Deck of Dream Team 2012: Jack Grimes

Jack Grimes should come with a free First Aid Kit if you select him

Name: Jack Grimes
Club: Melbourne Demons
Position: Defender
Assistant Coach 2012 Price: $329,400
Bye Round: 12
2011 Average: 74
2011 Games Played: 6
Predicted Average: 85

Why shouldn’t I pick him?

I’m going to start with the negatives because it was the first thing you thought when you clicked on this article! Injuries.

Jack Grimes is probably on a lot of coaches’ never again list after the injuries he has sustained over his four year career. A groin in his first year (1 game), a hip in his second year (11 games), a hamstring injury in his third year (14 games) and then his broken foot in his fourth year (6 games). So that injury history isn’t pretty. There were so many people saying “I told you so” last year when he broke his foot and fools like me selected him. So, yes… he is massively injury prone, but the broken foot was a ‘freak’ injury – hopefully he is over his soft tissue stuff.

Why should I pick him?

There is no doubt that Jack Grimes has heaps of fantasy potential. In his second season, he averaged a massive 89 points per game and back that up in 2010 with an 81.9 average. Last season he broke his foot against Adelaide in Round 7 early in the game while on only 6 points. Prior to that his first 6 scores consisted of scores of 104, 86, 62, 99 and 86. I, like many others, was pumped with his start and for his price, was a great pick.

So anyway, Grimesy has Dream Team written all over him. He scored 109 in his second game ever and is consistently racks up 20+ possessions each game. With the byes as they are this year – sharing with Collingwood, Essendon, Fremantle, Geelong and Sydney – there is merit in going with Grimes as most of the ‘big guns’ share the Round 13 bye. A big bonus when using the Assistant Coach Team Picker is scrolling down to his name and seeing him there with other dudes who averaged 66 last season. With his nice little 10% discount, we can see that there is value there on top of his already modest average from last season that was cut by that 6 points.

Grimes is what we would call Melbourne’s ‘quarter-back’. He is responsible for most of the clearances out of the back-50 for the Dees and for what has been great for us Dream Team coaches, he often takes kickouts and kicks them to himself. Boom! Easy +3’s baby! We all know this is what he is about and he’ll be definitely one of the highest possession defenders in the competition, providing he stays fit.

He is doing all of the pre-season training from all reports and Jade Rawlings (backline coach) said this: “I’ve been very pleased with Jack’s progress. He has genuine presence among the backline group and has had a good pre-Christmas.” That’s gotta be positive?!

Deck of DT Rating. QUEEN – There is the obvious injury risk with picking Jack Grimes. He hasn’t played more than 14 games in a season in his 4 years at AFL level, but with the risk in picking him is the reward. Being priced at an average of 66 is well below his capabilities, and in reality, well below what he will average in 2012. An average of anything over 80 will be a win in picking him (if he stays fit), but I’m banking on Grimesy averaging up towards the high 80s and hope that others are scared off by his injury history.

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  • Once bitten, twice shy. Pass. Guy can’t stay on the park.

  • Oh Warnie, not again? It would be like picking Julia Gillard or Kylie Sandilands.

  • loved the photo of Grimes – sums it up perfectly and have been stung the last three years :(

    That being said…… I will keep looking at Grimes and is in the team at the moment as DEF 5. One of the returning/value DEF this year to consider along with Lake and Waters to keep a close eye on I think.

  • Was locked and loaded since day one of the offseason. Is my number 5 backman and if cash cows not only make money but points he can be covered from injury.

  • I will take the punt that grimesy won’t break his foot again! Trust me this guy will bust out some big nab scores and be in plenty of teams.

  • great write up warnie :) i will be risking grimesy if all goes well for the remainder of pre season

  • Back lineups will be very interesting this year, hopefully a lot of variation. Along with Grimes, there are 7 other players who averaged over 80 in 2010 but are priced between $300K-$350K this year: Duffield, Johncock, Gilbert, Waters, Malceski, A Selwood, Gilbee. Only Gilbert has the R13 bye.

    Duffield (role), Gilbert (guilt/role), Waters (injury) and Selwood (???) are the ones that also interest me. Still not sure what happened to Selwood last year. Heard reports of him looking disinterested, there were rumours about GWS. Before the season he was touted as going into the midfield, and had come off two seasons averaging 90.

    I’d ruled Grimes out, but forgot that last year’s injury was not another soft tissue….going to have to consider him again……that said, he still hasn’t completed a full season.

    • I thought it was illegal to mention Duffield!

    • A Selwood was pushed out of the midfield last season and played as a small defender. Don’t expect his average to improve back to pre-2011 levels again.

  • Absolute lock for me, he is almost certainly going to average more and is at a nice discount. dont worry about injuries, i’m takin the risk on this guy

  • I was looking at him but then at a similar price i notice shaun burgoyne as he is dpp i was wondering if hes worth the punt over grimes.

  • Thanks Warnie,

    I’ve been burned by Grimes but the scars have healed and chicks dig scars. Compared to what Fluffield did to me, Grimes still has some kudos. If Grimes is priced at 66 it is going to be very hard not to go for him.

    Still, I am on the same wavelength as Bilby, there is a lot of backs that have played better than they did in 11, and are looking to bounce back.

    I think I am going to be content with just changing my team every freaking day for now!

  • Good write up Warnie!
    I’m taking the risk with him.
    Locked :)

  • Last year was different and with Gibbs no longer im backline grimes just could be the perfect smokey…..

    On the other hand Beau Waters looks like another good prospect to..

  • If he strung together a full season in his career I’d have a punt I don’t wanna waste a trade or 2 on him again. Pass

  • At the moment I’ve got Lake in my team, don’t really wanna have both Lake and Grimes so gotta decide who’s a better option. Will Lake be in the deck at all???????

  • injury prone is one thing but,FOOT INJURY!! now that is a worry, a freak yes but its done now and iv seen too many people really struggle with feet,and some never get it right again,and r always missing games
    plus sharing the bye with other gun teams is a bad thing i would of thought,dt slut for sure and i had him last yr ,but really risky now have to watch pre season

    • Yeah, one thing I was going to mention in the article was the severity of foot injuries… eg. Egan. But Petrie came back like a demon this year when there was the worry that he could be “Egan-like”.

  • At the moment Noooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo. If he kicks butt in the NAB he has a 10% chance of making my team.

  • At this stage, Im going with Grimes for 2 reasons:
    1. Im limiting myself to 1 injury prone player and priced at 66 is too good to refuse.
    2. looking at the 2012 DT backs that averaged over 80 in 2011 (and youd therefore consider to be keepers) I cant see many that arent
    – 30 or close to it, so expecting them to maintain or increase their average is usually an optomistic expectation (eg Scotland, Enright, Fisher, Guerra, Bock)
    – unproven (Suckling, Heppel, Houli, Hanley)
    – injury prone (Adcock, Butler)
    – inconsistent (DT wise) (Carrazzo, Shaw).
    So id rather spend my money in another position, especially the fwd line which has a lot of players most would consider midfielders.

    • Scotland played the 2010 season aged 29 and turned 30 during the season,played the full 22 games and averaged 93.1 He then played 2011 aged 30 had his birthday during the season again, played 22 games and averaged 99.7 – not bad for a 31 year old.

      Enright about a year younger was also very good managed 21 games in 2010 ave 91.8 and in 2011 “only” managed 20 games yet a consistent 91.9

      I can see your point but using these two guys as examples doesn’t quite stack up especially considering they are both in the top 3 for backs for 2011. Sure they could break down anytime soon, so could any other player.

      • I knew id cop flack for including those 2 DT champions but the fact is that players at their age almost never maintain / increase their average. And the way I see it (im no expert and i can predict the future only as well as most radio, newspaper and tv commentators who almost always get it wrong):
        – enright is 30 and increased his average by 0.1 in the premiership team. you cant expect him to maintain his average in 2012 at that age .
        – Scotland is 31. how many 31 year olds maintain their average?
        Unless they get injured, these 2 players will almost certainly be keepers, but im just saying I dont think you will get value for money if you start your team with them, and I reckon there is too much value in the fwd line this year to ignore.

        • Fair enough mate and I doubt either will line up for me come Rd 1 however if they manage to be hovering around that 90 ave mark next year I’m sure 1 or maybe even both will become upgrade targets

  • Good article Warnie, Grimes is about a 60% chance of making my team. NAB cup form will tell.

  • Loved the fact you had, “why shouldn’t I pick him,” first!
    If I considered Grimesy for my backline, I’d have to consider Higgins for my fwd line- No Effen Way!!!

    • Yeah, loved the reverse structure to the write up. Many thanks again, Warnie, even though you have turned Tormentor putting Grimes in the DoDT. I know last year’s injury wasn’t soft-tissue, but as was said above, I am reminded I don’t like foot injuries – it all just rings more alarm bells from my ‘Never-Again-List’. So, despite your tempting offer, I have just looked at the NAL again, seen one ‘Jack Grimes’ right near the top (just after Missy actually Eepo), and remembered this is why I wrote the NAL – just for the days when people Torment me with such tempting offerings. How could you do this to us Warnie?!? I expected more of someone who has shepherded us through so many DT pitfalls! :0)

  • Some other defender options: pearce hanley, nick suban, reece conca, dyson heppell. All midpriced with room for improvement thoughts?

  • Had him last season and I’ll be going back there again :D

  • Does anyone else put a line through a player, then change their mind when they read a DoDT article. I am such a sheep!

    Nice write up, Warnie!

  • my cats name is jack grimes, this lad is 100% pencilled in my team

  • “Good Times Grimes” – Locked, he is a mainstay-linebacker if not broken…

    Worth a short term risk for an upgrade later on