Get Off The Bench: Round 18

So this week we have pretty much all our premiums available for play as well as the majority of our bench guys.  The only players that should be in your side from Port Adelaide are Ben Jacobs and Matthew Lobbe and they can safely be placed on the bench to let your premium come out to play.  However, I do know some teams who have Kane Cornes, Robbie Gray or Travis Boak in them.  So those teams will need to bring someone in, but unless your favourite player is one of those guys (like my son who has #18 on the back of his guernsey) you probably won’t have them in your side.  This should be a time for us to rejoice as we don’t have to make the tough decisions…. or is it?  With so many options will probably come even more choices that need to be made unless your team has 22 ultra premiums in it (like Roy’s).

Given the number of guys available this week, I am mainly going to focus on the key ones that the majority of players will have.  If you have the lesser lights then feel free to discuss them in the comments.

Matt Suckling is our only real surprising out that will cause problems this week.  Luckily he is in the backs where we have plenty of options.

I’d bet on these guys… (just not you players that read this ok!)

Andy Otten has returned well.  He had one lower scoring game and that was against Geelong, so we can let him off for that.  His 76 last week showed he is still playing well and I expect him to do a good job against St Kilda.   Just watch out to see if Johncock is a late withdrawal, if so, he should increase his scoring by about 25 I reckon.  Matthew Wright bounced back from his Red22 with an 86 last week which included a couple of goals I believe.  He is certainly one of the young Crows that is taking his chance, he scored 60 against them last time in his 2nd game. 

Patrick Karnezis has now put together 3 solid games in the 60’s so you would hope that this form should continue.  This will be his first trip to Etihad and to Melbourne so be wary, but I think he should still do ok.  (He scored a red54 in Perth).  Sam Sheldon (son of the great Ken apparently) has had one bad score in his last 4 with the regular ones being 60’s.  I like his form, but I think this week you will all have strong enough midfields not to worry about him, but he would be a worthy emergency.

Nick Duigan has tailed off a bit lately and it doesn’t get any easier with them up against the Bombers this week.  He has had 65 and 50 since his return from injury which worries me a bit.  I would be prepared to give him one more go.  He scored 93 in their drawn game back in round 4.  Also in that game was Ed Curnow and a nice 90 points.  Now he only scored 40 last week in his first game back after having 3 off.  So I would be hesitant normally, but given that was against Collingwood (even though he raised the bat last time against them) I might let him off, it was a tough game to come back to.  Play Ed if you need to but I think you should have better options to allow him another week to find his form.

Many people thought Andrew Krakouer was done and wouldn’t score well anymore, but his last two have been 79 and 83, and with them playing Gaz and the boys up at Metricon, I reckon he should go nuts.

Crameri and Heppell are two guys that held up their end of the bargain with 81 and 83 last week.  Both of these guys are worthy of a spot on the field, but if you have both, go Heppell, he got 90 in this game last time to Crameri’s 55.  Whilst on guys that we can’t get enough of at the moment, Nick Lower come on down!  After being traded out of many teams over the last few weeks (Roy, you wouldn’t do that would you?) with scores in the 60’s and 70’s and being told in the comments to this article last week that he won’t score well against Sydney, he proved everyone wrong with a brilliant 130 which got a lot of those teams that held him over the line for a league win last week.  In the Derby in round 8 he racked up a redvested 42 which doesn’t hold out much for this week, but he hadn’t been as consistent nor playing in the midfield at the time so a much better score is on the cards this time against the Eagles.

On the Dockers, The Gu kept his solid form line just afloat with 61pts.  Not what we are used to from him, but a good game in poor second half conditions at the SCG.  He didn’t play against the Eagles last time but I think he will be back to his normal 70’s + in this game.  Allen Christensen is about the only guy from Geelong that should be considered.  He has had 109, 56, 73 and 120 in the last 4 and is really showing some solid form.  With the Cats up against the Tigers I can’t see him slipping below 80 this week.

Right… The Gold Coast have Collingwood this week so we don’t know how their scoring will be affected as they haven’t played yet, but I would expect a dip from most of their guys.  The ones that are worthy of a place on the park include Sam Iles who had had a treat last 6 weeks, Trent McKenzie who is on fire since he was rested 4 weeks ago, Danny Stanley who is super consistent along with David Swallow whilst Zac Smith is getting back to some form, but may struggle against Jolly.  Dion Prestia seems to be getting it togetehr with74 and 92 in the last couple, but he is another that I expect to drop down by about 25 or so against Collingwood.

I don’t think I need to sell you guys on Savage, I Smith, Bailey, Hale, Breust  and Puopolo.  All of these guys are getting it done for us each week with their recent scores being in the high 60’s to mid 80’s.  Against the Demons who are coming off a trip to Darwin I expect all of these guys to bust out of the blocks for big scores.  For the Dee’s Stefan Martin is the only guy in this category that I would pay any attention to as he is been over 92 in his last 4 games now.

Simon Buckley returns for the Pies this week after a week or two off.  He is up at Metricon and should do really well, but I am very concerned that he will cop a vest this week.  Play him with caution!

Cam Pedersen is now a very solid option.  He has only had one poor game in his last 5 and up against the Lions without Browny up forward, he should do very nicely.  One bloke I wasn’t keen on recently was Jake Batchelor and I warned a few people off of him, but his last 4 have only produced one score under 70.  Not bad for a fill in guy which is what he should be for your team.

 

These guys are likey to come 3rd in those annoying No Third Dividend races!

Daniel Talia came in and has had his second game now and has a 59 and 76 to his name and appears to be solid, I want to see one more outing though before I would put any faith in him.  Note that Brodie Smith came back last week and copped the Green as suspected, he had 13pts.  

Roy’s boy Keeffe is another that I would stay away from at the moment, his 53 on debut was ok, but a red 33 last week spells trouble for me.

On the Gold Coast front the one  guy that has been giving some of us nightmares with his inconsistency and poor form is Tom Lynch.  Most of us picked this guy up after his two scores in the 90’s in his first tow games.  Since then he hasn’t looked like it apart from one outing of 86 where most of us had him on the bench after the red18 the week before.

A lot of people ask me about Jeremy Howe.  I just dn’t trust him at the moment, and the fact he copped the vest in Darwin makes me trust him even less.

C Rich has got another game, but be careful as he hasn’t played for a while.

Conca got himself a vest last week and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him get another one this week.  I would not play him still until he gets a run of good games and stays unvested.  Ty Vickery had a poor one after his 95 the previous week, so his consistency is struggling again.

Alex Johnson is ok, but he has been hanging out in the 50’s over the last few weeks with a 66 last week.  There are better options out there.

Luke Parker is someone that a few people may have brought in as a downgrade.  He has had 107 and 73 in the last few weeks.  However, he is worth a mention, but that is it.

Andy Gaff  Wow, I put you all off him last week and I left him on the pine too (if you tell me you played him you are either lying or have a shit team), but he had a great game with a 104, I just wish Woosha let him play a lot more this year.  Jack Darling has really come to a screaming halt this year with his last game being a vest.  And the last two weeks have been 48 and 36.

Luke Dahlhaus has been good of late, but he is not scoring high enough to play.

 

Plenty of choices this week and plenty of ways to stuff up!  Trust me I will find a way to do it!!  Here are the rankings.  Things I have taken into account are Pies playing Gold Coast, Hawks playing Melbourne and Freo and West Coast are in the Derby.  Catch ya during the week on Twitter @pkd73

Defenders

  1. Puopolo
  2. Heppell
  3. Stanley
  4. Lower
  5. Duigan
  6. Martin
  7. Batchelor
  8. Pedersen
  9. Buckley

 Midfielders

  1. Krakouer
  2. Savage
  3. I Smith
  4. Heppell
  5. Swallow
  6. Iles
  7. Crameri
  8. Mzungu
  9. Curnow
  10. McKenzie
  11. Christensen
  12. Wright
  13. Sheldon
  14. Prestia
  15. Buckley

Rucks

  1. Smith
  2. Hale
  3. Bailey
  4. Vickery
  5. Vardy

Forwards

  1. Krakouer
  2. I Smith
  3. Mzungu
  4. Breust
  5. Hale
  6. A Johnson
  7. Karnezis
  8. Lynch
  9. Prestia
  10. Howe
  11. Talia

Now if you need to go more than about 2 positions down in my list, you are in trouble….. catch ya next week.

 

141 Comments

  • going against the ranking after last weeks scores
    lower on, heppell on the pine

    • Hibberd not playing, injured still or form? Time to go to Talia I think? Little thin in backs with Suckling out and Shaw still to be swapped (next week). Will play Talia (over Toy 3rd def reserve) and will be my main weak point.

      • Mate your best bet would be to change SHaw into Talia. Hibbered may come and play again… Shaw is gone.

        1. you get more cash
        2.you still have Hibbered and he can be bench cover
        3. if something major happens you have more cash to use to fix it.

  • Good one Dunny.

    I have to decide between Stanley, Poo and Lower on the field. Averages say Stanley, you say Poo and last week says Lower. I’m confused and perplexed.

    • P.S. Jolly is out.

    • I’d go Stanley even though he’s playing the pies. He’s been consistently scoring around 90ish and is playing at home. Lower also has tough comp against WC and despite his 130 last week, thats been a 1 off so far this year. The poo has the easiest draw but doesn’t match stanley and lower for recent form. So Stanley, Lower , poo in that order IMO

      • Big call to go Stanley playing the Pies, most teams struggle to score against them!!!

  • i need to decide on who i play out of n.voldt and rioli. thoughts?

    • personally id go cyril against the DEES but thats a great problem to have!

    • This thread is about rookies you might want to play on the field, however Rioli coming off a bye against Melbourne may do well.

      • Rioli’s also coming off an injury though…

        I’ve always thought of this as about who you’ll leave on your bench and who gets a game. That’s usually about rooks and so that’s what the article focuses on, but I would’ve thought comments such as the one above are entirely appropriate for this thread.

        • Exactly timb, it is appropriate. Last time I checked David hales not a rookie but he is on the list. It’s about who to start out of the blokes who are bench players. Clearly not guna list premiums cos it’s obvious

    • I’ve got a similar problem. I’m playing Riewoldt since the Saints play at docklands where Nick averages 100.7 this year with a minimum of 85 last round. Surprising really, considering how ordinary his year’s been. Turns out all his crap games were elsewhere.

      My issue is Isaac Smith or Rioli. Normally Rioli would be easily ahead, but I think he’ll probably stay in the forward pocket in his first game back and is a strong contender for the red vest this week (assuming there are no injuries). Am I being stupid even considering Smith?

      • The normal DT rule is always play your premium. That why I am putting up with Adcock on the field and one of Stanley/Lower/Poo on the bench.

      • thanks timb. good advice there. nick needs to stand up tonight and he’s due

        my eliminator opponent has riewoldt but not rioli.. if the big fella has a blinder it would really set me back, but if he stuffs it up then we’re both evens.

        still some major question marks over cyril.

        i also have i.smith, gu and iles on the bench but agreed with the comments about “play your premiums”

        • Cheers, guys. I absolutely agree that normally you always play your premium. I think I will follow that rule this week also (especially after a couple of lesser performances from smith), but, as you said, a few question marks over rioli, which make it a little tempting to ignore that rule this week. Smith is probably a contender for the green anyway, I suppose… so Rioli it is. Being a Melbourne fan, I kind of hope both play poorly…

  • Cheers Dunny, becoming ever more important these articles! My issue this week is in the backs and who gets left out. One must go : Heppell – Lower – Addcock ??? Im thinking heppell

    • I tend not to think about Heppell anymore and leave him as permanent sixth back. He has shown his consistency and is unlikely to be subbed. Adcock is a “premium” and you can only hope he will return to some of his previous good form.

      • cheers mate

      • I’m inclined to agree. Heppell can pump out 100s reasonably consistently (25% thus far), while Adcock should get his best score in awhile this week. Lower tends to be less consistent and only has 1×100 to his name.

        My reasoning for Adcock is that his first game back was against Port, but was his first game back, and his last 2 have been against the Hawks and Geelong. He should find it easier this week; especially since he averages 124 in his last 2 against North (not that I would expect 110+ from him this week). It’s tough leaving a guy who’s just got 130 on the bench, but I think that’s the best choice.

        • Not to mention he is listed in halfback this week, rather than the back pocket where he has been getting those dismal scores of late

  • I have Carazzo…

    Top of the ladder but stil have 6 trades.

    Thinking Birchall – thoughts?

    • I have Carrazoo and Shaw (still to be traded) but unfortunately have only 4 trades left. Im on top of the ladder too with 2 games clear so I’m saving my trades for finals. If i had 6 i would trade him out now. If you have Gibbs or Scottland, you will need to do it in finals anyway. However, if you don’t need the win this week maybe hold off on Birchall, his BE is 143.

      • Thanks

        have 100k in the bank too so not too worried about the BE

        Only have Gibbs – and its 1 vs 2 this week so the win makes the world of difference,,,,

  • Hey guys,

    What do you reckon i can buy anyone for Shaw
    I have just 400k to buy a back when seeling Shaw so i can get anyone but i think i need some cash left over.
    I already have: Deledio,Gibbs,Scottland,Adcock,Stanley,Goddard.
    8 trades.
    Options:

    Broughton

    Fisher

    Birchall

    Enright

    Or even Gram?

    Anyone else.
    Please help!

    • Definitely should be somebody who has no more byes. No point trading for somebody who is going to spend one of the last rounds on the bench. Your first three seem to be the ones.

    • My personal preference of those you listed…
      1. Broughton – best defender currently available going on form and DT output
      2. Birchall – solid choice, good form and might drop in price after this round
      3. Fisher – best value-for-money, might drop a little more in price after this round
      4. Enright – a bit up-and-down this season, finals bye
      5. Gram – high ceiling, but wildly inconsistent this year (as opposed to mildly inconsistent), no

      Uniques you could consider…
      1. Waters – watch for another week, but has the DT scoring history
      2. Martin – surprise package, very consistent this year

      • Anyone think there’s a danger of Fisher’s output dropping from here? Gwilt is out for the season and the Saints may need to have Fisher play a more defensive role from here?

        • I’m worried about the same thing!

          I was hoping the Saints woul recall Jason Blake to step into Gwilt’s role, but they’ve replaced him with Geary this week.

          Because the Saints like to free Fisher up, I guess he should still be alright, but the worry is if a key forward kicks a few on Zac Dawson early, then their only option is to move Fisher on him which would hurt his output.

          I’m still looking at bringing him in, but it certainly casts a little bit of uncertainty that we didn’t need!

          • Glad I’m not the only one!

            I have been convinced that Fisher is the best choice for the last week, but now I’m worried. Like you say, if Dawson is getting towelled up or if the Saints are playing a team with a tall forward line, I reckon they will have to play Fisher as a defensive forward, as they just don’t have anyone else who can do it without Gwilt.

            Ahh, decisions, decisions……I guess I will still get him and hope for the best. He’s that much cheaper than Broughton, who was my other likely pick.

          • Yeah! Hopefully when they play a team like Collingwood, or any other team with 2+ key marking talls, they bring in Blake (who was in the best for the 2s last match, I checked lol), or even the youngster Simpkin (who had been playing as a key defender before he got dropped)

    • Xavier Ellis, his a jet.
      coming back from injury his cheap and without his 23 earlier in the year he would average 90

  • should i play warnock or Z. Smith and J. Riewoldt or Mzungu on the field?

    • Smith with no Jolly could be interesting…

    • Warnock and Mzungu!!!
      Essendon rucks not accountable and playing poorly, Warnock going well recently, averaging about 30 hitouts for the year so that a good way to start!!
      Jack Roo v’s Cats (and seemingly carrying an injury) should be no match for The Gu @ Pattersons.

  • Who would you play out of Nic Nat and Z. Smith?

  • I don’t agree with your defenders rankings – Puopolo over Martin (who I am considering trading in as a premium), Heppell, Stanley, Lower? They all average more and have greater potential for 90+. But we don’t all think the same which is why Dreamteam is so interesting.

    My top 5:

    1 Martin
    2 Heppell
    3 Lower
    4 Stanley
    5 Poo

    • I agree Serenity.

      I am guessing that the Poop is up there as he is a possibility to take Sucklings role of the slutty hawks backman. Based on recent form though, I would have to play Martin, Heppel and Stanely ahead of him. I personally have Heppel, Stanley and Poop – was plannig to upgrade Poop to Suckling this week, maybe I should hang on a week and see?

    • thats the beauty of DT, everyone has different reasoning. Weeks like this are horrid for choosing between Stanley, Lower, Poo and the like. It all comes down to gut instinct and personal preference really. I mean many will be benching Lower after 130 last week. Forms just 1 of many factors to consider. Thats why we love this game. Make the right call against the trend and you rock, bench a guy who goes on and scores 120 and you feel like a moron. Who to choose between I.Smith or Gu is another interesting 1. Luckily I don’t have to make any of these choices this week

      • Exactly! I havent nailed my bench perfectly all year. Not a bad problem to have as it means you have depth. But bloody frustrating. I benched Lower for his 120 against port (dumb move) resulting in a tie in my main league game…..and traded him out last week…..

  • I’ve got a get on the bench question..
    Silly I know, but I have an extra premium mid.. Who do I bench out of…
    Swan(not likely), Boyd, Thompson, Mitchell, ablett, hodge, bartel

  • Hey Dunny, love your work and another great article.

    However, if this is not too much to ask, could you maybe include under performing premiums in your list? By that I mean guys like Adcock and Higgins where I’m not sure to play Heppell and I Smith infront of them. I don’t have him but another one might be J Voldt, I would be very reluctant to play him over Krakouer.

    So would you just stick to the unwritten rule of “always play your premiums” or could you please add guys like this in your list? Thanks

    • I would say play your premiums, that is why you paid top dollar for them. Higgins shouldn’t be considered for this list the way he has been playing, Adcock is certainly eligible, but my biggest problem is… where do I stop? I reckon I cover too many players as it is (certainly takes a fair whack of time to cover just this many). I hear what you are saying though.

  • I’m benching Goodes and playing both Cyril & NVolt. I live in Sydney and it has been raining cats and dogs the past week – tomorrow is no exception.

    Cast your memory back when Blues beats Swans @ SCG, where Goodes only got 47 in the wet.

    Be warned that tomorrow night’s conditions are worse than when the Blues visited!!!!!

  • should I play Isac smith or Jack reiwoldt

  • Would Heppell & Stanley be considered Premium keepers by now?

    • I dont think so, but I would be keeping at least one/both of them as great bench cover. Heppell has the benefit of covering the mids as well, so I think he is the one I would keep. Which leads me to my current issue….

      I have Heppel and Stanley as my final backline position. I rate Heppel just ahead of him this week – given his previous form in big games (and against the Blues). However with doubt still over Pendlebury, I was thinking of playing Stanley and having Heppel as midfield bench cover…. Only problem is that my oponent has Heppel on the ground, so I may be adding an unneccesary point of difference (as I think I have him covered).

      Thoughts??

      • Who are your other Mid cover options?

        You’d spew if Pendles played and Heppel smashes it on the bench!

  • Hey guys,

    I don’t normally ask questions about team selection because I’ve found it’s easier to blame yourself without regrets when things go wrong, but this week is important for me in one of my leagues because I have Suckling out and really need to hang onto my current 4th position.

    I got Shaw and Suckling out and only 2 trades for finals so going to hang onto Shaw until another decent option appears cause I only have $28k in the bank, so no trades for me this week.

    I need to try to get max points out of what I got basically so my question is essentially Z.Smith vs. I.Smith?

    Should I play Petrie in the ruck and I.Smith forward? Or, Z.Smith in the ruck and Petrie forward?

    I know GS have the Pies but Z.Smith up against Wood may score well however as mentioned Hawks against a supposedly tired Dees and we know what I.Smith is capable of but only named on extended bench.

    Thoughts?

    Thoughts?

    • Check final teams tonight. I.Smith may struggle to get a game (as rightly pointed out by Emo Tackler above) given the big names coming back for the Hawks. It may solve your problem if he doesnt get selected.

  • Hey guys,

    Do you think it is worth prolonging getting Sam Fisher for Heath Shaw until next week?
    I understand his BE is fairly high but he may only drop a little in price, so is it worth getting him in this week?

    • depends how much money you have, if you have heaps of trades and cash do it now, but if u have little money and trades wait.

    • Waiting a week also gives you a chance to see how the St K backline is structured in the absence of Gwilt – perhaps Fisher’s role will change, perhaps it won’t. And its not like Shaw is going to change in price anytime soon, so you’ll save a few bucks as well if you hold off. Win-win in my book

  • Hey guys,

    I’m lucky enough to have Rioli as a spare forward. Would anyone play him this week instead of Higgins?

    Cheers

  • got the hard choice of heppell or lower on the field. Which one this week you reckon guys?

    • hard to say as lower is on the interchange… but this could be mind games… i cant see him not getting decent game time from his last week performance… i would pick lower…

  • im going to have 1 donut in my DEF this week cos Hibbered/suckling/howard/shaw are out…

    i have 4 trades left… i can do a straight swap with shaw – fisher… should i do this?

    i am projected to still win this week in league by 500 points…

    • If you are guaranteed a league win, then id wait a week for Fisher to go down in price.

  • Hey guys,

    i have a tough decision this week, bad luck with injuries leaves me with no mid E this week. I can swap Mzungu into the mids with Callinan, giving me an emergency, but this means i have to play darling or richardson.

    1 – Mzungu cover for Pendles, Swan, Ablett – Darling on field

    2 – Mzungu on field over Darling – no cover for mids

    Which one?

  • Would put mzungu into your mids cover with the injury concerns of Pendles and Richardson on field, you will lose about 20 potential points or so by doing so, but it is better than not having bench cover and losing 60-70 points.

    That being said though, Pendles will get as many points in a sub effected game as mzungu would get in a full game anyhow.
    Pretty much wait for the late omissions today, and leave mzungu in your forward line until then (I know I pretty much back flipped from my original proposition).

  • Where is old mate with his Sub predictions, very valuable info, even if they are guesses. Usually pops up about now ;)

  • Dale Thomas just became the latest and greatest addition to my pretty cool midfield.

    Should I pop a big C on him?

    • Depends, overall points or playing someone decent in your league?

      • Playing someone decent, 1st (me) vs 2nd actually and if I don’t win I’ll finish the season 4th.

        • You starting in front or behind them? If you start infront then you are better off picking the #1 guy forcing them to go the less likely captain. If you are behind then you may want to put in a smokie like Thomas or someone different like a MMurphy/Mitchell/Pendles to swing it back if they have big ones.

          Have a very good DT tool that may help anyone with things like this run through excel. Has ave/2w ave/3wk ave/$/games/value/weekly change/overall change/break even/expected increase/decrease/peak rolling average/peak average/$ left to peak/# selections/% uniqueness along with team positions/injuries that will all auto fill when you put your team in. Also has trend analysis, bye highlight and a few other helpful things.

          • Sounds useful Mark but what do you mean by starting in front or behind them?

          • Infront or behind: As in on averages when you put both of your 22 players up against eachother, who is predicted to win. Anything more than about 30 points either way is significant.

          • He averages about 25ppg more than me.

          • Averages per game are deceptive this year with multi byes and single byes. I know people who have chosen a heap of Freo/Bris/etc multi bye players and dont even bother to update their squad on multi bye rounds. Therefore, their weekly ave will be down and misrepresented. Only way to do it properly is to grab their team and do their best 22 yourself.

          • True, he will beat me unless I get Birchall, Deledio or Martin as he doesn’t have Suckling and I do.

            Not sure which one to get thought:(

          • Against their respective opponents this weekend:

            Last 4:

            Deledio – 111 (Skilled), 111 (Skilled), 101 (Edihad), 89 (MCG)
            Birchall – 86 (MCG), 98 (MCG), 106 (MCG), 84 (MCG)
            Martin – 66 (MCG), 53 (MCG – 2009)

          • Cheers Mark.

            I’ll still be finishing top 4 so thinking not only about this week but finals aswell.

            Birchall’s Round 24 against GC is swaying me. If only deledio had a crap score last week it wouldn’t be so hard.

          • Screw it, I’ve decided don’t care if I lose this week.

            Gonna finish top 4 anyway and I’d rather have another few weeks worth of information.

    • i think thomas will be the highest scored player this week… if i had him the C would be on him…

  • Hmm who to leave on the bench in my midfield… Bartel, Hodge or Dal Santo? None of them should have particularly difficult games.

    • Midfield premium overload hey?

      • It was irresistable, Swallow was my first bench cover and I traded him to Bartel gaining 20 grand and a premium bench cover instead of a rookie bench cover. And has finals bye doesn’t matter since he is cover.

        But yes, now I have the tough choice of which premium to bench. Possibly even Boyd this week.

  • Due to my DPP between FWD/RCK and MID/FWD my only bench decision comes down to Mzungu v ZSmith.

    Mzungu is in the open fields of Patterson. His three games there have been 108, 79 and 85. Not too shabby.

    ZSmith is coming up against a dud ruck combo of CWood and the guy with lots of double letters in his name. Below are the ruckman scores when Jolly does not play (did them quick but think they are right).

    R4 Richmond Tigers – Graham 103
    R6 Western Bulldogs – Minson 104
    R8 Geelong Cats – Ottens 78
    R9 Adelaide Crows – Jacobs 88
    R10 West Coast Eagles – Cox 113
    R11 St Kilda – McEvoy 139
    R12 Melbourne – Gawn 54
    R14 Sydney Swans – Seaby 102

    Undecided ….. thoughts?

    • Personally I would go Mzungu, notwithstanding the good record of ruckmen v the Pies – would just be too concerned the Gold Coast will be pumped so badly the ball will spend most of the time in the Pies forward 50, which won’t suit Zac.

      Tough call though

  • As we reach the pointy end of the season, I think more and more people will have to decide not just which rookies to play, but which premiums to play, if they have managed to get one premo on the bench as cover for byes etc.

    Particularly people who got say a Montagna or Bartel cheap for that purpose.

    I have an extra premium mid so have to choose who to bench out of:

    Pendlebury (vest?), S.Thompson, Boyd, Montagna, Mitchell.

    Have Ablett and Swan too but definitely playing them, Swan as captain.

    Thoughts?

    • I have a similar problem with Bartel, Dal Santo or Hodge. Though it might be an easy choice if Pendle doesn’t end up playing, still in doubt apparently.

      I’d say Montagna probably looks the weakest out of them, but as pointed out before Boyd will be playing on a very very wet SCG. It goes against my gut to bench him, but he may be the best bench.

      • Your decision is probably even more difficult – this might help:

        Bartel last 3 v Richmond: 96, 125, 93
        Dal Santo last 3 v Crows: 117, 121, 126
        Hodge last 3 v Melb: 92, 142, 75

        on that basis, probably out of Bartel and Hodge as to who to bench – Bartel more consistent, Hodge higher ceiling maybe?

        • Thanks for that, yeah I am probably leaning more towards Bartel. Though in my league, my next opponent has a similar midfield (no premo cover if Pendle goes out) so I could roll the dice and drop Boyd in the wet vs Sydney, then hope my Bartel outscores his Boyd. Boyd scored 134 last time vs Sydney in Canberra, but I seem to recall he doesn’t like wet weather games much.

          • now you have ME thinking about benching Boyd!

            Of course, when Pendles pulls out this will all be moot.

          • Be careful, I’m having trouble finding stats but I think Boyd got a pretty big score last year at SCG so he likes the Swans. Only problem is the heavy rain they are apparently having.
            I almost hope Pendlebury is out now to make this easy, and give me an edge over my opponent. Hodge vs a tired Melbourne from Darwin has big potential, Dal Santo is coming into form and likes Adelaide, Bartel doesn’t mind a bit of Richmond. Having said that, it points me more to leaving Boyd out of the rain… Roll of the dice to decide I think.

            From your choices I’d definitely keep Mitchall and Pendle if he plays, but 50/50 on the others. I don’t think Pendle will get the sub, if there is any kind of doubt they will just rest him completely.

  • Does anyone have any idea when knights will be back?

  • This Shaw to anyone other than Broughton trade is impossible. The question I’m asking is whether I let Puopolo sit on the field for a week and go to Suckling next week or go to S.Martin this week?

    • Depends how badly you need a win this week – if you need the win, go for S. Martin (I’d probably go S. Fisher), if you can get through this week, go Suckling next week – are we sure he is only out for one week though?

      • Hold off on Fisher and see what Gwilt being out means for him.

        • Agree with Albert, would wait on Fisher if you have the luxury, but depends on if you absolutely have to trade this week chasing a win to make top 4/top 8.

          If you are waiting a week though and can afford Suckling, would go him over Fisher anyway.

    • Puopolo will be fine this week, you don’t need a premium in his place.

  • I know this isn’t trade talk but:

    Pav or Fyfe in?

    Knights or Curnow out?

    • Knights out coz he is a usless POS.

      Other is a tough call, teams are going to start tagging Fyfe pretty damn soon if they haven’t already.

      He does have a tank as big as his hands though so might not worry him.

      Maybe go Petterd?

      • Yeah, you’re right on Knights. I’m a Crows supported so have a soft spot for him. Particularly given that Neil Craig should give him a run in the middle. The guys a ball magnet and gets clearances when he rarely gets put there.

        I hear you on Petterd as a unique, but am really nervous about his first half a dozen rounds. Also agree on Fyfe potentially drawing the tab. Pav seems to be warming up for finals (not just DT finals, but finals/finals).

        • Swans said they tried to rotate the taggers on Fyfe last week with Bird, jack ect

          The guy just keeps getting the ball, 20 of his 30 possessions were contested. I would back Fyfe over Pav as a player and as a DT player at the moment.

          I’d trade curnow. At least knights has potential to be a 7th fwd. I would not want to be relying on curnow as a 6th mid atm, he hasn’t scored the same since he came back from injury

          • Knights isn’t even getting a game though?

          • true, I got rid of him a few weeks back so you’re probably right.

            I just had the view that it was more of an injury than getting dropped and he was close to a return. however he is listed as the emg so I may be wrong. I just find it hard to believe he is not in their best 22 especially when they are struggling so bad.

            So Albert is probably right, Knights out / fyfe in

          • Yeah he’s not on the injury list so it’s def an omission

          • Thanks guys. Bit the bullet and went Pav for Knights. Curnow is my 7th mid atm and only need him to cover Boyd next week (or week after – can’t remember when their bye is).

            Other premo mids have had the bye (and have 5 trades for LTI’s) but will use one next week to kill Heater (have Lower, Heppell and Stanley as cover in defence so wanted to solve my forward issue first).

          • And before you give me rubbish for trading before final teams, I’m out for beers tonight after work.

          • no DT app on your iPhone?

            ;)

          • Actually, yes. But would ruin my uber cool image to stand in the pub and work on my DT.

          • Just excuse yourself, go to the toilet and make the trade that you’re probably going to do.

            Not that hard.

          • hehe hard

  • Who plays Duffy or Lower???

  • InVestment Outlook:
    Predicted Green Vests for Round 18– 2 options per team:

    St.Kilda – Geary or Armitage,
    Adelaide – Petrenko or Symes,
    North – Tarrant or Warren,
    Brisbane – Hawksley or Buchanan,
    Sydney – Parker or Jetta,
    Bulldogs – Djerrkura or Hooper,
    GC Suns – Liddy or Krakouer,
    Collingwood – Keeffe or McCarthy,
    Essendon – Colyer or Davey,
    Carlton – Tuohy or Armfield,
    Geelong – Menzel or Cowan,
    Richmond – Farmer or Webberley,
    Melbourne – Maric or Howe,
    Hawthorn – Breust or Smith,
    Fremantle – Suban or Pitt,
    WC Eagles – Ebert or Hams,
    Port – Lobbe or Jacobs,
    Masterchef – Dani or Ellie,
    DT Talk – Calvin or Calvin.

    Form Guide:
    – For 22 man squads – last week only 50% success rate, with 65% average over last 4 rounds.
    – For 25 man squads – last week 50% success rate, with 46% average over last 4 rounds (these are more difficult because often my picks get cut when the squad is reduced to 22).
    – For teams with Byes – 0% success rate, still problems, investigating possible use of chaos theory.

    Criteria – Success if one of my 2 picks is named the Sub, or more importantly the 20 (or 23) players I didn’t pick are not named the Sub.
    Excluded – Teams that name a late inclusion player as the Sub are not counted as either a success or fail, there have been 4 of these over the last 4 rounds.

  • Dunny, can I see your reasoning why Poo is at the top ?
    Also, will Isaac score more than Zac this week ???

    • Sure, Sucking out leaves a stack of possessions on the table in the back line and they are playing Melbourne who are coming back from Darwin and traditionally teams perform very poorly after returning from Darwin.

      Zac may score more now that Jolly is out.

  • Any advice on what i should do with Didak? thought for sure he would be back this week but hes not. in all three leagues i sit comfortable in the top 4, my best second, have 6 trades left but dont want to trade too much before finals. is there anyone worth getting for Dids or stick with him?

    • Need to know the make up of your team to decide that.

      ie, What is your best 22 going into week 1 of finals.

      • my forward is my weakest it is Franklin, jack riewoldt, nick riewoldt, o keefe, darling, kraks, sylvia and then theres didak got 42 000 in the bank.

  • If Pendles is a late withdrawal should I have Mzungu or Swallow as my emergency?

  • guys, 6 trades left, only just sitting in 8th, need to win my last two games, prepared to make 2 more upgrades before finals.

    desperately need some help/opinions on what to do.

    Gibbs, Deledio, Goddard, Heppell, Adcock, Lower, Otten (Puopolo, Thompson, Talia)

    Boyd, Pendlebury, Ablett, Bartel, Swan, Thompson (Bewick, Jacobs, Mzungu)

    Petrie, ZacSmith (Sandilands, Keefe)

    Okeefe, Fyfe, Pavlich, Sylvia, Franklin, Riewoldt, Higgins (Krakouer, Richardson, Callinan)

    I’ve got $184,600 free. I would love to bring in Fisher and Broughton this week for Otten, Puopolo, but I’m about 50k short on that. Now I think Otten needs to go for a premium defender, but, is there any point me upgrading another defender and taking either Adcock/Lower off the field given their scoring abilities?

    Will Sandi be back before DT finals start? Will he be posting big scores, or should my second upgrade be to bring in Cox instead?

    Please give me your recommendations!!!

    • Broughton has an astronomical price, and questionable security in terms of his position on the field at Freo. If you wait a week, you would be able to afford bringing in Fisher and Birchall for Otten and Puopolo. Otten should do well, with Johncock likely being restricted because of his injury last week. Puopolo should also get a decent score with Suckling gone this week, and he will likely shoulder more of the workload in Hawthorn’s back line. As for Sandi, there’s no point getting rid of him now that you’ve held him for so long. His price will drop, and his first few scores may be mediocre, but with any luck he will punch out some decent performances during the DT finals.

      • I’m tempted to grab Broughton even though I think he is a little expensive… He is predicted to raise in price this week with a fairly low BE.

        Fisher and Birchall is the cheaper option, leaving some money left. Might not make a huge difference in the averages.

        • who is most likely to drop 10k or more, fisher or birchall? I really want to bring one of them in this week to make sure i win this round. I need one of them to drop 10k next round though in order to get them. Im thinking Birchall is the safest to drop more as he has two below par scores in a row, meaning he could drop a bit more the following week if he didnt drop enough this round?

          • I think Fisher is more likely to drop a bit more actually. Birchall only predicted by a few thousand, Fisher 10k.

          • damn, I went Fisher IN! Puopolo will become Birchall anyway, so Puopolo will hopefully rise a few k this round. Birchall has a BE of 140+ as well this week so should be fairly safe

  • I don’t see how Lower could be lower (see what I did there) than Stanley given last week’s score, he’s playing at home and Stan is up against the Four and Twenties.

  • Who looks best to hit the starting 22 this week out of Prestia, Mzungu or I.Smith ??
    Hawks always score well but Prestia is having a purple patch (could be gone this week though with the pies)
    Any thoughts ???