Starting Swan?

Are You Starting Swan?

This is the $596,700 dollar question.

Will you be starting Dane Swan this year or rolling with someone else.

Why you should start with him…

It’s Dane Swan for god’s sake.
He has been the premium of premiums and will average 120+ again this year.
He doesn’t always get tagged (Pendles, Daisy are contenders each week too).
Although if you don’t start him and you ‘plan’ to get him later, you might not be able to due to his price being too high or your team might get other issues/injuries that you need to patch up.
If he does start on fire… you are going to miss out on so many points, especially if he is your captain. Arggg me hearties.

Why you should pick him after the bye/Arizona trip

He knows he’s going to have a mid-season break and will be ‘lazy’ leading up to it.
He averaged just 87 in the 6 weeks leading up to Arizona and 128 in his 11 home and away games when he returned.
He won’t play all games this year because of this ‘break’ and may miss a minimum 2.

After weighing up the options, let’s see what the DT Talk professionals have to say:

WARNIE: I’m torn. Of course I want him, but I think that he will be better to get after the mid-season break. It will hurt so much not having him from the get go and watching those 130s go past me, but I’m quite happy with the upside I have in my ‘premium’ mids I currently have. I don’t know. My mind will change multiple times up until lockout, but at this stage… no Swan for me (probably until tomorrow’s team update).
ROY:
At this stage I don’t have him, but there is every chance he will be back. When he is in the team I am happy having 2 Mid rookies on my ground, but when he is not sitting there I feel the need to over compensate for the points I will be missing out on and run with 5 premiumsI will have him at some stage and am disgusted in myself that he is not currently there, in fact I might change it before I go to bed because I’m not sure I can sleep knowing he is not on my team. What if I have a massive kip and miss lockout?! OK, he is back in. I hope this helped……
CALVIN: Currently locked. Not only is he a go to captain, you need him in the early stages of the year… regardless of the trip coming up. My biggest issue here is, we all have great plans of what we want to do throughout the year… but occasionally it just doesn’t happen as injuries etc screw them up.
TBETTA: He’s currently in my side, but by no means a lock. Unfortunately, I am pretty convinced that he’ll have a game or two off this year, which makes prospects like Boyd (who’ll never take a game off) all that more convincing. Ultimately though, I think Swan will end up being in the top 6 Mids by aggregate score, and their pre-bye fixture is favourable, especially compared to their post-bye fixture (see here for more info). For this reason, Collingwood’s players are some of the worst to upgrade to, so it’s all or nothing for me – I’ll be starting Swan at this stage.
CHOOK:
None of my players are locked just yet, especially my premiums (don’t have much time left for the top-dollar dawgs with all the rookie watching that goes on at my coop). But, at the the moment, it’s Pendlebury – not Swan – in the number-one midfield spot in my Merv Gray Autos squad. Lightning does strike twice, sometimes, and I’m hoping Swan has another underwhelming start to the season so I can add him to the Autos at a decent price after Collingwood’s mid-season bye, just like last year. Maybe he’ll be a straight swap for James Magner? A man can hope.

So with all that in mind… what will you be doing with Dane Swan this year and if you are going with someone else… who?

Are you starting with Dane Swan?

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198 Comments

  • I’m currently without Swan purely based on the fact that he is worth nearly 600 thous.

    It’s a hard call though. No doubt he will smash it in the early rounds like he did last year. It’s probably a 50 / 50 decision still for me.

    I did learn last year, in my first year of DT, that it is critical to have the absolute premium players in your side even if it means spending that bit extra.

    I suppose if Swan doesnt start that well and you didnt pick him, the decision has come off cause he’ll fall a fair bit in price.

    If he does start well and you havent selected him then you probably miss out on league wins.

    You would have to say the odds are he’ll start well though. Bloody tough call. I’ll leave this decision till the death knock.

    League no. 179120 if anybody is interested :-)

    • Im in yr League now Tormentor, Juggernaught is me :)

      I just made another league if anyone interested 269254

  • Swan is killing me, he has been in out of my team every other day and afraid to say this hasn’t helped :)

  • Typically players ‘peak’ at 28 yrs old. Im too scared of the consequences if I do not get him!

    • That might not necessarily translate into better DT scores, could just mean his disposals are more efficient – which means nothing in DT.

  • I’m taking Pendles over Swan because I personally believe that Pendles can equal or even overtake Swan as the best premium

  • Going to be choosing both, Pendles could score just as well so i won’t be missing out on his scores. Rather Swan and Pendles from any other players from the same bye.

  • is this a good team ? im new.

    DEF: Goddard, Shaw, Enright, Scotland, Birchal, Suckling, Broughton (Carrazo, Heppel)

    MID: Shaw, GAJ, Jelwood, Boyd, Pendels, Redden, Rockliff (Thompson, Murphy)

    FWD: Franklin, Cloke, Fyfe, Stevie J, Sidearse, Martin, Goodes (Chappy, Martin Bryant)

    Ruck: Sandilands, Cox (McEvoy, Mumford)

    I tried to fit more premium 98 in but I ran out of coin… I still have $58,700 in the bank… any suggestions that won’t hurt my feelings?

  • Great site guys, im just a little put off by the sight of your mugs… seriously, could you get an uglier bunch of mings on a web banner?? maybe consider a change… lara bingle would be a good start.

    Dude with the Boags has obviously seen a penis he likes, middle wanksta looks like he’s never touched a footy in his life, and whats with the fuck stick on the end with the ‘westside’ pose? would look more at home with a half eaten pie around his face.. Oh and because Im now finished wasting my time on this shit, real blokes play footy.. I mean im 17 and will be playing TAC this year but I guess the people that have time for this shit are just shit at life..

    P.S stop interviewing mates of mine, they dont give a fuck about dreamteam or supercoach or other lameo topics that boys with vaginas waste their lives in front of.

    lick my scrotes

  • People talk about “locks” each season.
    Yet the biggest lock each DT pre season is people talking themselves out of starting with Swan because hes “too expensive” and “I’ll trade him in when he gets cheaper”.

    I for one am glad that so many people plan on starting without Swan, since it makes beating them so much easier *thumbs up*

    To all those who are trying to convince people to start with him……shut the hell up!! Let stupid people make their stupid decisions…..all it does is make things easier for the rest of us.

  • Swan is locked in for me. Yeah he will go to Arizona, big deal.

    I know it breaks one of the rules of DT but If you want to win the car/league you have to sideways trade premiums a couple of times through the year. Nobody wants too but thats reality. Just trade another gun mid in then save one of the planned upgrades to get him in after the bye/arizona. Might cost you one trade extra. But the points over the season will be worth the trade.

    Last year i had Broughton at the start (Doh) sideways traded to Enright (rd 3) then upgraded to Broughton later in the year (got my money back) and smashed everyone in my league with his massive scores. I’ll do it again this year if i have too. No one picks the perfect team at the start of the year. Not even The Hoypoloys!

    Im interested to know if you dont have Swan, whos your lock for Captain until you get him? I hate picking the wrong Captain… It kills your ranking and your season. .

  • Wait a minute… has Swan actually said he is going to Arizona again this year???

  • I know how bad an idea it is to not have Swan…BUT i can’t help thinking what if in round 2 or 3 he somehow gets held to 80 odd…he will drop about 50-60k in round 3 and further in round 4…a big call i know but if i can pick him up in say round 6 for 100k less i’ll be happy!

    • Thats exactly what everyone was saying last year hahahaha

    • How do you plan on being able to afford to “pick him up” in Round 6?

      • Just get Gary, get swanny when his price falls, he’s bound to have a sub 110 point game

      • I’ll find the money, thats not a problem…i sound like someone with a drug habit hahaha. By not having Swan and having a rookie instead at the moment i have 16 keepers in my starting team, and that looks sooooo good right now…i have SMJ so no captian problems.

    • good luck getting Swan at a sub-500k price in 2012! It is a must for me to have either Pendles or Swan and in the end I think Swan will score more

  • Swannie is in my team and will not be leaving it.
    Im happy having Swan. A easy go to captain.

  • Mid season upgrade for me. He didn’t have the greatest of starts last year and it looks to be the same this year. Pendles is my number 1 atm.

    • WHAT he did have a great start last year???
      are you kidding yourself?
      RD 1 – 137
      RD 2 – 162
      RD 3 – 116
      RD 4 – 131
      RD 5 – 104

      • Burn

      • Problem is, most people aren’t planning to upgrade to him at round 5/6.
        His next 5 or so games weren’t so impressive as stated in the article, which meant that if you upgraded to Swannie after the mid-season trip you were killing it.

        To me it’s a coinflip between him and Jelwood as to who gets the start.
        The other will be an upgrade target.

        • From memory he had a groin or quad issue that dogged him after about R5 or 6 until he went to Arizona which accounted for his scoring dip.
          Locked and loaded for me.

    • You might just want to check that start last year, ScoreGasm. I remember it differently. It was blistering

    • Awkward for you

  • Like many of us, I make several changes each week to my team.
    Swan is one of the players that’s been there from the beginning. He shall remain, barring the unthinkable…….LTI.

  • Everytime an article comes up with swan. I keep thinking why the f am I not picking him?? Why have I got pendles he’s no swan! Had him last year and loved life, so why not this year? He is now going in instead of pendles and I’m leaving him. Hopefully.

  • Simply he gets more points than anyone else….until proven otherwise,..end of discussion for me!

  • What if you look at it like this…

    Swan = $598,300… If you take say Nicky Dal instead at $512,400 you save $85,900… But lose 20-odd points…

    If you use that $85k to pick say a Buddy Franklin over a Giansiracusa… Or a Cox over a Mumford, theoretically, won’t that mean you gain your 20 points back???!!!! Possibly more?

    I don’t think it’s that big of an issue whether you start him or not…

  • If the scenario in the article occurs then you would leave Swan until after the break. If this scenario occurs then his price will be at least $70K cheaper. But what are the chances of that happening?

    Chances are he could score a few 130’s before the break – take 2 games off and still be worth about $580K by round 14. It is now more than half way through the season and you still don’t have Swan in your team.

    Is this a risk worth taking to save $70K? Not for me!

    Although in saying this – I do like the Pendlebury and Boyd combo

  • is anyone else at least slightly worried that pendles performance will be affected this year? there gonna be a lot of rumours swirling and media attention come mid season as to whether he is goin to GWS… swan def the better option of the 2 me thinks

    • How did SMJ go at the Cats when the GCS rumours were circulating?

      Smashed it from memory

  • Swan’s going to be 50k cheaper after 5-6 rounds anyway simply based on the magic number. If you manage to keep a cool 100k or so in the kitty, you’ll be able to get a quick upgrade out of the way for one or two of your rookies who plateau because of a bad week/injury/dropped etc.

    • That’s an interesting idea actually. Pick up a mid-pricer who you think will jump out of the blocks in the first six or seven rounds and then make a premature upgrade when Swan is slightly cheaper.

      • Might be a waste of money though, considering you could probably buy a keeper in another position for the same amount of money.

      • Just start Lenny Hayes and rd 13 bring in Swan, could be less than 100K difference in price. I dont think hayes will be a top 6 MID come seasons end but I am considering this, as my mids 6 mids will be complete with all Guns at Rd 13. Noice

        • Spot on what I’m doing. Trade Lenny in rd 13 for Swan for a fraction of the difference they are now in price!

    • That’s right Muffin. That is why I have gone with Boyd Gablett and Pendles. Swan will be my first upgrade for a r12 bye player, hopefully by round to 7 to upgrade. Second in line will be Selwood or whoever else steps up to the mark after the bye.

    • The magic number should have nothing to do with selecting premiums as every premium will drop if they maintain the same average due to the magic number

  • Far too overpriced for my liking! Even if he maintains his current average, he’ll still drop in price! And lets not forget his guaranteed stint on the sidelines when he heads up to Arizona, that’s a loss of 240 right there. Are you willing to let a rookie fill his spot to only score 60 & 50? I’m certainly not

    • How did you figure 240?

      He’ll miss one week anyway through the bye round so everyone will take a hit (if they have Pendles or Swan). Then takes another week off for Arizona – the damage is at best 1 week.

      If your rookie scores a respectable 60 then you’ll only miss about 60-70 points for that week he’s in the US.

      • Did I miss something? Has Swan already come out and said he has booked his mid season ticket for Arizona already.

        If I remember last year he was carrying an injury niggle into the middle of the season and went to Arizona to ‘freshen up’.

        Is everyone assuming that he is still carrying an injury and is going to need the midseason trip again.

        As far as I know he is tickety boo and I see no reason why he shouldn’t sail through the season smashing out massive scores all the way.

        • Yeah, I agree is a very durable player and barely missed a game for years before Arizona

        • His form after Arizona was great, happy to carry for an extra week. Will be starting for me.

  • Staggering to see so may coaches not starting with Swan. He’s always my first one picked.

  • Some peoples reasons behind not picking him are simply baffling!
    He’s the best by a mile! I am baffled…

  • Looking at the stats – Swan missed round 12 & 13 last year with Rd 13 being the bye. Pendlebury score 104 in Rd 12 playing against Melbourne. Looks like it’s not a real issue. I’ll stick with Swan thanks

  • A simple question with Swan or any other player that you hope to get cheaper at a later time – is 1 trade worth $50,000?

    • Not so simple when with Swan I can start 4 Premium Mids but without him I can start 5

  • I think Pendles being 23/24 yrs of age will only get better whereas Swanny, a proven gun granted, is reaching an age of plateauing (he’s even put a 3 yr deadline on his retirement). Pendles sounds like a more logical choice. I’ve always been a Swan man and have never had Pendles in my team but I’m changing my opinion this yr. I finished last yr ave over 2100 so I’m not just some random giving shitty advice!

  • Get Thompson for first 3-5 rounds… He plays easy sides and by then swan would have fallen in price (Hopefully) … Thats my stradegy…