seriously thinking JMAC for Captain with GC missing so many of their premiums.

    Thoughts anyone?

    • I made ziebell my captain a couple of weeks ago when North played GC without alot of their premos, he scored about 60. I was lucky that popular captain picks didn’t score well that week (except swan)

  • With AIC and STO ,aking a comeback, I’m sure everyone knows what you’re on about! Great post!

  • Great work Hook!

    Forget GWS… I can’t wait for Ablett v Pies!

  • I feel like watching the movie ‘Money Ball’ after reading this article.

    But since I don’t have it on DVD I will have to watch our VHS version of Tom Hanks and Shelley Long in ‘The Money Pit’.

  • Sorry this is off topic…

    I would like to make a suggestion to the DT Talk staff(champs). Wouldn’t it be beneficial to have facebook-like-notifications when someone replies to your post. Often our posts gets lost in hundreds of other posts and can be hard and time consuming to see who has replied to your post when looking back in due time. There is also a great risk of forgetting you wrote the post. May be something worthwhile investing in, may create extra traffic to this site. Would love to have some kind of notification connected to my phone or something.

    I’m not that computer savvy… this may not be possible. Just a suggestion.

    ps. hopefully I remember to look back on this post :P

  • excellent work Hook

  • Should i go Lance Franklin as a unique captain this week, what do you think guys?

  • Where can I get a CSV download of the stats so I can do my own analysis? Analyser misses a few important things … like time on ground for example.

    I’m considering Franklin in my mix of captains this week also. I reckon Magner will run with Mitchell whereas Buddy will roam around and maybe run amok. Also had Stanton in that mix until I read this. Good article and thanks.

  • top article!!

  • was gonna go Hays ‘c’ vs carl.
    after reading this article might have to go back to penn’s.
    even with the raines tag

  • Excellent article!

    Looking forward to future contributions, as well as the half-yearly review!