The Numbers – NAB Round 3

Numbers… it’s what DT is all about. Price changes; averages; break-evens… the list goes on. Once again, I’ve stripped the records clean and scoured the AFL for some numbers different to those we spend our days staring at… Staring at in the hope that one day we’ll all of sudden have a magic epiphany; and all of the secrets of the DT Universe will be revealed.

Let’s have a looks at this week by the numbers…

6.0 – goals kicked by Hawks ruck/forward, David Hale v Melbourne. In a promising display, he also earned 17 hitouts on his way to 107 points in a close to best a field performance. At a tempting $342,800, he could be a steal if he can hold the # 1 ruck spot in 2012.

11 – days until the opening bounce of the AFL season

13 – the final margin in the Giant’s inaugural win against the Suns on the weekend. In what would be a proud day for the club, their players showed more enthusiasm in their efforts and came away the better side.

17 – the date in May of troubled Demons’ livewire Liam Jarrah’s court date after he was caught wielding a machete during a brawl in the Northern Territory last Wednesday night.

27 – hitouts accumulated by North ruckman Todd Goldstein. In what may be the best indication of Brad Scott’s plans yet, HMac was subbed out of the game after scoring a decent (if not unspectacular) 24 – which included a few hitouts and a singular goal.

38.5 – losing % by Carlton in what was their 4th consecutive preseason loss.

129 – DT points that evergreen Lions’ veteran Simon Black scored v Carlton.

376 – days until we’ll see young stars Brad Crouch (Adelaide) and Jaeger O’Meara (Gold Coast) make their AFL debuts. There’s my 2013 DT midfield bench right there!

914 – the total DT points scored by the Melbourne Demons v the Hawks on Saturday. Compare this to Hawthorn’s 1594 points and you can see how big the gap between the two sides really was.

63,000 – coaches who held their breath as Swans veteran Adam Goodes was slammed into the behind post in his game v Essendon the weekend. Thankfully he got back up (as champions do) and progressed to have a solid game, one they unfortunately lost by 2 points.

 

DT Whore of the Week

In what proved to be the highest individual score of the round, young Lion Jack Redden demolished Carlton with his 29d, 132 point game; including an impressive 9 tackles. He outscored fellow guns Simon Black and Tom Rockliff to hand the Blues yet another loss.

 

Value Pick

Based on a simple Dollars/Points ratio, I give you a simple way to display value (admittedly biased towards rookies due to their low starting cost).

In a week where there were plenty of low (DT) scoring games, there were few rookie delights. It’s of no surprise then to see another GWS rookie make the grade on our value scale. Early preseason popular rookie Anthony Miles scored a promising 99 points this weekend against the Suns, giving him a weekly cost of $1053 per point. This will be music to the ears of coaches, who have been waiting to see the young ball magnet in action. With another performance like that, he’ll be a lock on my midfield bench (or even on field).

 

Waste of Space

Admittedly not the best DT prospect anyway, Melbourne recruit James Sellar was hardly spotted in his team’s shellacking at the hands of Hawthorn. The big man never really made an impact with his 4d, 10 DT point game. An argument could be made here for the entire Demons team to be listed as not one player gathered more than 18 touches in what was a very one sided game.

 

From the Clouds

This player has come from nowhere and has rocketed into calculations for many coaches’ R1 teams. The last two weeks has seen Port ruckman Jarrad Redden step into the spotlight as a viable option for the Power’s ruck division. Whilst still realistically behind Renouf and Lobbe in the order, he could be a surprise R1 bolter if his form continues. With Lobbe injured for the meantime; and Renouf nowhere to be seen, we could be seeing a lot more of this kid sooner than many would have thought.

 

Closing Thoughts…

The talk of the town this week is around high possession game plans. Whilst Hawthorn showed they’re still prone to a little ball hogging, the Bulldogs appear to be following the same model in 2012 under new coach Brendan McCartney. This can only translate to higher DT scores – so get on the Hawks and Doggies this year!

I would also like to take a moment to vent my frustration to the DT gods. In almost identical fashion to this time last year, we have seen two rookie guns who were absolutely Monty’s for a R1 berth taken by injury just weeks out from the opening bounce. In 2011 it was Mzungu and Callinan – in 2012 its Freo sensation Lachie Neale and Demon magnet, James Magner. The hope will now be that they hold off their debut until mid-season (like Mzungu and Callinan did last year) in order to give us 2 excellent midseason downgrades.

To end on a brighter note, this weekend will see Adelaide face off against West Coast in the NAB Cup decider. Both teams have won every game they’ve played and will be hopeful of taking their preseason form into their respective R1 openers.

 

Cheers for reading and as always, thoughts and feedback appreciated.

FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER: @McRathDT

56 Comments

  • First?

  • #1 Cant wait till the real season…. Caaarn the Swannies!!!!!!!

  • 0.0 – Carlton’s score in the second half against Brisbane. I think they’re taking the piss.

  • Cheers Mcrath! Good read and always interesting to go over a few of these numbers!

  • Thanks McRath, great article, I look forward to them and love your work.
    I think GWS will at least be competitive this year,and I will wager a few bucks when they play bottom 4-6 sides on the ladder.

  • Good post McRathDT

  • Slight Hawk likes this article
    He finds it quite interesting to read.
    His favourite part is the numbers, coz that’s the name of the article.

    Kind Regards,

    T̶h̶e̶ ̶U̶n̶e̶m̶p̶l̶o̶y̶e̶d̶
    Slight Hawk

  • Loving the numbers again McRath! The best one of course has to be 11 – days until the opening bounce of the AFL season. Cant wait!

  • Nice numbers and this sought of article just breaks up the norm….By the way Crows by 17pts.

  • any swans supporters who finished in the top half join my league!!!
    576458

    • Thanks Jeremy, Swannies supporter who won my league and finished 1282 o/l kast year – I’m in. Cheers Nick

  • Brad Crouch and nick o’brien finished year 12 at my school last year Brad is a freak of nature and nick is a promersing CHF for essendon

  • A lot of talk about the Carlton loss on the weekend,

    Missing players – Marc Murphy, Bryce Gibbs, Eddie Betts, Heath Scotland and Michael Jamison

    How seriously are they (then again most of the teams) taking pre-season????

    Come on AFL start the season 4 weeks earlier – NRL has already started

    • WHAT!!!……and miss out on 4 weeks of sledging, getting sledged, reading at least 20 awesome pre-season articals about strategies, who’s hot or not and SWOOPING the skunk thing ……….GET REAL……..
      Pfffftt……….the nerve of some people……….

  • More Dream Team Leagues!

    Dreaming Teamers: 595995 (Best number ever!?)

    Preferably people living in NSW/ACT, other those in their breakout 3rd DT Year..!

    • Just joined I’m in nsw and this is my third year at dt, I finished 17000 last year so hoping for the third year break out!!!! Good idea for a league by the way.

  • When’s the Champion Data Rave out for round three of the NAB Cup?

    • Mid to late Wednesday arvo… however, from memory, it is usually Thursdays when it’s a long weekend.

      • So, my question is what day/time are you suggesting/hoping your show air on Fox Footy?

  • I’m still gong to have Sellar on my backline bench , so that when I cash in on Jarrad Redden once Lobbe/Renouf return, I can move Sellar onto my ruck bench and then upgrade to a primo backman with the Redden cash.

    • Leave the Sellar dweller alone.
      He was a dud at crow land and not much has changed.
      You will make buckets of cash off any of the GWS lads and bugger all off Sellar.
      But your team dood.
      Good luck

    • that’s a mighty fine idea. as long as your rookie rucks score much better than an alternative backman and preseason says there aren’t that many good rookie backs worth banking everything on… sellar is not a cheap option tho so u gotta get a fair difference in scoring, could be worth the gamble

  • Ooh, Aah ! Gems, McRath. Ooh Aah Gems, McRath !

  • Great writeup – was really nervous when goodes hit the goal post.

    On another note can anyone please tell me how to join dreamteam pro? I already have assistant coach.

  • Great article as usual mate.

    Some more numbers
    8- what the Blues are paying for the flag, can’t believe their NAB cup tanking hasn’t pushed them out more
    13- the number of days that I went without making a change to my team
    27- the number of trades and changes that it took to fit Cox in and remove Lachie Neale
    57- the number of bottles of red that will keep me company this season
    250-1 the odds of my current strategy getting me the FJ

    Oh well time for a red, bet on the blues, do some team changes and change my strategy!

  • should i risk it with Hmac after the goldstein was dominant and Hmac was subed

    • I reckon the only recent mid priced ruck is Minson

      • please, if you are going to comment about people get your facts straight…. HMAC was off early in the first after a heavy knock and spent 20 min off the ground being checked for concussion… then came back on kicked a goal did some ruck work and was subbed… HMAC is the only mid pricer… Minson is the biggest oaf to walk the earth, that kid wouldn’t realise if the ball hit him in the head… i like my players to atleast be alert to what the siren actually means…

  • Good job mate,

    Also little bit on the Adelaide news about Renouf at port complaining of knee soreness and may be in doubt for round 1. Along with the lobbe injury, redden could well be number 1 ruck for round 1

  • Great write up McRath; always good quality

    Btw, any west coast fans out there join up to my league, code is 424537
    Go the mighty Eagles this weekend!!!!

  • I’ve got some more numbers for ya
    1 – The place I will finish in DT this year :D (just kidding more like 10000)
    8 – A place the over rated Crows will finish below this season
    45 – My prediction on how many points WCE will beat the crows by this weekend
    2286 – My projected round 1 score
    10 – A place ill finish in my DT Pro league (Forgot the DRAFT!)

    • How are they over rated? There just looking like a young improved outfit with alot of promise.
      But then I noticed your a Port supporter so your opinion cannot be taken to seriously!
      Now SILENCE!

  • what a great write up McRath. Definitely something to think about. Sometimes just looking at averages and disposals takes precedence but this shows you should widen your scope.