The Numbers – Round 4: Carnage Round

Numbers… it’s what DT is all about. Price changes; averages; break-evens… the list goes on. We thought last round was Carnage Round, well that was until Friday rolled around. It didn’t take long for the DT Gods to smite its subjects (once again). With many coaches affected by injuries to Carazzo and Ablett (as captain); as well as late withdrawals Birchall and Fyfe, R4 was never going to be high scoring for the masses. But amongst the rubble, there were some interesting figures to emerge to be used in this very article.

Let’s have a looks at this week by the numbers…

2 – Sickening leg breaks on the weekend. After dominating the ‘highlights’ reel following their respective games, injuries to Gary Rohan (ankle) and Robbie Gray (knee) were horrific and not to be seen by the faint hearted. Thoughts go out to both young men as they look to spending the remainder of 2012 in recovery. Hopefully both are ready to return in 2013 full fit.

5 – Changes that Kevin Sheedy is likely to make for the upcoming match against the Bulldogs. We all knew it would happen, but now his plan of youth rotation is in full swing as we face the possibility of regulars Bugg, Hampton, Smith, Hombsch and Kennedy being rested. Fingers crossed for Bugg, Smith and Kennedy as they will be important covering injuries early in the season. Omission of any of these may see people take the easy option and downgrade to fellow cheapies Miles, Treloar or McDonald.

7 – Number of injuries to come out of the Carlton/Essendon match on Saturday afternoon. In what was looking more like a Warfield then an AFL field at times, players were falling down left, right and centre. Carlton copped the worst of it as Laidler hurt his knee, Curnow and Yarran battled through minor injuries and Carrazzo hurt his wing in the first quarter. The Bombers didn’t come through unscathed either as Hooker, Hurley and Hocking also sustained injuries of some kind during the tough, contested game.

17 – Amount of marks Bombers’ star Brent Stanton hoovered up on the weekend. In a game where he found space easier than Eddie McGuire found the headlines, he dominated the game after being allowed too much room around the stoppages.

20 – Number of teams that rule-breaking coach ‘johnnie’ has registered in DT. In what must surely be flagged to Virtual Sports, his team ‘UAE Falcons’ has 12 teams currently in the top 10,000 showing he’s trying his damned hardest to get the overall prize. He’s got a few teams right though, with 2 teams currently ranked inside the top 100 (5 & 56). I hope muppets like this are caught out and removed permanently from DT. Forever. Sure, some people have a team for their wife or kid, but 20? Really? Some people just have no sense.

21 – Points lost through Free Kicks Against by the one and only Buddy Franklin. I thought he might be able to stamp out that side of his game – but alas, he proved me wrong yet again. What could have been a respectable 97 points ended in a disappointing 76. We still love you Buddy but can you please cut that shit out?

37 – Combined total of behinds scored in the Eagles v Hawks game on Sunday. Seriously, has there been a game with a lower collective Goal/Behind ratio in recent history? The end score sheet looked like this: West Coast 5.21.51 d Hawthorn 5.16.46 in a low-scoring, rain-affected contest. It seemed to be a matter of fortune, not skill when a goal was actually scored as both teams will look to put the game behind them as an anomaly they’ll be looking to avoid happening again.

43 – Number of bolts rolling around in Melbourne Coach Mark Neeld’s head for him not to pick mature-aged rookie Tom Couch in the senior team. After flirting with us by naming him on an extended bench on Thursday, fans and DT coaches alike were left reeling once again as Neeld left him out of the final team that eventually went down to the Bulldogs on Sunday. Couch has been in scintillating form in the reserves, averaging well over 100 DT points. With Magner pretty much carrying the poor Demons team; surely it must be time for Neeld to throw in Couch to help out. I’m not one to buy into the ‘he’s too similar a player to Magner’ talk – if he’s good enough, he’s ready to play. If that means he’s played in a slightly different role, so be it – I don’t think he’ll care where he plays. And surely he can’t do any worse than what some of the Melbourne players are doing so far.

48 – Average score from players on debut in R4. Forgive me if I’ve forgotten anyone, but Miles (GWS – 89), Pfeiffer (POR – 76) and Crisp (BRL – 67) led the way for the first-gamers whilst the sub trend continued with several copping a green/red vest on debut as did Dell’OLIO (ESS – 43), Neale (FRE – 17) and Hill (HAW – 9). In what is a fair indication of what we should expect from our rookies, 48 is about par.

1430Average DT points scored per game by GWS as of Round 4, 2012. Compare this to the 1335 per game Gold Coast were averaging at this time last year; and the early signs are that the Giants appear to be a better team DT-wise, as their penchant for tackling and getting their hands on the ball adds value to their cash cows in 2012 (more so than the Suns in 2011).

149,963Number of coaches currently screaming FMDT following Gary Ablett’s knee injury after Andrew Raines collided with it in the Q-Clash on the weekend. Recent news has him out for 2-3 weeks, which means he’ll be warming the pine for a lot of coaches. Anyone that didn’t start with him will be able to make up valuable ground with over 50% of coaches having the little master.

Send me your ‘Numbers’ for the week @McRathDT

The Benchmark

This week lived up to its tag as the highest score of the round was far below regular expectations, where any score above 2100 would’ve put you close to the top. In the end though, Legacy coached by Robyn took the spoils as she tallied 2254 to be the top scorer of the round. She has a well-structured, balanced backline with Lids, God, Waters, Hanley and Hargrave all playing well. Her midfield of Ablett, Stanton, Boyd and Hayes did the job for her; whilst her ruck consists of Sandilands and Giles – which would’ve given her well over 200 points alone this week. An underperforming forward line with Buddy, Danger and Martin didn’t matter this week as she will happily take home the cash with a big smile on her face. If anyone managed to score above 2100 this week carrying Carrazzo, Rohan, Gray or Birchall/Fyfe – I’d like to know because that would be phenomenal.

Whore of the Week

The obvious choice for WotW in R4 would be Essendon midfielder Brent Stanton, who took advantage of Carazzo’s early demise to run free against Carlton to tally 36 touches, 17 marks and a goal – adding up to an amazing 175 points.

However in the interests of giving the gong to a different nominee each week (with a vote to be held at the end of the year for our Whore of the Year to be decided); the official Round 4 whore is none other than the young Lion, Tom Rockliff. His lazy 37 disposals and 2 goals in his side’s big win over the Gold Coast gave him a nice 143 points to keep his name near the top of the overall scoresheet for Season 2012. Starting to show why he was a preseason favourite early on, Rocky is hitting his straps and only just beginning his dominance in the centre square for Brisbane – he is a deadset star.

Coach’s Pet

This is the player who has attracted the largest attention (or close to) and subsequent selection in people’s teams around the grounds in any given week. After his R4 score of 85 against Adelaide; over 20,000 coaches have already picked up popular preseason DPP Adam Treloar (GWS – $104,200). With his price set to skyrocket next week, many are now taking the opportunity to ditch Clay Smith, Stephen Coniglio or Adam Kennedy for the young gun. Whilst each of these moves will only net you $50-100k, Treloar could turn into a handy F7 until some mid-season upgrading. Also, coaches are jumping on GWS veteran James McDonald and Beau Waters, who continued their run of form on the weekend with scores of 84 and 102 this week.

Value Pick

Based on a simple Dollars/Points ratio, I give you a simple way to display value (admittedly biased towards rookies given their low starting cost).

This week is a 3 way tie between GWS players James McDonald ($1175/pt), Adam Treloar ($1225.88/pt) and debutant Anthony Miles ($1170.79). All 3 scored in the 80’s in R4 to give their coaches great value for money; and a handy score if they were played on field. Expect to see these 3 in plenty more team in the coming weeks as coaches look to offload stagnating rookies or underperforming mid pricers.

(Worst) Trade of the Week

Anyone who was unlucky enough to trade in Andrew Carrazzo this week will be punching the wall as his score of 1 (and subsequent injury) resonated through the DT world on Saturday. Going into the game in red-hot form, you would’ve been right to get on him; however Lt. Injury struck and we won’t be seeing Carrotts for about 6 weeks now after his shoulder injury.

I’d also just like to dob myself in for a nomination as I got a little trade happy on Friday, unable to restrict myself from trading out Fyfe. My trade of Fyfe>Dangerfield (who was playing GWS) seemed to have a lot of upside; however ended up failing dismally as Danger went onto score a measily 66, with my emergency Hall (75) having a great game against the Lions. Long term I’m happy with it – but essentially I’ve wasted a trade and lost out on a handy 9 points. Meathead award nomination Warnie?

Made a bad trade and want to vent? Let me know on Twitter @McRathDT

The Round Up

Highlights – Pendles and Rocky pumping out huge scores; Hargrave single-handedly pulling me over the 2k line with his Q4 dominance; Old McDonald returning from suspension with a handy 84; Giles outscoring most premium rucks to once again top the ton; and Marty Clarke having his best game for Collingwood with a score of 95.

Lowlights – Ablett’s knee scare sent shutters through the DT world; whilst Gibbs’ ability to avoid the ball continues to frustrate his coaches (me included). You were lucky if you avoided Carrazzo’s score of 1 in the backline, whilst several underperforming guns have coaches fuming as they look to establish a positive start to 2012.

Team McRath – I continued my slow surge up the overall rankings with a reasonable 2016. 4/5 league wins was lucky as Hargrave truly saved my chops with his 4th quarter heroics. Lids and Clarke anchored the backline, whilst Pendles and Rocky raised the average of my midfield; and Giles dominated Jacobs in the ruck on my field and their game on the weekend. Buddy continued his failure in the wet, with Robbo and Sidey rescuing my forward line to help me to a solid R4 total. I’m still waiting for all of my stars to fire in what should act as a warning to opposition coaches – Team McRath has a lot of improvement to come.

Round 4 was one to forget; and luckily we don’t have long to wait for more action as the Pies and Bombers face off in another Anzac Day clash on Wednesday. Be wary of the Wednesday cut-off for the reversible trades; and keep an ear to the ground regarding injuries so you don’t waste any trades.

Feedback appreciated as always. Also – if you’re not already… follow me in the Twittersphere: @McRathDT

132 Comments

  • Is it worth it to get Barlow now for someone like Greene or Shiel because their BEs are still in the negatives. Also, who to get for Gray? Robinson or Sidebottom?

    • sidebottom more upside with collingwoods injuries… hold off on the trades just yet… wait at least another 50k and if u can wait til there near 300k so u can maximise there potential its only round 4 remember long way too go!

    • Barlows BE is about 50, so although that not high, his price shouldnt go up too much. On the other hand if Greene or Shiel is named they will likely go up much much more in value. So it comes down to this, do you need a premium in this week?

  • Conigilo –> Barlow
    Callinan –> Treloar

    Thoughts on this trade? would have 69k left.

  • nice article Mcrath. always a good read

    I just want to clarify something. i understand that we can’t reverse our trades after the partial lock out, but can we actually MAKE trades after the parial lock out? (that is, trades involving non essendon/collingwood players)

    cheers.

    • should be able to mate yeah

    • Yes you can make trades but you only get one shot at it.

      As soon as the confirm button is pressed its all over.

      So if you aren’t trading in anyone from Coll or Ess reverse those trades now and wait till Friday afternoon.

  • ablett trade for swan or pendles thoughts???

    • I’m keeping Ablett. Losing him for 2 weeks is a lot less costly than losing the trade. Trades will be like gold at the end of the season.

  • Thinking C already.

    Boyd v Giants
    Goddard v D’s. Might play in centre?
    Buddy v Swans?
    Lids v WCE. Scores well against them aparently.
    Selwood v Lions. Frikken Raines

    • raines won’t go to selwood. will get kerr/priddis for sure

    • Reckon
      Selwood vs Raines
      Boyd vs Old Mac
      Buddy vs Grundy/Richards
      Goddard – might be a goer if Magner goes to Hayes and McKenzie goes to Dal Santo
      Delidio prob will score fine as WCE will be looking at Martin and Cotch.

      Goddard, Delidio, Boyd would be my thinking.

      VC on Pendles/Swan/Stanton/Watson (depending who you have) with the loophole. 120+ means captain choice will become irrelevant because you will keep the VC score.

  • Math’s has never been my strong suit but Please someone help me out here… I have only 2 trades for this week but I have 3 injuries and 1 suspension HELP I so need a mathematician to work this one out

    Do I bench Ablett and get rid of Hurley & Carrazzo , remembering that Stevie J has been suspeneded as well , I have enoung in my mid to cover Ablett but my back and forward line are my worry ATM

    • deal with hurley and carrot….

      keep GAJ and stevie J

      • I was all set to bench Stevie for 1 week. But now he has gone and contested it, and (will wait and see, but) I think he will be gone for 2 weeks. This has almost exhausted my patience with him.

        Here’s my thinking. If he is gone for 2 weeks, not 1, I will:

        Stevie J > Treloar
        Magner > M Murphy (although this trade can wait a week)

        Thoughts?

  • who for mumford
    please answer this as sandi may be out and have no clue who i can go too.

  • Still getting over the carnage of r4 with Carrazzo, Ablett  and a bunch of grossly under performing hawks (the brown in hawks colours seems somewhat symbolic) but now to try and repair some of the damage.

    Ablett stays and Corrazzo goes but I can’t decide between Goddard and Deledio to bring in. Which one???

  • I had 2152 with Birchall and Fyfe