Deck of Dream Team 2012: Reece Conca

Name: Reece Conca
Club: Richmond Tigers
Position: Defender
Assistant Coach 2012 Price: $274,100
Bye Round: 13
2011 Average: 55.41
2011 Games Played: 17
Predicted Average: 75

Why should I pick him?

Reece Conca could be a bit of a smoky for your Dream Team backline in 2012. He is priced at and average of only 55 points, but has shown he will be capable of a much higher average in 2012. Going into his second season, Conca played 17 out of the first 18 games for the Tigers in his debut year before a leg injury kept him out for the final 4 rounds (note: he was omitted for Round 15). The number 6 draft pick was rated highly at Punt Road to play from Round 1 and was given a pretty good chance to make an impact.

As a junior, Conca collected plenty of the ball playing as a midfielder gathering around 20 disposals at the under 16 and under 18 championships – averaging 73 DT points in the U18 carnival. He was also playing senior WAFL football the year before being drafted. While not being an absolute DT jet, he can accumulate and in my opinion, is capable of being a consistent 70+ scorer at AFL level.

The reason for this is that from Round 4-9, Conca went through an awesome Dream Team scoring patch. 87, 70, 77, 83, 80 and 99 points were racked up over that 6 week period at an average of 82.66. This in itself demonstrates plenty of potential. We must take into account his average of 55 from 17 games includes 4 games where he was used as a substitute bringing his average down. Round 3 vs Hawks (30 points – subbed off in 3rd), Round 14 vs Demons (27 points – subbed off in 3rd), Round 17 vs Suns (50 points – subbed on in 3rd) and Round 20 vs Eagles (8 points – subbed on in 3rd).

If he was listed as a midfielder, you wouldn’t touch him… but now that he has been named purely as a defender for the 2012 DT season, then we can find some value. There have been countless articles about players getting midfield time, and Conca had his back on December 4 in the Herald Sun.

Changes are also planned for the midfield, with Conca – likened by the Richmond coach to a young Marc Murphy – to get his chance on the ball next year. He will be joined by dual best and fairest Deledio, set to be released from his role at halfback thanks to the recruitment of quality kicks like Ellis, Morris, Dea and Houli.

That’s all pretty positive. I think no matter which way we look at him, he’s a bargain priced at only 55.

Why shouldn’t I pick him?

It’s a bit of a gamble going with Conca and you’ve got to be realistic with what to expect from him. An average, as I have predicted, of 75 would rank him in the top 30 defenders. Is this enough for that price? Is he too expensive to use as a mid-priced player to upgrade in this world of guns and rookies?

Ok… you’re not picking him as a keeper, but we need to keep in mind the spread of players for the byes. The Tigers have theirs in the horrific Round 13 bye round. You’ve got your St Kilda, Carlton and Hawthorn guys to think about there. But maybe Round 13 would be a great time to upgrade Conca? Hmm.

Will he suffer from some second year blues? Will he really get much midfield time with Cotchin, Deledio, Martin, Foley, et al? Could he find himself with a green or red vest a bit? A lot of questions here that we can’t answer now, but we have the whole NAB Cup to look at him and his role.

Deck of DT Rating.

JACK – Reece Conca is awkwardly priced, but without a doubt a bargain. I have no qualms that he will average 70+… maybe 75-80 which gives him a 20 point per game improvement on 2011. When I threw it out there on Twitter about him, Glenn Luff (big dog down at Champion Data) responded he’ll play mid this year. Will produce good numbers as a defender. #geton“. So in that case, I am going to ‘get on’ and hopefully look like a genius when he tears it up!

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30 Comments

  • He does present value, but I might struggle to fit him in. Will have to watch NAB cup form and see if there is player that can be squeezed out.

    you said 2 defenders from the tigers. Assume Connors for next one?

    • lids has featured in the deck already, cheers for the great write up warnie, not for me though unless he blitz’s NAB

  • Shares the bye with Goddard Delidio Fisher and Morris, awkward to fit him in. Will wait and see.

    • 12 rounds til the bye which if he plays every game is 10 price movements before the bye and then trade him out as he will have scored well and made cash.

      Byes are only a concern if you don’t have a good trade strategy sorted. They will hurt, but hurt everyone else too

  • Pretty unlikely. Wasn’t he playing back pocket last year? Pretty full midfield. Tigers NAB Cup form also carries a caveat too: once Astbury, twice shy!

    • Gonna agree strongly there. Got burnt bad by him and yet some circles are still considering him!

      • I got burned by Astbury last year too (he started out at $200k).

        However, this year he’s under $100k. You’d think he would play if fit, so even averaging 50 pts he might be nice low-end cash cow.

  • He’s in the same bracket as Suban and Grimes for me (5th defender) and right now Suban is ahead based on potential – although could change depending on how Lyon uses him.
    Conca has value but I want mid pricers who will keepers this year – burnt too many trades last year with my MP’s

  • I’ve got fond memories of Conca….

    Thursday night, Round 1 2011
    Reece Conca had been in my team all preseason; then only minutes before lockout, for no apparent reason, I panic-traded him for Curnow. 2nd best trade of the year.
    (Best was Astbury -> Suckling in Rd 3 when Suckling was priced at $250k; don’t ask why I had Astbury)

  • Good write up warnie and a good choice for the deck. Unless he kills it in the NAB cup (100+ scores) it’s gonna be a no from me as i will most likely be taking a punt on grimes.

  • Is Richmond going to give it a go this year or are they still in the latter stages of their thirty-year rebuilding plan? As a young high draft pick, if he pokes around in the midfield and does enough to get his 70-80 DT points, he should see out most games to get experience without being vested and even if he does get the vest, he shouldn’t be on a paltry 30-40 points anyway. If he gets a spot in my current team, he’s almost a certainty to have to be traded in his bye week. That’s not necessarily a bad thing. Everyone will have to recycle players to keep bye week nuts to 2 which means rooks that exceed expectations and mid-pricers that actually do something close to what you thought they could do will have to be moved on.

  • Great Write up Warnie, I’ve had Conca in my fanplanner team for a long time and he’s gonna stay there! will most likely trade him out in round 13 tho.

  • Do not forget in 2011 Conca did not have a full pre-season due to ankle surgery.

    “Conca started his pre-season in Richmond’s rehab group, after ankle surgery late last season, but expects to start full training next week, when the players return from their Christmas break.”

    http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/reece-conca-out-to-conquer-in-the-midfield/story-e6frf9jf-1225983185727

    With a full pre-season and midfield (wing) his DT scoring potential for the price is great value.

    Connors and Conca would be going for the same spot on the list.

    Connors will be basically playing for Coburg unless injury strikes.

  • bette off picking a rookie who will average the same

    • Avg means nothing if your not playing every week.

      • And if you’re going for a league win, one or two extra nuts is neither here nor there in the bye weeks, but if you’re going for overall, you need your rooks/mid-pricers to play precisely when you need them or you’ll be burning extra trades or falling behind.

  • these picks make or break your season……

    gotta get them right~! i’ll wait to see in the NAB but havent ruled him out.

  • Is it wise to use Richmond players as cash cows, considering they play every single one of last year’s finalists in the first ten rounds?

  • Cheers for the write up Warnie.

    I love the Deck but there is no freaking way that I am on this guy.

    I acknowledge that the change or role, and his upside, could make him a valuable Cow. But, last time I went to market $274,000 was too much.

    If he becomes a Milking cow that you want to hold onto at $274,000, then he is a great buy. But what are the chances? Sweeeeeeeet @#$% all.

    God Heppell was good last year wasn’t he? And Marin. Loved those guys.

    • If Lake is fit I’d rather have a go at him.

      • Good call GJB – i’m all for picking midpricers that will become viable keepers in 2012. I think if he’s fit and depending on his role, Suban offers more upside than Conca and Lake do…

    • I have grimes, lake and conca atm! Think I need help lol ;)

      Seriously though, if he was a mid at that price then it is a big no from me but a defender who will play every game for 75 is actually good value

  • Conca, Lake or Suban..Lake is injured preseason..dont like the omen. The ball should be down Richmonds backline enough I suppose..but Suban beckons for some reason. Any support for him?

  • will he be a DPP?

  • Any suggestions would be greatly appreciated, I am not sure about Conca and a few of the rookies

    Cash left $12,400

    DEF: Goddard, Delidio, Suckling, Heppell, Clarke, Conca, Ellis (Mohr, Morris)

    MID: Ablett, Swan, Selwood, Barlow, Shiel, Mcdonald (Treloar, Miles)

    RUC: Cox, Sandilands (Stephenson, Giles)

    FWD: Franklin, S Johnson, Cloke, Martin, Saad, Zorko, Cameron (Walsh, Rowe)