The Numbers – Round 2

Numbers… it’s what DT is all about. Price changes; averages; break-evens… the list goes on. After another intense round of football, things are finally starting to get back to normal. Buddy is kicking goals; Gary is racking up the touches; and Dream Team has well and truly returned. After a 4 day weekend, and a Monday game; the article is a little late this week. However it should be back to 6am Tuesdays from next week with a regular fixture back.

Let’s have a looks at this week by the numbers…

0 – Brownlow votes that Jimmy Bartel is likely to receive for his efforts on the weekend v Hawks. In an influential, well rounded performance by the Cats’ stalwart, Bartel gathered 20 touches, 7 marks, laid 8 tackles and kicked 2.0. All but proving he is the best wet weather player going around, Bartel’s efforts were enough for Bulldog’s coach Brendan McCartney to use as an example of what he wants his players to play like; however not enough to get the attention of the umpires it seems – has he fallen out of favour?

2 – Changes made by Kevin Sheedy from Week 1. Adam Tomlinson was the only player to be omitted, with McDonald (suspension) the only other change. After their demolition at the hands of North Melbourne this week, we can expect more than 2 changes this week with any number of Hampton, Townsend, Hombsch, Hoskin-Elliott, Wilson and Tyson possible outs. Keep an eye out for Team Lists on Thursday Night to check.

2.6 – Amount of teams (%) who jumped off Brian Lake in R1 after a terrible effort first up. After bouncing back to a positive 93 this week, there will no doubt be a lot of regretful coaches out there on Sunday morning. It is therefore hilarious to note that several teams have also jumped on Lake since his game on Saturday. I wonder if anyone did the dirty and got him back in after making the mistake to trade him out last week…

6 – Number of Giants I predict will be nominated for the NAB Rising Star in 2012. After Gold Coast netted 4 nominations in 2011, GWS will be out to show their list has talent in many contests that will be extremely one-sided. My predictions (early as they may be (excluding R2 nominee Jeremy Cameron) are: Stephen Coniglio, Toby Greene, Dylan Shiel, Devon Smith and Adam Kennedy.

15 – Total marks by Richmond captain, Chris Newman on the weekend. In a game where Richmond backmen reigned supreme, Newman was in the thick of it as he tallied 25 touches including 18 by foot. Also benefitting from the amount of ball in the Tigers’ back half was Deledio (140), Rance (138) and Houli (121).

17.8 – The total % of coaches who’ve already jumped on the Adam Kennedy bandwagon since the start of season. Now owned by more than 35% of coaches, he has been the single biggest inclusion since lockout, Round 1.

21 – Average age of the GWS Senior list (21 years, 116 days to be exact). Compare this two R1 and R2 opponents Sydney (24 years, 195 days) and North Melbourne (23 years, 182 days); and there is a considerable gulf in experience between the newcomers and the rest of the competition (barring Gold Coast). It’s no wonder then that they will likely be flogged more than a few times until they get some experience into their young list. These figures show that GWS and GCS should be competitive in approximately 2-3 years.

52 – % game time Michael Barlow had v the Swans on the weekend. After scoring 52 points in R1 (from 33% game time), he scored 63 points this week and has come out saying he’s ready for a full game next week against the Lions. Scoring at a rate around of 1.30 points/minute, Freo will be looking forward to him returning to full fitness. If he continues to score at the rate he has, he will absolutely dominate against Brisbane this weekend.

55 – Hitouts from the big 211 v Sydney on Saturday. Showing fantastic touch in the absence of Swan’s # 1 ruck Shane Mumford, Aaron Sandilands also amassed 18d, 5m and a Goal to be the top performing ruckman of the week.

95 – Average points scored per team in Round 2. Following up from R1’s 100 point average, 2012 is shaping up to be a year of high scoring, attacking affairs. If we compare this with the first 5 games of 2011 – the average score from each round was 88, 96, 86, 93, 94. This suggests 2012 should produce more goals – which will lead to happier fans.

208 – Current winning % for last year’s top 4 team West Coast. After big wins against the Bulldogs and Melbourne, fans will be enjoying the high scores from the Eagles. With games to come against GWS, Hawthorn, Richmond and North, West Coast may find themselves undefeated and with an insurmountable F&A % come Round 5-6.

Send me your ‘Numbers’ for the week @McRathDT

The Benchmark

The top score in R2 came from Bomber’s fan, AceFoulLegby.What? Whilst her team name isn’t great, she struck the right mix this week to come up with a huge 2406. With a very mid-price backline including Hargrave, Dempsey and Harry Taylor, her 5-Gun midfield did the hard yards with Ablett, Stanton, Mitchell, Pendles and Watson all killing it. The traditional ruck combo of Sandi and Cox came through in addition to her no fills forward line, which only has recognised gun Riewoldt to rely on. One would suggest that hher forward line may eventually fall apart with Monfries, Hurley, Porplyzia and Betts unlikely to become season long premiums; however as long as his mids and rucks keep performing well, this team name should be near the top for a while to come.

Whore of the Week

The bald-headed ball magnet has done it again – this time in a shellacking from a resurgent St Kilda. Gary Ablett Jnr gets the much vaunted title this week following his 40 disposal, 2.1 Goal game on the weekend. With many backing him as their captain for the week, he did not disappoint as he was once again everywhere. There are few players in the game that tagger Clint Jones hasn’t stopped – unfortunately for him though, Gary is one of those. Now penned by many as their walk up captain from now on, he has shown early that 2012 will be a big year for the little master.

Coach’s Pet

This is the player who has attracted the largest attention (or close to) and subsequent selection in people’s teams around the grounds in any given week. Still well behind Giant Adam Kennedy in the overall % change stakes, James Magner has enticed a further 2.6% of coaches so far this week to jump on board. With 7.8% of coaches getting him in since first lockout, the Magnet is now in over 41% of teams across the competition.

Value Pick

Based on a simple Dollars/Points ratio, I give you a simple way to display value (admittedly biased towards rookies given their low starting cost).

Once again, I can’t go past rookie gun James Magner here. After backing up his 103 from R1, he scored a further 106 points in R2. This gives him a ridiculous weekly value of $809.43/pt. It has been said to death; and the talk will only become more regular, but James Magner in this year’s Michael Barlow. As was last year’s Ed Curnow, Magner is the must have mature aged rookie of 2012. Toby Greene also deserves a mention here after bettering his R1 score of 99 to record an excellent 107 points. With Shiel, Smith and company producing lower numbers in the first two rounds; coaches must now decide whether it’s worth an early trade to get in Greene/Magner in their place. My suggestion to this would be – get them in, or miss out!

Waste of Space

Mitch Golby has now become the bone of contention for many coaches after his terrible effort in Round Two against Carlton. Now seemingly consigned to a lock down role in the backline, Trollby only managed 10 touches and 3 marks in a lacklustre game that is sure to put him on the chopping block. Whilst many Lions underperformed in a game dominated by Blues’ possessions, we should expect more from someone who showed a heap of potential in the preseason. Given his price, he shouldn’t fluctuate too much in value; however if he doesn’t show us something in the next week or 2, he will find himself out of a lot of teams.

The Round Up

Highlights – Carlton sitting # 2 on the table after watching them smash the Lions at the Gabba; God, Lids and Gary pushing into the 140’s; Giles and Magner ton-ing it up; and Morris and Ellis sparing themselves the axe by redeeming themselves in a game where Richmond stuck it to the Pies.

Lowlights – R1 heroes falling from grace in R2 (Adcock, Rocky); negative roles screwing us over again (Broughton, Golby); and Buddy failing in a wet 2nd half on Monday afternoon.

Team McRath – A dark, dark day in our history as several POD’s let me down to post a paltry 2003 and slip down the rankings dramatically. Broughton is definitely gone, whilst Golby isn’t far behind. I’ll need Rocky, Gibbs and Adcock to bounce back if I’m to get my season back on track. I’ll try to remain optimistic this early in the year – after all, a week is a long time in Dream Team.

Round 2 was generally higher than last week, however many coaches will feel let down after some big guns failed to fire. With a Friday game back on this week, we only have to wait a few days for footy action to be back on our TV screens. Good luck for the week ahead and be careful with your trades.

Feedback appreciated as always. Also – if you’re not already… follow me in the Twittersphere: @McRathDT

352 Comments

  • Hi all,

    Please help me by letting me know if my trade plans sound crazy or not.

    Just so you know my main strategy over the years has been to make as much cash as possible early in the season so at this early stage I’m not thinking of the byes, however I need help in regards to peoples thoughts on certain players.

    Option 1: Broughton out – Hargrave In / Dickson out – Porps or Walker In

    Option 2: Bring current mids Fyfe and Devo Smith into the forward line and trade:

    Dickson out – McDonald In / Aaron Hall out – Greene In

    Option 3: Broughton out – Birchall or Waters In / McDonald or Greene In (with approx. 80-120K profit)

    My current mids are Ablett, Swan, Boyd, Hayes, Fyfe, Magnet – Devo, Shiel and;
    My current fwds are Chapman, Franklin, Goodes, Martin, Dangerman, Kennedy, Cameron – Dick, Hall

    Not sure whether to hold onto Broughton. I like the idea that he may become a differential with most people looking to unload him, but will he come good?

    Can McDonald and Greene maintain their consistency and is their spot in the team secure?

    Is it too risky (and delusional) playing two rookies in my mids and expect 100+ points per week from them?

    These are the questions I’m struggling with so your thoughts would be very much appreciated. Thanks in advance.

    • Option 3 looks the best.

      Broughton is one of those players where he will get a 60 but then come out and get 130. He you want a high ceiling score stick with Brouhton but you wont get consistency.

      McDonald will only play around 14 games this year as he is a coach first.

      You should expect around 70-80 for your rookie mids with a couple of hundreds.

  • Who is this Johnson bloke that is popping up now

  • Heath shaw dilemma, in 2 minds about trading, sitting 1212 overall and could possibly aquire goddard through 2 trades.. Thoughts? Cheers

    • Never been a fan of Shaw, St Kilda look to Goddard as much as possible as he is such a good user of the ball.

    • You are sitting pretty with Shaw. It is appearing he is becoming more unique by the day. Keep him. His scores will only improve and if he hits a purple patch you will be looking set for a big year.

      You will be able to acquire Goddard soon enough if you have the right rookies. Getting on Goddard now after the Gold Coast game is like shutting the gate after the horse has bolted. His price wont change too much and with one bad game will drop nicely. That would have been the theory at the start of the year so stick to your guns.

  • Which one should i trade out: Golby or Broughton.

    Should i trade Coniglio to Watson?

    • I wouldn’t trade either Broughton or Golby. Both might have big games this week.

      People need to be patient. Things ebb and flow. Also remember that this year more than any other general soreness will play an enormous factor. GWS are full of kids. GC don’t look like they have improved much. Even the big names might get a week off every now and then.

      • Goldby is playing lockdown tho, Voss trolled us by letting him roam free in the pre season.

        • His next 2 opponents don’t have anyone really to lock down on so I am hoping he might prove to Vossy that he can get the ball and use it better than some of the others.

          Hoping really….

  • This really pains me to do so as I traded Hargrave out for Trollby with about 30 minutes remaining until lockout a few weeks ago, but should I got back to Hargrave?

    • Depends if you think Hargrave can consistently 80-90 and if he is a keeper or not.

      • Personally I think he can. Also considering Lake.

        • Do it this week if you think you made a mistake and you don’t need to get on any of the rookies on the bubble.

  • 1. Broughton>Birchall
    Conigilio>Greene

    or

    2. Broughton>Carazzo
    Conigilio>Greene

    Thoughts?

    • Do you have 2 or more other Richmond players in your backline?

      Carlton, Hawks, Richmond and Saints all have byes in the same round so be wary of that.

    • Option 1has more consistency. Why not keep coniglio until he peaks

    • Birchall

      Also will greene be on the field or bench? If bench i would give coniglio a chance, its still early days. If hes on the field then trade

    • Carrazo is performing way better

  • My Team

    Goddard, Deledio, Birchall, Waters, Hargrave, Bugg, Clarke, K Hunt, Ellis

    Ablett, pendles, Mitchell,Selwood, Magner, Shiel, C Smith, Coniglio

    McEvoy, Giles, Redden, Stephenson

    Fyfe, Franklin, A Kennedy, M Robinson,Sidebottem, D Martin, D Smith, Porplyzia, Smedts.

    Should I trade this week or just leave my team as it is.

    Maybe Shiel/Coniglio/Smith to Green?
    Is there anything I can do to improve my rucks i.e Stephenson?
    At this stage I am thinking of holding onto Karmichael but does anyone have a trade they think is worthwhile.

    I am leaning towards not making any trades. Does anyone think this is a bad or good idea??

    Thanks

    • Ur team looks fine exept K Hunt Switch him for J Geary, and it is also worthwhile to get out Shiel for Green.

      Otherwise ur team is good 2 go.

      :)

  • I will never take the C off you ever again Gary. Was I stupid to think Jones would slow him down.

  • Howz my team?

    Deledio, Carrazo, Waters, Suckling, Hargrave, Geary, Ellis, (Golby, Bugg)

    Ablett, Boyd, Palmer, Magner, Green, Caddy, (Coniglio, Smith)

    Mumford, Giles, (Redden, McCauley)

    Beams, Goodes, Fyfe, Martin, C Cornes, Porps, Kennedy, (Hale, Dickson)

    I have one trade left what should i use it on?

    I regret picking Hale never ever rely depentantly on just Nab cup scores.

    I’m trying keep McCauley and Palmer since i think Palmer will exell in GWS just like Ward is. And McCauley is a cheaper and more unique option rather than I Maric.

    • Mids are pretty weak.

      What did you score last week?

      C Cornes, nice.

      • 2,148

      • And how r my Mids weak Caddy got 70 which is pretty good for a $249,300 player, Kennedy got 107 and Magner got 106. Boyd had 125, and Gazza as my capt did very well with 143 (286). The only let down was Palmer but he will come good like Ward

    • how much money you got?

      what was the first trade you made?

      ….maybe Hale to D. Smith if that is C. Smith in the mids

  • I would reverse that trade for a couple of reasons.

    Firstly, Maric is number one ruck at the Tigers. McCauley was on the rookie list and got a crack due to Bailey being injured. Both are playing alright football.

    Secondly, did you see the Hawks game? Hale and Roughead spent time in the rucks. It will only take one bad week from McCauley for him to get dropped and the Hawks to start with Hale as number one ruck.

    To make that trade and gain less than $100,000 out it seems crazy if you look at the job security you lose with it.

    Are you really going to start Golby on the bench? If so, why not downgrade to Clarke and get over $100,000 then upgrade Hale to a Zaha or Robbo? That would make more sense to me.

  • For this week do i put in redden or Giles

    • Good question i was gonna ask that my self. I am really not sure they say that Brogan will get top spot and giles wont do well against Natinui and Cox but then Redden isnt that good himself only getting scores probable 40’s 50’s 60’s.

      But I’m not using the 1 Prem 3 Rook Ruck strategy im using my:

      1 Premium, 1 Mid-Priced, 2 Rookie Ruck structure

      Mumford, Mcauley, Giles, Redden

      I’m using Mummford and McCauley
      Although other may use Ivan Maric instead.

      To me McCauley is cheaper and more unique for me.

      • You have Mumford and Maric so why would you care if Giles wont score well this week…..

        You currently have 1 prem, 1 mid and 2 rook in Mumford, Maric, Giles and Redden
        You will still have the same set up if you bring in McCauley. Yes he is cheaper by about $50,000.
        Both are unique. It took balls to pick Maric from the start and now you are going to cash him in for nothing and for no reason. Best of luck with that….

        • Meanwhile you are replying to a totally different post that you think was written in response to your previous post and I am replying to your post….

      • Sheedy has said the Izzy may ruck against NicNat this weekend so Brogan may not necessarily be picked.

  • Right. in need of help here. Wanting to bring in Greene, Milera and Hargrave but can only do 2 this week. players i would condsider to trade out for them would be winderlich, pfieffer (or maybe not since he hasnt been named yet), Barlow, C Smith or D Shiel from midfield, and L Spurr from defence. have 81k in the bank atm. currently leaning towards Barlow > greene & winderlich>milera which will give me 500k. Thoughts???

    • no no no!!!! keep barlow in his first game he only played 1/3 of the game and scored good and las week only played 1/2 the game

  • Hey Guys! Great Article McRath as always!

    So, after being burnt by Gibbs last week, he was playing as a loose defender in the backline, but im not sure if things are going to get much better against Collingwood, and his low score from last week will be in the calculations for the next couple of weeks. He is currently at the M5, I plan was to do a side-way trade to S.Selwood (I Know a Side-Way Trade…), but Selwood is looking to be a very nice point of difference and is ‘punching above his weight, Thanks to Rainman’.
    I Could wait a week to see how Gibbs fairs against the Pies, but Scotty Selwood is up against GWS, which means a massive score for him and the Eagles. This also allows me to trade Broughton to Goddard/Carazzo, (I know, I Know i was one of the stupid few who didn’t start with him, big mistake), And Selwood is also very consistent and even with the Defensive Tagging roles, he makes up points with piles of +4’s from Tackles,

    So anyway, some one talk some sense into me? Any Thoughts? :D

    • ?

    • I agree that Selwood will continue at his current scoring rate, but you shouldn’t be trading to gain a big score straight sway. Trust your guns, it was a one off game for Gibbs, he’ll smash it

      • Cheers, Your Right, But if Gibbs goes missing again and finds himself not scoring this week, he may turn straightinto Selwood

  • My Team

    Goddard, Waters, Duffield, Hanley, Hargrave, Bugg, Ellis (Clarke, Smedts)

    Ablett, Selwood, Magner, Boyd, Deledio, Greene (Smith, Shiel)

    Mumford, Giles (Redden, Stephenson)

    Fyfe, Franklin, A Kennedy, M Robinson,Sidebottem, D Martin, Porplyzia (Tomlinson, Roahn)

    Have $190,00 left over with no trades left this week as I traded out Coniglio for Greene and swung Deledio into the midfield by getting rid of Gibbs and putting Goddard into my backline. Was it worth trading out Gibbs for Goddard or should I reverse this and wait it out a few more weeks?

    • it was good

      • Don’t give people bad advice Patrick. No, it was probably not the greatest of trades and if I were you, I’d reverse it. Gibbs has had one bad game and people or already writing him off, did you forget his round one game? Trading a premium for another premium in round two is just plain stupid. Goddard has played 2 of the 3 easiest teams in the competition, and in one of these he failed to crack the 100… Just trust yourself and your players, don’t waste a trade

        • +1

          Great advice!

          I know who I would be listening to. Hit that button mate and look for other options. Gibbs is a superstar who has had a bad DT scoring game.

        • Port < GWS, GC and Melboring

  • i have Swan, pendles, mitchell, boyd, ablett and magner in midfield!!! mid scored 855 leaving me with a total score of 2213 not my best effort thinking of getting rid of suckling for deledio and rid of hale for waite!!! if i did that last week would of got 2384!!!

    • Well is Waite going to kick 5 goals every week? Of course not. Also, trading Suckling to Deledio in search of a big score that happened last week is utter madness. Do not make either of those trades if you’re serious.

      As Genghis would say, simply baffling

  • Just want you opinion on these options for this weekend

    Greene or Coniglio

    Giles or Redden

    • There are no reasons suggesting Greene should score any less than he’s been doing so start him.

      If Mumford is named against Redden, I would personally go Giles. Although he’s coming up against the best ruck duo in the game (Cox/NicNat), I believe that he could still notch up 80+ IMO, Worsfold will rest Cox up forward rather than play him in the ruck, leaving Giles to battle it out with NicNat. Of course, all of this is specualtion, but you have to go with what you know. Giles has scored 77 & 104, Redden has scored 68 & 48. Who’s scored higher?

  • Hey Guys,

    I’m thinking of going Broughton and Neale to Marty Clarke and the Chad. Leaves me with some cash, which I plan to get Bugg/Townsend up to Heater when he bottoms out in a few weeks.

    Too risky?

  • not sure what to do?
    shaw to goddard and congilio to greene
    or
    shaw to bower and conigilo to watson

    • stay away from Bower, there are better options

      i like most will be picking greene up for the money this week

      oh &

      Sandi or Ryder

      Had both in previous years, but both can have their issues

  • Should I jump on the Waters wagon and have zero cash or go Hargrave (already have Lake) and have 111k in the kitty?

    Im ditching Golby…

    Will either be keepers? All 3 have the round 11 bye.