Versus – Round 1: Robinson v Martin

With the generous bestowal of MID/FWD DPP in 2012, these two gents will be among the most popular forward line options for coaches. Effectively having an additional midfielder sitting in your forward line; this appears to be a recipe for success for coaches in the upcoming season.

Poised at a similar price with high potential, Robbo and Martin may well be fighting it out in your team for that all important DPP spot. Many will opt for both; or may be considering others like Sidebottom, Beams, Fyfe or Zaharakis. However, it is my belief that these two offer the most upside in what will hopefully be a great year for both young players.

Mitch Robinson

Price: $456,200
Position: MID/FWD
Bye round: 13
Age: 22

2011 Details
Avg: 92.2
Games played: 21
High Score: 141
Low Score: 39 (sub affected)
No. 100 + scores: 8

Dustin Martin

Price: $442,500
Position: MID/FWD
Bye round: 13
Age: 20

2011 Details
Avg: 89.5
Games played: 22
High Score: 141
Low Score: 59
No. 100 + scores: 7

Scoring Potential

In 2011, both players showed they have a similar high ceiling of 141 and are capable of dominating games with their physicality and their ability to accumulate possessions. Robinson had a mixed start to the year, scoring 2 x hundreds and bottoming out during his season turning 39 against Geelong in round 9. From there he scored 6 tons and averaged 99.3 from round 10 to the Blues Semi-Final loss to West Coast. Martin had a slightly different year, starting off in a blaze of glory with scores of 98, 94, 113, 141 and 119 in the first 6 rounds. Whilst he had a slight lull in the latter half of the year, he finished off strongly with 3 consecutive scores above 90. Even with his sub affected 39 against Geelong, Robinson had a better year scoring wise and takes the edge here – however expect his counterpart to surge ahead in 2012.

Durability

Due to both players being quite young and only coming into their 4th and 3rd seasons respectively, it is difficult to confirm any real durability; however it is worth noting that Robinson played in all but 1 of Carlton’s games in 2011, with Martin not missing a single one – chalking up 22 games to go with his 21 in his debut season. Both players have promise to become very durable and are fit enough to run out a whole season. However if I had to choose, I’d say Martin has the edge here as he’s played 43 out of a possible 44 games in his first 2 seasons showing that he won’t likely miss a game in 2012. There is also the risk that Robinson may be suspended or injured due to his kamikaze playing style and hard at it approach.

Value

As two midfielders able to be chosen in the forward line, both players represent great value as they head into (what should be) their true ‘breakout’ years. With both capable of; and expected to average between 95 and 105, we can safely pick either of the two knowing it’s unlikely they’ll be this cheap again. I’d say Martin presents more value than Robinson as he should get more opportunities in his team; whilst I’m expecting him to turn out a higher average for 2012.

Health/Fitness

Word out of Carlton is that Mitch Robinson has returned from the break stronger and fitter than ever; and is set for an even bigger year after last year’s 2nd half breakout. Martin has also come back fitter, however is looking leaner than last year – whilst also adding some more muscle to his frame. Expect both boys to make a bigger impact on the AFL stage this year with another year under their belts. It’s also handy to note that Martin is streets ahead of where he was last year; so with a better fitness platform coming into 2012, he will be ready to make a lasting impact from the get go.

Team Draw

Carlton appear to have the better draw in 2012, with the only troublesome games in the opening half of the year a clash with Collingwood in round 3; and back to back away games against Geelong and West Coast in rounds 11 + 12. Robinson should also end the year well, playing Brisbane, Essendon, Gold Coast and St Kilda for the DT finals.  Richmond has a slightly worrying opening to the year, having to play all 8 finalists from 2011 in the first 10 rounds. Expect Martin to still get plenty of the ball; however at times he may struggle in a team that is still improving. Like his opposite number here, he has a great finish to the year; playing Brisbane, the Bulldogs, Freo, Essendon and Port in his final 5 games for the year.

Conclusion

Whilst Robinson appears to be a great option with his DPP, value and expected increase in output for 2012; Martin can be considered the safer pick out of the two. Playing against the best of 2011 so early will give him a chance to really step up and prove himself on the big stage. With a good price and plenty of upside, Dustin Martin will be among the most picked players in 2012. As they share the same bye in what appears to be a dreaded round 13 for coaches; many will be sceptical about picking both in their teams to start with. However barring injury or suspension, expect these two to both be inside the top 10 scoring ‘forwards’ for 2012.

Robinson and Martin: Who will you be picking?

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35 Comments

  • Go Martin

  • great read!
    been tossing up on these two and i’m gonna go robinson i think, worked out that martin averaged low 80’s against the teams he plays up till his bye round (when combined , then divided)
    will definently get martin after his bye, i predict him to be averaging 85-90 till then and will explode in the 2nd half of the year and finish the year averaging 95ish

  • Love the “Versus” idea… Hope it continues for other players!

    Maybe…
    Selwood v Murphy
    Zaha v Beams
    Broughton v Adcock (Flashback matchup!)

  • sidebottom, robinson or cloke???

    Who are the best 2

  • IS Zaha Injured??????

  • Souchers be quiet

  • Is there something wrong???

  • No neck Robbo for me, Martin’s fade out last year worries me. Plus Robbo has another year under the belt and surrounded by arguably the best midfield in the league.

    • He’s missing C4 & C5

      • Martin’s fade out i could have predicted would have happened at the start of the season. came back unfit to pre-season and spent a lot of it catching up to everyone else, keep in mind it was only his second year.

        Perfect candidate for a break out year. 3rd year, fitter, leaner, stronger and improved football wise out of site from this time last year. to think hes going to ‘break out’ from an average to 90 already is pretty scary, hes an absolute jet.

        That said im getting both

  • Hey McRath, this is great – just what we needed after so many great cards to choose from in the DoDT.

    Some others I’d be really interested in, would be:

    A section on the relevance of the bye to each one would be good as well.

    • [Sorry, didn’t mean to do that. Anyway, try again…]

      Hey McRath, this is great – just what we needed after so many great cards to choose from in the DoDT.

      Some others I’d be really interested in, would be:
      – Sloane vs Shuey
      – Berger vs Mumford
      – Waters vs Grimes
      – Horsley vs Stevens
      – Houli vs Broughton
      – Goddard vs Lids (I know I should have both, but can’t do it with my structure)
      – Walsh vs Folau (yeah, I know, I won’t choose either, but I’ve been really curious about who will go better)

      And from the same team:
      – Swan vs Pendles
      – Rockliff vs Redden
      – Caddy vs Prestia
      – Porplyzia vs Callinan

      A section on the relevance (if any) of the bye to each one would be good as well. Eg. can you choose both or does the bye make it nearly impossible (eg. Rd11 bye for Red/Rock).

      • J.Alba vs Candice Swanpoel
        M.Kerr vs J.Hawkins
        Adriana Lima vs Natalie Velez
        Olivia Wilde vs Olivia Munn
        ScarlettJohannsen vs Kate Beckinsale
        Taylor Swift vs Avril Lavigne (forgive me!)
        Jenna Jameson(circa 1999) vs Megan Fox (circa 2008)

        • Answers to above:

          J.Alba
          M.Kerr
          Adriana Lima
          Olivia Wilde
          Kate Beckinsale
          Taylor Swift
          Jenna Jameson(cause she loves it any way you like)

  • Well Robinson v Martin maybe fall within 20 – 30 points of each other
    Whilst Richmond fall 50 – 100 points short of Carlton

  • No decision for me – I have both locked in!

  • No room for Carlton scum in my side.

    Martin will dominate Robinson and average about 10 more.

  • They will average fairly similar outputs but Martin does present better value for your buck.

    Interested in comments on Ziebell vs. Dangerfield for a smokie MID/FWD option. Not sure I see them scoring 95+ avg this year but could be interesting and would love to take a gamble on one of them ;)

  • Great Article.. Thanks.

    Have both at the minute but like Robbo more as doesn’t seem to receive the attention that Martin does and think that this works in his favour. See Martin as more of a burst player…absolute jet don’t get me wrong and when he puts it all together lookout!

    On a side note i reckon Cotchin could be this years Rocklifffe…but dont have the cajones to pick him.

  • Great article! Robinson, Martin and Riewoldt (nick) fighting it out for two spots, already got Franklin locked.

  • Robbo for me. Playing in a better side and better draw early.

  • Got both and can’t see that changing much before the start of the season. Both are primed for really big seasons. Great article!!!

  • Nice write up McRath … I currently have both of these guys in my team, although Round 13 is looking like it is going to hurt.

    I have also received this link reviewing DT potential of some of the Crows Players … Not sure if this is the proper forum, but I thought it would be of interest to my fellow DT’ers :-) http://www.afc.com.au/news/newsarticle/tabid/4417/newsid/128257/default.aspx

    • Well picked up Champ – I’d be interested to see whether every club will be doing this.

  • Currently have Marting in my mids with Beams, Fyfe and Zaha in the fwd’s… However it seems to be pretty much the consensus not to have any Mid/Fwd’s in the mids… Why?

  • Although I have had Martin locked in my team all pre-season, these stats worry me:

    First 12 games- 96.6
    Last 10 games- 80.9

    16 point difference in the 2nd half of the season is not what you want from a potential break-out player and correct me if I’m wrong but his lack of form later in the season was due decreased midfield time. His 2nd half average might have been worse if it had not been helped by playing a few sub par teams:

    His only 90+ games in 2nd half: GC (95), MEL (92), ADL (104), NM (91)
    The rest were mostly in the 60s.

    With that said, Dustin should average 100+, right? Right? RIGHT?!!!

  • martin gets tagged too much.
    and I don’t like him, he thinks he’s better than he actually is.
    don’t be blinded by the potential of a player.