Calvin’s Captains – Rd. 7

Stan(mega)ton

How about that? Brent StanMEGAton might make him sound like a transformer but after a huge 193pts last week he can be anything he wants. He had a huge 32 kicks (39d), 17 marks, 8 tackles and 0.3 goals… and would have cracked the 200 mark if he’d kicked straight. But let’s not get too fussy! This week he plays the Eagles and he had 109 on them in his last game against them with a dirty 34 before that after he was subbed out at half time. Another great thing about this game is that it is at Etihad, the ground where Stanmegaton has averaged 154 there this year.

But the biggest question here is… Will Stanton be tagged? So far this year, Stanton has received a tag in two games from Harbrow and Marty Clarke where he only scored 93 and 77 points. In the other 4 games he has basically ran around by himself dominating big time averaging 159pts. This is a big difference from the average of 85 from the games when he received attention. Last week, Stanton had 36 uncontested possessions and 17 uncontested marks. So will be get someone on him this week? Ha ha, probably not. Last week McGinnity and Adam Selwood went to Brent Harvey (66pts) until Selwood broke his hand leaving McGinnity as the tagger. This week, surely he will go to Jobe Watson leaving Stanton free again. For the sake of Stanton and Stanton coaches, let’s hope so cause another big score might be on the cards.

We Hate it When it Raines

Yep, he’s back! Andrew Raines is back this week and will most likely go to Scott Pendlebury like he did last time these teams met back in Rd. 22 last year. That day, Raines held Pendles to just 94pts despite his 30d. Before Raines came onto the scene, Pendles had scores of 119, 129 and 135 on the Lions and if Raines goes to him, we need to be very careful as Raines has already claimed two other superstars of the competition recently in Ablett (97pts) and Selwood (69pts).

Which leaves Dane Swan to run-a-muck, like Stanton (193), Heppell (137) and Watson (134) did last week against the Lions, where they averaged 36d between them. If Swan avoids the Raines tag, he could be at his DT Pig best. Check this out… last week Stanton and Heppell combined for a massive 31 marks, 3o uncontested with Stanton claiming 17 uncontested himself. If Swan has room, he will be cashing in on this big time along with 35+ touches. Swan has had previous numbers of 119, 125 and 122 on Brisbane in his last 3 games (avg. 122) with that 125 occurring last time he was at the GABBA.

Which way will it go? History says it will rain on Pendles as he did a good job on him last time they met, but who knows!

Gazza Back?

Seriously? Who bloody knows. Let’s look at what might happen if the great man does return. Firstly, he hasn’t done much in the last 2 weeks. Resting and pushing out a few kilometres on the bike. He will be slightly under-done. But with that said… he has averaged 134 in his last 3 games this year and he only plays the GWS, a team he will smash. McDonald might have something to say about that though as he has been putting his hand up in recent weeks to tag the big guns of the competition. In the last few weeks he has had Marc Murphy (94), Griffen (124) and Scott Thompson (109). Although they have been pretty solid… we still have to give him some credit for the job he can do.

Last year, Gazza missed 4 games due to injury and the bye and no more than 1 game at a time. When he returned, it is safe to say that he did struggle a little. Check out his scores when he returned…

Rd. 2 = 96pts
Rd. 5 = 83pts
Rd. 10 = 92pts
Rd. 21 = 106pts

It’s so hard to say. If he does play you’d assume that the best player in the competition will carve up the worst team. After all, he does have a few Brownlow votes to catch up on.

My Other Crew

Marc Murphy – Usually gets the Clinton Jones tag, but now St Kilda have a new coach I’m hoping things are different. Mitchell had 112 (29d) on Jones last week and Marc had just 105 in his last against him which happened to be his highest score against them in his last 5.
Matthew Boyd – plays the Kangaroos and had 102 on them last year with 145 and 108 before that. He only had 94 last week, but he is at Etihad once again where he has averaged 119 this year.
Sam Mitchell – had 113 against the Demons last time he played them which was his highest score against them in his last 4 games. Last week, Geelong had 6×100+ scores on them which came from Stevie J, Duncan, Chappy, Pods, Enright and Corey. Not many guys there are pure midfielders in that group due to the tags the Demons put on through Magner and McKenzie. Flip the coin cause Cyril, Hodge and Mitchell are all in the mix to receive the tag once again. Sam does love the MCG though with an average of 120 there in his last 3 games.
Joel Selwood – He will return this week to play a team he had just 84 on last time he met them in a game where he wasn’t tagged. Sydney had 5×100+ on the Crows last week so you’d think he’d be ok over at AAMI Stadium where he has averaged 102 in his last 3 games there.
Tom Rockliff – Has had 123 and 104 in his last 2 games against the Pies and averages 111 at the GABBA this year. Although he only had 77 last week, he’ll be good as Griffen (149) and Cross (124) had no worries scoring against Collingwood last week.

Follow the Irish Pirate @CalvinDT

188 Comments

  • Awesome Calvin! I’ll be locking GAJ if he’s back, i have faith! Or Swanny if not.

    Question for anyone, help is appreciated…

    PAVLICH OR PEARCE?

  • WIll probably be popping the C on Swanny!, Cheers Calvin.

    A Bit Off Topic, but ,…..
    Any trades you guys suggest?!

    Team Looks Like:
    DEF: Goddard, Birchs, Lids, Gravy, Golby, Bugg, Ellis [Morris, Smedts]

    MID: Swan, Penduls, J.Selwood, S.Selwood, Rocky, NDS, [Shiel, Coniglio]

    RUCK: Jacobs, Giles [Redden, Big o]

    FWD: RObinson, Buddy, Sidey, Martin, Dangerfield, Treloar, Kennedy, [Pfieffer, Hall]

    Obviously looking to bring in the Horse, but any ideas, on other trades could bring in:
    Adcock
    Beams (Would be trading Nds…)
    and any other Defender [Getting rid off Golby]

    Any Ideas?!? Thoughts :D

    • These would be my suggestions. Forward rookies are a little worrying though so maybe
      Cogs >>> Horse
      Kennedy >>> Zaha ($ permitting)

      OR

      Cogs >>> Horse
      Golby >>> Shaw/Heppell/Enright (round 12 bye)

      • Wouldn’t quite be able to afford Zaha, the only way I thought off would be to:

        Shiel to Horlsey
        Coniglio to Zaha, then DPP Swap with Kennedy who will sit on my Mid Bench

        • Maybe 2 downgrades this week then.

          Cogs >> Horse
          Kennedy >> Adams

          Then next week try and fix a couple of areas.

          You are in a difficult situation now as there aren’t going to be that many more money making downgrades for a while. Shiel might need to stay. Midfield as a group looks strong with a few good uniques so wouldn’t change any of the big 6.

  • Just thought i should pull you up on something Calvin. GC didn’t play round 1 as they had the bye and you have round 2 down as a game that Gaj returned from injury in when it shouldn’t be there.

    • You are correct, however Ablett was under done (not a great preseason) last season and was under an injury cloud coming into the season thus why this game has been highlighted.

    • incorrect – it said “Last year, Gazza missed 4 games due to injury and the bye and no more than 1 game at a time. When he returned, it is safe to say that he did struggle a little. Check out his scores when he returned…

      “and bye”

  • M options based n my team and their average based on last 2 games against opposition
    Lids 90.5
    BJ 83.5
    Hepp 89
    Gilbert 90
    Duff 107
    Gravy 107
    Pendles 106.5
    Boyd 123
    Gibbs 121
    Sidey 76
    Beams 69
    Lewis 88
    Robbo 91
    Danger 70.5
    Whitey 45

    Ballsy wold be Gibbs.., but Boyd is the safe bet… I do like Beams though… His ave is affected by a 31 in 2010.

    Josh Kennedy average 110 against the tigers and ROK last 3 scores against them 125, 103, 106.

    Ziebell went mental last time he played dogs scoring 156, Petrie 146… Probably all amounts to nothing but just some random stats.

  • I cannot as yet afford Swan.. I’m on top of my league.. I like to take a midfielder as a Captain.. Ok so i have Boyd Stanton Mitchell Hayes Kennedy[Sydney] Horsley so what ya think

  • Only person i have on the list is gazza, murphy jelwood and scottyt didnt Make the cut!!!!

    • you dont have to pick from the list mate, choose who you think may get the most points

  • beams or chappy?

  • Dean Cox. You heard it here first! :D

  • Hey guys!

    Looking to get a fallen/rising premium for Aaron Hall, with a R12 bye under $400k, any suggestions? Zaharakis? Hawkins? O’Keefe? Something along those lines.

    PS: Great Article Calvin!

  • Townsend –> Heppel/Scottland

    or

    Hampton –> Chapman/Beams

    Got plenty of cash…. Or Magner –> Stanton… that would complete my mids and have Macca and Horsley on the beanch…… Stanton has got a good run coming up

    Thoughts, opinions, abuse, flirty comments welcome… the last one encouraged

  • just having a look at lewis, Mr Consistent, 89 86 86 101 91 90, how good is that, think i might bring him in for Kennedy this week

  • Magner – Horsley
    Kennedy – Zaharakis

    Would leave me with 17 trades, only 5k and only one round 11 bye forward (Treloar).

    Thoughts?

  • Ummm isn’t this “calvins captains” not “my team”?? where we talk about captains and stuff…

    • Yes, but it is also the heading post on DT Talk, where people come for advice on their teams…

  • Whats the ideal Midfield group taking into account the byes? I mean 3 rounds of byes with only 8 players in the mid creates some problems especially when I have no DPP linking with the midfield. Not sure what I should be doing.

    • The way I see it. You must have Ablett and Swan. I think personally that Boyd is a close third giving you an even spread over the byes. From there I would chose one from each other bye round. Giving you 2 premos each round. The configuration should be 2,3,3 meaning the player spare in r12 gets traded to r11 leaving you with a 3,2,3 then in r13 trade the last player to a r12 player leaving you with a 3,3,2

      This is of course if you were wanting your mids finished during the byes. My picks that I would want from each byr round are: Thompson rockliff for round 11. Selwood pendles Stanton from round 12. Murphy Mitchell from round 13. The rooks I wanted to keep on my bench are jmac/horse and some 85k player who will most likely be couch in the hope he will play plus the dpp.

  • was going to go

    Barlow – pendles

    and

    sheil – horse

    but now i think I will bring in adams for hampton instead of pendles. Should get easy win this week and looking to bring in more money… thoughts?

    • Much of a muchness between Adams and Hampton really. Barlow to Pendles is not a good move either.

      How about you just go Hampton to Horsley. 1 Trade and upgrade next week.

  • i guess i will be going swan then :) cheers calvin

  • How about Buddy for a bit of a gamble?

    Averaging 116 in his last 7 matches at the MCG and 105 in his last 3 against the Demons

    • would not be able to cope with the stress of buddy as captain. It will jinx him into doing something stupid and getting suspended for 4 weeks ; )

      • yeah,know what u mean…would definitely b a risk. im playing against top of the ladder team in my league so might risk it for the biscuit

      • yeah know what you mean…but i think he’s due to lift his game pretty soon…especially against the dees would be the perfect oppurtunity. unless rioli gets selfish again and bags another half dozen!!

        • I’ll go with him personally. Lifes too short to play it safe. 150 for Buddy this week

  • League convert here who started the year by picking the same team as Chuck Norris (he seemed solid at the time)

    Found my way to the below setup and not sure if now is the time to be conservative and hold the trades (20 left) or shaft magner and kennedy for Horsley & Taylor Adams.

    Any thoughts from you blokes who have done this much longer than me??

    Backs: Deledio, Goddard, Heppell, Birchall, Bugg,Hargrave, Golby (Morris, Ellis)
    Mids: Swan, J.Kennedy, Boyd, Thompson, Magner, Mcdonald (Shiel, C.Smith)
    Ruck: Cox, Giles (Stephenson, Redden)
    F’wds: Robinson, Sidebottom, Franklin, Dangerfield, Martin, D.Smith, A.Kennedy (Hall, Dickson)

    • Do the Magner>Horse trade but forget Adams (poor JS)

    • I reckon it is a solid base mate. It might be time to start upgrading a few.

      Magner >>> Horse
      Golby >>> Shaw (defender with round 12 bye)

      you will end up with some $ in the kitty for the next upgrade for the forward line.

  • Given that most of us have 3 GWS rookies in the mids, I am surprised that Magner is the omission of choice for Horsely. I would like to keep Magner for rd 11 and trade Shiel for Horsely.

    • I don’t classify JMac as a rook. He was a damn cheap sub-premo. He and Thommo are the blokes who will occupy the midfield pine in Round 11. Very likely JMac will be my 7th mid for a big chunk of the season, pending rests/role changes (like to assistant coach rather than player, for example).

      Magner and Shiel both have to go, and since they will both be gone by Round 11, their bye round is irrelevant to the decision of who to ditch first.

      Shiel has more potential to increase further in value imo.

      So Mags becomes Horsley

    • I’ll admit that Magner > Round 11 premo prior to Round 12 looks nice and neat and all, but there’s not a lot of flexibility in the strategy. If Mags doesn’t play in Round 11 for whatever reason, you’ve carried a bloke who isn’t making your 22 and probably isn’t making much cash for a month, for nothing. And he might be worth less then than he is now.

  • you’ve just gotta get on the horse this week mate! I would swap c.smith for him though, not the magnet.

  • I’m tossing up between Murphy, Boyd, Pendles, Jelwood and Watson. Cappy said Pendles but potentially has the Raines tag so thinking about Boyd/Murph. Anyone have any helpful info to guide me in one way or another?

  • I gotta admit – Franklin is looking like the captain of choice for me.
    He’s against the Dee’s – a team the Eagles forced into prostitution they got owned so bad.

    One thing I’ve learnt this year, is that the Dee’s just give up after you score heavy on them, and you can BANK on that. Their defence and midfield won’t be a match for the Hawks in any of the quarter’s and Buddy will no doubt get a shload of points.
    I’m bettin Franklin will have a big day out, report or no.

    Franklin gets the C for me.

    • I know I am bias, but they are improving so be very careful of classing the Dees as giving up bulk points each week.

      That said, I can’t see my boys losing by less than 50 let alone winning ;)

      Boyd will be my Captain of choice. He is due to bounce back. Ablett is being considered but just not confident that he will post a massive score

  • Nice work MR Calvin

    Swan = RVP = CAP

    Huu Haaa!!!

  • I’ve got Pendles, Murphy, Watson and Selwood (Franklin’s too inconsistent for me). I’m not choosing Pendles because of Raines, so it’s out of Watson, Murphy and Selwood.
    I reckon Murphy would want to bounce back from last week, but he has a bad record against Clint Jones.
    Selwood would be fresh from his game off last week but doesn’t have a great record against the Crows.
    Watson’s last 2 against West Coast have been: 75(injured in 3rd quarter) and 127(tagged by Adam Selwood).
    I think I’m going a slightly unique option in Watson, hopefully Calvin’s wrong and the tag goes to Stanton.

  • i posted this elsewhere but thought it might help out here

    im teaching stats at the moment and thought id have a look at a few DT related things,

    main thing i noted that Abletts average is the same as Stanton’s (134.5). So i thought i’d calculate their standard deviations as well (basically a measure of consistency) to split them (assuming you had neither or were choosing a captain from them).

    Ablett and Swans standard deviation was around 22 whilst Stantons was around 44. Basically its saying Stanton is twice as inconsistent as Swan and Ablett.Stanton is just as likely to score between 90 and 180 whilst Ablett is likely to score between 112 and 155. Just some food for though when picking a captain or upgrading.

  • Ziebell scored 155 against the Doggies in Rd 17 last year. Is it worth taking a punt on him for Captain this week? Has been poor since his 139 in Rd3….

  • What do you think of my team:

    David’s All Stars

    Round Score: 2020

    DEF: B Goddard , Deledio ,Birchall, Bugg, Clarke, Hargrave, Ellis, (Morris, Brown)

    MID:Pendlbury, Stanton, Murphy, Boyd, J, Selwood, Ebert (Shiel, Gibson)

    RUCK: Mcintosh ,Giles (Renouf, Stephenson)

    FWD: L Franklin, Tippett, Cloke, Martin, S D smith, A. Kennedy, Smedts,( Hall, Zorko)

    Bank: $194,000
    Trades this week: Mumford to renouf, Magner to stanton

    Feedback would be appreciated

    • DO NOT GET RENOUF
      Firstly he is a spud
      secondly, 270,000 is too much to have on the bench
      Maric or Cox if you want a starter are your best options maybe even Jacobs
      If you don’t want someone to start get Redden (will get games soon), Stephenson had one good score and very cheap or Longer

  • should i go murphy or pendlebury for captain this week, considering pendles could get the tag by raines? or should i put the C on buddy and hope that he destroys the dees…

  • Anyone else thinking of putting “The Horse” captain??

  • kennedy maybe?? reply?

  • went with Swanny as big c fingers crossed Raines goes to Pendles because i opponent has him as captain